Post by Robert Waller on Aug 10, 2023 9:31:00 GMT
Surely one of the most striking deviations of any result in the 2019 general election from long term electoral history came in Bishop Auckland. This was a seat which had been safely won by Labour in every national contest since 1935. Indeed, even in 1931, when Labour only held a rump of 52 constituencies in the greatest ever landslide, when the coalition formed by the sitting Prime Minister won an overall majority of no less than 493 seats, they only lost Bishop Auckland to the ‘National’ (coalition) Liberal by the narrow margin of 955 votes – in fact, Bishop Auckland had been won by Labour even in a previous Coalition landslide, in the Lloyd George ‘coupon’ election of 1918. Their candidate in 1931 was Hugh Dalton. This turned out to be a four year hiatus in his career as MP for the seat from 1929 to 1959, including a high profile stint as Chancellor of the Exchequer in Attlee’s government. The Labour majority never again dropped below 4,306 (in Thatcher’s best year of 1983) until the Conservatives benefited from a series of swings from Labour in 2015 (2%), 2017 (4%) and finally 9.5% in 2019, so that Dehenna Davison ousted Helen Goodman with a majority of fully 7,962. It now looks as if Bishop Auckland may be one of the hardest of the ‘Red Wall’ 2019 losses for Labour to recover.
The Bishop Auckland constituency in essence covers the south-western quadrant of the county of Durham. Like North West Durham, it is physically extensive, incorporating much of the upland part of the county, with the farmland of the Tees and Wear valleys, which cut through the high moors of the northern Pennines. There has always been a Conservative vote here, in the villages and small towns, now placed in the wards of Barnard Castle West, Barnard Castle East and Evenwood. All three, for example, were won by the Conservative candidates in the most recent Durham county council elections of May 2021, with the Tories holding those named after Barnard Castle by a margin of over two to one and the latter being a gain from Labour. However the geographical dominance of this western section has, in the past, been very deceptive; indeed when a somewhat similar constituency was actually named Barnard Castle it was actually won by Labour as early in their history as a byelection in July 1903, when Arthur Henderson’s victory brought the numbers in the Commons up to a mere 5 (they had won two in the 1900 general election, who had subsequently been joined by David Shackleton in the Clitheroe byelection of August 1902 and Will Crooks (Woolwich, March 1903). Barnard Castle is indeed a very pleasant little town in the valley of the upper Tees, with its eponymous 12th century ruin as well as the opticians visited by Dominic Cummings in March 2020, but it has a population of less than 6,000.
The electorate in the Bishop Auckland seat is in fact currently concentrated in its north eastern corner (logical enough, as that takes it towards the geographical centre of County Durham), around the towns of Spennymoor (with Tudhoe), Shildon and Bishop Auckland itself, along with its neighbour West Auckland. This is very much part of the former Durham coalfield, though West Auckland’s drift mine closed in 1967, Tudhoe’s pit in 1969 and Whitworth Park at Spennymoor in 1974. Shildon’s drift was the longest to last, till 1985, and the town is even better known in railway history, although this is only a source of employment now at the Locomotion museum, the railways manufacturing works having also closed in the mid 1980s. Bishop Auckland itself is the largest town in the seat, with a population of over 24,000. It does have a historic centre, including Auckland Castle, the palace of the Bishops of Durham, but the town is also mainly a product of the Industrial Revolution, featuring mines, ironworks and railways. Nevertheless, Bishop Auckland Town was known for its variety of representation including Liberals and Independents way back in the time of the Wear Valley district council, which existed between 1973 and 2007, and in the 2021 Durham elections it was no great surprise that Town joined the western wards in placing a Conservative at the top of the poll.
More surprising, and alarming for Labour, was that the Conservatives also finished top in Woodhouse Close and gained a seat in West Auckland, both contiguous with Bishop Auckland but lacking its ecclesiastical patina. Moreover Labour struggled elsewhere in the constituency in 2021. In the other large population centre, Spennymoor–Tudhoe, two Tories and three Independents were returned, and no Labour. In fact, the only wards Labour did win were Coundon in the heart of the old coalfield, and Shildon / Dene Valley.
