Post by John Chanin on Aug 14, 2023 12:07:03 GMT
The communities that make up Thurrock constituency are a working-class sprawl along the Thames just outside the borders of London, separated by the Rainham marshes, but it has considerable variety. Inland there are three very different areas. To the east is Little Thurrock - mostly owner-occupied and mostly white, but not high status, and this area provides the most Conservative votes. In the centre at Chafford and Stifford, there has a lot of recent private development around the huge shopping mall at Lakeside. There are private tenants here too, as well as owner-occupiers, and this area has the highest proportion of managerial jobs and the highest qualifications in the seat, but is a favoured area for better off ethnic minority households moving out of London, and is less than two-thirds white now. Politically it is marginal. To the west are the two expanded villages of Aveley and South Ockendon, the latter the site of a large post-war GLC housing estate, which is quite isolated, although there is a station on the c2c spur which runs through the District. There are still a lot of council tenants here, and this area was the UKIP stronghold in the constituency.
Alongside the river from west to east are Purfleet, Thurrock proper, Grays and Tilbury. London’s port has moved regularly eastwards, from Purfleet to Tilbury, and most recently to the Thames Gateway at Coryton further down river. The docks traditionally provided much employment here. The lowest bridging point on the Thames is the Thurrock Bridge which complements the Dartford Tunnel and runs across the Purfleet marshes. Just to the east is the tunnel carrying the Channel Tunnel rail link into St Pancras. There are few social housing tenants in the west, but owner-occupation is not high either. There are an awful lot of private tenants - Grays in particular has become a favoured area for exporting London’s homeless families, as one of the few available places where rents are cheap enough to be funded by the Benefits system. Responding to this private landlords have been buying up ex-council houses to rent out to the London boroughs. This area has a large and growing ethnic minority population, both black and asian, and is generally low status. Bottom of the pile though is Tilbury. It is full of council estates, which originally housed the dock workers, has much the lowest managerial jobs and the highest number with minimal qualifications, and also a growing black population. The riverside is Labour voting, although with a large former UKIP, and now Conservative, minority.
Overall this constituency forms a reservoir of mostly low qualified workers for the London job market. It is not on the underground, but the c2c trains run frequently into Fenchurch Street, with connections to the underground in Barking. The ethnic minority population has increased from 18% to 29% in the last 10 years, both from ethnic minority households looking for housing that they can afford to buy within reasonable distance of their work, people priced out of the London rental market, and homeless households exported from the city with little choice in the matter. The borough like the whole of south Essex is a hotbed of non-league football with Aveley the most recent arrival in the National League.
Politically there is a tug in opposite directions. On the one hand the older working-class population like the rest of south Essex has been increasingly deserting the Labour Party, firstly to UKIP and its successor the Thurrock Independents, and more recently to the Conservatives as membership of the European Union became ever more salient. On the other hand the influx of ethnic minorities has brought a new source of Labour support. The constituency has seen some of the closest contests in the country during the last 15 years, with MP Jackie Doyle-Price winning the seat from Labour in 2010 with a majority of less than 100, and holding on by 3 figure margins in the subsequent 2 elections. However in 2019 with no competition from UKIP or the Brexit Party, the Conservatives achieved a sizeable majority. All this is a long way from the large majorities piled up by Labour here in the post-war years, despite the removal of the more Conservative eastern section of the borough in 1983.
Local election results, not to speak of the embarrassing bankruptcy of Conservative controlled Thurrock council, suggested that the seat would return to marginality at the next election, despite the loss of Labour voting Chadwell St Mary ward. But this turned out to be an underestimate as Labour won easily with an enormous 22% swing, similar to the neighbouring Basildon seats, with Reform moving into second place. The new MP is Jennifer Craft, a local and former civil servant, who has a better chance of retaining her seat next time than most of the new Labour MPs.
Census data: Owner-occupied 60% (400/575 in England & Wales), private rented 21% (187th), social rented 19% (169th).
: White 71%(458th), Black 15%(29th), South Asian 6%(167th), Mixed 3%(177th), Other 4%(181st)
: Managerial & professional 32% (459th), Routine & Semi-routine 33% (154th)
: Degree 29% (376th), Minimal qualifications 33% (108th)
: Students 7% (177th), Over 65: 11% (527th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Thurrock
91% of the old Thurrock seat is in the new one, with 9% going to Sth Basildon & E Thurrock.
