Post by Robert Waller on Aug 11, 2023 21:56:49 GMT
County seats usually have the compass point before the name, so, not Durham North. The latter would imply that this constituency covers the northern part of the city of Durham, but it is far too small to have multiple parliamentary seats allocated. The policies regarding naming adopted by successive Boundary Commissions are still far from consistent, however. So, we currently have a North West Durham as well, but Bishop Auckland rather than South West Durham, and Sedgefield (in the latest incarnation Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor) rather than South East Durham. The North Durham constituency could be called Chester le Street, after its largest community (population around 24,000 in 2021) – which did indeed command the sole name of a seat for nigh on a century between 1885 and 1983. It could add ‘Stanley’, as the former mining villages of West, South, and East Stanley were the core of a wider Urban District council between 1894 and 1974, which overall included more people than Chester le Street town. However, North Durham as been a fair description, as the division currently covers the terrain directly between the city of the former prince bishops and the Tyne and Wear border, though it does not reach the Tyne and Newcastle because the seats of Blaydon and Washington & Sunderland West are interposed.
North Durham and before it Chester le Street have an unbroken tradition of Labour Party representation going all the way back to 1906, the first year that name was used – a record which is unsurpassed, even if one includes the Labour Representation Committee, unless one accepts subsequent Independent Labour representatives for Merthyr Tydfil. There have only been six MPs for Chester le Street and North Durham in all that time. Nevertheless, this area was not immune to the dramatic swing drop in the Labour share in the county in 2019 – in this case 15.7%. Although it was retained, unlike Bishop Auckland, NW Durham and Sedgefield, the Labour majority of 4,742 was the lowest since that very first victory in Chester le Street back in 1906.
The reasons for this at least partial crumbling of a formidable citadel are multiple. The northern part of county Durham was such an early adopter of the Labour brand because in the early 20th century coal was king here. There were collieries at Tanfield Lea and East Tanfield, several around Annfield Plain, Louisa and Hedley at Stanley, and Beamish, Handen Hold, South Pelaw and the splendidly named Craghead Busty & Oswald, all between Stanley and Chester le Street. But the last of these closed in the late 1960s. In the constituency there are now more employed in wholesale and retail, and human health and social work activities, than in manufacturing.
North Durham was still over 97% white in the 2021 census, and the Black population, for example, had risen just from 68 individuals in 2011 to 213 229 on the new boundaries). The Labour party’s appeals to multiculturalism have little resonance here. Over 96% of the population was born in England, among the very highest proportions anywhere. Far more had no educational qualifications than degrees. It is well known that these demographic variables correlate with attitudes towards Europe, the key political issue of the second half of the 2010s, and North Durham is estimated to have voted over 60% to leave. Ironically, that this wasn’t even higher may have helped Labour a little here in 2019, as the Brexit party only took 11%, less than in several other Durham seats.
One reason why the anti-EU vote was not even more than 60% was that there are middle class and relatively highly educated pockets within this constituency. Chester le Street town, for example, has gained some popularity as a commuting base for Newcastle. The fastest train journey between the two is currently claimed (on the timetable) to be just 9 minutes. Its South electoral division had over 35% in professional and managerial occupations in the 2011 census and both North & East and Lumley returned just under that percentage; the latter will be known to some as the site of the castle harbouring a luxury hotel that overlooks the Test and Durham county cricket ground. In the May 2021 Durham county elections (on newer division boundaries), the Conservatives won Chester le Street East. These three divisions also recorded 28% apiece of residents with university degrees. There was also success for a variety of localist and independent parties such as the Derwentsiders in Annfield Plain, but Labour did hold on in some of the most traditional ex-mining communities like Pelton, Sacriston and Stanley as well as in the most working class part of Chester le Street, North, which actually covers the village of South Pelaw.
North Durham is somewhat undersized compared with the constituency quota used for the 2023 review, so the Commission has decreed the addition of just over 8% of NW Durham in the shape of the Lanchester ward (6,085 electors). Lanchester is a very large (in area) predominantly rural ward, which elected two Tory councillors in May 2021. Its inclusion will significantly alter the shape of the constituency with a long tentacle developed to the south west; it makes the North Durham name somewhat less logical but also weakens Chester le Street as an alternative, as that town is at the east end of the seat.
Lanchester will also reduce Labour’s notional majority in North Durham slightly. On the other hand, with national electoral trends moving against the Conservative government they will expect a safe return at the next general election. Safer than 2019, that is; in relative terms North Durham has still moved strongly away from being one of Labour’s very safest and most long-standing strongholds. In 2019 it was actually their 144th safest seat. 1906 is clearly a very long time ago, and Labour is now a very different party in a very different Britain.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.3% 156/575
Owner occupied 64.2% 330/575
Private rented 16.0% 393/575
Social rented 19.9% 150/575
White 97.6% 29/575
Black 0.2% 535/575
Asian 1.1% 507/575
Managerial & professional 278.0% 417/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.7% 114/575
Degree level 26.3% 462/575
No qualifications 20.7% 159/575
Students 5.2% 364/575
General Election 2019: North Durham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Kevan Jones 18,639 44.2 –15.7
Conservative Edward Parson 13,897 32.9 +2.9
Brexit Party Peter Telford 4,693 11.1 New
Liberal Democrats Craig Martin 2,879 6.8 +2.2
Green Derek Morse 1,126 2.7 New
Independent Ken Rollings 961 2.3 New
Lab Majority 4,742 11.2 –18.6
2019 electorate 66,796
Turnout 42,195 63.2 –1.4
Labour hold
Swing 9.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new North Durham seat will consist of
94.1% of North Durham
8.4% of North West Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_202_North%20Durham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
North Durham and before it Chester le Street have an unbroken tradition of Labour Party representation going all the way back to 1906, the first year that name was used – a record which is unsurpassed, even if one includes the Labour Representation Committee, unless one accepts subsequent Independent Labour representatives for Merthyr Tydfil. There have only been six MPs for Chester le Street and North Durham in all that time. Nevertheless, this area was not immune to the dramatic swing drop in the Labour share in the county in 2019 – in this case 15.7%. Although it was retained, unlike Bishop Auckland, NW Durham and Sedgefield, the Labour majority of 4,742 was the lowest since that very first victory in Chester le Street back in 1906.
