Post by Robert Waller on Aug 14, 2023 11:48:18 GMT
In recent years this constituency has probably been best known for having elected the youngest MP since at least 1832. In the Scottish National Party landslide of May 2015, they made no fewer than 50 gains, bringing into the Commons a very large number of new members ranging from the very able to (as events turned out) the distinctly dubious. But the one who picked up the most publicity was 20 year old Mhairi Black, still an undergraduate at Glasgow University, and she defeated a high profile Labour MP in Douglas Alexander, a former Scottish Secretary. She has subsequently had a lower profile, but after three victories in Paisley & Renfrewshire South she is still one of the five youngest, though she has been succeeded as ‘Baby of the House’ by Nadia Whittome (Labour, Nottingham East). One always wondered how long someone who started so young (and is not in any case committed to the union with Westminster) would wish to remain in her current post, and indeed on 4 July 2023, still only 28 yeas old, she announced that she will not contest the next general election. There is, therefore, a chance (if the next national contest takes place before 12 September 2024) that her entire career in the Commons will fit into her twenties, including three general election victories.
Compared with Paisley and Renfrewshire North (qv), South contains more of the town of Paisley; it is less owner occupied and has more social rented housing; it has fewer professional and managerial workers and more in routine and semi-routine occupations; and it has fewer residents educated to degree level and more with no advanced qualifications. This all adds up to a more working class balance. In political terms, South is even stronger for the SNP, as Mhairi Black secured an overall majority of votes cast in December 2019 – it ranks as the 8th safest SNP seat, North as the 10th. Labour are more clearly in second place here and the Conservatives third, with a lower share than in North. It is more valid to describe South as the successor not only to Paisley South but also to the unified Paisley division – between these Labour had monopolised the Westminster representation for 70 years since 1945. South is also the more similar to the single Paisley seat in the Scottish Parliament, which the SNP retained with a majority of 6,000 (17.3%) in 2021, with virtually no swing to Labour since 2016.
Most of Paisley is included, and most of this seat is Paisley, neither of which is true of ‘Paisley and Renfrewshire North’. Paisley is the fifth largest urban unit in Scotland and the largest town. Historically its economy was dominated by textiles - weaving and thread making. The Paisley pattern and the Paisley shawl became world renowned in the 19th century. Nowadays more employment is provided by health care, with the Royal Alexandra being a major regional hospital, education, as the site of the main campus of the University of the West of Scotland, local government as the headquarters of Renfrewshire, and Glasgow Airport, which is in the neighbouring Paisley & Renfrew North seat.
The first Paisley ward in Renfrewshire council that is entirely within the South seat is ‘Paisley East and Central’. As the name implies, this stretches from the heart of the town, a block bounded by two stations, Paisley Gilmour Street and Paisley Canal, as well in a southeastwards direction, along both sides of the A726 Barrhead road, taking in the neighbourhoods of Blackhall, Dykebar and Accord. The first two of these were originally immediately post war council estates, the last named mainly more modern private. In the most recent elections in May 2022 the SNP took over 45% of the first preference vote, Labour 35%, and the Conservatives only 11%.
The second ward is Paisley Southeast, which would in fact better be named South. It includes the suburbs of Carriagehill, Thornly Park, Potterhill and Glenburn. The first three of these include probably the best residential areas within Paisley itself; Carriagehill is centred on Brodie Park, Thornly Park has some fine granite mansions, and Potterhill inter-war semis; only Glenburn has its origins in local authority housing. Nevertheless, the order of the parties in 2022, and probably in the last general election, is the same as Central & East, though the figures are lower because of the candidature of an incumbent Independent, who actually lost his seat in 2022; two SNP and one Labour were successful.
Paisley Southwest spreads across Lounsdale, Brediland, Staneley as far as Foxbar Road; more mixed terrain, with the former areas largely private and the last a peripheral council estate. Yet again the SNP polled very solidly in 2022, with 46%, ahead of Labour with 26%, and quite exceptionally the Liberal Democrats taking a seat (their only one in the whole of Renfrewshire), albeit with only 14% of first preferences – the faintest of shadows of the strength in Asquith’s former seat that was briefly revived in two parliamentary near misses in the early 1960s.
These are substantial wards – Southwest has nearly 12,000 electors, the other two hover around 9,500. Also nearly 7,000 of Paisley Northwest’s voters and some of Paisley Northeast’s are also currently in the seat under discussion. At present the part of Northwest ward included takes in the western half of the town centre, Priory Park and a salient including St Mirren Park (the football club is named after the patron saint of Paisley, not the beatific actor who portrayed the late Queen). The South seat section of Northeast includes that part of Ralston south of the Glasgow Road. All in all the total Paisley representation at present is over 40,000.
