|
Post by batman on Apr 28, 2024 9:12:27 GMT
especially with the Lib Dems at only 1%. If that were true some of that would go on the Labour total
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Apr 28, 2024 9:40:31 GMT
I don't tend to set much store by this company's polls TBH. Not saying they're invalid or anything, but I tend to trust others more There's a lot of untested pollsters or pollsters who have made big changes who I'll regard as dubious until they've been through the crucible of a GE. I tend to look at Ipsos/MORI as the gold standard and Opinium were pretty good but they've made a major methodology change and well, either they are right or they will be very wrong from the results its currently producing. I have severe doubts about Savanta/Comedy Results, anything Baxter is involved in and Matthew Goodwin's company. I suspect Redfield/Wilton will turn out to be the new Angus Reid.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Apr 28, 2024 9:42:40 GMT
Previous polls had the Lib Dems on 7% or similar. There are two possibilities. Either 6 out of 7 voters have switched to back Street or Parker, or this poll is wide of the mark. It is possible that the earlier polls showing street losing has changed people's VI. This is worth thinking about. Does polling change VI as much as it measures it? But support for Street here is about the same as in some previous polls - its Labour that is lower (and, perhaps, implausibly low) I don't think Labour is implausibly low, it's been a nothingburger campaign again. I don't think they will be that low, but I don't think its implausible.
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 28, 2024 10:01:31 GMT
I don't tend to set much store by this company's polls TBH. Not saying they're invalid or anything, but I tend to trust others more There's a lot of untested pollsters or pollsters who have made big changes who I'll regard as dubious until they've been through the crucible of a GE. I tend to look at Ipsos/MORI as the gold standard and Opinium were pretty good but they've made a major methodology change and well, either they are right or they will be very wrong from the results its currently producing. I have severe doubts about Savanta/Comedy Results, anything Baxter is involved in and Matthew Goodwin's company. I suspect Redfield/Wilton will turn out to be the new Angus Reid. A lot of radio/TV discussion from Deltapoll - Joe Twyman is very good, knows his stuff. Though he is very handsome helps!
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:21:06 GMT
especially with the Lib Dems at only 1%. If that were true some of that would go on the Labour total And the Gaza protest candidate is also on a relatively modest 3%.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:46:34 GMT
Tell us you never read the thread before posting, without telling us you never read the thread before posting
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Apr 28, 2024 12:25:57 GMT
There's a lot of untested pollsters or pollsters who have made big changes who I'll regard as dubious until they've been through the crucible of a GE. I tend to look at Ipsos/MORI as the gold standard and Opinium were pretty good but they've made a major methodology change and well, either they are right or they will be very wrong from the results its currently producing. I have severe doubts about Savanta/Comedy Results, anything Baxter is involved in and Matthew Goodwin's company. I suspect Redfield/Wilton will turn out to be the new Angus Reid. A lot of radio/TV discussion from Deltapoll - Joe Twyman is very good, knows his stuff. Though he is very handsome helps! Deltapoll did OK in 2019 to be fair. But one man's handsome is another man's basic.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Apr 28, 2024 12:27:07 GMT
especially with the Lib Dems at only 1%. If that were true some of that would go on the Labour total And the Gaza protest candidate is also on a relatively modest 3%. He's not really a Gaza protest candidate, he's a lad lawyer with a Lambo boosting his firm of solicitors.
|
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,170
|
Post by Jack on Apr 28, 2024 12:40:13 GMT
But support for Street here is about the same as in some previous polls - its Labour that is lower (and, perhaps, implausibly low) I don't think Labour is implausibly low, it's been a nothingburger campaign again. I don't think they will be that low, but I don't think its implausible. It's like they couldn't give a toss about this election. There's no policy detail from Parker at all. It's just the generic "CREATE JOBS", "TACKLE CRIME", "REVITALISE HIGH STREETS". Not a single bit of detail on any of these.
