Post by Robert Waller on Aug 11, 2023 15:16:01 GMT
I would like to start with a quote from Pete Whitehead on the ‘current seat’ thread, offering a summary of the boundary situation here that I could not possibly better.
Alone of the London boroughs, Sutton is subject to no meaningful boundary changes, both seats surviving intact and with only a realignment with new ward boundaries which transfers about 200 voters net from Sutton & Cheam to Carshalton & Wallington.
Between 1997 and 2019 one phenomenon of English electoral politics was the semi-circular arc of five Liberal Democrat constituencies in outer south-west London – and indeed the arc of their electoral narratives. These were: Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston & Surbiton, Sutton & Cheam, and Carshalton & Wallington. They were not always won by the Liberal Democrats every time, but they were all won by them more often than not in that time period. In some ways, though, Carshalton and Wallington is the odd one out. It was the only one which did not fall to the Conservatives in the catastrophe that afflicted the Liberal Democrats in 2015. On the other hand it was the only one of these that the Tories gained in December 2019.
This may perhaps be explained by its different demographic characteristics, and the consequent political effects. Of all the five seats this is the most ‘down-market’ in terms of socio-economic class, and, closely related, education. Let us consider, for example the percentage of residents with level 4 or above educational qualifications (roughly equivalent to having a degree) in the most recent (2021) Census; Carshalton and Wallington’s figure is 37.4%, slightly higher than the England and Wales average (33.8%) but low compared with the Greater London average (46.7%).
Sutton and Cheam, though, was 42%, Kingston/Surbiton 49%, Twickenham 58% and Richmond Park 64% (third highest of all 575 seats in England and Wales in 2021). It is widely accepted that the single most important factor in the 2019 general election results was attitude towards Brexit, and that this in turn was strongly related to education. In the 2016 referendum Carshalton and Wallington is estimated to be one of the minority of Greater London seats that voted to ‘leave’, by around 56% to 44%. By contrast Sutton and Cheam’s ‘Brexit’ figure was only 51%, and the other three in the ‘Lib Dem crescent’ all voted heavily to remain – and all three were easily won in 2019.
Tom Brake had built up a substantial personal following over his 22 years as MP, but it was not enough to repel the ‘get Brexit done’ surge. Nor was the long term and continued Liberal Democrat strength in the Sutton council area. Despite the semi-comic reputation of Carshalton Beeches as a fashionable ex-Surrey top residential area, the Carshalton and Wallington constituency has for decades been far from iron-clad Conservative territory in either local government or parliamentary representation. The Beeches are not socially typical of the division as a whole – in the 2021 census MSOA that covers that area, there were 27% in higher professional and managerial occupations. For a start Carshalton & Wallington includes part of the giant inter-war council estate of St Helier, shared with the Mitcham and Morden seat in the borough of Merton (7% higher prof/man). As well as Carshalton itself, its centre attractively set around a pond, the seat includes the communities of Beddington and Wallington. There is another large council estate in Roundshaw, south Beddington, the site of the former Croydon Airport (9% higher professional and managerial). Also included are more downscale terraced and semi-detached housing areas further towards the centre of London in the Wandle Valley, for example in Hackbridge and The Wrythe wards (16% and 10% respectively).
More significantly, it should be borne in mind that Carshalton & Wallington forms one of the two seats in the London Borough of Sutton. Sutton stepwise, as the Americans might say, became one of the strongest Liberal Democrat fortresses in England over the four decades. After taking minority control of the council in 1986, and an overall majority four years later, in 1998 the Liberal Democrats won 46 seats there (including Carshalton Beeches, easily), the Conservatives and Labour just five apiece. The Sutton councillor (Carshalton Central ward) Tom Brake ousted the Conservative MP Nigel Forman in one of five Liberal Democrat gains in outer south-west London in the 1997 General Election as the Tories lost no less than 16% of the share of the vote. As in the borough elections, the Lib Dems showed that they can build on success, and in 2001 Brake doubled his lead, and then became established like his municipal colleagues holding on four more times, albeit usually narrowly, until his eventual defeat by Elliot Colburn in 2019.
