peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 14, 2023 1:53:53 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 14, 2023 1:53:53 GMT
South East Purbeck
1 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 4,242 2021 Census Population: 4,132 2011-2021 Population Change: -2.6% Area: 54.90 Square Miles Population Density: 75 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 13.7%, 18-64 51.9%, 65 and Above 34.3% Percentage Born Abroad: 6.0% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 0.9% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.6% Gender: 51.5% Female, 48.5% Male
2019 result: Con 499, Ind 451/84, Lib Dem 284, Lab 191, UKIP 117
Sitting councillor: Cherry Louise Brooks
Background: South East Purbeck is a huge rural ward with one of Dorset's lowest population densities. It also has one of the county's most elderly populations. The ward extends in a reverse L-shape with Wareham at its north east, Swanage a small enclave from the ward at its the south west corner and West Purbeck to its west. Corfe Castle, a village dominated by the eponymous fortifications ruined during the civil war, is amongst the more recognisable of the ward's series of small settlements. The election of 2019 was a close contest, the Conservatives only narrowly beating independent Nigel Dragon, a local of Corfe who stood unsuccessfully in the final 2017 Dorset County Council elections. This was also a reasonably close ward for the Lib Dems, and might at a stretch be called a three way marginal. All parishes within the ward are non-partisan.
Prediction: Independent gain should Dragon stand again, otherwise Conservative/Lib Dem marginal.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 14, 2023 4:24:57 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 14, 2023 4:24:57 GMT
Swanage
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 9,601 2021 Census Population: 9,426 2011-2021 Population Change: -1.8% Area: 4.33 Square Miles Population Density: 2,179 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 14.5%, 18-64 50.0%, 65 and Above 35.5% Percentage Born Abroad: 7.3% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.3% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.9% Gender: 52.2% Female, 47.8% Male
2019 result: Con 1,546/1,457, Ind 677/351, Lib Dem 592/469, Lab 780/614
Sitting councillors: Gary Maurice Suttle, William Stanley Trite
Background: Swanage is one of only two substantial towns in Purbeck and is situated at the south eastern extreme of the island, surrounded to the north and west by South East Purbeck and on other sides by the English Channel. The earliest recorded reference to Swanage is in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle from 877 when 120 Viking ships floundered off the coast during conditions of obscured visibility. Stone quarrying has been a sizable industry nearby for centuries, but from the early 19th century Swanage has primarily been a tourist town, with then Princess Victoria amongst the earliest visitors. Politically, Swanage routinely returns Conservative councillors, a phenomenon possibly contributed to by the lack of a clear forerunner out of the other parties. Swanage has a partisan town council dominated by the Conservatives which will receive a separate profile.
Prediction: The Conservatives are likely to hold both seats. If Labour were to put in little effort to focus on other areas such as Weymouth, a Lib Dem victory might just be conceivable though their efforts would probably be better spent on neighboring South East Purbeck.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 14, 2023 4:45:26 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 14, 2023 4:45:26 GMT
West Purbeck
2 seats ward.
2011 Census Population: 9,833 2021 Census Population: 9,844 2011-2021 Population Change: +0.10% Area: 56.70 Square Miles Population Density: 174 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 20.5%, 18-64 56.5%, 65 and Above 23.0% Percentage Born Abroad: 7.6% Largest Non-White Group: Asian 1.3% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.7% Gender: Male 51.0%, Female 49.0%
2019 result: Con 1,142/1,064, Ind 848, Lib Dem 556/375, Lab 307/288
Sitting councillors: Laura Jane Miller, Peter Kendrick Wharf
Background: West Purbeck is a long, thin, sparsely populated ward bordering at various points South East Purbeck, Wareham, and Lychett Matravers to the east, Puddletown to the north and west, and Crossways and Winterborne to the south and south west. The village of Shitterton, well known for its unusual name, is located towards the east of this ward. Nearby Bere Regis is one the ward's largest settlements and houses a large church parts of which date to the 12th century. Lulworth, with its noted geological features, is situated to the south of the ward and nearby Lulworth Castle is home to an annual music festival of some regional note. The parishes within the ward are non-partisan.
