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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 18:37:01 GMT
Incumbent- Matthew Barber, Conservative.
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Post by redvers on Aug 16, 2023 14:03:33 GMT
2021:
Con - 42.46% Lab - 27.81% LD - 17.48% Ind - 12.26%
Con - 57.29% Lab - 42.71%
2016:
Con - 39.9% Lab - 33.5% LD - 14.45% UKIP - 12.12%
Con - 54.0% Lab - 46.0%
2012:
Con - 34.70% Lab - 25.85% Ind - 14.48% LD - 9.36% UKIP - 8.82% Ind - 6.79%
Con - 57.2% Lab - 42.8%
Hard to believe, on current polling, that Labour wouldn't have a decent chance of winning Thames Valley under the SV system, but of course we'll now be back to FPTP. Lot depends on just what spoiler candidates come forward.
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Post by elinorhelyn on Aug 16, 2023 14:36:39 GMT
I'd consider this a blue wall bellwether for the general election
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 16, 2023 22:49:47 GMT
What is covered by Thames Valley? Berks and Oxon?
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Post by mattb on Aug 17, 2023 3:45:15 GMT
What is covered by Thames Valley? Berks and Oxon? & Bucks/MK
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Post by stb12 on Aug 17, 2023 7:45:33 GMT
Inspector Morse’s territory
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Aug 17, 2023 12:10:35 GMT
Inspector Morse’s territory Are the Tories electoral chances up to code here, or will the Labour party's fortunes Thaw.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 17, 2023 12:38:29 GMT
The might be a half-decent chance of a Lib Dem challenge, given recent local government results in this area.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 17, 2023 16:48:17 GMT
The might be a half-decent chance of a Lib Dem challenge, given recent local government results in this area. Indeed, if the Lib Dems can put up someone who can appeal in both Slough and MK (which is doable) then they are in contention because the Bucks/Oxon 'well educated vote' is already on their side and just needs a nudge. Importantly, from my perspective anyway, Thames Valley Police need a bit of a shake up and a commissioner who has a slightly different set of priorities, albeit ones I might not share, could get things moving. The force generally is quite responsive to what you might call community priorities but the people who run things at Kidlington maybe aren't cut from the same cloth as the average copper. Lots of pushback to ideas when I was involved with Pub Watch even though the local teams were in agreement and far too much reliance on station based activities.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 17, 2023 20:54:55 GMT
Inspector Morse’s territory Are the Tories electoral chances up to code here, or will the Labour party's fortunes Thaw. I think Labour will do well if they show the right amount of Endeavour
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 17, 2023 21:54:59 GMT
It would be Strange if the Tories did that well
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Aug 17, 2023 21:59:34 GMT
Yeah, I think this is a very long shot for the Lib Dems. Labour might be competitive although it's a tough ask. Matthew Barber seems to have made a bit more impact than his predecessor although it's hard to judge unless you are seeing decisions day by day.
It's a sprawling police force area as well as a very strange electoral area. MK's policing needs are a mile away from rural Oxfordshire's and Slough and Reading different again. Give me a free hand, and I'd look at whether a "Bucks and Beds" police force could work with Berks and Oxon forming a genuine "Thames Valley" area. Would sort out some of Beds financial strain, and there's lots more commonality with Bucks and Beds such as health board areas.
I've decided this week that any electoral area named "Valley" isn't up to much. Ribble Valley, Waveney Valley, coming for you next....
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 17, 2023 22:24:38 GMT
Inspector Morse’s territory Labour to SDP to Labour again feels about right.
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 18, 2023 13:43:21 GMT
Inspector Morse’s territory It would be somewhat surreal if Laurence Fox stood here for Reclaim
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Sept 1, 2023 21:43:47 GMT
This one is helped in that the incumbent is the definition of "OK, Alexa, show us a chinless wonder". But of course the gerrymander of the voting system makes no chin more likely to win.
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Post by redvers on Sept 27, 2023 21:20:28 GMT
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 28, 2023 7:50:24 GMT
You've made me think of a British Eurovision entry now redvers
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Dec 2, 2023 15:27:03 GMT
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Dec 2, 2023 16:03:42 GMT
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Dec 2, 2023 21:30:46 GMT
The salmon-faced Tory incumbent won’t need to take much time away from his daily routine of laughing at the people who pay him almost £100,000 a year for doing fuck all, thanks to the gerrymandering of the voting system.
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