graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,005
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Post by graham on Apr 22, 2024 19:39:50 GMT
It reminds me somewhat of Livingstone losing the London mayoral election to Johnson in 2008. At that time Livingstone was still quite well regarded - in a way that had ceased to be true by 2012 when he lost again much more narrowly - but he was dragged down by the national unpopularity of Labour and Brown's Government - indeed it was the same month that Labour lost the Crewe & Nantwich by election to the Tories.
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Post by batman on Apr 22, 2024 20:24:56 GMT
Hmm, to some extent yes - but my canvassing in 2008 showed that Livingstone's own popularity had dropped markedly although it was still ahead of his party's at that time, and I'm quite sure that it wasn't just me finding that.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Apr 22, 2024 20:30:38 GMT
I think Livingstone would have defeated Johnson in 2007.
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 370
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Post by mrtoad on Apr 22, 2024 20:32:46 GMT
Yes, I think Livingstone was a net neutral or slight asset in 2008 while he was a definite liability in 2012. In my very liberal north London neighbourhood in 2008 there was substantial dislike of Livingstone among normally left of centre people - people asked why they should bother, and weren't very scared of Johnson. I suspect many of them voted Green or Lib Dem in 2008 and gave Livingstone a second preference at best. In 2012 they were voting for Siobhan Benita or even Johnson.
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 23, 2024 6:56:25 GMT
Had an A4 from Street yesterday, still nothing from anyone else not even the mayoral booklet.
There was a poorly advertised local hustings but I didn't go, my life is complete without having to listen to some of the usual suspects who haven't changed their tune since I was a councillor a decade ago.
My vote ended up with Street both times so far, all I can say is that it won't end up with him this time but I'm honestly not sure I can be bothered to walk to the forum to vote at the moment.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,642
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Post by john07 on Apr 23, 2024 9:36:21 GMT
If they are capable of making such a basic mistake, why should anyone believe anything they publish? I tend to be suspicious of polls for an election where a low turnout is expected regardless of the methodogy employed.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,725
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Post by J.G.Harston on Apr 23, 2024 12:04:42 GMT
If they are capable of making such a basic mistake, why should anyone believe anything they publish? I tend to be suspicious of polls for an election where a low turnout is expected regardless of the methodogy employed. It does highlight the problems with having both a region and an administrative "county" having the same name. One or both should have a different name.
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Post by robert1 on Apr 23, 2024 12:36:06 GMT
We all make mistakes and sometimes they are more important than others. Fair play for admitting the error.
On low turnout elections, always be suspicious. The question 'will you vote' produces an insanely high 'yes', solely because people won't admit to not voting. It's better where the propensity to vote is measured.
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 23, 2024 13:43:21 GMT
If they are capable of making such a basic mistake, why should anyone believe anything they publish? I tend to be suspicious of polls for an election where a low turnout is expected regardless of the methodogy employed. It does highlight the problems with having both a region and an administrative "county" having the same name. One or both should have a different name. The most obvious fix for this would be renaming the region to Mercia (West Mercia would have a less severe case of the same problem, being the name of a police force in one part of the region). The two viable alternative names for the county have massive problems. "Greater Birmingham" would be hugely unpopular everywhere outside the parts that consider themselves Birmingham. And "The Black Country" would be completely inappropriate for an area including Solihull and Coventry.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,372
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 23, 2024 13:50:19 GMT
When speaking the norm is just to add 'the urban' before or 'conurbation' after 'West Midlands' if referring to the conurbation. It's hardly a major issue, especially as the broader West Midlands is just a statistical entity and as the old and not loved West Midlands 'county' exists only for this rather silly post and for ceremonial purposes.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,241
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 23, 2024 13:52:09 GMT
When speaking the norm is just to add 'the urban' before or 'conurbation' after 'West Midlands' if referring to the conurbation. It's hardly a major issue, especially as the broader West Midlands is just a statistical entity and as the old and not loved West Midlands 'county' exists only for this rather silly post and for ceremonial purposes. The police area is also the met county.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,372
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 23, 2024 13:56:30 GMT
When speaking the norm is just to add 'the urban' before or 'conurbation' after 'West Midlands' if referring to the conurbation. It's hardly a major issue, especially as the broader West Midlands is just a statistical entity and as the old and not loved West Midlands 'county' exists only for this rather silly post and for ceremonial purposes. The police area is also the met county. We have far too many police forces in this country. It is perhaps mildly surprising that the widespread use of 'West Midlands' managed to survive the automatic addition for a while of 'Serious Crime Squad'.