Prediction: Independent Malcolm Shakesby came within 200 votes of winning in 2019 and might well win if he stands again. Otherwise, a Conservative hold seems the most likely outcome.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,741
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Dorset
Dec 14, 2023 14:05:42 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Dec 14, 2023 14:05:42 GMT
I think that Labour might fancy their chances of getting something in Swanage if the Tories really are under the cosh - they are second after all, so can do the bar charts!
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Dorset
Dec 14, 2023 15:25:04 GMT
Post by batman on Dec 14, 2023 15:25:04 GMT
anecdotally Labour did very well in Swanage on the two recent occasions when they won South Dorset.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 14, 2023 17:14:07 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 14, 2023 17:14:07 GMT
I would expect some impact from whether these elections end up happening on the same day as the general election. If so, and Labour target Dorset South as I expect they will, their vote will be out in force and maybe they get Swanage on the back of it. On paper, based on past local results, it seems a long shot.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on Dec 15, 2023 2:07:22 GMT
Swanage Town Council
Swanage Town Council has 12 councillors divided into 2 x 6 member wards, North and South.
Swanage North 6 seat ward.
2019 result: Con 988/844/838/790/775/774, Lib Dem 641/614, Lab 486/415/373
Elected councillors: Tina Foster, Chris Moreton, John Allen Page, Nicola Jacqueline Rogers, William Stanley Trite, Michael Alan Whitwam. Trite was also returned to Dorset Council.
May 2021 By Election: Con 913, Ind 439, Lab 419. Con Hold.
Swanage South 6 seat ward.
Con 811/722/678/597541/474, Lab 674/614/534/503, Ind 538, Lib Dem 536/407
Elected councillors: Mike Bonfield, Caroline Freda May Finch, Avril Harris, Debby Monkhouse, Gary Maurice Suttle, Chris Tomes. Suttle was also returned to Dorset Council.
Overall Composition:
Conservative 10 Labour 2
Some close results in 2019 and one of few minor authorities in Dorset in which the three major national parties all have some level of support, there is potential for significant growth for Labour for a modest increase in vote share, especially in the South Ward. A Lib Dem breakthrough onto the town council would also be a distinct possibility.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 15, 2023 2:33:40 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 15, 2023 2:33:40 GMT
Wareham Town Council
Wareham Town Council has 16 seats elected at large. In 2019, the election was countermanded and was ultimately held on June 13th.
Lib Dem 752/715/692/623/533/514/496/463, Ind 617/573/494/479/453, Con 373/318/318/304/291/273, Lab 238
Elected councillors: David Anthony Budd, Doreen Rosina Cleaton, Marian Jill Cotton, Keith William Thomas Critchley, Bob Dean, Beryl Rita Ezzard, Hilary Jane Goodinge, Zoe Michelle Gover, Keith John Green, Vera Gladys Green, Maxine Valerie Humphries, Sue Kemp, Lucia Kirk, Malcolm Gregory Russell, Rob Schofield, Carol Eileen Turner. Ezzard was also returned to Dorset Council.
Overall Composition
Lib Dems 8 Independents 5 Conservatives 3
Looking at the numbers from 2019, it seems that the Lib Dems under-nominated and the Tories won a few scraps through good luck. If the Lib Dems stand more candidates they would be likely to win a resounding majority. Only a single Labour candidate stood in 2019 and came bottom of the poll.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 15, 2023 3:18:26 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 15, 2023 3:18:26 GMT
And onto the Weymouth/Portland area...
Crossways
1 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 3,568 2021 Census Population: 3,736 2011-2021 Population Change: +4.6% Area: 15.21 Square Miles Population Density: 246 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 17.5%, 18-64 53.5%, 65 and Above 29.0% Percentage Born Abroad: 6.5% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.3% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.8% Gender: 50.9% Female, 49.1% Male
2019 result: Lib Dem 746, Con 360, Lab 91
Sitting Councillor: Nick Ireland Ireland is the Lib Dem Group Leader on Dorset Council and was the Dorset South Parliamentary candidate in 2019.