In the most recent council elections in May 2022 the Liberal Democrats were much stronger in this parliamentary division than in Sutton and Cheam. If the votes are added up across the wards In Carshalton & Wallington, they achieved 37.1%, compared with 27.7% for the Conservatives and 17.7% for Labour (thanks to Adam Gray for the figures), whereas the Tories were narrowly ahead in Sutton & Cheam. The situation is somewhat clouded by the presence of localists such as the Independents who won all three seats in Beddington ward. It should be remembered that the Liberal Democrats were the incumbent administration in Sutton borough in 2022, and thus on the defensive, and did suffer some substantial negative swings since 2018 in municipal contests. There were also successes for the other major parties, with the Conservatives taking two of the three in Carshalton South & Clockhouse (which is an oddly detached part of Coulsdon), two of the three in St Helier West and (there is a pattern here) two of the three in Beddington South & Roundshaw. Labour got back onto the council after scoring blanks since 2002 by gaining the two seats available in Hackbridge from the LDs, and finished top of the poll in St Helier West. However the LDs swept the board in Wallington North, Wallington South, The Wrythe, Carshalton Central, and they did retain overall control of Sutton borough, albeit with a reduced majority of 2.
Once the Brexit fog has cleared the Liberal Democrats would again be very strong contenders again here, even without Tom Brake’s personal vote. Europe may have been the reason why Tom Brake was the only LD MP in London to be able to hang on in 2015. His share then actually declined more than his colleague Paul Burstow next door in Sutton and Cheam, for example, but the Conservatives did not do as well, with the UKIP share rising by the most in the five seats under comparison. Ironically Brake was his party’s lead spokesman on Brexit issues, and his constituency’s Euro-scepticism did him in, in the end. But while it may be the end of the UK in the EU, it was not definitively the end for the Liberal Democrats in Carshalton and Wallington.
This is one of those seats where the application of uniform swings from national opinion polls to a future general election is particularly unlikely to prove accurate. Although there is certainly a potential substantial Labour vote in Carshalton & Wallington, the history of both parliamentary and local contests over many decades now shows that tactical voting on a large scale should benefit the Liberal Democrats. Nor should the Conservative advances in the 2022 London borough election have been seen as a harbinger that they would hold the Westminster seat. In that case the local ‘government’ was in the hands of the LDs, who were therefore likely to suffer adverse reactions, but in 2024 itw as very definitely a national Conservative administration, of 14 years plus duration, that was on the receiving end of the incoming flak – which was heavy. Despite the double incumbency that could have benefited Elliot Colburn after five years as the local MP, with the familiar figure of Tom Brake being replaced by The Wrythe councillor Bobby Dean, Carshalton & Wallington was one of the best chances of a gain in Greater London for the Liberal Democrats.
Indeed in the election called by Rishi Sunak in July 2024, the Tory share dropped by 16%. This time the European issue and its legacy may have again helped the Lib Dems by splitting the right wing, as the Reform party finished a strong fourth with nearly 13%. All this enabled Bobby Dean to win by nearly 8,000, even though the LD share only increased by 2% since 2019. The semi=circle of five was re-established.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 14.3% 462/575
Owner occupied 64.8% 316/575
Private rented 15.9% 396/575
Social rented 19.3% 168/575
White 68.7% 474/575
Black 7.4% 90/575
Asian 15.9% 91/575
Managerial & professional 36.9% 177/575
Routine & Semi-routine 18.8% 448/575
Degree level 37.4% 156/575
No qualifications 16.1% 370/575
Students 6.8% 202/575
General Election 2024: Carshalton and Wallington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Bobby Dean 20,126 43.1 +2.0
Conservative Elliot Colburn 12,221 26.2 –16.2
Labour Hersh Thaker 6,108 13.1 +0.7
Reform UK Elizabeth Cooper 5,941 12.7 +10.6
Green Tracey Hague 1,517 3.3 +1.8
Workers Party Atif Rashid 441 0.9 N/A
CPA Ashley Dickenson 231 0.5 +0.1
SDP Steve Kelleher 85 0.2 N/A
LD Majority 7,905 16.9 N/A
Turnout 46,670 62.8 –4.5
Registered electors 74,362
Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative
Swing 9.1 C to LD
General Election 2019: Carshalton and Wallington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Elliot Colburn 20,822 42.4 +4.1
Liberal Democrats Tom Brake 20,193 41.1 +0.1
Labour Ahmad Wattoo 6,081 12.4 -6.0
Brexit Party James Woudhuysen 1,043 2.1 New
Green Tracey Hague 759 1.5 -0.5
CPA Ashley Dickenson 200 0.4 Steady 0.0
C Majority 629 1.3 N/A
Turnout 49,098 67.3 -4.3
Registered electors 72,926
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats
Swing +2.0 LD to C
Boundary Changes
The new Carshalton and Wallington seat will consist of
99.8% of Carshalton and Wallington
0.4% of Sutton and Cheam
0.1% of Mitcham and Morden
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_119_Carshalton%20and%20Wallington_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Between 1997 and 2019 one phenomenon of English electoral politics was the semi-circular arc of five Liberal Democrat constituencies in outer south-west London – and indeed the arc of their electoral narratives. These were: Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston & Surbiton, Sutton & Cheam, and Carshalton & Wallington. They were not always won by the Liberal Democrats every time, but they were all won by them more often than not in that time period. In some ways, though, Carshalton and Wallington is the odd one out. It was the only one which did not fall to the Conservatives in the catastrophe that afflicted the Liberal Democrats in 2015. On the other hand it was the only one of these that the Tories gained in December 2019.