Despite the presence of a large and representative selection of Paisley’s neighbourhoods, there is indeed also a significant ‘South Renfrewshire’ element. This consists of two whole wards and a small part of a third. The key external community is Johnstone (population 16,000), three miles south west of Paisley and itself split by the ward boundaries. By contrast with its larger neighbour, Johnstone has a coal mining and cotton mill tradition and is is Labour’s strongest area within the seat as a whole. For Renfrewshire council elections, Johnstone South is paired with Elderslie, a large village reputed to be the birthplace of William Wallace; but despite that connection with an early Scottish nationalist, the SNP trailed Labour by 40% to over 46% in 2022, a big advance for Labour in the ward since 2017. Labour also gained a seat in Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Lowwood & Lochwinnoch, but both they and the SNP trailed behind an Independent; this is the most rural part of the Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency, extending into the hill country bordering Ayrshire.
Finally, at present the seat includes some very small sections of the Houston, Crosslee and Linwood ward – but these are scheduled to be increased to 7,000 voters in the forthcoming boundary changes, in the form of Brookfield and the whole of Linwood. There are other minor ‘tidying up’ boundary exchanges with the Paisley & Renfrewshire North seat, though Northwest ward remains split and an odd kink keeps the once notorious Ferguslie Park out of the South seat. As predicted in the earlier draft of this entry, the inquiry process, while confirming the actual boundary changes recommended, reversed the original suggestion to to call the redrawn seat just ‘Renfrew South’. Although it has failed to become UK City of Culture or indeed a city at all, Paisley is still one of Scotland’s most significant settlements, and its name is now rightly recognized at the very least in that of this constituency.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 16.9% 309/650
Owner-occupied 59.2% 489/650
Private rented 11.6 % 482/650
Social rented 28.5% 66/650
White 97.4 190/650
Black 0.7% 316/650
Asian 1.5% 408/650
Managerial & professional 27.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.8%
Degree level 22.5% 418/650
No qualifications 29.2% 116/650
Students 8.4% 204/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
General Election 2019: Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Mhairi Black 21,637 50.2 +9.5
Labour Moira Ramage 10,958 25.4 –9.2
Conservative Mark Dougan 7,571 17.6 –1.9
Liberal Democrats Jack Clark 2,918 6.8 +3.6
SNP Majority 10,679 24.8 +18.7
2019 electorate 64,385
Turnout 43,084 66.9 –1.1
SNP hold
Swing 9.4 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
The new Paisley and Renfrewshire South will consist of
94.8 % of Paisley and Renfrewshire South
11.0% of Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/paisley_and_renfrewshire_south.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
Compared with Paisley and Renfrewshire North (qv), South contains more of the town of Paisley; it is less owner occupied and has more social rented housing; it has fewer professional and managerial workers and more in routine and semi-routine occupations; and it has fewer residents educated to degree level and more with no advanced qualifications. This all adds up to a more working class balance. In political terms, South is even stronger for the SNP, as Mhairi Black secured an overall majority of votes cast in December 2019 – it ranks as the 8th safest SNP seat, North as the 10th. Labour are more clearly in second place here and the Conservatives third, with a lower share than in North. It is more valid to describe South as the successor not only to Paisley South but also to the unified Paisley division – between these Labour had monopolised the Westminster representation for 70 years since 1945. South is also the more similar to the single Paisley seat in the Scottish Parliament, which the SNP retained with a majority of 6,000 (17.3%) in 2021, with virtually no swing to Labour since 2016.
Most of Paisley is included, and most of this seat is Paisley, neither of which is true of ‘Paisley and Renfrewshire North’. Paisley is the fifth largest urban unit in Scotland and the largest town. Historically its economy was dominated by textiles - weaving and thread making. The Paisley pattern and the Paisley shawl became world renowned in the 19th century. Nowadays more employment is provided by health care, with the Royal Alexandra being a major regional hospital, education, as the site of the main campus of the University of the West of Scotland, local government as the headquarters of Renfrewshire, and Glasgow Airport, which is in the neighbouring Paisley & Renfrew North seat.
The first Paisley ward in Renfrewshire council that is entirely within the South seat is ‘Paisley East and Central’. As the name implies, this stretches from the heart of the town, a block bounded by two stations, Paisley Gilmour Street and Paisley Canal, as well in a southeastwards direction, along both sides of the A726 Barrhead road, taking in the neighbourhoods of Blackhall, Dykebar and Accord. The first two of these were originally immediately post war council estates, the last named mainly more modern private. In the most recent elections in May 2022 the SNP took over 45% of the first preference vote, Labour 35%, and the Conservatives only 11%.
