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Post by Ron Swanson on Aug 30, 2023 11:41:07 GMT
West Yorks is the UK’s answer to Michigan, IMO - Lab hold. Under the bonnet, it’ll be interesting to see how well Labour do in the ‘rust belt’ or former coal country here: Normanton, Pontefract, Castleford, Hemsworth, Wakefield etc next May. FPTP gives the Tories their best chance at taking this one day. Even in 2019, the Conservatives and the Brexit Party only got 43.9% between them, compared to Labour’s 46%. You clearly don’t understand or know the area if you think Ponty & Cas are going to end up being represented by a Tory. 2019 was their best chance, if they'd gone with local candidates rather than ones from the CCHQ factory they could have swept the board. Labour hold comfortable majorities on all five local authorities in West Yorkshire, it isn't going anywhere. Just a shame that Labour chose such a crap candidate to have complete tenure over the county. They surely have better available... worrying if they don't!
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 30, 2023 13:25:05 GMT
You clearly don’t understand my post if you think I believe the Conservatives can win this mayoralty in 2024. Ponty and Cas were highly marginal in 2019, along with Hemmy and Normy. 1200 votes in each seat iirc. No one calls it Hemmy. It’s Hemsworth.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 30, 2023 19:45:40 GMT
You clearly don’t understand my post if you think I believe the Conservatives can win this mayoralty in 2024. Ponty and Cas were highly marginal in 2019, along with Hemmy and Normy. 1200 votes in each seat iirc. No one calls it Hemmy. It’s Hemsworth. Ok, but you’re changing the subject.
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 31, 2023 0:56:32 GMT
No one calls it Hemmy. It’s Hemsworth. Ok, but you’re changing the subject. If Labour ever lost Ponty & Cas it may as well pack up and go home.
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Post by batman on Aug 31, 2023 7:52:50 GMT
Well we weren't far away from it last time but we would not have packed up & gone home. History would have followed a similar course to what it has since 2019.
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davidh
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Post by davidh on Aug 31, 2023 8:44:53 GMT
Ok, but you’re changing the subject. If Labour ever lost Ponty & Cas it may as well pack up and go home. If the Brexit Party had stood aside in 2019, as they did in many other constituencies, Labour would almost certainly have lost. Yvette Cooper (Lab) 18,297 (37.9%) Andrew Lee (Con) 17,021 (35.3%) Deneice Florence-Jukes (BxP) 8,032 (16.6%) Tom Gordon (LD) 3,147 (6.5%) Laura Walker (YrK) 1,762 (3.7%) You are letting your hatred of the Tories cloud your judgement. You're also not taking into account the changing / declining political identities and alignments.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 31, 2023 11:42:03 GMT
That latter point can work both ways though, as we are now seeing - many of the "new" Tory supporters are proving rather more fickle than they hoped (and others feared)
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 31, 2023 12:47:49 GMT
Besides, the general sentiment within the Labour Party after the 2019 fiasco was indeed that it might as well pack up and go home.
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weld
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Post by weld on Sept 1, 2023 1:06:29 GMT
That latter point can work both ways though, as we are now seeing - many of the "new" Tory supporters are proving rather more fickle than they hoped (and others feared) It’s almost like a lot of people voted to ‘get Brexit done’ and are returning to their default party now that it is ‘done’.
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Post by batman on Sept 1, 2023 7:22:12 GMT
or some voters are wishing they didn't.
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 1, 2023 7:26:57 GMT
That latter point can work both ways though, as we are now seeing - many of the "new" Tory supporters are proving rather more fickle than they hoped (and others feared) It’s almost like a lot of people voted to ‘get Brexit done’ and are returning to their default party now that it is ‘done’. Within the Ponty & Cas seat the Tories have absolutely no local representation. So the idea that it’s was or is going to go Tory is one for the birds.
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weld
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Post by weld on Sept 1, 2023 7:29:06 GMT
It’s almost like a lot of people voted to ‘get Brexit done’ and are returning to their default party now that it is ‘done’. Within the Ponty & Cas seat the Tories have absolutely no local representation. So the idea that it’s was or is going to go Tory is one for the birds. How many Tory councillors were there in Morley & Outwood in 2015 or Mansfield in 2017 or Rother Valley in 2019?
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davidh
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Post by davidh on Sept 1, 2023 8:47:20 GMT
Within the Ponty & Cas seat the Tories have absolutely no local representation. So the idea that it’s was or is going to go Tory is one for the birds. How many Tory councillors were there in Morley & Outwood in 2015 or Mansfield in 2017 or Rother Valley in 2019? Mark clearly thinks that nothing significant happened in British politics between May 2019 and the general election in December that year. It's a view.
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Post by kvasir on Sept 18, 2023 16:29:04 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Feb 21, 2024 15:23:51 GMT
Liberal Democrat short list Javed Bashir and Cllr Stewart Golton.
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Post by gibbon on Feb 22, 2024 10:58:26 GMT
How many Liberal Democrat leaflets will refer to the issues affecting West Yorkshire and how many about Gaza?
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Post by batman on Mar 9, 2024 11:07:52 GMT
A poll has appeared, but as with the Tees Valley poll this comes with a strong "health warning" because of its shall we say unorthodox methodology :
West Yorkshire Mayoral Election Voting Intention: LAB: 51% (+8) CON: 15% (-14) GRN: 10% (+1) RFM: 9% (+7) LDM: 8% (+3) Yorks: 8% (-2) Don't Knows (18%) + Non Respondents (3%) Removed. Via @censuswide, Feb 2024. Don't have the exact sample dates. Changes w/ 2021.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 9, 2024 11:09:17 GMT
Those figures do look rather more credible than the Tees Valley survey, however.
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 5, 2024 15:43:40 GMT
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Post by kvasir on Apr 6, 2024 8:24:46 GMT
Jonathan Tilt has previously stood for the Freedom Alliance in the past. He appears to be getting into some pretty conspiratorial opinions like the 15 minute city thing. And he wants a national referendum on immigration.
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