This may perhaps be explained by its different demographic characteristics, and the consequent political effects. Of all the five seats this is the most ‘down-market’ in terms of socio-economic class, and, closely related, education. Let us consider, for example the percentage of residents with level 4 or above educational qualifications (roughly equivalent to having a degree) in the most recent (2021) Census; Carshalton and Wallington’s figure is 37.4%, slightly higher than the England and Wales average (33.8%) but low compared with the Greater London average (46.7%).
Sutton and Cheam, though, was 42%, Kingston/Surbiton 49%, Twickenham 58% and Richmond Park 64% (third highest of all 575 seats in England and Wales in 2021). It is widely accepted that the single most important factor in the 2019 general election results was attitude towards Brexit, and that this in turn was strongly related to education. In the 2016 referendum Carshalton and Wallington is estimated to be one of the minority of Greater London seats that voted to ‘leave’, by around 56% to 44%. By contrast Sutton and Cheam’s ‘Brexit’ figure was only 51%, and the other three in the ‘Lib Dem crescent’ all voted heavily to remain – and all three were easily won in 2019.
Tom Brake had built up a substantial personal following over his 22 years as MP, but it was not enough to repel the ‘get Brexit done’ surge. Nor was the long term and continued Liberal Democrat strength in the Sutton council area. Despite the semi-comic reputation of Carshalton Beeches as a fashionable ex-Surrey top residential area, the Carshalton and Wallington constituency has for decades been far from iron-clad Conservative territory in either local government or parliamentary representation. The Beeches are not socially typical of the division as a whole – in the 2021 census MSOA that covers that area, there were 27% in higher professional and managerial occupations. For a start Carshalton & Wallington includes part of the giant inter-war council estate of St Helier, shared with the Mitcham and Morden seat in the borough of Merton (7% higher prof/man). As well as Carshalton itself, its centre attractively set around a pond, the seat includes the communities of Beddington and Wallington. There is another large council estate in Roundshaw, south Beddington, the site of the former Croydon Airport (9% higher professional and managerial). Also included are more downscale terraced and semi-detached housing areas further towards the centre of London in the Wandle Valley, for example in Hackbridge and The Wrythe wards (16% and 10% respectively).
More significantly, it should be borne in mind that Carshalton & Wallington forms one of the two seats in the London Borough of Sutton. Sutton stepwise, as the Americans might say, became one of the strongest Liberal Democrat fortresses in England over the four decades. After taking minority control of the council in 1986, and an overall majority four years later, in 1998 the Liberal Democrats won 46 seats there (including Carshalton Beeches, easily), the Conservatives and Labour just five apiece. The Sutton councillor (Carshalton Central ward) Tom Brake ousted the Conservative MP Nigel Forman in one of five Liberal Democrat gains in outer south-west London in the 1997 General Election as the Tories lost no less than 16% of the share of the vote. As in the borough elections, the Lib Dems showed that they can build on success, and in 2001 Brake doubled his lead, and then became established like his municipal colleagues holding on four more times, albeit usually narrowly, until his eventual defeat by Elliot Colburn in 2019.
In the most recent council elections in May 2022 the Liberal Democrats were much stronger in this parliamentary division than in Sutton and Cheam. If the votes are added up across the wards In Carshalton & Wallington, they achieved 37.1%, compared with 27.7% for the Conservatives and 17.7% for Labour (thanks to Adam Gray for the figures), whereas the Tories were narrowly ahead in Sutton & Cheam. The situation is somewhat clouded by the presence of localists such as the Independents who won all three seats in Beddington ward. It should be remembered that the Liberal Democrats were the incumbent administration in Sutton borough in 2022, and thus on the defensive, and did suffer some substantial negative swings since 2018 in municipal contests. There were also successes for the other major parties, with the Conservatives taking two of the three in Carshalton South & Clockhouse (which is an oddly detached part of Coulsdon), two of the three in St Helier West and (there is a pattern here) two of the three in Beddington South & Roundshaw. Labour got back onto the council after scoring blanks since 2002 by gaining the two seats available in Hackbridge from the LDs, and finished top of the poll in St Helier West. However the LDs swept the board in Wallington North, Wallington South, The Wrythe, Carshalton Central, and they did retain overall control of Sutton borough, albeit with a reduced majority of 2.