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Post by gibbon on Apr 23, 2024 14:12:20 GMT
In 2008 Livingstone, like many Labour candidates, was not helped by the abolition of the 10p tax rate for lower paid earners. By 2012 he had fallen out with members of the Jewish community in London which voted heavily against him. Labour gained the Barnet and Camden by about 20000 votes while Johnson won that area by a similar majority. While Andy Street may be popular as a 'non-political' mayor he is still standing as a Conservative and not as an Independent. It is that which may cost him votes.
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xenon
Non-Aligned
Posts: 274
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Post by xenon on Apr 23, 2024 16:26:10 GMT
The region should be called Mercia. There is already a West Mercia police area covering the westernmost three counties. The former county can keep the West Midlands name, or preferably Coventry can be shuffled off back to Warwickshire and with the rest called "Birmingham and Black Country" or something (it should really be Greater Birmingham but I can only imagine the pitchforks).
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 23, 2024 17:21:07 GMT
The region should be called Mercia. There is already a West Mercia police area covering the westernmost three counties. The former county can keep the West Midlands name, or preferably Coventry can be shuffled off back to Warwickshire and with the rest called "Birmingham and Black Country" or something (it should really be Greater Birmingham but I can only imagine the pitchforks). Even better we could abolish the regions altogether, what purpose do they serve
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Post by islington on Apr 23, 2024 17:38:58 GMT
The region should be called Mercia. There is already a West Mercia police area covering the westernmost three counties. The former county can keep the West Midlands name, or preferably Coventry can be shuffled off back to Warwickshire and with the rest called "Birmingham and Black Country" or something (it should really be Greater Birmingham but I can only imagine the pitchforks). Even better we could abolish the regions altogether, what purpose do they serve What of their indispensable role in the apportionment of Parliamentary seats?
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 23, 2024 18:05:22 GMT
The region should be called Mercia. There is already a West Mercia police area covering the westernmost three counties. The former county can keep the West Midlands name, or preferably Coventry can be shuffled off back to Warwickshire and with the rest called "Birmingham and Black Country" or something (it should really be Greater Birmingham but I can only imagine the pitchforks). Even better we could abolish the regions altogether, what purpose do they serve It is extremely useful to have standardised statistical areas that are larger than a ceremonial county and smaller than England. And, more importantly, they serve to break up Westminster boundary reviews into more manageable chunks for the English constituencies.
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 23, 2024 18:46:22 GMT
Even better we could abolish the regions altogether, what purpose do they serve It is extremely useful to have standardised statistical areas that are larger than a ceremonial county and smaller than England. And, more importantly, they serve to break up Westminster boundary reviews into more manageable chunks for the English constituencies. Is it? what policy choices would you make in North Yorkshire based on the statistics from Yorkshire and the Humber. Similarly the neglect of poorer places in the South East on the basis of Wealth in an arc south, west, and north worst of London, isn’t great. The regions as they’re currently arranged, are worked mainly to dampen a class analysis, and get people up north to develop an irrational resentment towards London. As for parliamentary divisions many posters have shown in the Boundaries section of the forum the better layout of seats that could be achieved by grouping counties in different regions. An awkward county on the edge of a present region can have ripple effects across the entire area totally unnecessarily.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 23, 2024 19:12:29 GMT
The region should be called Mercia. There is already a West Mercia police area covering the westernmost three counties. The former county can keep the West Midlands name, or preferably Coventry can be shuffled off back to Warwickshire and with the rest called "Birmingham and Black Country" or something (it should really be Greater Birmingham but I can only imagine the pitchforks). Even better we could abolish the regions altogether, what purpose do they serve They were effectively abolished in 2011 when the Government Offices for the Regions were abolished, and ceased to have any significant existence when the UK ceased to send Members to the European Parliament in 2020.
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Post by Yaffles on Apr 23, 2024 19:38:24 GMT
Even better we could abolish the regions altogether, what purpose do they serve They were effectively abolished in 2011 when the Government Offices for the Regions were abolished, and ceased to have any significant existence when the UK ceased to send Members to the European Parliament in 2020. In administrative terms but they are used by ONS for statistics.
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