|
Post by carolus on Apr 8, 2024 10:23:05 GMT
LD are missing five, which look like they may be strategic. 1/2 in Dorchester West is presumably an agreement with the Independent since our candidate and the Ind are the incumbents. No candidate in Melcombe Regis which is Green held, and 0/3 in Rodwell & Wyke (currently two Green, 1 Lab).
|
|
|
Post by nw12398 on Apr 8, 2024 16:05:57 GMT
On Weymouth TC (select wards where SOPN is interesting/unexpected):
Littlemoor (2): Labour won both seats in 2019 but only have one candidate this time. One of their councillors defected to the Lib Dems, who is standing with another Lib Dem in this TC ward and the Littlemoor and Preston Unitary ward. Melcombe Regis (2): Currently Green, Lab and Independent as the current ward is slightly bigger with 3 councillors; all only have one candidate again this time. Seems foolish for the Greens since they would probably win both. Two Conservative candidates. Radipole and Southill (2): 2 Lib Dem candidates with only 1 Labour candidate as opposition, meaning one Lib Dem is guaranteed. Rodwell (2): Two Conservative candidates face one Labour candidate, meaning one Conservative is guaranteed. Frustrating as I imagine the Conservatives would be third if Lab, Greens and Cons all had full slates. Westham East (2): Last time, 1 LD 1 Lab, with the Lab councillor later defecting to LD. Two LDs and two Conservatives but only one Labour; it should easily be a LD win but no Lab full slate in this ward is rather surprising. Westham West (3): 3 LDs face one Lab and 1 "Independent for Dorset"- a long time LD councillor who became independent a little while after the last election. To be diplomatic, I'm not the greatest fan of that candidate. 1 LD is guaranteed election. Wyke North (2): 2 Conservatives, 1 Labour. Similar story to Rodwell although the Greens would be less relevant here. Wyke South (2): 2 Conservatives, 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 No Description.
Overall a lot of surprising omissions, hinting at a lack of great interest, which differs from 2019 where it was somewhat seen as a partial continuation of the old Borough council. Very few Green candidates in particular when they have a high chance in wards where they're undernominated or missing entirely; however the Greens had very few candidates in 2019 too.
|
|
|
Post by nw12398 on Apr 8, 2024 16:27:48 GMT
Interesting (to me) points r.e. the Dorset Council SOPN:
Chickerell (2): Judging by the Lib Dem candidates, they may be seriously contesting this one. Marshwood Vale (1): The Green candidate was a fairly close second as an independent last time. Before that, she was a Conservative West Dorset District councillor for at least 12 years. Portland (3): The two incumbent independents have joined with a third under the "Independents for Dorset" banner. Incumbent Labour councillor is standing with two running mates - a married couple who have both been parliamentary candidates for South Dorset: one for Labour in 2019 and the other for Respect in 2005(...). A full Lib Dem slate, which is the first appearance for the party here in a long time - however all Kimberlins which really matters here. Sturminster Newton (1): Lib Dem candidate stood as an independent in a different ward in 2019. Westham (2): Former Lib Dem councillor (on other tier councils) standing under "Independents for Dorset" label (see Westham West above).
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Post by peterl on Apr 8, 2024 16:33:11 GMT
Bridport Town Council
Contested in all five wards. As noted previously, the existing town council is being expanded to take in several neighbouring parishes and as a result there are extensive changes to the ward pattern.
Bothenhampton and Walditch Ward (3 seats) 3 Lib Dems (including Bridget Bolwell who is standing for Dorset Council), 1 Lab, 1 Green (LD guaranteed 1) Bradpole (5 seats) 3 Lib Dems (including Paddy Mooney from Bradpole Parish Council), 1 Green, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (Neil Chilcott, who was Vice Chairman of Bradpole Parish Council) (LD guaranteed 2) Bridport Central (5 seats) 4 Lib Dems (including Sarah Williams sitting Dorset Councillor who is standing again), 2 Lab, 1 Green (Kelvin Clayton sitting Dorset Councillor who is standing again), 1 “Independent Young Person”, 1 “Independent United Diversity Bridport” Bridport West and Allington (5 seats) 4 Lib Dem, 2 Lab, 1 Green, 1 Ind (LD guaranteed 1) West Bay (2 seats) 2 Lib Dem (including Dave Boswell sitting Dorset Councillor who is standing again), 1 Green (LD guaranteed 1)
Overall Lib Dems guaranteed 5 seats.