Once the Brexit fog has cleared the Liberal Democrats would again be very strong contenders again here, even without Tom Brake’s personal vote. Europe may have been the reason why Tom Brake was the only LD MP in London to be able to hang on in 2015. His share then actually declined more than his colleague Paul Burstow next door in Sutton and Cheam, for example, but the Conservatives did not do as well, with the UKIP share rising by the most in the five seats under comparison. Ironically Brake was his party’s lead spokesman on Brexit issues, and his constituency’s Euro-scepticism did him in, in the end. But while it may be the end of the UK in the EU, it was not definitively the end for the Liberal Democrats in Carshalton and Wallington.
This is one of those seats where the application of uniform swings from national opinion polls to a future general election is particularly unlikely to prove accurate. Although there is certainly a potential substantial Labour vote in Carshalton & Wallington, the history of both parliamentary and local contests over many decades now shows that tactical voting on a large scale should benefit the Liberal Democrats. Nor should the Conservative advances in the 2022 London borough election have been seen as a harbinger that they would hold the Westminster seat. In that case the local ‘government’ was in the hands of the LDs, who were therefore likely to suffer adverse reactions, but in 2024 itw as very definitely a national Conservative administration, of 14 years plus duration, that was on the receiving end of the incoming flak – which was heavy. Despite the double incumbency that could have benefited Elliot Colburn after five years as the local MP, with the familiar figure of Tom Brake being replaced by The Wrythe councillor Bobby Dean, Carshalton & Wallington was one of the best chances of a gain in Greater London for the Liberal Democrats.
Indeed in the election called by Rishi Sunak in July 2024, the Tory share dropped by 16%. This time the European issue and its legacy may have again helped the Lib Dems by splitting the right wing, as the Reform party finished a strong fourth with nearly 13%. All this enabled Bobby Dean to win by nearly 8,000, even though the LD share only increased by 2% since 2019. The semi=circle of five was re-established.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 14.3% 462/575
Owner occupied 64.8% 316/575
Private rented 15.9% 396/575
Social rented 19.3% 168/575
White 68.7% 474/575
Black 7.4% 90/575
Asian 15.9% 91/575
Managerial & professional 36.9% 177/575
Routine & Semi-routine 18.8% 448/575
Degree level 37.4% 156/575
No qualifications 16.1% 370/575
Students 6.8% 202/575
General Election 2024: Carshalton and Wallington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Bobby Dean 20,126 43.1 +2.0
Conservative Elliot Colburn 12,221 26.2 –16.2
Labour Hersh Thaker 6,108 13.1 +0.7
Reform UK Elizabeth Cooper 5,941 12.7 +10.6
Green Tracey Hague 1,517 3.3 +1.8
Workers Party Atif Rashid 441 0.9 N/A
CPA Ashley Dickenson 231 0.5 +0.1
SDP Steve Kelleher 85 0.2 N/A
LD Majority 7,905 16.9 N/A
Turnout 46,670 62.8 –4.5
Registered electors 74,362
Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative
Swing 9.1 C to LD
General Election 2019: Carshalton and Wallington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Elliot Colburn 20,822 42.4 +4.1
Liberal Democrats Tom Brake 20,193 41.1 +0.1
Labour Ahmad Wattoo 6,081 12.4 -6.0
Brexit Party James Woudhuysen 1,043 2.1 New
Green Tracey Hague 759 1.5 -0.5
CPA Ashley Dickenson 200 0.4 Steady 0.0
C Majority 629 1.3 N/A
Turnout 49,098 67.3 -4.3
Registered electors 72,926
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats
Swing +2.0 LD to C
Boundary Changes
The new Carshalton and Wallington seat will consist of
99.8% of Carshalton and Wallington
0.4% of Sutton and Cheam
0.1% of Mitcham and Morden
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_119_Carshalton%20and%20Wallington_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 20822 | 42.4% |
| LD | 20193 | 41.1% |
| Lab | 6081 | 12.4% |
| Brexit | 1043 | 2.1% |
| Green | 759 | 1.6% |
| Oth | 200 | 0.4% |
| Majority | 629 | 1.3% |
