Post by Robert Waller on Aug 14, 2023 17:38:34 GMT
There are some parts of rural England that offer plenty of evidence, even if they have not been popular holiday and second home ‘destinations’ such as the Cotswolds, as to why it is such a conservative country – and now, indeed Conservative, outside the big cities. This applies to the north western quadrant of Hampshire: soft rolling chalky hills, douce river valleys such as that of the Test, with its fly fishing, and small towns and attractive villages with names like Hurstbourne Tarrant and Penton Bellinger. This neck of the woods has become better known and more visited over the last decade or so because it also includes the main location of the popular series Downton Abbey, set in the Yorkshire of around a century ago, but actually filmed here, at Highclere Castle.
However, the demographic statistics show that this does not tell the whole story of the constituency of North West Hampshire. Since its creation in 1983, the constituency has been made up of some rural parts of the western half of Basingstoke and Deane borough, and the northern part of the Test Valley, centred on the town of Andover. Andover was one of the communities chosen to expand to take in London overspill in the post-war years, and in the two decades after 1961 the population of this once sleepy town doubled. The proportion of council houses trebled in the 1960s. Clearly there was a potential Labour vote in the newer northern half of Andover, but it never really materialised. It would seem that an ‘environmental effect’ meant that the migrant voters attuned more to the political traditions of their new surroundings than their origins. Andover’s population then stabilized, remaining at around 50,000 including the whole of its built up area since 1981, and a substantial amount of the council housing was sold off.
Nevertheless, by the time of the 2021 census the percentage housing in NW Hampshire in the social rented sector was still above average, as was the (admittedly still small) proportion of Black residents, and the age profile is perhaps not what would be expected if the seat really were overwhelmingly rural, with a lower than average number of pensioners. This is not a seat of particularly high educational qualifications – the 34.0% with degrees at the last available census is slightly below the south eastern regional average, those with no qualifications very close to that average, and it is in bottom decile for full time students. Nor is it in the top 100 for professional and managerial occupations. But none of these factors would have hurt the Tories in the circumstances of 2019, and as outlined above this is a very conservative part of the land, and with good reason. Health is good, ethnic homogeneity very high indeed for the South East region, unemployment low, social strife rare.
Labour did move up to second here ahead of the Liberal Democrats for the first time in 2001, but never really challenged for the lead, remaining 12,009 behind. That is the narrowest lead the Tories have had in the 21st century, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and also UKIP (in 2015) taking turns to finish a distant second. Then in 2019 the Conservative share remained exactly stable, at a very comfortable 62.1% as in 2017. However there was a swing of nearly eight per cent from Labour (down 7.7%) to Liberal Democrat (up 7.8%). This may owe something to a ‘Corbyn effect’ and to attitude to Brexit, although NW Hampshire is estimated to have voted about 55% Leave to 45% Remain in 2016. In any case Kit Malthouse increased his majority still further to 26,308, both because of the split nature of the opposition and to the inherent Conservative strength.
In local elections the Conservatives won every division within the constituency easily in May 2021, including all those in Andover town. In May 2023 in the most recent borough council elections, rather unusually, both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats increase their strength on Test Valley district council by between them wiping out the localist Andover Alliance, who had won seven seats in some urban wards in 2019, then fell apart through internal strife and did not put forward any candidates four years later. Most of the Liberal Democrat strength remains at the southern end of the borough in the Romsey & Southampton North constituency, though they did gain two from the Tories in Andover Harroway (the north west quadrant) and one in Andover Romans (north east). The Conservatives returned 12 councillors in Andover wards, though, as well as all those in the villages. In the most recent council elections in the wards within Basingstoke and Deane, the Conservatives lost to the Liberal Democrats in 2023 in both Tadley wards and an Independent in the ward of Whitchurch, Overton & Laverstoke. Labour and the Green representation is nowhere to be seen on Test alley council at all or in the part of Basingstoke & Deane either in the seat now or proposed to be at the next general election.
