South Basildon & East Thurrock
Aug 13, 2023 11:35:27 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 2 more like this
Post by John Chanin on Aug 13, 2023 11:35:27 GMT
This is the latest of the Boundary Commission’s unsatisfactory attempts to draw sensible constituencies in this part of South Essex. Thurrock had grown too large by the late 1970s, and a Billericay seat was recreated in 1983 linking the eastern part of Thurrock District with the commuter towns of Billericay & Wickford - a rather strange shape geographically as it arced around Basildon. In 1997 the linkage was changed to Basildon excluding the eastern end at Pitsea. In 2010 the Boundary Commission had another go, removing central Basildon north of the railway, but adding Pitsea. In the latest changes, as Thurrock has continued to grow, a council tenant ward in Thurrock has been bought in in exchange for a council tenant ward in central Basildon, which will make no political difference.
Basildon provides just under half the electorate here - almost all the town south of the c2c railway line with its fast connections into the city of London from stations at Pitsea, Basildon Central, and Laindon. There are many commuters these days from Basildon. This mostly consists of outlying parts of the New Town, although Kingswood and Lea Chapel South are very much part of central Basildon, with similar working-class and council estate demographics, but only form a small part of the seat. Pitsea in the east is famous as one of the old plotlands, developed independently between the wars by people buying small plots of land for virtually nothing. It borders an extensive area of marshland along the Thames, which separates it from Benfleet and Canvey. This is still an area of council estate with much right to buy, and low occupational and educational status, similar to central Basildon, but is politically more Conservative. 1600 voters in the detached village of North Benfleet have been moved to Castle Point. Langdon Hills however in the south west of the town is its smartest section, and is predominantly private development, with the highest proportion of managerial occupations, and degrees in the seat.
The Thurrock section is really quite varied. The majority of it consists of the town of Stanford-le-Hope, sitting on its hill above the flatlands of the Thames shore which slope gently into extensive marshland. The newer part of the town (known as Corringham) spreads out onto the flatlands east of the old town. This area is up market of Basildon, although not by much, and unlike the town is predominantly owner-occupied, although there is still a significant social housing prsence here. Down on the Thames shore at Coryton is the massive new container port built by DP World of Dubai on the site of the old Shellhaven oil refinery, which now forms London’s main port. South of Stanford is the isolated Thameside village of East Tilbury, originally built as a company town, close to an old fort on the Thames. It is mostly owner-occupied, with a larger black population similar to Tilbury proper. West of Stanford is the rural Orsett ward, anomalous in urban Thurrock, with a much more middle-class population. Newly brought in is part of urban Thurrock proper in the form of Chadwell St Mary ward. This is basically a large council estate, albeit mostly sold off, with higher routine workers even than Basildon, and a growing black population.
Socially this seat despite its good connections with London (there is a branch line through Stanford-le-hope as well as the main line through Basildon) is a little down market with a low managerial percentage for the London fringes. Politically it was historically marginal. The boundary changes in 2010 were favourable to the Conservatives, but the notional result showed it would have been Labour (just) in 2005, and the predecessor seat was held by Labour between 1997 and 2010. However it doesn’t look very marginal now. This is one of the seats where political, rather than demographic, change has taken it away from Labour. At local level Labour are still competitive in the Basildon New Town wards, although they currently only hold Pitsea NW, but as elsewhere in south Essex there was a strong UKIP vote in the middle of the last decade, and a BNP vote before that. On the Thurrock side this has persisted in the form of the Thurrock Independents, who continue to hold seats here while fading away in the rest of the District. Newly arrived St Mary provides Labour votes, but in the continuing part of the seat, Labour had no councillors for many years, prior to a win in Stanford East in 2023. At national level, the former UKIP vote has moved overwhelmingly to the Conservatives and they achieved a majority of almost 20,000 in 2019. It seems unlikely that Labour will be winning this seat again anytime soon. The current MP is Stephen Metcalfe who won the seat in 2010, and is a low profile backbencher.
Census data: Owner-occupied 66% (295/575 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (431st), social rented 19% (177th).
: White 87%(335th), Black 6%(125th), South Asian 3%(267th), Mixed 2%(262nd), Other 2%(322nd)
: Managerial & professional 33% (444th), Routine & Semi-routine 31% (196th)
: Degree 22% (545th), Minimal qualifications 36% (63rd)
: Students 5% (316th), Over 65: 18% (348th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 90% from Sth Basildon & E Thurrock and 10% from Thurrock.