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Post by peterl on Apr 8, 2024 17:46:51 GMT
Ferndown Town Council
Ameysford (3 seats) Unopposed: Cathy Lugg* (Con), Maureen Potiphar (IFPA), Lawrence Wilson* (IFPA) Ferndown Central North (2 seats): Jason Coppard (IFPA), Philip Leach* (IFPA), George Phillips* (Con) Ferndown Central (3 seats): Simon Cable (IFPA), Stuart Fleetham* (Con), Gary Francis (IFPA), Malcolm Hobbs (IFPA), Mike Parkes* (Con) Hampreston and Longham (3 seats): Paul Hanson Graham* (IVFR), Samantha Heath (Ind), Hannah Hobbs-Chell (IFPA), Stephen Selby* (IVFR), Matthew Stickley* (Ind) Links South (2 seats) Unopposed: Terry Cordery* (IFPA), Matthew White* (IFPA) Links (3 seats): Katrina King (IFPA), Sarah Matthews (IFPA), Ann Miller* (IFPA), Julie Robinson* (Con), Krissy Stamp* (Con) Stapehill (1 seat) Unopposed: Nicholas Wellstead* (IFPA)
*. Sitting councillor IFPA = Independent Ferndown People’s Alliance IVFR = Independent Voice for Ferndown Residents
IFPA win 5 seats unopposed and are guaranteed another 3 meaning they need to win only 1 additional seat beyond what they are guaranteed to obtain a majority. Con wins 1 unopposed.
Cathy Lugg and Mike Parkes are sitting Dorset councillors for Ferndown South. Paul Hanson Graham, Lawrence Wilson and Hannah Hobbs-Chell (who was briefly a councillor about 10 years ago) are all standing for Dorset Council in Ferndown South.
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Post by peterl on Apr 8, 2024 17:56:11 GMT
Dorchester Town Council
East (5 seats): 5 Lib Dem, 1 Lab, 1 Green, 1 Ind for Dorset (LD guaranteed 2) North (4 seats) Unopposed: 4 Lib Dem Poundbury (4 seats): 3 Lib Dem, 2 Con, 1 Ind (LD guaranteed 1) South (3 seats) Unopposed: 3 Lib Dem West (4 seats): 3 Lib Dem, 2 Lab, 1 Ind for Dorset (LD guaranteed 1)
Overall Lib Dems guaranteed 11 seats.
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Post by peterl on Apr 8, 2024 18:03:01 GMT
Swanage Town Council
North (6 seats): 6 Con, 3 Ind, 2 Lab, 1 Lib Dem South (6 seats): 6 Con, 4 Lab, 3 Ind
Wareham Town Council (16 seats): 8 Lib Dem, 7 Ind, 2 Independent for the Good of Wareham
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Post by peterl on Apr 8, 2024 18:12:08 GMT
Weymouth Town Council
Littlemoor (2 seats); 2 Con, 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab, 1 Ind Lodmoor (2 seats): 2 Con, 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab Melcombe Regis (2 seats): 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 Green, 1 Ind Preston (3 seats): 3 Con, 3 Lib Dem, 1 Lab Radipole and Southill (2 seats): 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab (LD guaranteed 1) Rodwell (2 seats): 2 Con, 1 Lab (Con guaranteed 1) Upwey and Broadwey (3 seats): 3 Con, 3 Lib Dem, 1 Lab Westham East (2 seats): 2 Con, 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab Westham West 3 seats) 3 Lib Dem, 1 Lab, 1 Ind for Dorset (LD guaranteed 1) Wyke North (2 Seats): 2 Con, 1 Lab (Con guaranteed 1) Wyke South (2 seats): 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 Green, 1 Ind
Overall, Lib Dems and Conservatives guaranteed 2 seats each.