In these circumstances it is hardly reassuring news for Labour that in heavily revised proposals published after the inquiry process by the Commission in November 2022, which have now been confirmed as the final recommendations too, the rural western hill section of the seat is substantially reinforced by the transfer of the three wards of Crook, Tow Law, and the broad acres of Weardale, all from the North West Durham constituency. In exchange, Spennymoor and its Tudhoe suburb are moved into the former Sedgefield, with that name disappearing in favour of Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor. While it is true that all these wards have shown little loyalty to Labour in very recent years, with strong flirtations with the far right, pro-Brexit groups, localists and even the Liberal Democrats in recent decades, the longer term tradition in the Spennymoor section is much more favourable to that party than in rural Weardale, for example, and one feels that the boundary changes make the Conservative position look decidedly safer, despite Dehenna Davison's announcement in November 2022, at the age of just 29, that she intends to stand down after just one term in the Commons.
This is a massive contrast with its political traditions stretching back to the end of the First World War, and, if we count Barnard Castle, well before the beginning of that war. It cannot be explained by social change. Despite the relative affluence and more rural nature of the western rural sections, overall in the most recent census Bishop Auckland even on the new boundaries still displays the indicators of a working class seat. It was in the 100 highest for the proportion in routine and semi-routine occupations, with significantly more of these than in the professional and managerial categories, which is now not the norm in Britain. The figures also give some clues as to the reasons for the recent transformation in the favour of the Conservative party. Only 25% reported education to degree level, but 22.6% with no advanced qualifications, in the national top 100It was the 55th ‘whitest’ seat in the England and Wales, in the top decile.
These characteristics are linked to the 61% vote for Brexit in the 2016 referendum and UKIP’s strong third place in the 2015 general election. This constituency had by far the most convincing margin of the four Conservative gains in County Durham in 2019, and one feels that even if the others (Darlington and Newton Aycliffe/Spennymoor, and NW Durham as part of Blaydon & Consett) return to Labour next time, Bishop Auckland may well not.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.9% 108/575
Owner occupied 63.6% 343/575
Private rented 18.7% 261/575
Social rented 17.8% 204/575
White 98.0% 55/575
Black 0.3% 522/575
Asian 0.7% 515/575
Managerial & professional 25.8% 476/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.6% 91/575
Degree level 25.7% 474/575
No qualifications 22.6% 94/575
Students 4.6% 475/575
General election 2019: Bishop Auckland
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Dehenna Davison 24,067 53.7 +6.8
Labour Helen Goodman 16,105 35.9 –12.2
Brexit Party Nicholas Brown 2,500 5.6 New
Liberal Democrats Ray Georgeson 2,133 4.8 +2.1
C Majority 7,962 17.8
2019 electorate 68,170
Turnout 44,805 65.7 +1.7
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 9.5 Lab to C
Boundary changes
The new Bishop Auckland seat will consist of
75.3% of Bishop Auckland
26.7% of NW Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_184_Bishop%20Auckland_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
The Bishop Auckland constituency in essence covers the south-western quadrant of the county of Durham. Like North West Durham, it is physically extensive, incorporating much of the upland part of the county, with the farmland of the Tees and Wear valleys, which cut through the high moors of the northern Pennines. There has always been a Conservative vote here, in the villages and small towns, now placed in the wards of Barnard Castle West, Barnard Castle East and Evenwood. All three, for example, were won by the Conservative candidates in the most recent Durham county council elections of May 2021, with the Tories holding those named after Barnard Castle by a margin of over two to one and the latter being a gain from Labour. However the geographical dominance of this western section has, in the past, been very deceptive; indeed when a somewhat similar constituency was actually named Barnard Castle it was actually won by Labour as early in their history as a byelection in July 1903, when Arthur Henderson’s victory brought the numbers in the Commons up to a mere 5 (they had won two in the 1900 general election, who had subsequently been joined by David Shackleton in the Clitheroe byelection of August 1902 and Will Crooks (Woolwich, March 1903). Barnard Castle is indeed a very pleasant little town in the valley of the upper Tees, with its eponymous 12th century ruin as well as the opticians visited by Dominic Cummings in March 2020, but it has a population of less than 6,000.
