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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 18:00:08 GMT
Incumbent, Chris Nelson, Conservative.
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Post by carolus on Aug 15, 2023 11:02:33 GMT
2021:
Con - 79,086 (40.6%) LD - 37,024 (19.0%) Ind (Surl) - 34,286 (17.6%) Lab - 31,347 (16.1%) Ind (Stratton) - 13,131 (6.7%)
Second Round: Con - 91,097 (60.4%) LD - 59,838 (39.6%)
In 2016 Ind (Surl) won by 5.3% over Con in the first round and 18.0% in the second. In 2012 Ind (Surl) won by -0.9% over Con in the first round and 6.2% in the second.
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Post by carolus on Feb 19, 2024 22:01:36 GMT
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,630
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 19, 2024 23:20:01 GMT
Had this still been SV, I would have given him my second preference, albeit much more reluctantly than last time. Obviously with FPTP I will be voting for the Labour candidate
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on Feb 20, 2024 0:01:00 GMT
I would certainly expect a Lib Dem gain now, putting Surl's numbers in 2016 on top of the LDs would only require a small additional swing to pull it off. Which would be one of the first Lib Dem PCCs. Herts and Surrey also look strong for them this year.
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Post by carolus on Apr 5, 2024 17:27:12 GMT
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Post by listener on Apr 22, 2024 22:47:13 GMT
GLOUCESTERSHIRE RESULT 2021
2021 PARO – Gloucester
Overall result (First Stage) (total valid ballots 194,874)
Conservatives ahead in all districts
Con 79,086 – 40.6% Lib Dem 37,024 – 19.0% Independent (Surl) 34,286 – 17.6% Lab 31,347 – 16.1% Independent (Stratton) 13,131 – 6.7%
Cheltenham (total valid ballots 37,233)
Con 13,608 – 36.5% Lib Dem 11,206 – 30.1% Independent (Surl) 6,944 – 18.7% Lab 3,314 – 8.9% Independent (Stratton) 2,161 – 5.8%
Cotswold (total valid ballots 29,907)
Con 14,152 – 47.3% Lib Dem 7,455 – 24.9% Independent (Surl) 4,358 – 14.6% Lab 2,285 – 7.6% Independent (Stratton) 1,657 – 5.5%
Forest of Dean (total valid ballots 24,457)
Con 9,930 – 40.6% Lib Dem 2,549 – 10.4% Independent (Surl) 4,706 – 19.2% Lab 5,104 – 20.9% Independent (Stratton) 2,168 – 8.9%
Gloucester (total valid ballots 33,407)
Con 13,870 – 41.5% Lib Dem 5,488 – 16.4% Independent (Surl) 5,396 – 16.2% Lab 6,616 – 19.8% Independent (Stratton) 2,037 – 6.1%
Stroud (total valid ballots 43,111)
Con 15,824 – 36.7% Lib Dem 4,778 – 11.1% Independent (Surl) 8,088 – 18.8% Lab 11,192 – 26.0% Independent (Stratton) 3,229 – 7.5%
Tewkesbury (total valid ballots 26,759)
Con 11,702 – 43.7% Lib Dem 5,548 – 20.7% Independent (Surl) 4,794 – 17.9% Lab 2,836 – 10.6% Independent (Stratton) 1,879 – 7.0%
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 12:54:42 GMT
Turnout in Stroud is 40.66% with 39,832 votes to count.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,630
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Post by European Lefty on May 3, 2024 13:11:03 GMT
Turnouts:
Cheltenham: 23,327 - 35% Cotswold: 16,848 - 24% Forest: 13,477 - 19% Gloucester: 28,611 - 31% Stroud: 39,832 - 41% Tewkesbury: 15,312 - 21% TOTAL: 146,347 - 29.5%
Distribution looks like good news for the LDs
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 14:38:58 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,796
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Post by iain on May 3, 2024 16:00:11 GMT
Looks like the voting system change will save the Tories
Stroud PCC Ashley Smith (L) 14804 Chris Nelson (C) 10,881 Martin John Surl (LD) 9497 Matthew James Randolph (I) 3875
Gloucester City PCC Chris Nelson (C) 8622 Martin John Surl (LD) 7881 Ashley Smith (L) 7863 Matthew James Randolph (I) 3939
Tewkesbury PCC Chris Nelson (C) 5682 Martin John Surl (LD) 5095 Ashley Smith (L) 2643 Matthew James Randolph (I) 1807
Forest of Dean PCC Chris Nelson (C) 4693 Ashley Smith (L) 3722 Martin John Surl (LD) 3251 Matthew James Randolph (I) 1693
Cotswold PCC result Chris Nelson (C) 7814 Martin John Surl (LD) 5577 Ashley Smith (L) 2046 Matthew James Randolph (I) 1295
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,796
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Post by iain on May 3, 2024 16:25:01 GMT
Chris Nelson holds on by 1,500 votes
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 11:05:27 GMT
Con 47838 LD 46352 Lab 35069 Ind 15240
Con 33.1% LD 32.1% Lab 24.3% Ind 10.5%
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 8, 2024 10:51:04 GMT
Chris Nelson holds on by 1,500 votes Smallest majority of any PCC? 1,486. 2024 Gloucestershire police and crime commissioner election Conservative: 47,838 32.7% -8.0 Liberal Democrats: 46,352 31.7% +12.7 Labour: 35,069 24.0% +7.9 Independent: 15,240 10.4% N/A
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Post by andrewp on May 8, 2024 10:54:39 GMT
Chris Nelson holds on by 1,500 votes Smallest majority of any PCC? 1,486.2024 Gloucestershire police and crime commissioner election Conservative: 47,838 32.7% -8.0 Liberal Democrats: 46,352 31.7% +12.7 Labour: 35,069 24.0% +7.9 Independent: 15,240 10.4% N/A Warwickshire was closer still- winning margin of 261
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,418
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Post by mboy on May 8, 2024 11:41:31 GMT
Is this the closest the LDs have ever got to winning a PCC?
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