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Post by peterl on Apr 8, 2024 18:19:12 GMT
Portland Town Council
Tophill East (4 seats): 3 Lab, 3 Ind for Dorset (each guaranteed 1) Tophill West (6 seats): 4 Lab, 3 Ind for Dorset, 1 Ind, Ind for Portland (Lab guaranteed 1) Underhill (4 seats): 3 Ind for Dorset, 2 Lab, 1 Green, 1 Ind
Overall Labour guaranteed 2, Ind for Dorset guaranteed 1
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Dorset
Apr 8, 2024 18:52:02 GMT
Post by peterl on Apr 8, 2024 18:52:02 GMT
Chickerell Town Council Chickerell Village (7 seats) Unopposed: 4 Ind 1 Lab
Stinsford (7 seats) Unopposed: 6 Ind, 1 Women’s Equality
Symondsbury (7 seats) Unopposed: 6 Ind, 1 Green
Lyme Regis (14 seats) Unopposed: 9 Ind, 2 Green, 1 Local Resident for Over 40 years, 1 Lyme Area Energy Champion
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,955
Member is Online
|
Dorset
Apr 8, 2024 18:55:51 GMT
Post by andrewp on Apr 8, 2024 18:55:51 GMT
Weymouth Town CouncilLittlemoor (2 seats); 2 Con, 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab, 1 Ind Lodmoor (2 seats): 2 Con, 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab Melcombe Regis (2 seats): 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 Green, 1 Ind Preston (3 seats): 3 Con, 3 Lib Dem, 1 Lab Radipole and Southill (2 seats): 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab (LD guaranteed 1) Rodwell (2 seats): 2 Con, 1 Lab (Con guaranteed 1) Upwey and Broadwey (3 seats): 3 Con, 3 Lib Dem, 1 Lab Westham East (2 seats): 2 Con, 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab Westham West 3 seats) 3 Lib Dem, 1 Lab, 1 Ind for Dorset (LD guaranteed 1) Wyke North (2 Seats): 2 Con, 1 Lab (Con guaranteed 1) Wyke South (2 seats): 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 Green, 1 Ind Overall, Lib Dems and Conservatives guaranteed 2 seats each. That’s a large town council isn’t it? -25- is that one of the largest?
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Post by peterl on Apr 8, 2024 19:33:06 GMT
That’s a large town council isn’t it? -25- is that one of the largest? Yes, although I believe it was 29 so a slight reduction. Weymouth is a pretty large area as town councils go. It's the lion share of what used to have its own borough council after all. I'm working on a few notes on Dorset Council candidates which will probably be up late tonight.
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Post by peterl on Apr 9, 2024 1:14:29 GMT
A few notes on Dorset Council.
West Parley - Ann Miller Independent is a member of Ferndown Town Council where she is standing for re-election. She is a former UKIP member, in common with many independents in the Ferndown/Parley area. Whilst a long shot, she may have a chance if the Tories are having a really bad night.
Ferndown South Independents Paul Hanson Graham and Lawrence Wilson are sitting Ferndown town councillors for Hampreston and Longham. Both are ex-UKIP and were on the nationalistic, socially conservative end of the party. Whilst he did stand unsuccessfully for Dorset Council last time, Graham in particular is well known locally and has some popularity. Independent Hannah Hobbs-Chell briefly served on the town council about 10 years ago and if I remember correctly was training to be a vet at the time. She came across as fairly eco-conscious and was behind a drive for solar panels on council buildings back in the day. She is also standing for the town council again. 3 independents for 2 seats could split the vote, but on a bad night for the Tories this might be a ward to watch. I expect Graham will probably be the best scoring independent here, especially as he seems to have moved into the area from Bournemouth since the last election and he will be the highest on the ballot paper of the three.
Ferndown North One of the few wards with a Reform candidate, and a good choice for them. Whilst Ferndown South might be a deal with Graham and Wilson, I was surprised other wards on the eastern boundary of Dorset such as West Moors and St Leonards and St Ives had no Reform candidate given prior strong UKIP support.
St Leonards and St Ives Its an extreme long shot for them, but the Lib Dems being the only alternative option here to the Tories will be encouraging for them.
West Moors and Three Legged Cross 2 Independents here, of whom Anzinger-Cooper has an address in BCP whilst Hobbs is within Dorset Council which may slightly advantage the later as being more local. I know nothing else about Hobbs. Anzinger-Cooper seems to work for Canotec, a business that has something to do with office automation.
Verwood John Baxter stands again here for UKIP. A resident of Ferndown and outgoing member of Ferndown Town Council, the former Bournemouth hotelier prefers to stand in Verwood in hopes of not being elected. Verwood is less hotly contested this time with no Greens standing.
Swanage Independent Philip Eades is a local pub landlord and plays for the local cricket club. It seems he likes to attend town council meetings to discuss the council’s financial affairs.
West Purbeck and South East Purbeck Surprisingly no independents given that independents were fairly close to winning in both wards last time, the Lib Dems are now the main challengers in these 2 wards.