|
|
|
Post by edgbaston on Apr 28, 2024 13:06:37 GMT
I don't think Labour is implausibly low, it's been a nothingburger campaign again. I don't think they will be that low, but I don't think its implausible. It's like they couldn't give a toss about this election. There's no policy detail from Parker at all. It's just the generic "CREATE JOBS", "TACKLE CRIME", "REVITALISE HIGH STREETS". Not a single bit of detail on any of these. It’s bizarre because he’s very much a policy wonk, that’s his background and he understands the issues. I think it’s a case of being badly advised, someone in HQ has theorised that in the national environment painting Street as a Tory and presenting Parker as genetic Labour is enough. Maybe it will be? But all parties are going to learn slowly that the electorate in England is becoming much more sophisticated with regard to these mayoral roles.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 28, 2024 13:31:03 GMT
There's no policy detail from Parker at all. It's just the generic "CREATE JOBS", "TACKLE CRIME", "REVITALISE HIGH STREETS". Not a single bit of detail on any of these. Apart from in his manifesto where such detail is normally put.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,372
|
Post by Sibboleth on Apr 28, 2024 14:06:33 GMT
Crosspost: Wasting five minutes of my Sunday to check the detailed tables, and I notice that there's no SES weighting of any kind at all, and that combination is certainly curious. True of their polls for the other contests as well. I'm not sure quite what they're actually measuring. I.e. the above in addition to no sub-regional weighting and a heavy turnout weight.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Apr 29, 2024 12:50:10 GMT
Other half had a letter delivered from Andy Street this morning, not sure of it was paid or volunteer delivery but if the latter, well, its a very rare sighting. No noticeable Tory branding, but there was a reasonably accurate bar chart.
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,985
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 29, 2024 17:16:00 GMT
Sky reporting this YouGov poll. Have we had this one?
West Midlands Mayoral Election Andy Street, Conservative41% Richard Parker, Labour39% Elaine Williams, Reform UK9% Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green6% Akhmed Yakoob, Independent3% Sunny Virk, Liberal Democrat2%
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,005
|
Post by graham on Apr 29, 2024 18:20:46 GMT
Sky reporting this YouGov poll. Have we had this one? West Midlands Mayoral Election Andy Street, Conservative41% Richard Parker, Labour39% Elaine Williams, Reform UK9% Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green6% Akhmed Yakoob, Independent3% Sunny Virk, Liberal Democrat2% This would represent a swing to the Tories compared with the May 2017 Mayoral election.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Apr 29, 2024 20:06:19 GMT
Sky reporting this YouGov poll. Have we had this one? West Midlands Mayoral Election Andy Street, Conservative41% Richard Parker, Labour39% Elaine Williams, Reform UK9% Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green6% Akhmed Yakoob, Independent3% Sunny Virk, Liberal Democrat2% This would represent a swing to the Tories compared with the May 2017 Mayoral election. Considering the personal nature of Mayors and the incumbency factor I don’t think that would be a huge shock
|
|
|
Post by batman on Apr 29, 2024 20:43:26 GMT
Let's say that Street squeaks home & that Houchen manages to win too. That could be a mixed blessing for the Tories as it could lead to Sunak mistaking this as popularity for the Tories nationally and going for an early election. Mind you he will lose whenever he goes anyway.
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Apr 29, 2024 20:54:51 GMT
May 1990? Huge swathes of seats falling to labour but the Tories hold in flagship councils to claim victory
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Apr 29, 2024 21:04:20 GMT
Let's say that Street squeaks home & that Houchen manages to win too. That could be a mixed blessing for the Tories as it could lead to Sunak mistaking this as popularity for the Tories nationally and going for an early election. Mind you he will lose whenever he goes anyway. You’d think they’d really need to look at the wider council results rather than a couple of contests that are closer to being referendums on the individuals on the ballot paper than other types of elections
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Apr 30, 2024 8:01:15 GMT
You’d think they’d really need to look at the wider council results rather than a couple of contests that are closer to being referendums on the individuals on the ballot paper than other types of elections That would suggest a level of competence and campaigning nous that Sunak doesn't possess.
|
|