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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 17:23:49 GMT
Incumbent- Mark Shelford, Conservative
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Post by carolus on Aug 12, 2023 8:22:10 GMT
2021: Con 136,988 (34.7%) Lab 93,495 (23.7%) Green 64,790 (16.4%) LD 52,839 (13.4%) Ind (Smith) 46,379 (11.8%)
Second Round: Con 161,319 (52.4%) Lab 146,293 (47.6%)
In 2016 the winner was Ind (Mountstevens) by 2.3% over Lab in the first round and 8.2% in the second.
In 2012 the winner was Ind (Mountstevens) by 11.5% over Con in the first round and 29.9% in the second.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,235
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Post by andrea on Sept 7, 2023 10:50:04 GMT
Labour candidate is Clare Moody. Former SW MEP.
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Post by carolus on Mar 1, 2024 21:11:22 GMT
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Apr 5, 2024 16:13:56 GMT
SOPNBenet Allen (LD) Katy Grant (Green) Clare Moody (Lab Co-Op) Mark Shelford (Con)
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Post by PeopleLikeWe on Apr 6, 2024 15:16:11 GMT
I think it'll be a tight race between the Lib Dems, Labour and the Tories.
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Post by carolus on Apr 6, 2024 15:56:00 GMT
I think it'll be a tight race between the Lib Dems, Labour and the Tories. Is there something in particular that makes you think we'd be in with a shout? I'd have thought that with only Bristol having concurrent elections, we'd be pretty much out of the running.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 6, 2024 16:27:12 GMT
I think it'll be a tight race between the Lib Dems, Labour and the Tories. Is there something in particular that makes you think we'd be in with a shout? I'd have thought that with only Bristol having concurrent elections, we'd be pretty much out of the running. I agree. I’d be surprised if the LDs are in contention and I would be really surprised if Labour don’t win.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Apr 6, 2024 16:40:20 GMT
I wonder whether as there may be a larger turnout in Bristol, with the Greens doing very well there and having strength elsewhere in parts of Somerset there is an outside chance of the Green's getting close?
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Post by andrewp on Apr 6, 2024 16:54:50 GMT
I wonder whether as there may be a larger turnout in Bristol, with the Greens doing very well there and having strength elsewhere in parts of Somerset there is an outside chance of the Green's getting close? I can’t see that personally. Last time with the council elections in Bristol and no where else, about 35% of the votes here were cast in Bristol And last time in Bristol, the PCC percentages were Lab 34% Green 27% Con 21% LD 10% And in everywhere else apart from Bristol they were Con 43% Lab 18% LD 15% Green 11% I reckon the Greens would have to get 45% in Bristol to have a chance I just did some rough numbers of say Bristol voting Lab 40 Green 34 Con 15 LD 11 and the rest voting LD 32 Con 30 Lab 23 Green 15 and you get numbers of something like Lab 112000 Con 98000 LD 97000 Green 85000.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 872
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Post by r34t on Apr 6, 2024 16:59:56 GMT
Is there something in particular that makes you think we'd be in with a shout? I'd have thought that with only Bristol having concurrent elections, we'd be pretty much out of the running. I agree. I’d be surprised if the LDs are in contention and I would be really surprised if Labour don’t win. Can't see how the LDs are in contention ? Their anti-Labour support in Bristol has gone to the Greens & they aren't flavour of the month in their Somerset stronghold.
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aslaw
Non-Aligned
Posts: 12
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Post by aslaw on Apr 17, 2024 9:35:18 GMT
This election will demonstrate the iniquity of FPTP. There are four candidates (Parties) with a strength and a chance of success. How should the Tactical voter behave?
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Post by johnloony on Apr 17, 2024 10:51:21 GMT
This election will demonstrate the iniquity of FPTP. There are four candidates (Parties) with a strength and a chance of success. How should the Tactical voter behave? He should vote for the party or candidate whose policies he supports
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 17, 2024 12:10:52 GMT
*They
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aslaw
Non-Aligned
Posts: 12
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Post by aslaw on Apr 17, 2024 14:25:16 GMT
Exactly the Tory wish. But what if one’s goal was to get rid of the Tory P.C.?