Littlemoor and Preston Peter Dickenson elected for the Conservatives in January, who it was felt at the time may have been disqualified but who has since taken his seat, is standing again. Independent Alex Bailey is the leader of local campaign group No to the Barge.
Melcombe Regis - No Lib Dem here is good news for sitting Green councillor Jon Orrell.
Westham - Christine Mary James Independents for Dorset seems to be a former Lib Dem member of the old Weymouth and Portland Borough Council and appears to have been involved in something of a scandal in 2010, which I won’t post here but can be found if you search her name and “Weymouth”.
Portland - A full slate for the Independents for Dorset consisting of two sitting independents and one newcomer may have a shot at winning all three seats. Independent for Dorset Susan Cocking is a sitting Dorset Councillor elected as an independent and is also a Portland Town Councillor. According to her declaration of interests is a director of something called the Portland Community Partnership. Rob Hughes Independent for Dorset is also a sitting Dorset Councillor elected as an independent and is listed as a director of Creative Wave Ltd and C-Waves Diving Ltd. Pete Roper Ind for Dorset was Mayor of Portland 2022-23 and has been vocal against the migrant barge.
Chickerell - The lack of either a Green or independent, with sitting independent John Howard Worth standing down, gives the Lib Dems a very good chance here.
Bridport - In fact a full slate of 3 for the Greens contrary to what I said earlier, I imagine the third candidate must have been found fairly late in the day. Kelvin Clayton for the Greens, Dave Bolwell and Sarah Williams for the Lib Dems are the sitting councillors, and I believe Bridget Boswell is wife of Dave Boswell. Green Julian Jones is on Bridport Town Council.
Eggardon - Last I heard Richard Edwards standing for the Greens in this ward was the co-ordinator of the Dorset Greens.
Beaminster - Reform standing one of their three candidates here, an interesting choice as this is not a ward with strong UKIP support in the past. Reform candidate Yvonne Harris runs a local hotel. Already a vulnerable ward for the Tories, Reform standing could well help push Beaminster into the Lib Dem column. Independent Richard Gunning is a member of Beaminster Town Council.
Sherborne West - Independent Taff Martin is ex-Navy, a veteran of the Falklands, and works as an engineer at Leonardo Helicopters. He chairs the local chamber of commerce.
Dorchester East - Independent for Dorset Katie Jones runs a local pub.
Dorchester West - Independent for Dorset Les Fry is a sitting independent councillor. Claudia Soren for Labour was the parliamentary candidate in 2019.
Winterborne and Broadmayne - The third ward with a Reform candidate and like Beaminster not an especially good prospect for them on paper. Like last time, there are no Labour, Green or independent candidates which will help the Lib Dems hold the seat.
Chalk Valleys - Suprising to see no Green here considering second place in 2019. With no Green, Lib Dems may gain on a good night.
Blandford - 2 SDP candidates here, which is the first time I can remember seeing the Social Democrats standing in Dorset certainly in the 20 years odd I have been following local politics. Of the SDP’s 2 candidates, Daniel Avery is a local handyman and has the advantage of topping the ballot paper whilst a quick search found nothing about Linda Steiner.
Shaftesbury Town - Independent Lester Dibben stood last time getting 147 votes and is a former town councillor. Independent Andrew Reginald Hollingshead scored 360 votes last time. He is a retired Care Quality Commission inspector. Lester Taylor and Steven Unwin standing as Patriots Alliance - English Democrats and UKIP have both long been associated with UKIP and stood last time, Taylor got 250 votes and Unwin 233. They are former town councillors and Lester Taylor was the only ever UKIP candidate for Dorset Police Commissioner back in 2016.
Sturminster Newton - Independent Michael Roake who just missed out last time is not standing again, so probably now looking at a Lib Dem gain.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,053
|
Dorset
Apr 10, 2024 18:33:02 GMT
Post by maxque on Apr 10, 2024 18:33:02 GMT
Labour: 1 everywhere except: 3/3 in Portland, 2/2 in Blandford, Dorchester East, Dorchester West, Swanage, West Purbeck, Westham, 0/1 in Blackmore Vale, Charminster St Mary's, Sherborne East, Sherborne Rural, Sherborne West, Stalbridge & Marnhull, West Parley, Winterborne & Broadmayne, Yetminster, 0/2 in Ferndown North, Ferndown South, St Leonards & St Ives, West Moors & Three Legged Cross, 0/3 in Gillingham Gillingham is 1/3 for Labour.
|
|
|
Post by dp1811 on Apr 12, 2024 13:12:59 GMT
Very interested by the SOPNs. As I’ve said before I’m only really bothered about West Dorset so to go through them in order:
Beaminster: The presence of a Reform candidate here moves this from Lean LD to Likely LD in my mind. Even if Reform only take 50-75 votes from the Tories that’s probably enough to reduce their chance of winning pretty close to zero, unless the independent is on the left but I don’t think he is.
