Post by Robert Waller on Aug 10, 2023 19:47:17 GMT
Reversing the situation back in 1997 when north east Wales was actually given an extra seat, the forthcoming boundary changes see a drastic reduction in the number of Welsh Westminster constituencies from 40 to 32, due to the heavy over-representation from which it has benefited for many decades. (The Senedd is going in the opposite direction, likely to expand from 60 to 96). Therefore the electorate of the existing seat of Delyn has to be expanded, and what is proposed is in part a reversal of what happened in 1997, with the return of the Prestatyn area from Vale of Clwyd, plus further south the transfer of Ruthin and two rural wards, Llanfair Dyffryn Clwyd and Llanarmon-yn-Ial from Clwyd West. In the revised proposals of October 2022 and the final report of June 2023 it was also recommended that Flint and Bagillt should be transferred to Alyn & Deeside, and that the seat should be greatly extended physically even further south across the Clwydian range of hills to include Llangollen from the abolished Clwyd South. The seat would now be substantially different from Delyn and a new name was proposed, Clwyd East.
It is estimated that the changes would have produced a notably larger notional Conservative majority in Clwyd East than Delyn if these new boundaries had applied in December 2019, perhaps of over 5,000 compared with the actual 865. This is because Flint is certainly one of the stronger areas of Delyn for Labour, whereas they did not even contest Ruthin or Llangollen in the Denbighshire elections in May 2022, and though they took five of the eight council seats in Prestatyn, none was by a large majority. Overall the demographics indicate that Clwyd East will have a much older age profile than Delyn (due to both the seaside and rural additions), have even more owner occupiers and fewer social renters, and a lower proportion in routine and semi-routine occupations.
Clwyd East is a rather strange name for the new constituency, as the county of Clwyd has not existed since 1996 - and even when it did these new boundaries would not have covered the eastern part of that county, much of which is in Alyn & Deeside. The new seat is in fact a long north-south strip pretty much in the centre of the defunct Clwyd stretching from Prestatyn through Mold in the centre to Llangollen at the southern end. Internal communications are not great. Finally, why Clwyd East when the Commission for England decrees that in county seats the compass point should come first, for example east Wiltshire, East Surrey or even Ely and East Cambridgeshire. But not East Clwyd.
Therefore it is a case of one not entirely satisfactory name replacing another. Delyn is not only a relatively obscure name for a constituency, but despite its apparent origin in the Welsh language it is an artificial one too. It was coined as recently as 1974, by combining the area’s two principal rivers, the Dee and the Alyn, when a name was sought for one of the new local government districts within the historic county of Flintshire and the new Clwyd. In fact an earlier suggestion was Alyn-Dee. It is true that Y Delyn is also Welsh for ‘the harp’, and that instrument appears in the borough’s coat of arms – but that is an ex post facto rationalization. Its neighbouring seat to the south-east is called Alyn & Deeside, so it could be argued that actually both constituencies in effect have the same etymology, which cannot be fully distinctive and therefore cannot be fully satisfactory. At least ‘Delyn’ has the virtue of being short.
The constituency takes in the very north-eastern tip of Wales, including the downstream part of the Dee estuary and rounding the Point of Ayr to take in part of the northern Irish Sea coast. On its creation in 1983, Delyn included sections of both the always Tory West Flintshire (retained even in 1966) and solidly Labour East Flintshire (held in 1959, say). It was felt that it was going to be very much a marginal seat. Originally the West Flintshire section was larger, and the Conservative Keith Raffan won Delyn in 1983 and 1987; but on his retirement in 1992 Labour’s David Hanson seized it by just over 2,000 votes, and he retained it by more or less comfortable margins seven more times up to and including 2017. Hanson’s majority varied from 12,693 in 1997 to 2,272 in 2010. Then in 2019 he became one of the longest serving Labour MPs to be defeated, as the Conservative Rob Roberts overtook him by just 865 votes – behind Dennis Skinner (1970), only Richard Burden (Birmingham Northfield) of those defeated by a Tory matched his longevity, though there were two others of the 1992 intake who were no longer standing for their party of origin (Mike Gapes and Roger Godsiff).
It is easy to see why the seat was regarded as finely balanced at first. Labour did best in Flint, which is an industrial centre and even boasts some tower blocks, and in the working-class town of Holywell. Mold, which was the administrative and cultural headquarters of the county of Clwyd and now plays the same role for the restored authority of Flintshire, is more mixed politically. In 2019, though, Delyn was one of no fewer than five Labour losses, out of six defences, in North Wales. It is true that round 54% of voters within this constituency had opted for ‘Leave’ in the 2016 referendum, and the Brexit party took nearly 2,000 votes and just saved their deposit in the subsequent general election heavily influenced by the delay to ‘Brexit’. But its views on Europe were not far different from the Welsh average and actually less strongly Leave than the neighbouring constituencies of Alyn and Deeside and Vale of Clwyd, yet the Labour share fell more in Delyn, so the defeat cannot be put down to the European issue alone, unless the Liberal Democrat share, which more than doubled here, actually reflects a protest against Labour’s havering by ‘Remainers'.
