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Post by BossMan on Aug 12, 2023 8:50:26 GMT
Watford
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 12, 2023 9:00:58 GMT
Current composition LD 27 Lab 9 Defending this year LD 8 Lab 4
Labour are safe in Holywell and Vicarage but Callowland and Leggatts are split wards with the Lib Dems holding both the other seats in Callowland and one (won in 2022) in Leggatts. Both wards are unpredictable and erratic but I'd probably favour Labour to hold both. All the Lib Dem wards are more or less safe - the best Labour prospects would be Central and Meriden and there are no realistic Conservative prospects. Things could be more interesting if a general election is held on the same day. The Conservatives gained several seats in 2015 when this happened but they are weaker now, the Lib Dems less so and the general election is likely to be a defeat rather than a victory (and split ticket voting is very common even when local and general elections are concurrent.) In the event this did happen, they would be more likely to win in Tudor or even Woodside than in their traditional strongholds of Nascot and Park, but generally speaking prospects of Conservative gains here are not worth dwelling on for too long..
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Watford
Aug 14, 2023 13:49:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Aug 14, 2023 13:49:05 GMT
I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty of times before but why are there no Conservatives here at all when they’ve held the Westminster seat since 2010?
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Aug 14, 2023 14:13:53 GMT
I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty of times before but why are there no Conservatives here at all when they’ve held the Westminster seat since 2010?
Mainly because the Westminster seat includes a lot of territory that isn't in Watford borough.
Much of it probably /should/ be, but that's a separate issue.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 14, 2023 14:34:33 GMT
I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty of times before but why are there no Conservatives here at all when they’ve held the Westminster seat since 2010? Mainly because the Westminster seat includes a lot of territory that isn't in Watford borough. Much of it probably /should/ be, but that's a separate issue.
No that isn't the main reason, not least because the Conservatives are similarly weak at local level in most of the Three Rivers wards included (Carpenders Park being the sole exception) Their problem was that their vote was concentrated in a couple of wards so that even when they were able to win a plurality if votes in the borough they could never win a majority of wards. This is what I said on the ward profile for Park a few years ago
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Aug 14, 2023 16:12:17 GMT
Mainly because the Westminster seat includes a lot of territory that isn't in Watford borough. Much of it probably /should/ be, but that's a separate issue.
No that isn't the main reason, not least because the Conservatives are similarly weak at local level in most of the Three Rivers wards included (Carpenders Park being the sole exception) Their problem was that their vote was concentrated in a couple of wards so that even when they were able to win a plurality if votes in the borough they could never win a majority of wards. This is what I said on the ward profile for Park a few years ago
Fair enough - it's your patch. But to what extent is local voting behaviour replicated at National level?
Are there enough local LD voters in both Three Rivers /and/ Watford who vote differently at a GE to allow either the Tories or Labour to win the seat on a relatively low share? Or can it all be explained via differential turnout and LDs being more reliable/robust at locals?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 14, 2023 16:31:45 GMT
No that isn't the main reason, not least because the Conservatives are similarly weak at local level in most of the Three Rivers wards included (Carpenders Park being the sole exception) Their problem was that their vote was concentrated in a couple of wards so that even when they were able to win a plurality if votes in the borough they could never win a majority of wards. This is what I said on the ward profile for Park a few years ago Fair enough - it's your patch. But to what extent is local voting behaviour replicated at National level?
Are there enough local LD voters in both Three Rivers /and/ Watford who vote differently at a GE to allow either the Tories or Labour to win the seat on a relatively low share? Or can it all be explained via differential turnout and LDs being more reliable/robust at locals?
There's a huge number of people who only vote Lib Dem locally and switch to the other parties (mainly the Conservatives but also Labour) in the general. That's evident enough from elections (eg 2015) when local and general elections were held concurrently.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,330
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 14:13:52 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Apr 8, 2024 17:56:09 GMT
The Independent in Central ward is ex-Liberal Democrat councillor and ex-Conservative Dennis Wharton.
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,321
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Watford
Apr 8, 2024 18:48:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by wallington on Apr 8, 2024 18:48:36 GMT
Green candidates in Watford again... call off the search party. Lol
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,824
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 8, 2024 19:18:39 GMT
Green candidates in Watford again... call off the search party. Lol There was 1 last year - and 2 this. They're multiplying...
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Watford
Apr 14, 2024 15:18:41 GMT
via mobile
Post by olympian95 on Apr 14, 2024 15:18:41 GMT
Anecdotally hearing that Lab may be in trouble here in wards like Vicarage - LDs have had to order more stakeboards apparently, such is the demand...don't think this will affect Labour's GE performance mind you.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 30, 2024 19:01:07 GMT
For the purposes of approximating total local election votes across constituencies,
All the wards in Watford district are in Watford constituency, along with Bushey North ward from Hertsmere district (no election).
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Watford
May 3, 2024 9:59:24 GMT
via mobile
Post by olympian95 on May 3, 2024 9:59:24 GMT
LD gain Callowland
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Watford
May 3, 2024 10:03:14 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 10:03:14 GMT
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Post by carolus on May 3, 2024 10:05:10 GMT
LD hold Central, Meriden.
Lab hold Holywell
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 10:06:49 GMT
I was at school with Richard Short - he was a top bloke. I think he's stood as an Independent previously
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 10:09:54 GMT
The bloke on his left looks familiar too
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Watford
May 3, 2024 10:17:53 GMT
via mobile
Post by olympian95 on May 3, 2024 10:17:53 GMT
LD gain Leggatts from Labour
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 10:17:54 GMT
Lib Dems gained Leggatts too
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