Interesting to note that the Conservative candidate, Craig Monks, is the current Chair of Beaminster Town Council but isn’t standing again. Suggests either the Tories are confident of him getting in or he’s had enough of elected office.
Bridport: A full slate for both Greens and LDs makes this interesting. I had previously thought it would be a no change election here but the lack of obvious split voting now makes that a lot more interesting. I expect the Greens and LDs to both win 1 each but the third seat could go either way. I don’t expect the Tories or Labour to do particularly well here.
There are quite a few neon orange Liberal Democrats Winning Here posters appearing in people’s windows this week. Perhaps the Greens have less of a following in the town than I expected, or many the Libs are just better organised.
For Bridport Town Council, given that the LDs have more candidates than all the other groupings put together (I think) I expect they will comfortable retain overall control, especially with 5/20 essentially already elected. Good news from a democratic point of view that all 5 wards are contested. The lack of Conservative councillors in Bradpole and Bothenhampton and Walditch is surprising given the recent reorganisation and big Council Tax bills for the old parishes. I would have imagined they would’ve been able to get 1 or 2 in Bradpole and made life difficult for the LDs in Bothenhampton.
I also thought the Greens would stand more candidates. The fact that Labour have ended up with more is a little embarrassing in my opinion.
Call: Dorset Council, 1 LD, 1 Green, 1 tossup between the two. Town Council: Likely LD majority but unsure of exact numbers.
Charminster St Mary’s: lack of Labour/Green candidates here should make this a Safe LD hold.
Chesil Bank: Presence of a Labour candidate makes things interesting, but will he take more from LD or Green? My guess is the latter. The LD campaign here is continuing apace while still nothing from the Greens. Have they given up on their top target ward already? Tories have done one (bad) leaflet. A lot of talk of “keeping it local” from them which hasn’t gone down well on my street given that both the LD and the Green live nearby and the Tory does not. Call: Leans LD but could still be all to play for if the Greens make an effort.
Chalk Valleys: No Green candidate means LDs are the favourite to be the progressive challengers, although a Labour candidate living in the ward might challenge that assumption if they make an effort. They won’t win, but may do enough to split the vote. Call: Likely Con as it stands.
Dorchester East: 2x Safe LD holds. Green candidate being a former LD mayor may be interesting but probably represents the Greens thinking about 2029.
Dorchester Poundbury: nothing to suggest this won’t be close again. The lack of the 2019 independent probably favours the Tories slightly, giving their disgruntled voters less of an option to vote elsewhere. Probably Lean LD given the national situation.
Dorchester West: I’d imagine the lack of a second LD here is tactical. I can’t see anyone else making this interesting. 1x Safe LD hold, 1x Safe Ind hold.
Dorchester Town Council: the first that’s over before it begins. LDs already guaranteed 11/20 so just a question of how big will their majority be. Similar to Bridport, the sheer number of candidates across the town suggests that majority will be quite large. Interesting that they’ve only stood 3 for the 4 spaces in Poundbury, so an opportunity for the Tories to make their return to DTC.
Eggardon: Interestingly, I had heard that the Green candidate was going to be someone else. Indeed I have seen a leaflet with this other person’s name and face on. You would think this news supports the LDs as I know they’re working quite hard. Call: Lean Con given just how rural this ward is but don’t count LDs or Greens out.
Lyme and Charmouth: LDs make their return here for the first time since pre-merger in 2019. Given that their candidate is also standing for them for Bridport Town Council I’d imagine he’s just making the numbers up. Given the current climate, I expect the Tories will struggle to unseat the Green. call: likely Green.
Marshwood Vale: 2019 Indy Jackie Sewell stands for the Greens. If she is as well known as she seems to suggest she should romp home given the climate - but local election candidates always seem to overstate how well known they are! Call: Leans Con for the same reasons as Eggardon.
