Post by Robert Waller on Aug 10, 2023 23:56:08 GMT
Easington is one of these seats most well known not because of its marginality (it has not changed hands since its creation over 70 years ago) nor because its name reflects a well known part of the country (most people are unlikely to have a clue where it might be) but because of association with a much better known and distinctive MP. In the case of Easington, that honourable member was Emanuel ‘Manny’ Shinwell, who although born in the East End of London and growing up in Glasgow, which forever contributed his accent, was an MP in effect for this seat in eastern County Durham from 1935 to 1970, when he retired at the age of 85. He then entered the House of Lords where he remained active almost until his death at the age of 101 in 1986. That is accepting that his seat changed its name to Easington in 1950, previously being known as Seaham. As such, it may perhaps claim to be the site of the humiliation of an even more well-known member. Ramsay MacDonald had transferred to Seaham in 1929, replacing Sidney Webb of LSE, Fabian Society and ‘and Beatrice’ fame. He therefore sat for the seat during his second minority administration, retained it as National Labour leader in 1931 after the great split for which he was held responsible by so many socialists, but lost by over 20,000 to Shinwell in 1935. Not surprisingly, Easington’s MPs since 1970 have not been as prominent as these predecessors.
The reason why the Easington name first appeared in 1950 was that the largest community, for local government purposes, known as the Urban District of Seaham Harbour, had been transferred to Houghton le Spring. But when Seaham returned in 1983 the seat name was not changed. By that time Urban Districts no longer existed, and its name survived merely in one ward of the Easington District council created in 1973. From 1950 Easington constituency had been a very rare bird in that it was constituted by the Boundary Commission to be composed entirely of Rural Districts, first that of Easington then later that of Stockton as well. However Easington Rural District should not be mistaken for a pastoral idyll.
Coal mining was the dominant force here, economically, socially and politically, for most of the 20th century. It was characterised by the big ex-colliery villages near the coast: Horden, Murton, Easington itself; mining lasted longer here than anywhere else in Durham, as the deep seams which extend beneath the North Sea were tapped long after the reserves of west Durham were worked out. Dawdon and Murton collieries both lasted until 1991, Easington itself till 1993. The two biggest population centres, though, are Seaham and the New Town of Peterlee. New Towns in Durham do not share the volatility of their southern counterparts, and this example, named after the Durham-born international miners’ union leader, Peter Lee, has remained largely loyal to Labour: Peterlee East in every local election since 1985, Peterlee West with occasional flirtations with Liberal Democrats (1989, 1993, 2008) and more recently - as in 2021 - with the North East Party.
Overall, though, the Easington seat has been associated with monolithic Labour hegemony. In 2001 John Cummings achieved the largest numerical majority of any of the 659 constituencies, over 19,000 despite the slump of turnout that year, nationally to under 60%, here to just 52%. If the main reason why the UK wide turnout slipped was the inevitability of a second Blair landslide, the result in Easington was even more of a foregone conclusion. In both 2001 and 2005 it was the second safest seat in percentage terms after Bootle alone. This was archetypal ‘weighing the vote’ country.
That is not really the case any more. If we look at the Labour share of the vote in general elections, there is a clear trend of decline. They achieved over 80% in 1997, 71% in 2005, 59% in 2010. There was then only a slight recovery to 61% in 2015 and 63% in 2017, before a precipitous slump to less than half the total vote in December 2019, just 45.5%. One major reason is not hard to find. In 2015 UKIP had taken over from the Liberal Democrats in second place, then in 2019 the Brexit party took nearly 20%, and the Johnson Conservatives, promising to ‘get it done’, 26.4% - only narrowly surpassed in the entire history of Easington in a straight fight in February 1974. Easington had voted to Leave the EU by around 66% to 34% in 2016.
It is also true that a glance at the demographic characteristics of Easington constituency do not look very favourable to a London based 'rainbow' party committed to multiculturalism and liberal social policies. The 2021 census found that the residents were still over 98% white. In 2011 over 96% were born in England, the third highest of any seat. In the 2021 census only 21% held educational degrees, well into the bottom 20 in England and Wales, and those without qualifications were in the top decile on that score. A group of indicators attest to the tough lives and lifestyles in these ex-mining communities: the seat has exceptionally high numbers self-ascribing bad health, and on the list of the long term sick and disabled. These numbers are not associated with an especially aged population either. This is a very working class constituency in an age when class is no longer strongly correlated with the level of Labour support.
That is not to say that it looks like Easington will actually become marginal, though. In December 2019 despite that minority vote share Grahame Morris still had a lead of over 6,500 at a time when ex-mining seats in Durham like Bishop Auckland, Sedgefield and NW Durham were being lost, and by large majorities too. In the most recent Durham unitary authority elections in May 2021 Labour won most of the wards within Easington, losing only as mentioned above to regionalists in Peterlee East and to Independents in Shotton & South Hetton. Other national parties had no success.