The reasons for this at least partial crumbling of a formidable citadel are multiple. The northern part of county Durham was such an early adopter of the Labour brand because in the early 20th century coal was king here. There were collieries at Tanfield Lea and East Tanfield, several around Annfield Plain, Louisa and Hedley at Stanley, and Beamish, Handen Hold, South Pelaw and the splendidly named Craghead Busty & Oswald, all between Stanley and Chester le Street. But the last of these closed in the late 1960s. In the constituency there are now more employed in wholesale and retail, and human health and social work activities, than in manufacturing.
North Durham was still over 97% white in the 2021 census, and the Black population, for example, had risen just from 68 individuals in 2011 to 213 229 on the new boundaries). The Labour party’s appeals to multiculturalism have little resonance here. Over 96% of the population was born in England, among the very highest proportions anywhere. Far more had no educational qualifications than degrees. It is well known that these demographic variables correlate with attitudes towards Europe, the key political issue of the second half of the 2010s, and North Durham is estimated to have voted over 60% to leave. Ironically, that this wasn’t even higher may have helped Labour a little here in 2019, as the Brexit party only took 11%, less than in several other Durham seats.
One reason why the anti-EU vote was not even more than 60% was that there are middle class and relatively highly educated pockets within this constituency. Chester le Street town, for example, has gained some popularity as a commuting base for Newcastle. The fastest train journey between the two is currently claimed (on the timetable) to be just 9 minutes. Its South electoral division had over 35% in professional and managerial occupations in the 2011 census and both North & East and Lumley returned just under that percentage; the latter will be known to some as the site of the castle harbouring a luxury hotel that overlooks the Test and Durham county cricket ground. In the May 2021 Durham county elections (on newer division boundaries), the Conservatives won Chester le Street East. These three divisions also recorded 28% apiece of residents with university degrees. There was also success for a variety of localist and independent parties such as the Derwentsiders in Annfield Plain, but Labour did hold on in some of the most traditional ex-mining communities like Pelton, Sacriston and Stanley as well as in the most working class part of Chester le Street, North, which actually covers the village of South Pelaw.
North Durham is somewhat undersized compared with the constituency quota used for the 2023 review, so the Commission has decreed the addition of just over 8% of NW Durham in the shape of the Lanchester ward (6,085 electors). Lanchester is a very large (in area) predominantly rural ward, which elected two Tory councillors in May 2021. Its inclusion will significantly alter the shape of the constituency with a long tentacle developed to the south west; it makes the North Durham name somewhat less logical but also weakens Chester le Street as an alternative, as that town is at the east end of the seat.
Lanchester will also reduce Labour’s notional majority in North Durham slightly. On the other hand, with national electoral trends moving against the Conservative government they will expect a safe return at the next general election. Safer than 2019, that is; in relative terms North Durham has still moved strongly away from being one of Labour’s very safest and most long-standing strongholds. In 2019 it was actually their 144th safest seat. 1906 is clearly a very long time ago, and Labour is now a very different party in a very different Britain.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.3% 156/575
Owner occupied 64.2% 330/575
Private rented 16.0% 393/575
Social rented 19.9% 150/575
White 97.6% 29/575
Black 0.2% 535/575
Asian 1.1% 507/575
Managerial & professional 278.0% 417/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.7% 114/575
Degree level 26.3% 462/575
No qualifications 20.7% 159/575
Students 5.2% 364/575
General Election 2019: North Durham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Kevan Jones 18,639 44.2 –15.7
Conservative Edward Parson 13,897 32.9 +2.9
Brexit Party Peter Telford 4,693 11.1 New
Liberal Democrats Craig Martin 2,879 6.8 +2.2
Green Derek Morse 1,126 2.7 New
Independent Ken Rollings 961 2.3 New
Lab Majority 4,742 11.2 –18.6
2019 electorate 66,796
Turnout 42,195 63.2 –1.4
Labour hold
Swing 9.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new North Durham seat will consist of
94.1% of North Durham
8.4% of North West Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_202_North%20Durham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 20881 | 43.7% |
| Con | 16457 | 34.4% |
| Brexit | 5106 | 10.7% |
| LD | 3042 | 6.4% |
| Green | 1249 | 2.6% |
| Oths | 1063 | 2.2% |
| Majority | 4424 | 9.3% |