Leader of Suffolk

[BossMan]

County deal- directly elected leader rather than mayor.

[swanarcadian]

Sounds like a reversion to Anglo Saxon chieftains.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Aug 11, 2023 17:21:33 GMT swanarcadian said:

Sounds like a reversion to Anglo Saxon chieftains.

"lædere o sūþfolc"

[finsobruce]

Aug 11, 2023 18:16:51 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Aug 11, 2023 17:21:33 GMT swanarcadian said:

Sounds like a reversion to Anglo Saxon chieftains.

"lædere o sūþfolc"

That's easy for you to say.

[Harry Hayfield]

I found out about this, quite by accident, when I visited Suffolk's headquarters earlier this year and had been led to believe the elections were being held in the same year as the county council elections in 2025. Has this election been confirmed?

[Tony Otim]

The Combined vote totals from all the districts from this May using top vote method*:

Con 67295 (33.0%)
Grn 51011 (25.0%)
Lab 43025 (21.1%)
LD 27711 (13.6%)
Oth (mainly Ind) 14631 (7.2%)


* This has a number of drawbacks:
- no party contested all wards - Con contested 128; Lab 94; Grn 90; LD 70
- There were 4 uncontested wards (all in West Suffolk) - 2 taken by Conservatives and 3 by independents)
- top vote clearly overestimates the vote in situations where, for example, there were 1 Grn and 1 LD for 2 seats.
However it's probably the best that there is.

I think what it shows is that under AV the Conservatives might really struggle here, but as it is they might survive on split opposition. The vote for the opposition parties in some wards will be diluted by them all standing, but this may be counterbalanced by the votes from the wards they didn't stand in. The Greens may be too weak in Ipswich and West Suffolk, Labour's strength limited to Ipswich a few other pockets.

[johnloony]

Aug 13, 2023 16:07:02 GMT Tony Otim said:

The Combined vote totals from all the districts from this May using top vote method*:

Con 67295 (33.0%)
Grn 51011 (25.0%)
Lab 43025 (21.1%)
LD 27711 (13.6%)
Oth (mainly Ind) 14631 (7.2%)


* This has a number of drawbacks:
- no party contested all wards - Con contested 128; Lab 94; Grn 90; LD 70
- There were 4 uncontested wards (all in West Suffolk) - 2 taken by Conservatives and 3 by independents)
- top vote clearly overestimates the vote in situations where, for example, there were 1 Grn and 1 LD for 2 seats.
However it's probably the best that there is.

I think what it shows is that under AV the Conservatives might really struggle here, but as it is they might survive on split opposition. The vote for the opposition parties in some wards will be diluted by them all standing, but this may be counterbalanced by the votes from the wards they didn't stand in. The Greens may be too weak in Ipswich and West Suffolk, Labour's strength limited to Ipswich a few other pockets.

Con 534 per candidate
Green 567 per candidate
Lab 458 per candidate
LD 396 per candidate

[Tony Otim]

Aug 13, 2023 16:18:59 GMT johnloony said:

Aug 13, 2023 16:07:02 GMT Tony Otim said:

The Combined vote totals from all the districts from this May using top vote method*:

Con 67295 (33.0%)
Grn 51011 (25.0%)
Lab 43025 (21.1%)
LD 27711 (13.6%)
Oth (mainly Ind) 14631 (7.2%)


* This has a number of drawbacks:
- no party contested all wards - Con contested 128; Lab 94; Grn 90; LD 70
- There were 4 uncontested wards (all in West Suffolk) - 2 taken by Conservatives and 3 by independents)
- top vote clearly overestimates the vote in situations where, for example, there were 1 Grn and 1 LD for 2 seats.
However it's probably the best that there is.

I think what it shows is that under AV the Conservatives might really struggle here, but as it is they might survive on split opposition. The vote for the opposition parties in some wards will be diluted by them all standing, but this may be counterbalanced by the votes from the wards they didn't stand in. The Greens may be too weak in Ipswich and West Suffolk, Labour's strength limited to Ipswich a few other pockets.

Con 534 per candidate
Green 567 per candidate
Lab 458 per candidate
LD 396 per candidate

Per ward contested, not per candidate...

[Harry Hayfield]

Aug 13, 2023 16:07:02 GMT Tony Otim said:

The Combined vote totals from all the districts from this May using top vote method*:

Con 67295 (33.0%)
Grn 51011 (25.0%)
Lab 43025 (21.1%)
LD 27711 (13.6%)
Oth (mainly Ind) 14631 (7.2%)

In which case the Conservatrives would win with a majority of 16,000 (8%) because the secondary vote has been scrapped by the same party.

[BossMan]

Aug 13, 2023 18:39:39 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Aug 13, 2023 16:07:02 GMT Tony Otim said:

The Combined vote totals from all the districts from this May using top vote method*:

Con 67295 (33.0%)
Grn 51011 (25.0%)
Lab 43025 (21.1%)
LD 27711 (13.6%)
Oth (mainly Ind) 14631 (7.2%)

In which case the Conservatrives would win with a majority of 16,000 (8%) because the secondary vote has been scrapped by the same party.

Have you assumed that the vote will be identical, even though the dataset is incomplete?

[Harry Hayfield]

Aug 13, 2023 22:43:21 GMT BossMan said:

Aug 13, 2023 18:39:39 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

In which case the Conservatrives would win with a majority of 16,000 (8%) because the secondary vote has been scrapped by the same party.

Have you assumed that the vote will be identical, even though the dataset is incomplete?

Not identical, but given I expect there to be a general election on the same day, the Conservative vote will not be supressed.

[The Bishop]

Aug 14, 2023 5:34:19 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Aug 13, 2023 22:43:21 GMT BossMan said:

Have you assumed that the vote will be identical, even though the dataset is incomplete?

Not identical, but given I expect there to be a general election on the same day, the Conservative vote will not be supressed.

<entire forum rushes off to place bets on a late 2024 election>

[matureleft]

Aug 14, 2023 5:34:19 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Aug 13, 2023 22:43:21 GMT BossMan said:

Have you assumed that the vote will be identical, even though the dataset is incomplete?

Not identical, but given I expect there to be a general election on the same day, the Conservative vote will not be supressed.

That's long been my assumption, provided that the Tories can engineer at least some recovery in their fortunes. Call an election with a long campaign period, hope the Tory media comes into line and relentlessly picks at Labour, hope for some opposition false steps, get at least your remaining local government activists motivated (as they'll be defending their seats). 

Mind you, it didn't work in 1997, but the idea is sound. 

The worst option would be to endure a further hammering in local elections, lose a load of local activists who won't bother when you call a general election and hand a further morale boost not just to Labour but to others too.

[uthacalthing]

So if the council leader gets directly elected, then his council gets elected, lets say with the same party winning both, then six months in the councilors decide that he is a chump, (*) how do they get rid of him? If at all?

(*) I still bear the scars and so does the chump

[maxque]

Aug 15, 2023 22:03:40 GMT uthacalthing said:

So if the council leader gets directly elected, then his council gets elected, lets say with the same party winning both, then six months in the councilors decide that he is a chump, (*) how do they get rid of him? If at all?

(*) I still bear the scars and so does the chump

They don't. It's just a rebranded Executive Mayor.

[weld]

Fuck it. I voted Green win. It’s time they won a mayoralty.

[carolus]

I don't think this is happening, at the very least not in 2024. www.lgcplus.com/politics/devolution-and-economic-growth/exclusive-county-delays-devolution-consultation-03-11-2023/

Suffolk is not planning on holding the first elections for a directly-elected leader, known as a mayor is some areas, until May 2025, which is after a general election will have taken place.