Post by Robert Waller on Aug 11, 2023 17:11:47 GMT
The constituency of Woking has been held continuously by the Conservative party since its creation out of parts of the former Chertsey and Farnham seats in 1950, and it has never seen a really close contest yet. The narrowest margin so far 5,678 over the Liberal Democrats in 1997 when on Cranley Onslow’s retirement the new candidate Humfrey Malins suffered a 20% drop in the Tory share to their all time low of 38%, but even that, in a disastrous year for the Tories, was affected by a internal split that saw an Independent Conservative get nearly 4,000 votes. However, that might be about to change, partly because of another apparent governmental meltdown, partly because of very recent Liberal Democrat triumphs in local elections, and partly due to the massive debt left to the new stewards of Woking Borough Council by the previous administration.
The Nomis official labour market statistics define the Woking ‘Built-Up Area’ as the most populous in the county of Surrey with the borough of Woking having 103,900 residents in the 2021 Census. Although this certainly includes communities that do not consider themselves part of the town of Woking itself, which with a 2021 population of 75,666 is a little behind Guildford (77,854) in the county’s rank order of size. However it has definitely had ambitions to be the most prominent urban centre, as can be seen in the burgeoning tower blocks of its skyline, visible from miles away in all directions, such as from Chobham Common to the north or the Hog’s Back to the south. The problem is that the council’s debt built up by borrowing for investment appears to have reached the £1.8 billion mark.
www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2023/jun/08/what-were-they-smoking-in-woking-council-tax-payers-need-to-be-told
This may well have played a role in the Liberal Democrats gaining control of Woking council in May 2022, and then the Conservatives winning precisely no seats as they lost all four of the wards they were defending in May 2023. The LDs had previously run the council only for one year in 1996-97. Now however Woking must also be seen as a prime Lib Dem target in parliamentary terms as well. Up to and including 2019 the constituency is actually a little larger than the borough, taking in the rural ward of Pirbright and Normandy from Guildford’s local government area, but in the 2023 boundary changes these are moved to Surrey Heath and the constituency will be coterminous with the local authority, for the voters to make up their minds on whatever criteria they wish. The loss of Normandy & Pirbright cannot hurt the Liberal Democrat chances, as it is not affected by the Woking council scandal and was won by the Conservatives in the Guildford local elections in 2023, unlike anywhere in Woking.
Within Woking’s boundaries a very diverse range of housing and demographic type are to be found. As might be expected in Surrey, there are some very expensive and up-market areas, such as in parts of West Byfleet and Pyrford and the Mount Hermon, Woodhams, St John’s and Hook Heath neighbourhoods of Woking itself. There are also attractive villages that have to an extent been swallowed up, such as Horsell, chosen by the Martians for their first landing in attack on the Earth in H.G.Wells’s War of the Worlds. But there are plenty of less well off neighbourhoods too, such as the large 1960s and 1970s development of Goldsworth Park west of Woking centre, Old Woking to its south east, and, well to its east, the big Sheerwater council estate as well as the largest concentration of Asian residents in the county within the Maybury area – which paired in an MSOA with Sheerwater, was only 40% ‘white in the 2021 census data. This predominantly Muslim community is long standing, and here is to be found what is claimed to be the first purpose-built mosque in England, Shah Jahan, dating from 1889. Woking constituency as a whole ranks only 417th in the proportion of white residents; and is just outside the top 100 for ‘Asian'. It does have a cosmopolitan feel in a way surrounding seats do not.
The mosaic of socially disparate areas within Woking have given rise to a complex pattern of local election results. Labour have won the heavily ethnic Canalside ward (town centre, Maybury, Sheerwater) each time from its creation in 2016 to 2023. Independents have taken Byfleet & West Byfleet (the former inside the M25, the latter outside) every time except for an isolated Conservative win in 2021, including in a byelection in December 2018. In a relatively good year like 2021 the Tories won affluent wards such as Pyrford, Knaphill and Heathlands as well, but the Liberal Democrat record in Goldsworth Park, St John’s and Horsell has been improving to make them look very safe now, at council level at least.
In parliamentary terms as well they have been advancing, even before the shenanigans involving the council broke. In December 2019 the MP Jonathan Lord held on by 9,767, even though there was a 9% swing to the Liberal Democrats who moved up from 3rd to 2nd. There is still a substantial Labour vote of 16% that might be squeezed, but with Lord attaining nearly 49% it will also need a major drop in Conservative popularity for the Lib Dems to get really close or make a gain. However that is exactly what is happening locally and nationally, and some smart observers in the county of Surrey are tipping this to be one of the less widely expected national Conservative losses in 2024. Those skyscrapers may, metaphorically only of course, come crashing down.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.6% 394/575
Owner occupied 67.3% 253/575
Private rented 21.2% 174/575
Social rented 11.5% 450/575
White 78.5% 417/575
Black 1.8% 247/575
Asian 14.2% 101/575
Managerial & professional 44.4% 49/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.6% 491/575
Degree level 44.7% 67/575
No qualifications 13.2% 496/575
Students 5.6% 296/575
General Election 2019: Woking
Conservative Jonathan Lord 26,396 48.9 –5.2
Liberal Democrats Will Forster 16,629 30.8 +13.3
Labour Gerry Mitchell 8,827 16.4 –7.5
Green Ella Walding 1,485 2.8 +0.8
UKIP Troy de Leon 600 1.1 –1.0
C Majority 9,767 18.1 –12.1
Turnout 53,933 71.5 –1.0
Registered electors 75,455
Conservative hold
Swing 9.3 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The new Woking seat will consist of
94.1% of Woking
(5.9% of the present Woking will be in Surrey Heath)
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_371_Woking_Landscape.pdf
The Nomis official labour market statistics define the Woking ‘Built-Up Area’ as the most populous in the county of Surrey with the borough of Woking having 103,900 residents in the 2021 Census. Although this certainly includes communities that do not consider themselves part of the town of Woking itself, which with a 2021 population of 75,666 is a little behind Guildford (77,854) in the county’s rank order of size. However it has definitely had ambitions to be the most prominent urban centre, as can be seen in the burgeoning tower blocks of its skyline, visible from miles away in all directions, such as from Chobham Common to the north or the Hog’s Back to the south. The problem is that the council’s debt built up by borrowing for investment appears to have reached the £1.8 billion mark.