In the current round of boundary changes it looked at first as if Seaham might make a return to the seat name, as the initial proposals suggested a pairing with the other main town, Peterlee. But in the much revised second report, unhanged in the final recommendations in June 2023, the existing Easington name was restored. The only changes will be to add around one eighth of Sedgefield (8,000 electors) in the shape of the Wingate ward and the Thornley section of Trimdon & Thornley ward. Both of these are strong Labour areas in local contests, so their notional lead should be slightly bolstered, even before any positive swing following the replacement of the Brexit issue with matters far less favourable in this neck of the woods to the Conservative government.
The last scene of Get Carter (the highly atmospheric and supremely cynical original, with Michael Caine, not the travesty of a Hollywood remake) was filmed at the south end of this constituency, on the beach near the former Blackhall Colliery. With the dispassionate execution of the central character, leaving no winners, it seems somewhat fitting for a seat with a sense of a loss of purpose, so much ill health, and recent partial rejection of the party of its initial ideals and to which it was once so loyal. It will be a serious test of Keir Starmer’s party not to win here - that is guaranteed - but to see if it can regain the enthusiasm of the voters in Easington, in a seat where the turnout has not even reached 60% since 1997.
2011 Census, old boundaries, ranks UK
I shall reproduce these for information as some are not available yet for 2021 or for the new seat, unless bjornhattan can find / especially create them!
Age 65+ 17.7% 258/650
In bad health 8.2% 5/650
Very good health 39.7% 646/650
Owner-occupied 63.8% 410/650
Private rented 11.8% 471 /650
Social rented 22.6% 154/650
White 98.7% 28/650
Black 0.1% 641/650
Asian 0.6% 603/650
Born in England 96.5% 3/650
Managerial & professional 19.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 38.2%
(Routine 19.6% 6/650)
Long term sick or disabled 9.4% 14/650
Employed in electricity, gas etc supply 3.1% 3/650
Degree level 15.3% 625/650
No qualifications 33.5% 30/650
Students 6.5% 373/650
2021 Census, new boundaries, ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 20.3% 232/575
Owner occupied 59.8% 403/575
Private rented 17.2% 325/575 high proportional increase
Social rented 23.0% 88/575
White 98.1% 8/575
Black 0.2% 556/575
Asian 0.9% 543.575
Managerial & professional 21.6% 538/575
Routine & Semi-routine 31.6% 45/575
Degree level 21.2% 558/575
No qualifications 26.2% 30/575
Students 5.4% 314/575
General Election 2019: Easington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Grahame Morris 15,723 45.5 -18.2
Conservative Clare Ambrosino 9,142 26.4 +3.7
Brexit Party Julie Maughan 6,744 19.5 New
Liberal Democrats Dominic Haney 1,526 4.4 +3.1
North East Susan McDonnell 1,448 4.2 -2.4
Lab Majority 6,581 19.0 -21.9
2019 electorate 61,182
Turnout 34,583 56.5 -1.9
Labour hold
Swings
10.95 Lab to C
18.85 Lab to Brexit
Boundary Changes
The new Easington seat will consist of
100% of Easington
12.7% of Sedgefield
0.7% of City of Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_190_Easington_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
The reason why the Easington name first appeared in 1950 was that the largest community, for local government purposes, known as the Urban District of Seaham Harbour, had been transferred to Houghton le Spring. But when Seaham returned in 1983 the seat name was not changed. By that time Urban Districts no longer existed, and its name survived merely in one ward of the Easington District council created in 1973. From 1950 Easington constituency had been a very rare bird in that it was constituted by the Boundary Commission to be composed entirely of Rural Districts, first that of Easington then later that of Stockton as well. However Easington Rural District should not be mistaken for a pastoral idyll.
Coal mining was the dominant force here, economically, socially and politically, for most of the 20th century. It was characterised by the big ex-colliery villages near the coast: Horden, Murton, Easington itself; mining lasted longer here than anywhere else in Durham, as the deep seams which extend beneath the North Sea were tapped long after the reserves of west Durham were worked out. Dawdon and Murton collieries both lasted until 1991, Easington itself till 1993. The two biggest population centres, though, are Seaham and the New Town of Peterlee. New Towns in Durham do not share the volatility of their southern counterparts, and this example, named after the Durham-born international miners’ union leader, Peter Lee, has remained largely loyal to Labour: Peterlee East in every local election since 1985, Peterlee West with occasional flirtations with Liberal Democrats (1989, 1993, 2008) and more recently - as in 2021 - with the North East Party.
Overall, though, the Easington seat has been associated with monolithic Labour hegemony. In 2001 John Cummings achieved the largest numerical majority of any of the 659 constituencies, over 19,000 despite the slump of turnout that year, nationally to under 60%, here to just 52%. If the main reason why the UK wide turnout slipped was the inevitability of a second Blair landslide, the result in Easington was even more of a foregone conclusion. In both 2001 and 2005 it was the second safest seat in percentage terms after Bootle alone. This was archetypal ‘weighing the vote’ country.