Background: Crossways is another of those rural sparsely populated Dorset wards, sitting at the edge of Weymouth and bordering the Littlemoor and Preston ward to the west, the West Purbeck ward to the east and Winterborne to the north west. The village of Crossways itself sits at the north of the ward and was the site of a major fighter base during the Battle of Britain. Osmington to the south east of the ward has been settled since the Bronze Age and is the site of a famous white horse stenciled in chalk on a nearby hill, the rider being modeled on King George III who often holidayed in Weymouth.
Prediction: Safe Lib Dem Hold.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 15, 2023 3:49:42 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 15, 2023 3:49:42 GMT
Littlemore and Preston
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 9,348 2021 Census Population: 9,865 2011-2021 Population Change: +5.4% Area: 3.29 Square Miles Population Density: 2,993 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 16.5%, 18-64 51.7%, 65 and Above 31.7% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.2% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.1% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 1.1% Gender: 52.2% Female, 47.8% Male
2019 result: Con 1,078/988, Ind 741/347, Lab 719/527, Lib Dem 629, Green 505
Elected councillors: Tony Ferrari, Louie James O`Leary
By Election Jan 2024 following the death of Tony Ferrari: Con 1,237, Lib Dem 833, Lab 232. Winning candidate Peter Dickenson was unable to take up his seat as he realised during the campaign that his employment disqualified him from serving on Dorset Council.
Background: Littlemoor and Preston is a by Dorset's standards at least a fairly densely populated ward on the edge of Weymouth, bordering Crossways to the east, Winterborne to the north, Radipole to the south west and Upwey and Broadwey to the west. Littlemoor lies at the western end of the ward and was used as a camp by the Australian Army during World War Two. Preston can be found at the north eastern end of the ward. The village's claim to fame is that it was once the home of the Wesley family who founded the Methodist Movement. Littlemoor and Preston falls within Weymouth Town Council, and is divided at this level into two wards: Littlemoor and Preston. The town council will be covered in a separate profile.
Prediction: With Labour and the Lib Dems both showing strong support and the Tories still managing to win in the recent by election, Littlemoor and Preston can be considered a wild card in the May elections. The top scoring independent Michael Wilkinson would probably have a good chance of winning if he stood again, though he did not stand in the recent by election.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 15, 2023 23:41:02 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 15, 2023 23:41:02 GMT
Upwey and Broadway
1 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 4,316 2021 Census Population: 4,537 2011-2021 Population Change: +5.0% Area: 3.04 Square Miles Population Density: 1,492 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 17.2%, 18-64 55.6%, 65 and Above 27.2% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.0% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.4% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.3% Gender: 50.3% Female, 49.7% Male
2019 result: Lib Dem 555, Con 543, Lab 251
Sitting councillor: Howard Richard Legg
Background: Upwey and Broadway is a long, thin ward sitting at the north of Weymouth and bordering Winterborne to the north and north east, Littlemoor and Preston to the east, Radipole to the south, Chickerell to the west and Chisel Bank to the north west. The village of Upwey, around the center of the ward, has several claims to fame, its railway station having been the subject of a poem by Thomas Hardy, the parish church of St Lawrence dating to the 13th century, and also the birthplace of William Sprague, one of the earliest English colonists in America. Broadwey is a village sitting to the south of Upwey. The north of the ward is home to another of Dorset's amusingly named places, one Gould's Bottom. Upwey and Broadwey is amongst the most marginal wards in Dorset, with the Lib Dems beating the Tories by just 12 votes in 2019. The corresponding town council ward has 1 Conservative and 1 Lib Dem councillor, the Lib Dem being the same Howard Legg.