The electorate in the Bishop Auckland seat is in fact currently concentrated in its north eastern corner (logical enough, as that takes it towards the geographical centre of County Durham), around the towns of Spennymoor (with Tudhoe), Shildon and Bishop Auckland itself, along with its neighbour West Auckland. This is very much part of the former Durham coalfield, though West Auckland’s drift mine closed in 1967, Tudhoe’s pit in 1969 and Whitworth Park at Spennymoor in 1974. Shildon’s drift was the longest to last, till 1985, and the town is even better known in railway history, although this is only a source of employment now at the Locomotion museum, the railways manufacturing works having also closed in the mid 1980s. Bishop Auckland itself is the largest town in the seat, with a population of over 24,000. It does have a historic centre, including Auckland Castle, the palace of the Bishops of Durham, but the town is also mainly a product of the Industrial Revolution, featuring mines, ironworks and railways. Nevertheless, Bishop Auckland Town was known for its variety of representation including Liberals and Independents way back in the time of the Wear Valley district council, which existed between 1973 and 2007, and in the 2021 Durham elections it was no great surprise that Town joined the western wards in placing a Conservative at the top of the poll.
More surprising, and alarming for Labour, was that the Conservatives also finished top in Woodhouse Close and gained a seat in West Auckland, both contiguous with Bishop Auckland but lacking its ecclesiastical patina. Moreover Labour struggled elsewhere in the constituency in 2021. In the other large population centre, Spennymoor–Tudhoe, two Tories and three Independents were returned, and no Labour. In fact, the only wards Labour did win were Coundon in the heart of the old coalfield, and Shildon / Dene Valley.
In these circumstances it is hardly reassuring news for Labour that in heavily revised proposals published after the inquiry process by the Commission in November 2022, which have now been confirmed as the final recommendations too, the rural western hill section of the seat is substantially reinforced by the transfer of the three wards of Crook, Tow Law, and the broad acres of Weardale, all from the North West Durham constituency. In exchange, Spennymoor and its Tudhoe suburb are moved into the former Sedgefield, with that name disappearing in favour of Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor. While it is true that all these wards have shown little loyalty to Labour in very recent years, with strong flirtations with the far right, pro-Brexit groups, localists and even the Liberal Democrats in recent decades, the longer term tradition in the Spennymoor section is much more favourable to that party than in rural Weardale, for example, and one feels that the boundary changes make the Conservative position look decidedly safer, despite Dehenna Davison's announcement in November 2022, at the age of just 29, that she intends to stand down after just one term in the Commons.
This is a massive contrast with its political traditions stretching back to the end of the First World War, and, if we count Barnard Castle, well before the beginning of that war. It cannot be explained by social change. Despite the relative affluence and more rural nature of the western rural sections, overall in the most recent census Bishop Auckland even on the new boundaries still displays the indicators of a working class seat. It was in the 100 highest for the proportion in routine and semi-routine occupations, with significantly more of these than in the professional and managerial categories, which is now not the norm in Britain. The figures also give some clues as to the reasons for the recent transformation in the favour of the Conservative party. Only 25% reported education to degree level, but 22.6% with no advanced qualifications, in the national top 100It was the 55th ‘whitest’ seat in the England and Wales, in the top decile.
These characteristics are linked to the 61% vote for Brexit in the 2016 referendum and UKIP’s strong third place in the 2015 general election. This constituency had by far the most convincing margin of the four Conservative gains in County Durham in 2019, and one feels that even if the others (Darlington and Newton Aycliffe/Spennymoor, and NW Durham as part of Blaydon & Consett) return to Labour next time, Bishop Auckland may well not.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.9% 108/575
Owner occupied 63.6% 343/575
Private rented 18.7% 261/575
Social rented 17.8% 204/575
White 98.0% 55/575
Black 0.3% 522/575
Asian 0.7% 515/575
Managerial & professional 25.8% 476/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.6% 91/575
Degree level 25.7% 474/575
No qualifications 22.6% 94/575
Students 4.6% 475/575
General election 2019: Bishop Auckland
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Dehenna Davison 24,067 53.7 +6.8
Labour Helen Goodman 16,105 35.9 –12.2
Brexit Party Nicholas Brown 2,500 5.6 New
Liberal Democrats Ray Georgeson 2,133 4.8 +2.1
C Majority 7,962 17.8
2019 electorate 68,170
Turnout 44,805 65.7 +1.7
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 9.5 Lab to C
Boundary changes
The new Bishop Auckland seat will consist of
75.3% of Bishop Auckland
26.7% of NW Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_184_Bishop%20Auckland_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 26239 | 53.0% |
| Lab | 18126 | 36.6% |
| Brexit | 2739 | 5.5% |
| LD | 1782 | 3.6% |
| Green | 300 | 0.6% |
| Oth | 325 | 0.7% |
| Majority | 8113 | 16.4% |