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Post by froome on Apr 17, 2024 16:29:10 GMT
The Conservatives have very little chance of retaining this seat (on current polling, probably no chance whatsoever). I expect Labour will come top, and it will be more interesting to see who comes second. Note that we came ahead of the Lib Dems for third last time round, and I would expect us to come ahead of them again. The Conservatives may finish anywhere between second and fourth, though as it is FPTP this time round, this may help them retain a top two finish (due to tactical voting coalescing around Labour).
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on Apr 17, 2024 19:56:52 GMT
A tactical voter favoring a non-Tory police commissioner would probably be best advised to vote Labour in Avon and Somerset. Winning will depend on producing a bar chart to clearly demonstrate this to the average uninformed voter who may not know the result from last time.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 872
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Post by r34t on Apr 17, 2024 21:04:38 GMT
A tactical voter favoring a non-Tory police commissioner would probably be best advised to vote Labour in Avon and Somerset. Winning will depend on producing a bar chart to clearly demonstrate this to the average uninformed voter who may not know the result from last time. I have the very leaflet, with a bar chart, ready to go out this weekend. Well, actually I have 2,000
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Post by listener on Apr 22, 2024 22:39:53 GMT
AVON AND SOMERSET RESULT 2021
2021 PARO – Bath and North East Somerset
Overall result (First Stage) (total valid ballots 394,491)
Conservatives ahead in all districts, except Bristol (Lab)
Con 136,988 – 34.7% Lab 93,495 – 23.7% Green Party 64,790 – 16.4% Lib Dem 52,839 – 13.4% Independent 46,379 – 11.8%
Bath and North East Somerset (total valid ballots 47,022)
Con 15,209 – 32.3% Lab 10,980 – 23.4% Green Party 6,381 – 13.6% Lib Dem 9,403 – 20.0% Independent 5,049 – 10.7%
Bristol (total valid ballots 136,583)
Con 28,442 – 20.8% Lab 45,973 – 33.7% Green Party 37,141 – 27.2% Lib Dem 13,930 – 10.2% Independent 11,097 – 8.1%
North Somerset (total valid ballots 39,665)
Con 16,524 – 41.7% Lab 6,882 – 17.4% Green Party 4,490 – 11.3% Lib Dem 3,825 – 9.6% Independent 7,944 – 20.0%
South Gloucestershire (total valid ballots 68,341)
Con 29,225 – 42.8% Lab 16,332 – 23.9% Green Party 7,002 – 10.2% Lib Dem 8,716 – 12.8% Independent 7,066 – 10.3%
Somerset (total valid ballots 102,880
Con 47,588 – 46.3% Lab 13,328 – 13.0% Green Party 9,776 – 9.5% Lib Dem 16,965 – 16.5% Independent 15,223 – 14.8%
The Somerset results were sub-divided as follows
Mendip (total valid ballots 23,751)
Con 9,587 – 40.4% Lab 3,300 – 13.9% Green Party 3,125 – 13.2% Lib Dem 4,286– 18.0% Independent 3,453 – 14.5%
Sedgemoor (total valid ballots 18,219)
Con 9,204 – 50.5% Lab 2,807 – 15.4% Green Party 1,279 – 7.0% Lib Dem 2,214 – 12.2% Independent 2,715 – 14.9%
Somerset West and Taunton (total valid ballots 28,149)
Con 12,842– 45.6% Lab 3,757 – 13.3% Green Party 2,493 – 8.9% Lib Dem 4,407– 15.7% Independent 4,650 – 16.5%
South Somerset (total valid ballots 32,761)
Con 15,955 – 48.7% Lab 3,464 – 10.6% Green Party 2,879 – 8.8% Lib Dem 6,058 – 18.5% Independent 4,405 – 13.4%
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 3:08:06 GMT
South Gloucestershire
Mark Shelford (Conservative) - 17,528 Clare Moody (Labour) - 15,192 Katy Grant (Green) - 6,283 Benet Allen (Liberal Democrat) - 5,678
Turnout 20.38%
Bath and North East Somerset
Mark Shelford (Conservative) - 10,281 Clare Moody (Labour) - 9,526 Katy Grant (Green) - 5,088 Benet Allen (Liberal Democrat) - 4,859
North Somerset
Mark Shelford (Conservative) - 12,367 Clare Moody (Labour) - 9,352 Katy Grant (Green) - 5,027 Benet Allen (Liberal Democrat) - 3,546
Turnout 18.18%
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