Labour do appear to have already recovered their lead within Delyn, at least. In the Senedd election of 2021, on identical boundaries to the current Westminster seat, Hannah Blythyn retained the seat with a majority of 3,711 or 14.1%, on a 47% turnout. The new boundaries of Clwyd East do not help, but all is far from lost for Labour. In the most recent elections for Flintshire council, in May 2022, although there is a very strong Independent representation, Labour actually returned more councillors than in Alyn and Deeside, where they held the parliamentary seat in December 2019. In Holywell they won West and Central, though the latter by only one vote, and only lost in East (to an Independent). In the county town Mold, Labour polled 72% in East ward, and took all the other three (South, West and Broncoed) narrowly with 40-45% shares. They also won Leeswood and Brynford and Halkin.
Labour need to regain this seat, however named, if they are to have any chance of returning to government at the next general election, whatever effect the boundary changes have. On the evidence of the May 2022 elections within even the proposed boundaries they look to have a good chance of doing so. The sitting Conservative MP is currently suspended from the whip, which may also have an effect. Devotees of the classic BBC Radio 4 series A History of the World in 100 Objects, by the former British Museum director Neil MacGregor, may remember one from this constituency – a cape made from the finest and thinnest of gold, probably for a young prince, over 3,500 years ago and found in 1833 in a burial mound in the Clwydian hills near Mold. One could say this fragile object is Old Gold from Mold. The question for Labour as we approach a quarter of the way into the 21st century CE may be framed as – is there electoral gold in ‘them thar hills’?
2021 Census
Age 65+ 25.6% 68/575
Owner occupied 73.0% 98/575
Private rented 14.9% 443/575
Social rented 12.1% 424/575
White 97.8% 19/575
Black 0.2% 566/575
Asian 0.9% 534/575
Managerial & professional 33.2% 272/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.6% 255/575
Degree level 32.8% 267/575
No qualifications 17.2% 319/575
Students 5.2% 351/575
General Election 2019: Delyn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Rob Roberts 16,756 43.7 +2.6
Labour David Hanson 15,891 41.4 ―10.8
Liberal Democrats Andrew Parkhurst 2,346 6.1 +3.5
Brexit Party Nigel Williams 1,971 5.1 N/A
Plaid Cymru Paul Rowlinson 1,406 3.7 ―0.1
C Majority 865 2.3
Turnout 38,370 70.3 ―2.5
2019 Registered electors 54,552
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 6.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Clwyd East seat will consist of
76.9% of Delyn
35.9% of Vale of Clwyd
16.1% of Clwyd West
9.1% of Clwyd South
Map
P131 here
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/sites/bcomm/files/review/E02859434_Boundary%20Commission%20Wales%202023_English_Web%20Accessible_V03.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
It is estimated that the changes would have produced a notably larger notional Conservative majority in Clwyd East than Delyn if these new boundaries had applied in December 2019, perhaps of over 5,000 compared with the actual 865. This is because Flint is certainly one of the stronger areas of Delyn for Labour, whereas they did not even contest Ruthin or Llangollen in the Denbighshire elections in May 2022, and though they took five of the eight council seats in Prestatyn, none was by a large majority. Overall the demographics indicate that Clwyd East will have a much older age profile than Delyn (due to both the seaside and rural additions), have even more owner occupiers and fewer social renters, and a lower proportion in routine and semi-routine occupations.
Clwyd East is a rather strange name for the new constituency, as the county of Clwyd has not existed since 1996 - and even when it did these new boundaries would not have covered the eastern part of that county, much of which is in Alyn & Deeside. The new seat is in fact a long north-south strip pretty much in the centre of the defunct Clwyd stretching from Prestatyn through Mold in the centre to Llangollen at the southern end. Internal communications are not great. Finally, why Clwyd East when the Commission for England decrees that in county seats the compass point should come first, for example east Wiltshire, East Surrey or even Ely and East Cambridgeshire. But not East Clwyd.
Therefore it is a case of one not entirely satisfactory name replacing another. Delyn is not only a relatively obscure name for a constituency, but despite its apparent origin in the Welsh language it is an artificial one too. It was coined as recently as 1974, by combining the area’s two principal rivers, the Dee and the Alyn, when a name was sought for one of the new local government districts within the historic county of Flintshire and the new Clwyd. In fact an earlier suggestion was Alyn-Dee. It is true that Y Delyn is also Welsh for ‘the harp’, and that instrument appears in the borough’s coat of arms – but that is an ex post facto rationalization. Its neighbouring seat to the south-east is called Alyn & Deeside, so it could be argued that actually both constituencies in effect have the same etymology, which cannot be fully distinctive and therefore cannot be fully satisfactory. At least ‘Delyn’ has the virtue of being short.
