The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 20, 2024 12:11:54 GMT
Looking at the data tables I'd shade this poll slightly blue (despite the 1-respondent Lab lead). Lab support draws a lot from people who didn't vote in 2021, and a Con lead emerges if you restrict it to those certain to vote. Houchen running ahead of the Con brand but still a big swing since 2021. Possible Lab could win Cleveland PCC election, I'd think. On the other hand , Tory voters are much more likely to abstain compared with 2021. 2021 Labour abstainers are probably more likely to vote this year. If contests like this come down to getting your own supporters to vote, which out of Tory or Labour do you think has the generally superior ground game at the moment?
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Post by graham on Apr 20, 2024 12:27:36 GMT
On the other hand , Tory voters are much more likely to abstain compared with 2021. 2021 Labour abstainers are probably more likely to vote this year. If contests like this come down to getting your own supporters to vote, which out of Tory or Labour do you think has the generally superior ground game at the moment? Indeed. At low turnout elections postal votes are important too.
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 20, 2024 12:54:45 GMT
Half of all labour voters didn't vote last time and a quarter of Tories didn't. If born out that would mean a huge increase in turnout. Short of actually doubling
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 20, 2024 12:55:53 GMT
Half of all labour voters didn't vote last time and a quarter of Tories didn't. If born out that would mean a huge increase in turnout. Short of actually doubling bare in mind there was a parliamentary by election at the same time last time round
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 20, 2024 12:59:23 GMT
In 2021 turnout went up by 13% from 2017. Likely driven by Hartlepool where turnout was 6 points higher than the total turnout
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 22, 2024 12:22:03 GMT
The polling gives Houchen fairly low name recognition. Given that and given that it's not likely that Labour and the Tories are tied on Teesside in general election polling, it seems somewhat odd that the poll shows him with a decent personal vote.
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Post by threecrowns on Apr 23, 2024 18:27:19 GMT
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Post by threecrowns on Apr 23, 2024 18:39:38 GMT
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 23, 2024 18:55:18 GMT
The polling gives Houchen fairly low name recognition. Given that and given that it's not likely that Labour and the Tories are tied on Teesside in general election polling, it seems somewhat odd that the poll shows him with a decent personal vote. In the West Midlands I can get why people warm to Andy Street. Not so much here. Houchen seems uncharismatic, cronyistic and increasingly highly partisan. The freeport and land sell off is so obviously a bad deal for the region and nearing blatant corruption.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 23, 2024 19:49:48 GMT
The polling gives Houchen fairly low name recognition. Given that and given that it's not likely that Labour and the Tories are tied on Teesside in general election polling, it seems somewhat odd that the poll shows him with a decent personal vote. In the West Midlands I can get why people warm to Andy Street. Not so much here. Houchen seems uncharismatic, cronyistic and increasingly highly partisan. The freeport and land sell off is so obviously a bad deal for the region and nearing blatant corruption. Yet even in the context of the Tories having a decent set of elections in 2021 and having made ongoing progress in the region, his re-election really was overwhelming so there must be something there. Either that or it was a huge vote against Labour and/or the Labour candidate
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 23, 2024 21:10:30 GMT
Cleveland PCC also saw a massive swing towards the Tories in 2021, as did the Hartlepool by-election. It's possible some of that was carry-over from Houchen's personal vote, but that certainly doesn't apply to all of it.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Apr 24, 2024 16:04:16 GMT
Speaking of airports:
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Post by bluelabour on Apr 24, 2024 21:40:38 GMT
Houchen's not having a good run-up to polling day...
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 24, 2024 22:37:37 GMT
Houchen's not having a good run-up to polling day... Surely that's a Labour plot to ruin his life, as every other negative event happening to him.
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Post by graham on Apr 28, 2024 15:18:19 GMT
Labour claims to have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley. Party officials say they are pulling activists out and redeploying them in the West Midlands, where the future of Street, the Tory mayor who is running a highly personal campaign devoid of Conservative branding, is on a knife edge. Labour has been hamstrung by the dire performance of the Labour-run Birmingham council and by opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza. “Houchen will win,” a Labour source said. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.”
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Post by adlai52 on Apr 28, 2024 15:40:14 GMT
Labour claims to have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley. Party officials say they are pulling activists out and redeploying them in the West Midlands, where the future of Street, the Tory mayor who is running a highly personal campaign devoid of Conservative branding, is on a knife edge. Labour has been hamstrung by the dire performance of the Labour-run Birmingham council and by opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza. “Houchen will win,” a Labour source said. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.” Smacks of expectations management at this stage… but maybe they’re seeing something others aren’t and it’s a genuine insight.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 16:18:06 GMT
Labour claims to have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley. Party officials say they are pulling activists out and redeploying them in the West Midlands, where the future of Street, the Tory mayor who is running a highly personal campaign devoid of Conservative branding, is on a knife edge. Labour has been hamstrung by the dire performance of the Labour-run Birmingham council and by opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza. “Houchen will win,” a Labour source said. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.” Smacks of expectations management at this stage… but maybe they’re seeing something others aren’t and it’s a genuine insight. It is an awful big margin to overturn in three years, even with all that’s happened in those three years
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 28, 2024 16:23:34 GMT
Labour claims to have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley. Party officials say they are pulling activists out and redeploying them in the West Midlands, where the future of Street, the Tory mayor who is running a highly personal campaign devoid of Conservative branding, is on a knife edge. Labour has been hamstrung by the dire performance of the Labour-run Birmingham council and by opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza. “Houchen will win,” a Labour source said. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.” Where’s this from?
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Post by tyneguy on Apr 28, 2024 16:52:47 GMT
Labour claims to have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley. Party officials say they are pulling activists out and redeploying them in the West Midlands, where the future of Street, the Tory mayor who is running a highly personal campaign devoid of Conservative branding, is on a knife edge. Labour has been hamstrung by the dire performance of the Labour-run Birmingham council and by opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza. “Houchen will win,” a Labour source said. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.” Where’s this from? Today's Sunday Times - www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-election-rumours-swirl-as-sunak-faces-poll-reckoning-f529lw5xx
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Post by graham on Apr 28, 2024 18:06:51 GMT
Labour claims to have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley. Party officials say they are pulling activists out and redeploying them in the West Midlands, where the future of Street, the Tory mayor who is running a highly personal campaign devoid of Conservative branding, is on a knife edge. Labour has been hamstrung by the dire performance of the Labour-run Birmingham council and by opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza. “Houchen will win,” a Labour source said. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.” Where’s this from? I came across it on PoliticalBetting.com
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