Alongside the river from west to east are Purfleet, Thurrock proper, Grays and Tilbury. London’s port has moved regularly eastwards, from Purfleet to Tilbury, and most recently to the Thames Gateway at Coryton further down river. The docks traditionally provided much employment here. The lowest bridging point on the Thames is the Thurrock Bridge which complements the Dartford Tunnel and runs across the Purfleet marshes. Just to the east is the tunnel carrying the Channel Tunnel rail link into St Pancras. There are few social housing tenants in the west, but owner-occupation is not high either. There are an awful lot of private tenants - Grays in particular has become a favoured area for exporting London’s homeless families, as one of the few available places where rents are cheap enough to be funded by the Benefits system. Responding to this private landlords have been buying up ex-council houses to rent out to the London boroughs. This area has a large and growing ethnic minority population, both black and asian, and is generally low status. Bottom of the pile though is Tilbury. It is full of council estates, which originally housed the dock workers, has much the lowest managerial jobs and the highest number with minimal qualifications, and also a growing black population. The riverside is Labour voting, although with a large former UKIP, and now Conservative, minority.
Overall this constituency forms a reservoir of mostly low qualified workers for the London job market. It is not on the underground, but the c2c trains run frequently into Fenchurch Street, with connections to the underground in Barking. The ethnic minority population has increased from 18% to 29% in the last 10 years, both from ethnic minority households looking for housing that they can afford to buy within reasonable distance of their work, people priced out of the London rental market, and homeless households exported from the city with little choice in the matter. The borough like the whole of south Essex is a hotbed of non-league football with Aveley the most recent arrival in the National League.
Politically there is a tug in opposite directions. On the one hand the older working-class population like the rest of south Essex has been increasingly deserting the Labour Party, firstly to UKIP and its successor the Thurrock Independents, and more recently to the Conservatives as membership of the European Union became ever more salient. On the other hand the influx of ethnic minorities has brought a new source of Labour support. The constituency has seen some of the closest contests in the country during the last 15 years, with MP Jackie Doyle-Price winning the seat from Labour in 2010 with a majority of less than 100, and holding on by 3 figure margins in the subsequent 2 elections. However in 2019 with no competition from UKIP or the Brexit Party, the Conservatives achieved a sizeable majority. All this is a long way from the large majorities piled up by Labour here in the post-war years, despite the removal of the more Conservative eastern section of the borough in 1983.
Local election results, not to speak of the embarrassing bankruptcy of Conservative controlled Thurrock council, suggested that the seat would return to marginality at the next election, despite the loss of Labour voting Chadwell St Mary ward. But this turned out to be an underestimate as Labour won easily with an enormous 22% swing, similar to the neighbouring Basildon seats, with Reform moving into second place. The new MP is Jennifer Craft, a local and former civil servant, who has a better chance of retaining her seat next time than most of the new Labour MPs.
Census data: Owner-occupied 60% (400/575 in England & Wales), private rented 21% (187th), social rented 19% (169th).
: White 71%(458th), Black 15%(29th), South Asian 6%(167th), Mixed 3%(177th), Other 4%(181st)
: Managerial & professional 32% (459th), Routine & Semi-routine 33% (154th)
: Degree 29% (376th), Minimal qualifications 33% (108th)
: Students 7% (177th), Over 65: 11% (527th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Thurrock
91% of the old Thurrock seat is in the new one, with 9% going to Sth Basildon & E Thurrock.
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Conservative | 19,880 | 39.5 | 27,795 | 58.6 | 26,580 | 59.9 | 8,009 | 21.3 |
| Labour | 19,535 | 38.8 | 16,313 | 34.4 | 14,618 | 33.0 | 16,050 | 42.7 |
| Liberal Democrat | 798 | 1.6 | 1,510 | 3.2 | 1,390 | 3.1 | 1,157 | 3.1 |
| UKIP/Reform | 10,112 | 20.1 | 9,576 | 25.5 | ||||
| Green | 807 | 1.7 | 739 | 1.7 | 1,632 | 4.3 | ||
| Other | 1,042 | 2.2 | 1,042 | 2.4 | 1,134 | 3.0 | ||
| Majority | 345 | 0.7 | 11,482 | 24.2 | 11,962 | 27.0 | -6,474 | -17.2 |