In December 2019 the electorate of the seats was 83,000, oversized for the quota applied by the latest Boundary Commission, some rural wards west of Andover, such as Anna, Bellinger and Charlton & The Pentons, are to be transferred to Romsey & Southampton North, the last named somewhat controversially in the inquiry process as Charlton is really part of the Andover built up area. In exchange slightly smaller additions to ensure that the whole of Tadley, the second largest community in the seat, is to be included here, along with Sherborne St John and Rooksdown, territory now in Basingstoke and NE Hampshire. This in effect will move the geographical centre of gravity on the constituency eastwards. The demographics become a little more urbanised and less up-market, but the estimates of the estimable Pete Whitehead suggest the Conservative lead over the Liberal Democrats would only have been slightly smaller in 2109 on the new boundaries. NW Hampshire is highly likely to remain one of the most solid Conservative strongholds in the whole of England.
There was a ward allocated to the North West Hampshire constituency under its first three sets of boundaries called Alamein. This is because the village of Enham just north of Andover was the site of a recovery centre for wounded soldiers after the Great War, and the name of the key North African battle was appended to create Enham Alamein after World War Two. Alamein ward’s last contest in 2015, before ward revisions, was not a close run thing, with the Conservatives taking all three of its seats with over twice the share of any other party. This pattern is replicated in the parliamentary battle in NW Hampshire.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 17.4% 361/575
Owner occupied 67.6% 242/575
Private rented 14.6% 454/575
Social rented 17.7% 205/575
White 91.8% 265/575
Black 1.6% 258/575
Asian 3.7% 308/575
Managerial & professional 39.6% 119/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.0% 340/575
Degree level 34.0% 233/575
No qualifications 14.1% 464/575
Students 4.3% 530/575
General Election 2019: North West Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kit Malthouse 36,591 62.1 0.0
Liberal Democrats Luigi Gregori 10,283 17.5 +7.8
Labour Liz Bell 9,327 15.8 -7.7
Green Lance Mitchell 2,717 4.6 +2.3
C Majority 26,308 44.6 +6.0
2019 general election electorate 83,083
Turnout 58,918 70.9 -1.3
Conservative hold
Swing 3.9 C to LD
New Boundaries
The new North West Hampshire seat will consist of
80.3% of North West Hampshire
5.8% of Basingstoke
5.7% of North East Hampshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_346_North%20West%20Hampshire_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
However, the demographic statistics show that this does not tell the whole story of the constituency of North West Hampshire. Since its creation in 1983, the constituency has been made up of some rural parts of the western half of Basingstoke and Deane borough, and the northern part of the Test Valley, centred on the town of Andover. Andover was one of the communities chosen to expand to take in London overspill in the post-war years, and in the two decades after 1961 the population of this once sleepy town doubled. The proportion of council houses trebled in the 1960s. Clearly there was a potential Labour vote in the newer northern half of Andover, but it never really materialised. It would seem that an ‘environmental effect’ meant that the migrant voters attuned more to the political traditions of their new surroundings than their origins. Andover’s population then stabilized, remaining at around 50,000 including the whole of its built up area since 1981, and a substantial amount of the council housing was sold off.
Nevertheless, by the time of the 2021 census the percentage housing in NW Hampshire in the social rented sector was still above average, as was the (admittedly still small) proportion of Black residents, and the age profile is perhaps not what would be expected if the seat really were overwhelmingly rural, with a lower than average number of pensioners. This is not a seat of particularly high educational qualifications – the 34.0% with degrees at the last available census is slightly below the south eastern regional average, those with no qualifications very close to that average, and it is in bottom decile for full time students. Nor is it in the top 100 for professional and managerial occupations. But none of these factors would have hurt the Tories in the circumstances of 2019, and as outlined above this is a very conservative part of the land, and with good reason. Health is good, ethnic homogeneity very high indeed for the South East region, unemployment low, social strife rare.