89% of the old seat is in the new one, with 9% going to Basildon & Billericay, and 2% to Castle Point
Basildon provides just under half the electorate here - almost all the town south of the c2c railway line with its fast connections into the city of London from stations at Pitsea, Basildon Central, and Laindon. There are many commuters these days from Basildon. This mostly consists of outlying parts of the New Town, although Kingswood and Lea Chapel South are very much part of central Basildon, with similar working-class and council estate demographics, but only form a small part of the seat. Pitsea in the east is famous as one of the old plotlands, developed independently between the wars by people buying small plots of land for virtually nothing. It borders an extensive area of marshland along the Thames, which separates it from Benfleet and Canvey. This is still an area of council estate with much right to buy, and low occupational and educational status, similar to central Basildon, but is politically more Conservative. 1600 voters in the detached village of North Benfleet have been moved to Castle Point. Langdon Hills however in the south west of the town is its smartest section, and is predominantly private development, with the highest proportion of managerial occupations, and degrees in the seat.
The Thurrock section is really quite varied. The majority of it consists of the town of Stanford-le-Hope, sitting on its hill above the flatlands of the Thames shore which slope gently into extensive marshland. The newer part of the town (known as Corringham) spreads out onto the flatlands east of the old town. This area is up market of Basildon, although not by much, and unlike the town is predominantly owner-occupied, although there is still a significant social housing prsence here. Down on the Thames shore at Coryton is the massive new container port built by DP World of Dubai on the site of the old Shellhaven oil refinery, which now forms London’s main port. South of Stanford is the isolated Thameside village of East Tilbury, originally built as a company town, close to an old fort on the Thames. It is mostly owner-occupied, with a larger black population similar to Tilbury proper. West of Stanford is the rural Orsett ward, anomalous in urban Thurrock, with a much more middle-class population. Newly brought in is part of urban Thurrock proper in the form of Chadwell St Mary ward. This is basically a large council estate, albeit mostly sold off, with higher routine workers even than Basildon, and a growing black population.
Socially this seat despite its good connections with London (there is a branch line through Stanford-le-hope as well as the main line through Basildon) is a little down market with a low managerial percentage for the London fringes. Politically it was historically marginal. The boundary changes in 2010 were favourable to the Conservatives, but the notional result showed it would have been Labour (just) in 2005, and the predecessor seat was held by Labour between 1997 and 2010. However it doesn’t look very marginal now. This is one of the seats where political, rather than demographic, change has taken it away from Labour. At local level Labour are still competitive in the Basildon New Town wards, although they currently only hold Pitsea NW, but as elsewhere in south Essex there was a strong UKIP vote in the middle of the last decade, and a BNP vote before that. On the Thurrock side this has persisted in the form of the Thurrock Independents, who continue to hold seats here while fading away in the rest of the District. Newly arrived St Mary provides Labour votes, but in the continuing part of the seat, Labour had no councillors for many years, prior to a win in Stanford East in 2023. At national level, the former UKIP vote has moved overwhelmingly to the Conservatives and they achieved a majority of almost 20,000 in 2019. It seems unlikely that Labour will be winning this seat again anytime soon. The current MP is Stephen Metcalfe who won the seat in 2010, and is a low profile backbencher.
Census data: Owner-occupied 66% (295/575 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (431st), social rented 19% (177th).
: White 87%(335th), Black 6%(125th), South Asian 3%(267th), Mixed 2%(262nd), Other 2%(322nd)
: Managerial & professional 33% (444th), Routine & Semi-routine 31% (196th)
: Degree 22% (545th), Minimal qualifications 36% (63rd)
: Students 5% (316th), Over 65: 18% (348th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 90% from Sth Basildon & E Thurrock and 10% from Thurrock.
89% of the old seat is in the new one, with 9% going to Basildon & Billericay, and 2% to Castle Point
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 26,811 | 56.9 | 29,973 | 66.2 | 29,271 | 65.4 |
Labour | 15,321 | 32.5 | 10,051 | 22.2 | 10,540 | 23.6 |
Liberal Democrat | 732 | 1.6 | 1,957 | 4.3 | 1,836 | 4.1 |
UKIP | 3,193 | 6.8 | ||||
Green | 680 | 1.4 | 68 | 0.2 | ||
Other | 383 | 0.8 | 3,316 | 7.3 | 3,014 | 6.7 |
| Majority | 11,490 | 24.4 | 19,922 | 44.0 | 18,731 | 41.9 |