Prediction: Leans Lib Dem.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 16, 2023 1:17:36 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 16, 2023 1:17:36 GMT
Radipole
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 9,516 2021 Census Population: 9,768 2011-2021 Population Change: +2.6% Area: 1.59 Square Miles Population Density: 6,134 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 16.0%, 18-64 53.9%, 65 and Above 30.1% Percentage Born Abroad: 6.1% Largest Non-White Group: Asian 1.5% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Muslim 0.7% Gender: 51.8% Female, 48.2% Male
2019 result: Lib Dems 536/533, Con 289/239, Lab 224
Sitting Councillors: David Michael Grey, Peter Lawrence Fraser Barrow
Background: Radipole is a small, densely populated ward at the north east of Weymouth bordering Westham and Melcombe Regis to the south, Chickerell to the west, Upwey and Broadway to the north and Littlemoor and Preston to the east. Radipole was originally a parish in its own right and predates both Weymouth and Melcombe Regis, with evidence of settlement in the area since at least Roman times. A significant amount of land towards the center of the ward is occupied by an RSPB nature reserve. The ward elected two Lib Dem councillors by significant majorities in 2019. The town council ward is coterminous and has the same councillors.
Prediction: Comfortable Lib Dem Hold.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 16, 2023 2:45:54 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 16, 2023 2:45:54 GMT
Melcombe Regis
1 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 4,194 2021 Census Population: 4,299 2011-2021 Population Change: +2.5% Area: 0.31 Square Miles Population Density: 13,827 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 13.7%, 18-64 51.9%, 65 and Above 34.3% Percentage Born Abroad: 6.0% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 0.9% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.6% Gender: 51.6% Male, 48.4% Female
2019 result: Green 691, Con 220, Lab 190
Sitting councillor: Jon Orrell
Background: Melcombe Regis is amongst the smallest and most densely populated wards in Dorset. It contains much of Weymouth Town Center, and features include the southern terminal station of the London-Weymouth Railway Line and the local further education college. Melcombe Regis was a town in itself before the establishment of Weymouth, being chartered as a borough in 1268, and eventually being merged into Weymouth in 1920. It was one of the first entry points of the Black Death into England. The "Regis" suffix was added after the area became a popular holiday destination for King George III. Current councillor Jon Orell was only the second Green elected to any principle council in Dorset, first elected to Weymouth Borough Council in 2016. He was the South Dorset Parliamentary candidate in both 2017 and 2019 and will stand again at the next general election. Orrell is also one of the town councillors for Melcombe Regis, alongside Labour's Tia Roos and independent Ken Whatley.
Prediction: Safe Green hold.
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Dorset
Dec 16, 2023 4:06:49 GMT
Post by johnloony on Dec 16, 2023 4:06:49 GMT
Melcombe Regis1 seat ward.2011 Census Population: 4,194 2021 Census Population: 4,299 2011-2021 Population Change: +0.25% … I’m curious about these population statistics you keep quoting. Where do you get the +0.25% from? Is it using a different source or methodology for defining the population, in order to get the percentage changes, instead of using the census figures? e.g. in this igzample, the two censuses have a population increase of 105 from a base of 4,194, i.e. an increase of about 2.5%. Similarly with the other ward profiles, where the change percentages don’t match the raw census numbers. P.S. Looking at more of the profiles, the change percentages you have quoted all seem to be about a tenth of the changes from the raw figures. Have they (or you) merely put the decimal point in the wrong plac?e
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 16, 2023 4:52:21 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 16, 2023 4:52:21 GMT
Melcombe Regis1 seat ward.2011 Census Population: 4,194 2021 Census Population: 4,299 2011-2021 Population Change: +0.25% … I’m curious about these population statistics you keep quoting. Where do you get the +0.25% from? Is it using a different source or methodology for defining the population, in order to get the percentage changes, instead of using the census figures? e.g. in this igzample, the two censuses have a population increase of 105 from a base of 4,194, i.e. an increase of about 2.5%. Similarly with the other ward profiles, where the change percentages don’t match the raw census numbers. P.S. Looking at more of the profiles, the change percentages you have quoted all seem to be about a tenth of the changes from the raw figures. Have they (or you) merely put the decimal point in the wrong plac?e The demographic figures come from a site called city population.de. Though now I look at it again, it's the annual population change, so one tenth would be exactly right. I'll change the figures, probably tomorrow. Well spotted.