Labour did move up to second here ahead of the Liberal Democrats for the first time in 2001, but never really challenged for the lead, remaining 12,009 behind. That is the narrowest lead the Tories have had in the 21st century, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and also UKIP (in 2015) taking turns to finish a distant second. Then in 2019 the Conservative share remained exactly stable, at a very comfortable 62.1% as in 2017. However there was a swing of nearly eight per cent from Labour (down 7.7%) to Liberal Democrat (up 7.8%). This may owe something to a ‘Corbyn effect’ and to attitude to Brexit, although NW Hampshire is estimated to have voted about 55% Leave to 45% Remain in 2016. In any case Kit Malthouse increased his majority still further to 26,308, both because of the split nature of the opposition and to the inherent Conservative strength.
In local elections the Conservatives won every division within the constituency easily in May 2021, including all those in Andover town. In May 2023 in the most recent borough council elections, rather unusually, both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats increase their strength on Test Valley district council by between them wiping out the localist Andover Alliance, who had won seven seats in some urban wards in 2019, then fell apart through internal strife and did not put forward any candidates four years later. Most of the Liberal Democrat strength remains at the southern end of the borough in the Romsey & Southampton North constituency, though they did gain two from the Tories in Andover Harroway (the north west quadrant) and one in Andover Romans (north east). The Conservatives returned 12 councillors in Andover wards, though, as well as all those in the villages. In the most recent council elections in the wards within Basingstoke and Deane, the Conservatives lost to the Liberal Democrats in 2023 in both Tadley wards and an Independent in the ward of Whitchurch, Overton & Laverstoke. Labour and the Green representation is nowhere to be seen on Test alley council at all or in the part of Basingstoke & Deane either in the seat now or proposed to be at the next general election.
In December 2019 the electorate of the seats was 83,000, oversized for the quota applied by the latest Boundary Commission, some rural wards west of Andover, such as Anna, Bellinger and Charlton & The Pentons, are to be transferred to Romsey & Southampton North, the last named somewhat controversially in the inquiry process as Charlton is really part of the Andover built up area. In exchange slightly smaller additions to ensure that the whole of Tadley, the second largest community in the seat, is to be included here, along with Sherborne St John and Rooksdown, territory now in Basingstoke and NE Hampshire. This in effect will move the geographical centre of gravity on the constituency eastwards. The demographics become a little more urbanised and less up-market, but the estimates of the estimable Pete Whitehead suggest the Conservative lead over the Liberal Democrats would only have been slightly smaller in 2109 on the new boundaries. NW Hampshire is highly likely to remain one of the most solid Conservative strongholds in the whole of England.
There was a ward allocated to the North West Hampshire constituency under its first three sets of boundaries called Alamein. This is because the village of Enham just north of Andover was the site of a recovery centre for wounded soldiers after the Great War, and the name of the key North African battle was appended to create Enham Alamein after World War Two. Alamein ward’s last contest in 2015, before ward revisions, was not a close run thing, with the Conservatives taking all three of its seats with over twice the share of any other party. This pattern is replicated in the parliamentary battle in NW Hampshire.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 17.4% 361/575
Owner occupied 67.6% 242/575
Private rented 14.6% 454/575
Social rented 17.7% 205/575
White 91.8% 265/575
Black 1.6% 258/575
Asian 3.7% 308/575
Managerial & professional 39.6% 119/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.0% 340/575
Degree level 34.0% 233/575
No qualifications 14.1% 464/575
Students 4.3% 530/575
General Election 2019: North West Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kit Malthouse 36,591 62.1 0.0
Liberal Democrats Luigi Gregori 10,283 17.5 +7.8
Labour Liz Bell 9,327 15.8 -7.7
Green Lance Mitchell 2,717 4.6 +2.3
C Majority 26,308 44.6 +6.0
2019 general election electorate 83,083
Turnout 58,918 70.9 -1.3
Conservative hold
Swing 3.9 C to LD
New Boundaries
The new North West Hampshire seat will consist of
80.3% of North West Hampshire
5.8% of Basingstoke
5.7% of North East Hampshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_346_North%20West%20Hampshire_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 31051 | 60.1% |
| LD | 9544 | 18.5% |
| Lab | 8730 | 16.9% |
| Grn | 2362 | 4.6% |
| Majority | 21507 | 41.6% |