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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 18:52:34 GMT
Incumbent- Dafydd Llewellyn, Plaid Cymru.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 13, 2023 12:43:38 GMT
Working on the assumption of a single vote process, not a two vote process, then the Conservatives will win Powys, Labour will win Pembrokeshire and Plaid Cymru will win Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion, making this area likely to vote Plaid.
The first preference vote in 2021 was: Con 69,112, Plaid 68,208, Lab 48,033 and Lib Dem 17,649
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Post by phil156 on Aug 15, 2023 11:07:18 GMT
Iain Harrison is the Conservative candidate here from Guilsford
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 15, 2023 11:34:42 GMT
Iain Harrison is the Conservative candidate here from Guilsford Guilsfield (near Welshpool) or Guildford (Surrey)? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 15, 2023 11:52:14 GMT
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 9, 2023 15:23:02 GMT
2021: PC - 68,208 (33.6%) Con - 69,112 (34.0%) Lab - 48,003 (23.7%) LD - 17,649 (8.7%) Second round: PC - 94,488 (55.0%) Con - 77,408 (45.0%)
In 2016 PC won by 2.9% over Con in the first round and 11.8% in the second. In 2012 Con won by 1.7% over Lab (two candidates).
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Nov 16, 2023 11:32:27 GMT
Labour candidate: Philippa Thompson. She was the 2017 and 2019 GE candidate in Preseli Pembrokeshire. Tried a couple of Westminster selections this year without success.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 17, 2024 20:27:59 GMT
What I think will be the most interesting aspect will be turnout (as it will be the only election in Wales) therefore could turnout be signficantly lower than in 2021 (when we had the Senedd election as well)
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 17, 2024 20:34:04 GMT
What I think will be the most interesting aspect will be turnout (as it will be the only election in Wales) therefore could turnout be signficantly lower than in 2021 (when we had the Senedd election as well) Significantly lower than 2021 and 2016 (both combined with the Senedd/Assembly), but I’ll bet (as I said in the North Wales thread) higher than 2012 mainly due to motivated Labour (and Plaid) supporters wanting to give two fingers up to Westminster. Plus increased media coverage in May’s elections due to the London Mayoralty. Any news if the LDs (or others) will stand here? |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 18, 2024 9:26:11 GMT
What I think will be the most interesting aspect will be turnout (as it will be the only election in Wales) therefore could turnout be signficantly lower than in 2021 (when we had the Senedd election as well) Significantly lower than 2021 and 2016 (both combined with the Senedd/Assembly), but I’ll bet (as I said in the North Wales thread) higher than 2012 mainly due to motivated Labour (and Plaid) supporters wanting to give two fingers up to Westminster. Plus increased media coverage in May’s elections due to the London Mayoralty. Any news if the LDs (or others) will stand here? The biggest barrier to standing is the £5,000 deposit, therefore based on likelihood of getting it back, I can see a situation where Labour and Plaid are the only candidates, the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Green cannot afford to throw away £5,000 (in the latter cases, for a concept they are not entirely sold on) |
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Mar 18, 2024 9:30:39 GMT
I would be somewhat surprised, and concerned, if we didn't stand. We had candidates for every PCC in 2021, so it would be a clear step backwards not to do so this time.
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Post by batman on Mar 18, 2024 9:56:03 GMT
I'm sure the LDs would stand & I am surprised at the suggestion they might not.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Apr 5, 2024 17:41:53 GMT
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Post by listener on Apr 24, 2024 20:58:56 GMT
DYFED-POWYS 2021
2021 PARO – Ceredigion
Because the PCC elections in Wales coincided with the Senedd elections, the local results were announced by constituency, rather than by district
I have restated the results below to achieve the best fit by district. The Pembrokeshire figures include 10 Carmarthenshire wards forming Carmarthen West.
Conservatives came first in Dyfed-Powys on the first count, but second count transfers resulted in the election of Dafyd Llywelyn (Plaid Cymru).
Conservatives were ahead in Pembrokeshire and Powys; Plaid Cymru were ahead in Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion.