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Dorset
Dec 16, 2023 10:41:08 GMT
Post by johnloony on Dec 16, 2023 10:41:08 GMT
I’m curious about these population statistics you keep quoting. Where do you get the +0.25% from? Is it using a different source or methodology for defining the population, in order to get the percentage changes, instead of using the census figures? e.g. in this igzample, the two censuses have a population increase of 105 from a base of 4,194, i.e. an increase of about 2.5%. Similarly with the other ward profiles, where the change percentages don’t match the raw census numbers. P.S. Looking at more of the profiles, the change percentages you have quoted all seem to be about a tenth of the changes from the raw figures. Have they (or you) merely put the decimal point in the wrong plac?e The demographic figures come from a site called city population.de. Though now I look at it again, it's the annual population change, so one tenth would be exactly right. I'll change the figures, probably tomorrow. Well spotted. Oh! That makes sense now.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 16, 2023 18:52:48 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 16, 2023 18:52:48 GMT
OK, all population changes should be correct now.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 16, 2023 20:22:52 GMT
Radipole sounds like it should be represented by Professor Stanley Unwin.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 17, 2023 2:10:34 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 17, 2023 2:10:34 GMT
Westham
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 9,176 2021 Census Population: 9,503 2011-2021 Population Change: +3.50% Area: 1.05 Square Miles Population Density: 9,087 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 19.1%, 18-64 59.5%, 65 and Above 21.5% Percentage Born Abroad: 6.2% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.9% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.9% Gender: 50.5% Female, 49.5% Male
2019 result: Lib Dem 895/836, Lab 471/441, Con 366/345
Sitting councillors: Ryan Dean Hope, Gill Taylor
Background: Westham is a small, densely populated ward in the center of Weymouth. It borders Radipole to the north and north east, Melcombe Regis to the east, Roswell and Wyke to the south and Chickerell to the west. The northern part of the ward is occupied by the Weymouth Golf Club and various other facilities, mostly to the south of the ward, include two schools, a leisure center, a bowling green and two cemeteries. The ward is reasonably strong Lib Dem territory. At town council, Westham falls within three wards, two of which also include parts of other principle authority wards, see profile of Weymouth Town Council when completed.
Prediction: Lib Dem hold.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Dorset
Dec 17, 2023 2:50:57 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 17, 2023 2:50:57 GMT
Rodwell and Wyke
3 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 14,354 2021 Census Population: 13,916 2011-2021 Population Change: -3.1% Area: 1.50 Square Miles Population Density: 9,311 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 17.6%, 18-64 55.3%, 65 and Above 27.1% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.1% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.1% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.6% Gender: 51.4% Female, 48.6% Male
2019 result: Green 2,033/1,258/1,062, Lab 1,403/965/830, Con 911/862/835, Ind 908
Sitting councillors: Clare Sutton, Brian Heatley, Kate Wheller
Background: Rodwell and Wyke encompasses the south west corner of Weymouth, bordering Westham to the north, Melcombe Regis to the north east, the English Channel to the south, Portland to the south west and Chickerell to the north west. The ward encompasses three main areas, Rodwell to the north, Southland appropriately enough to the south and Wyke Regis to the west. It is a largely residential ward, although there are some fields at the western end of the ward and some allotments and playing fields towards the center, there are also some public gardens surrounding the ruins of Sandsfoot Castle, a fortification dating from the reign of King Henry VIII at the south east. Wyke Regis is home to a church dating to 1455 that was frequented by King George III during his holidays in the area. The ward is a Green/Labour marginal, the only one within Dorset Council, and currently has two Green and 1 Labour councillors. The top scoring Green councillor Clare Sutton was formerly with Labour and was first elected as a county councillor in 2005. The second Green Brian Heatley was the Parliamentary candidate for Dorset South in 2010. The ward is divided into three at town council level: Weymouth East, Weymouth West and Wyke Regis. Labour's Kate Wheller is also a town councillor for Wyke Regis.
Prediction: I would expect either 2 Greens and 1 Labour or possibly all 3 Greens. If the general election is held on the same day, this will probably be to Labour's advantage.
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