The constituency takes in the very north-eastern tip of Wales, including the downstream part of the Dee estuary and rounding the Point of Ayr to take in part of the northern Irish Sea coast. On its creation in 1983, Delyn included sections of both the always Tory West Flintshire (retained even in 1966) and solidly Labour East Flintshire (held in 1959, say). It was felt that it was going to be very much a marginal seat. Originally the West Flintshire section was larger, and the Conservative Keith Raffan won Delyn in 1983 and 1987; but on his retirement in 1992 Labour’s David Hanson seized it by just over 2,000 votes, and he retained it by more or less comfortable margins seven more times up to and including 2017. Hanson’s majority varied from 12,693 in 1997 to 2,272 in 2010. Then in 2019 he became one of the longest serving Labour MPs to be defeated, as the Conservative Rob Roberts overtook him by just 865 votes – behind Dennis Skinner (1970), only Richard Burden (Birmingham Northfield) of those defeated by a Tory matched his longevity, though there were two others of the 1992 intake who were no longer standing for their party of origin (Mike Gapes and Roger Godsiff).
It is easy to see why the seat was regarded as finely balanced at first. Labour did best in Flint, which is an industrial centre and even boasts some tower blocks, and in the working-class town of Holywell. Mold, which was the administrative and cultural headquarters of the county of Clwyd and now plays the same role for the restored authority of Flintshire, is more mixed politically. In 2019, though, Delyn was one of no fewer than five Labour losses, out of six defences, in North Wales. It is true that round 54% of voters within this constituency had opted for ‘Leave’ in the 2016 referendum, and the Brexit party took nearly 2,000 votes and just saved their deposit in the subsequent general election heavily influenced by the delay to ‘Brexit’. But its views on Europe were not far different from the Welsh average and actually less strongly Leave than the neighbouring constituencies of Alyn and Deeside and Vale of Clwyd, yet the Labour share fell more in Delyn, so the defeat cannot be put down to the European issue alone, unless the Liberal Democrat share, which more than doubled here, actually reflects a protest against Labour’s havering by ‘Remainers'.
Labour do appear to have already recovered their lead within Delyn, at least. In the Senedd election of 2021, on identical boundaries to the current Westminster seat, Hannah Blythyn retained the seat with a majority of 3,711 or 14.1%, on a 47% turnout. The new boundaries of Clwyd East do not help, but all is far from lost for Labour. In the most recent elections for Flintshire council, in May 2022, although there is a very strong Independent representation, Labour actually returned more councillors than in Alyn and Deeside, where they held the parliamentary seat in December 2019. In Holywell they won West and Central, though the latter by only one vote, and only lost in East (to an Independent). In the county town Mold, Labour polled 72% in East ward, and took all the other three (South, West and Broncoed) narrowly with 40-45% shares. They also won Leeswood and Brynford and Halkin.
Labour need to regain this seat, however named, if they are to have any chance of returning to government at the next general election, whatever effect the boundary changes have. On the evidence of the May 2022 elections within even the proposed boundaries they look to have a good chance of doing so. The sitting Conservative MP is currently suspended from the whip, which may also have an effect. Devotees of the classic BBC Radio 4 series A History of the World in 100 Objects, by the former British Museum director Neil MacGregor, may remember one from this constituency – a cape made from the finest and thinnest of gold, probably for a young prince, over 3,500 years ago and found in 1833 in a burial mound in the Clwydian hills near Mold. One could say this fragile object is Old Gold from Mold. The question for Labour as we approach a quarter of the way into the 21st century CE may be framed as – is there electoral gold in ‘them thar hills’?
2021 Census
Age 65+ 25.6% 68/575
Owner occupied 73.0% 98/575
Private rented 14.9% 443/575
Social rented 12.1% 424/575
White 97.8% 19/575
Black 0.2% 566/575
Asian 0.9% 534/575
Managerial & professional 33.2% 272/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.6% 255/575
Degree level 32.8% 267/575
No qualifications 17.2% 319/575
Students 5.2% 351/575
General Election 2019: Delyn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Rob Roberts 16,756 43.7 +2.6
Labour David Hanson 15,891 41.4 ―10.8
Liberal Democrats Andrew Parkhurst 2,346 6.1 +3.5
Brexit Party Nigel Williams 1,971 5.1 N/A
Plaid Cymru Paul Rowlinson 1,406 3.7 ―0.1
C Majority 865 2.3
Turnout 38,370 70.3 ―2.5
2019 Registered electors 54,552
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 6.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Clwyd East seat will consist of
76.9% of Delyn
35.9% of Vale of Clwyd
16.1% of Clwyd West
9.1% of Clwyd South
Map
P131 here
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/sites/bcomm/files/review/E02859434_Boundary%20Commission%20Wales%202023_English_Web%20Accessible_V03.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 25324 | 47.9% |
| Lab | 20040 | 37.9% |
| LD | 2823 | 5.3% |
| Plaid Cymru | 2460 | 4.7% |
| Brexit | 2173 | 4.1% |
| | ||
| Majority | 5284 | 10.0% |