The second ward is Paisley Southeast, which would in fact better be named South. It includes the suburbs of Carriagehill, Thornly Park, Potterhill and Glenburn. The first three of these include probably the best residential areas within Paisley itself; Carriagehill is centred on Brodie Park, Thornly Park has some fine granite mansions, and Potterhill inter-war semis; only Glenburn has its origins in local authority housing. Nevertheless, the order of the parties in 2022, and probably in the last general election, is the same as Central & East, though the figures are lower because of the candidature of an incumbent Independent, who actually lost his seat in 2022; two SNP and one Labour were successful.
Paisley Southwest spreads across Lounsdale, Brediland, Staneley as far as Foxbar Road; more mixed terrain, with the former areas largely private and the last a peripheral council estate. Yet again the SNP polled very solidly in 2022, with 46%, ahead of Labour with 26%, and quite exceptionally the Liberal Democrats taking a seat (their only one in the whole of Renfrewshire), albeit with only 14% of first preferences – the faintest of shadows of the strength in Asquith’s former seat that was briefly revived in two parliamentary near misses in the early 1960s.
These are substantial wards – Southwest has nearly 12,000 electors, the other two hover around 9,500. Also nearly 7,000 of Paisley Northwest’s voters and some of Paisley Northeast’s are also currently in the seat under discussion. At present the part of Northwest ward included takes in the western half of the town centre, Priory Park and a salient including St Mirren Park (the football club is named after the patron saint of Paisley, not the beatific actor who portrayed the late Queen). The South seat section of Northeast includes that part of Ralston south of the Glasgow Road. All in all the total Paisley representation at present is over 40,000.
Despite the presence of a large and representative selection of Paisley’s neighbourhoods, there is indeed also a significant ‘South Renfrewshire’ element. This consists of two whole wards and a small part of a third. The key external community is Johnstone (population 16,000), three miles south west of Paisley and itself split by the ward boundaries. By contrast with its larger neighbour, Johnstone has a coal mining and cotton mill tradition and is is Labour’s strongest area within the seat as a whole. For Renfrewshire council elections, Johnstone South is paired with Elderslie, a large village reputed to be the birthplace of William Wallace; but despite that connection with an early Scottish nationalist, the SNP trailed Labour by 40% to over 46% in 2022, a big advance for Labour in the ward since 2017. Labour also gained a seat in Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Lowwood & Lochwinnoch, but both they and the SNP trailed behind an Independent; this is the most rural part of the Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency, extending into the hill country bordering Ayrshire.
Finally, at present the seat includes some very small sections of the Houston, Crosslee and Linwood ward – but these are scheduled to be increased to 7,000 voters in the forthcoming boundary changes, in the form of Brookfield and the whole of Linwood. There are other minor ‘tidying up’ boundary exchanges with the Paisley & Renfrewshire North seat, though Northwest ward remains split and an odd kink keeps the once notorious Ferguslie Park out of the South seat. As predicted in the earlier draft of this entry, the inquiry process, while confirming the actual boundary changes recommended, reversed the original suggestion to to call the redrawn seat just ‘Renfrew South’. Although it has failed to become UK City of Culture or indeed a city at all, Paisley is still one of Scotland’s most significant settlements, and its name is now rightly recognized at the very least in that of this constituency.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 16.9% 309/650
Owner-occupied 59.2% 489/650
Private rented 11.6 % 482/650
Social rented 28.5% 66/650
White 97.4 190/650
Black 0.7% 316/650
Asian 1.5% 408/650
Managerial & professional 27.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.8%
Degree level 22.5% 418/650
No qualifications 29.2% 116/650
Students 8.4% 204/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
General Election 2019: Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Mhairi Black 21,637 50.2 +9.5
Labour Moira Ramage 10,958 25.4 –9.2
Conservative Mark Dougan 7,571 17.6 –1.9
Liberal Democrats Jack Clark 2,918 6.8 +3.6
SNP Majority 10,679 24.8 +18.7
2019 electorate 64,385
Turnout 43,084 66.9 –1.1
SNP hold
Swing 9.4 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
The new Paisley and Renfrewshire South will consist of
94.8 % of Paisley and Renfrewshire South
11.0% of Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/paisley_and_renfrewshire_south.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 22933 | 49.8% |
| Lab | 11910 | 25.9% |
| Con | 8366 | 18.2% |
| LD | 2869 | 6.2% |
| | ||
| Majority | 11023 | 23.9% |