Sherborne East: Jon Andrews stands again. Green candidate also seeking election to Bridport Town Council, which is a helpful message for the LDs. (As an aside, I understand paper candidates but could they really not find someone a bit closer?). Call: Safe LD hold
Sherborne Rural: Robin Legg stands again. Given no Green or Labour candidate here, he will win again. Call: Safe LD hold.
Sherborne West: Independent Taff Martin stood and was unsuccessful in the 2022 Sherborne Town Council by election here. Richard Crabb for the LDs beat him then and probably will again now. Becky Burns stands again for the Tories after last year’s by election. Given Martin is seemingly big in Sherborne’s business community, and stood as a Con in 2019, I would say his candidacy helps the LDs quite a bit, given how close the by election was here last year. Call: Lean LD hold. 2023 By election shows it’s not nailed down when a new candidate stands for them.
Sherborne Town Council: again, over before it begins. LDs already have 7 of 12 guaranteed. No poll in Sherborne West, and only 7 candidates for 6 places in East. I’d imagine the 8th LD will get in and the other four seats will all be various colours of independents by default.
Winterborne and Broadmayne: should have been safe for the LDs anyway but given the lack of Lab and Green again, combined with the presence of Reform here, the LDs should win comfortably. Call: Safe LD hold.
Yetminster: Greens standing here this time when they didn’t in 2019. LD Chris Kippax is a Sherborne Town Councillor who has been reelected unopposed in Sherborne West. Unclear if he is a paper candidate or not - you’d think not given that the LDs were not a million miles away last time. Assuming he isn’t he should have a half a chance unless the Cons can make an issue of him living in Sherborne. Call: Lean Con, given what is mentioned above plus the presence of a Green.
So overall my prediction is currently:
LD 12, Con 4, Green 2, Indy 1, with 1 Tossup. LDs hold all 3 politicised Town Councils. I think the Tories only losing 2 seats here would be a good result for them given the circumstances. I think it’s more likely that they end up losing Beaminster and Chesil Bank, and then 1 (2 on a bad night) of Eggardon, Marshwood Vale and Yetminster. I will keep you updated if any of my predictions change!
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,955
Member is Online
|
Dorset
Apr 17, 2024 20:13:41 GMT
Post by andrewp on Apr 17, 2024 20:13:41 GMT
Without looking at peterl predictions, I went through the wards here and got a finger in the air prediction of LD 40 Con 29 Green 8 Ind 3 Lab 2
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 17, 2024 20:20:31 GMT
Without looking at peterl predictions, I went through the wards here and got a finger in the air prediction of LD 40 Con 29 Green 8 Ind 3 Lab 2 The figures I came up with were identical for Con and LD but I had Green 5 Ind 5 Lab 3
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Dorset
Apr 18, 2024 19:20:26 GMT
Post by peterl on Apr 18, 2024 19:20:26 GMT
|
|
|
Dorset
Apr 18, 2024 20:45:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by dp1811 on Apr 18, 2024 20:45:50 GMT
Not sure it counts as cut and dry when the police have already dismissed the report!
To me this stinks of Tory desperation as we get closer to the elections. I mean really, I know these lot are “local Conservatives” who bear no resemblance at all to their Westminster friends but if the money was there in 2023/4 but not 2024/5, how is that anything except a cut? I just don’t understand the Tory line here. Are they saying that the money never existed in the first place?
Maybe it’s the contrarian in me but this sort of thing just makes me want to vote Lib Dem more. I’m sure they’ll be thrilled about the free publicity too!
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
|
Dorset
Apr 18, 2024 22:31:33 GMT
Post by peterl on Apr 18, 2024 22:31:33 GMT
Not sure it counts as cut and dry when the police have already dismissed the report!To me this stinks of Tory desperation as we get closer to the elections. I mean really, I know these lot are “local Conservatives” who bear no resemblance at all to their Westminster friends but if the money was there in 2023/4 but not 2024/5, how is that anything except a cut? I just don’t understand the Tory line here. Are they saying that the money never existed in the first place? Maybe it’s the contrarian in me but this sort of thing just makes me want to vote Lib Dem more. I’m sure they’ll be thrilled about the free publicity too! The police have dismissed the report because it is an offence specifically to make false representations about a candidate and no specific candidate is referred to. And yes it is somewhat desperate to pick out one item from a list to focus on. And yes the LDs will still be getting some of my votes this year. But its more cut and dry than the last complaint about their leaflets.
|
|