www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2023/jun/08/what-were-they-smoking-in-woking-council-tax-payers-need-to-be-told
This may well have played a role in the Liberal Democrats gaining control of Woking council in May 2022, and then the Conservatives winning precisely no seats as they lost all four of the wards they were defending in May 2023. The LDs had previously run the council only for one year in 1996-97. Now however Woking must also be seen as a prime Lib Dem target in parliamentary terms as well. Up to and including 2019 the constituency is actually a little larger than the borough, taking in the rural ward of Pirbright and Normandy from Guildford’s local government area, but in the 2023 boundary changes these are moved to Surrey Heath and the constituency will be coterminous with the local authority, for the voters to make up their minds on whatever criteria they wish. The loss of Normandy & Pirbright cannot hurt the Liberal Democrat chances, as it is not affected by the Woking council scandal and was won by the Conservatives in the Guildford local elections in 2023, unlike anywhere in Woking.
Within Woking’s boundaries a very diverse range of housing and demographic type are to be found. As might be expected in Surrey, there are some very expensive and up-market areas, such as in parts of West Byfleet and Pyrford and the Mount Hermon, Woodhams, St John’s and Hook Heath neighbourhoods of Woking itself. There are also attractive villages that have to an extent been swallowed up, such as Horsell, chosen by the Martians for their first landing in attack on the Earth in H.G.Wells’s War of the Worlds. But there are plenty of less well off neighbourhoods too, such as the large 1960s and 1970s development of Goldsworth Park west of Woking centre, Old Woking to its south east, and, well to its east, the big Sheerwater council estate as well as the largest concentration of Asian residents in the county within the Maybury area – which paired in an MSOA with Sheerwater, was only 40% ‘white in the 2021 census data. This predominantly Muslim community is long standing, and here is to be found what is claimed to be the first purpose-built mosque in England, Shah Jahan, dating from 1889. Woking constituency as a whole ranks only 417th in the proportion of white residents; and is just outside the top 100 for ‘Asian'. It does have a cosmopolitan feel in a way surrounding seats do not.
The mosaic of socially disparate areas within Woking have given rise to a complex pattern of local election results. Labour have won the heavily ethnic Canalside ward (town centre, Maybury, Sheerwater) each time from its creation in 2016 to 2023. Independents have taken Byfleet & West Byfleet (the former inside the M25, the latter outside) every time except for an isolated Conservative win in 2021, including in a byelection in December 2018. In a relatively good year like 2021 the Tories won affluent wards such as Pyrford, Knaphill and Heathlands as well, but the Liberal Democrat record in Goldsworth Park, St John’s and Horsell has been improving to make them look very safe now, at council level at least.
In parliamentary terms as well they have been advancing, even before the shenanigans involving the council broke. In December 2019 the MP Jonathan Lord held on by 9,767, even though there was a 9% swing to the Liberal Democrats who moved up from 3rd to 2nd. There is still a substantial Labour vote of 16% that might be squeezed, but with Lord attaining nearly 49% it will also need a major drop in Conservative popularity for the Lib Dems to get really close or make a gain. However that is exactly what is happening locally and nationally, and some smart observers in the county of Surrey are tipping this to be one of the less widely expected national Conservative losses in 2024. Those skyscrapers may, metaphorically only of course, come crashing down.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.6% 394/575
Owner occupied 67.3% 253/575
Private rented 21.2% 174/575
Social rented 11.5% 450/575
White 78.5% 417/575
Black 1.8% 247/575
Asian 14.2% 101/575
Managerial & professional 44.4% 49/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.6% 491/575
Degree level 44.7% 67/575
No qualifications 13.2% 496/575
Students 5.6% 296/575
General Election 2019: Woking
Conservative Jonathan Lord 26,396 48.9 –5.2
Liberal Democrats Will Forster 16,629 30.8 +13.3
Labour Gerry Mitchell 8,827 16.4 –7.5
Green Ella Walding 1,485 2.8 +0.8
UKIP Troy de Leon 600 1.1 –1.0
C Majority 9,767 18.1 –12.1
Turnout 53,933 71.5 –1.0
Registered electors 75,455
Conservative hold
Swing 9.3 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The new Woking seat will consist of
94.1% of Woking
(5.9% of the present Woking will be in Surrey Heath)
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_371_Woking_Landscape.pdf