That is not really the case any more. If we look at the Labour share of the vote in general elections, there is a clear trend of decline. They achieved over 80% in 1997, 71% in 2005, 59% in 2010. There was then only a slight recovery to 61% in 2015 and 63% in 2017, before a precipitous slump to less than half the total vote in December 2019, just 45.5%. One major reason is not hard to find. In 2015 UKIP had taken over from the Liberal Democrats in second place, then in 2019 the Brexit party took nearly 20%, and the Johnson Conservatives, promising to ‘get it done’, 26.4% - only narrowly surpassed in the entire history of Easington in a straight fight in February 1974. Easington had voted to Leave the EU by around 66% to 34% in 2016.
It is also true that a glance at the demographic characteristics of Easington constituency do not look very favourable to a London based 'rainbow' party committed to multiculturalism and liberal social policies. The 2021 census found that the residents were still over 98% white. In 2011 over 96% were born in England, the third highest of any seat. In the 2021 census only 21% held educational degrees, well into the bottom 20 in England and Wales, and those without qualifications were in the top decile on that score. A group of indicators attest to the tough lives and lifestyles in these ex-mining communities: the seat has exceptionally high numbers self-ascribing bad health, and on the list of the long term sick and disabled. These numbers are not associated with an especially aged population either. This is a very working class constituency in an age when class is no longer strongly correlated with the level of Labour support.
That is not to say that it looks like Easington will actually become marginal, though. In December 2019 despite that minority vote share Grahame Morris still had a lead of over 6,500 at a time when ex-mining seats in Durham like Bishop Auckland, Sedgefield and NW Durham were being lost, and by large majorities too. In the most recent Durham unitary authority elections in May 2021 Labour won most of the wards within Easington, losing only as mentioned above to regionalists in Peterlee East and to Independents in Shotton & South Hetton. Other national parties had no success.
In the current round of boundary changes it looked at first as if Seaham might make a return to the seat name, as the initial proposals suggested a pairing with the other main town, Peterlee. But in the much revised second report, unhanged in the final recommendations in June 2023, the existing Easington name was restored. The only changes will be to add around one eighth of Sedgefield (8,000 electors) in the shape of the Wingate ward and the Thornley section of Trimdon & Thornley ward. Both of these are strong Labour areas in local contests, so their notional lead should be slightly bolstered, even before any positive swing following the replacement of the Brexit issue with matters far less favourable in this neck of the woods to the Conservative government.
The last scene of Get Carter (the highly atmospheric and supremely cynical original, with Michael Caine, not the travesty of a Hollywood remake) was filmed at the south end of this constituency, on the beach near the former Blackhall Colliery. With the dispassionate execution of the central character, leaving no winners, it seems somewhat fitting for a seat with a sense of a loss of purpose, so much ill health, and recent partial rejection of the party of its initial ideals and to which it was once so loyal. It will be a serious test of Keir Starmer’s party not to win here - that is guaranteed - but to see if it can regain the enthusiasm of the voters in Easington, in a seat where the turnout has not even reached 60% since 1997.
2011 Census, old boundaries, ranks UK
I shall reproduce these for information as some are not available yet for 2021 or for the new seat, unless bjornhattan can find / especially create them!
Age 65+ 17.7% 258/650
In bad health 8.2% 5/650
Very good health 39.7% 646/650
Owner-occupied 63.8% 410/650
Private rented 11.8% 471 /650
Social rented 22.6% 154/650
White 98.7% 28/650
Black 0.1% 641/650
Asian 0.6% 603/650
Born in England 96.5% 3/650
Managerial & professional 19.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 38.2%
(Routine 19.6% 6/650)
Long term sick or disabled 9.4% 14/650
Employed in electricity, gas etc supply 3.1% 3/650
Degree level 15.3% 625/650
No qualifications 33.5% 30/650
Students 6.5% 373/650
2021 Census, new boundaries, ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 20.3% 232/575
Owner occupied 59.8% 403/575
Private rented 17.2% 325/575 high proportional increase
Social rented 23.0% 88/575
White 98.1% 8/575
Black 0.2% 556/575
Asian 0.9% 543.575
Managerial & professional 21.6% 538/575
Routine & Semi-routine 31.6% 45/575
Degree level 21.2% 558/575
No qualifications 26.2% 30/575
Students 5.4% 314/575
General Election 2019: Easington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Grahame Morris 15,723 45.5 -18.2
Conservative Clare Ambrosino 9,142 26.4 +3.7
Brexit Party Julie Maughan 6,744 19.5 New
Liberal Democrats Dominic Haney 1,526 4.4 +3.1
North East Susan McDonnell 1,448 4.2 -2.4
Lab Majority 6,581 19.0 -21.9
2019 electorate 61,182
Turnout 34,583 56.5 -1.9
Labour hold
Swings
10.95 Lab to C
18.85 Lab to Brexit
Boundary Changes
The new Easington seat will consist of
100% of Easington
12.7% of Sedgefield
0.7% of City of Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_190_Easington_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 18634 | 46.8% |
| Con | 10782 | 27.1% |
| Brexit | 7230 | 18.1% |
| LD | 1650 | 4.1% |
| Green | 104 | 0.3% |
| Oth | 1448 | 3.6% |
| Majority | 7852 | 19.7% |