Overall result (First Stage) (total valid ballots 203,002)
Conservatives ahead in all districts where the data is known
Con 69,112 – 34.0%
Plaid Cymru 68,208 – 33.6%
Lab 48,033 – 23.7%
Lib Dem 17,649 – 8.7%
Carmarthenshire (total valid ballots 60,518)
Con 15,382 – 25.4%
Plaid Cymru 25,829 – 42.7%
Lab 17,104 – 28.3%
Lib Dem 2,203 – 3.6%
Ceredigion (total valid ballots 29,051)
Con 6,021 – 20.7%
Plaid Cymru 15,954 – 54.9%
Lab 4,060 – 14.0%
Lib Dem 3,016 – 10.4%
Pembrokeshire (total valid ballots 60,025)
Con 23,648 – 39.4%
Plaid Cymru 15,976 – 26.6%
Lab 17,696 – 29.5%
Lib Dem 2,705 – 4.5%
Powys (total valid ballots 53,408)
Con 24,061 – 45.1%
Plaid Cymru 10,449 – 19.6%
Lab 9,173 – 17.2%
Lib Dem 9,725 – 18.2%
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Post by listener on Apr 24, 2024 20:59:25 GMT
DYFED-POWYS 2021
2021 PARO – Ceredigion
For the record, here are the raw results by constituency
Conservatives were ahead in 4 constituencies; Plaid Cymru were ahead in 2 constituencies, in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and in Ceredigion; Labour were ahead in Llanelli
Overall result (First Stage) (total valid ballots 203,002)
Con 69,112 – 34.0%
Plaid Cymru 68,208 – 33.6%
Lab 48,033 – 23.7%
Lib Dem 17,649 – 8.7%
Brecon and Radnor (total valid ballots 30,061)
Con 13,373 – 44.5%
Plaid Cymru 4,796 – 16.0%
Lab 5,694 – 18.9%
Lib Dem 6,198 – 20.6%
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (total valid ballots 31,760)
Con 7,906 – 24.9%
Plaid Cymru 15,916– 50.1%
Lab 6,716 – 21.1%
Lib Dem 1,222 – 3.8%
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (total valid ballots 30,187)
Con 11,941 – 39.6%
Plaid Cymru 8,611 – 28.5%
Lab 8,361 – 27.7%
Lib Dem 1,274 – 4.2%
Ceredigion (total valid ballots 29,051)
Con 6,021 – 20.7%
Plaid Cymru 15,954 – 54.9%
Lab 4,060 – 14.0%
Lib Dem 3,016 – 10.4%
Llanelli (total valid ballots 28,758)
Con 7,476 – 26.0%
Plaid Cymru 9,913 – 34.5%
Lab 10,388 – 36.1%
Lib Dem 981 – 3.4%
Montgomeryshire (total valid ballots 23,347)
Con 10,688 – 45.8%
Plaid Cymru 5,653 – 24.2%
Lab 3,479 – 14.9%
Lib Dem 3,527 – 15.1%
Preseli Pembrokeshire (total valid ballots 29,838)
Con 11,707 – 39.2%
Plaid Cymru 7,365 – 24.7%
Lab 9,335 – 31.3%
Lib Dem 1,431 – 4.8%
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johng
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Post by johng on May 3, 2024 10:35:48 GMT
Turnout figures:
Ceredigion - 21.7%
Carmarthenshire - 20.5%
Powys - 18.1%
Pembrokeshire - 17.2%
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 3, 2024 11:50:02 GMT
Turnout figures: Ceredigion - 21.7% Carmarthenshire - 20.5% Powys - 18.1% Pembrokeshire - 17.2% Plaid will win Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire. Powys and Pembrokeshire will either be marginal Con wins or Lib Dem / Lab wins. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 3, 2024 11:58:35 GMT
Turnout figures: Ceredigion - 21.7% Carmarthenshire - 20.5% Powys - 18.1% Pembrokeshire - 17.2% Plaid will win Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire. Powys and Pembrokeshire will either be marginal Con wins or Lib Dem / Lab wins. Pembrokeshire could be a Lib Dem win? Er, what? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 12:00:20 GMT
It's very simple. Whatever Harry says, assume the opposite.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on May 3, 2024 12:02:06 GMT
In this case it's pretty obvious what Harry means, though, isn't it? That Powys will be either a marginal Con or LD win, whilst Pembrokeshire will be a marginal Con or Lab win.
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