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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:28:01 GMT
Wokingham
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,362
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 10, 2023 12:14:33 GMT
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Post by redvers on Aug 19, 2023 12:10:27 GMT
Have to assume the Lib Dems will fancy their chance to take an overall majority.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 22, 2023 13:29:15 GMT
The new boundaries look rather bad for Labour, with the Labour vote in Shinfield North comprehensively outvoted by Shinfield South and with Bulmershe & Whitegates divided, with Bulmershe going with the strongly Conservative Coronation area and Whitegates going with LD/Con marginal Maiden Erlegh.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 22, 2023 14:24:09 GMT
The new boundaries look rather bad for Labour, with the Labour vote in Shinfield North comprehensively outvoted by Shinfield South and with Bulmershe & Whitegates divided, with Bulmershe going with the strongly Conservative Coronation area and Whitegates going with LD/Con marginal Maiden Erlegh. I don't want to channel graham here but Labour did win the old unified Shinfield ward in 1990
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 22, 2023 15:12:25 GMT
But no in 1995, which must be a pretty rare pattern.
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Wokingham
Aug 31, 2023 5:50:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Aug 31, 2023 5:50:39 GMT
The new boundaries look rather bad for Labour, with the Labour vote in Shinfield North comprehensively outvoted by Shinfield South and with Bulmershe & Whitegates divided, with Bulmershe going with the strongly Conservative Coronation area and Whitegates going with LD/Con marginal Maiden Erlegh. Bulmershe is probably the strongest part for Labour though, so it'll be close.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Sept 4, 2023 10:56:52 GMT
Good to see that they've managed to split up the abomination that was Remenham, Wargrave and Ruscombe. The Thames ward looks weird but actually makes far more sense than the current ward.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Feb 28, 2024 20:09:34 GMT
The new boundaries look rather bad for Labour, with the Labour vote in Shinfield North comprehensively outvoted by Shinfield South and with Bulmershe & Whitegates divided, with Bulmershe going with the strongly Conservative Coronation area and Whitegates going with LD/Con marginal Maiden Erlegh. The more I think about it the harder it seems to guess what will happen in Maiden Erlegh and Whitegates. This is very much going to be a ward in two halves, the place that loses out the most from everything going to 3 member wards, which is odd as the whole ward is currently parts of existing three member wards. In favour of Labour: Whitegates is the more Labour part of Bulmershe and Whitegates, and Labour have historically had good vote shares in Maiden Erlegh In favour of the Tories: Both existing wards have the Tories in a very competitive second place, and I doubt the areas moving to Hillside are relatively Tory, even if the areas moving to Hawkedon and Bulmershe and Coronation probably are. In favour of the Lib Dems: Maiden Erlegh has definitely been shifting in the Lib Dem's direction in recent years. And just as Labour used to have strong vote shares in Maiden Erlegh before the Lib Dems pushed them aside, Bulmershe and Whitegates was a very strong seat for the Lib Dems before the rise of Labour first handed it to the Tories and then Labour themselves started winning seats there. I have a reasonable idea how most of the rest of the wards are likely to go, although several wards are likely to be affected by whether or not there's a General Election the same day, but this one I haven't the foggiest for. I imagine it will likely end up as a split ward, but split between whom I could not tell. I guess it's just the old curse of Maiden Erlegh unpredictability coming back just when it was starting to look more predictable.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,629
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 29, 2024 22:30:34 GMT
I suspect all three parties will be campaigning hard for the new Woodley & Earley seat which might add unpredictablitty
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Apr 8, 2024 11:32:29 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,795
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 11:43:14 GMT
Conservative - 54 Lib Dem - 54 Labour - 54 Green - 8 (1/3 in Barkham & Arborfield, Bulmershe & Coronation, Emmbrook, Hillside, Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates, Spencers Wood & Swallowfield, 'Twyford, Ruscombe & Hurst', Westcott) TUSC - 2 (1/3 in Norreys, Winnersh) Independent - 1 (Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates)
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Post by carolus on Apr 8, 2024 11:44:05 GMT
54 Con 54 Lab 54 LD 8 Green: 1/3 in Barkham & Arborfield, Bulmershe & Coronation, Emmbrook, Hillside, Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates, Spencers Wood & Swallowfield, "Twyford, Ruscombe & Hurst", Wescott 2 TUSC: 1/3 in Norreys, Winnersh
1 Ind: 1/3 in Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates
There's a failed TUSC nomination in Spencers Wood & Swallowfield
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,335
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Post by ricmk on Apr 8, 2024 11:47:17 GMT
I make that: Con/Lab/LD 54: full slate Green 8: 1 candidate in Barkham & Arborfield, Bulmershe & Coronation, Emmbrook, Hillside, Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates, Spencers Wood & Swallowfield, Twyford Ruscombe & Hurst, Wescott. Ind 1: Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates TUSC 2: Norreys, Winnersh. 1 rejected TUSC nomination in Spencers Wood & Swallowfield "The particulars of the candidate are not as required by law" EDIT: gotta be quick to beat the lightning fingers here
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Post by nobodyimportant on Apr 8, 2024 12:01:42 GMT
Councillors standing down: Keith Baker - Coronation Con Laura Blumethal - South Lake Con Gary Cowan - Arborfield Ind Peter Dennis - Wescott LD Lindsay Ferris - Twyford LD John Halsall - RWR Con Pauline Helliar-Symons - Wokingham Without Con Graham Howe - RWR Con Clive Jones - Hawkedon LD Sarah Kerr - Evendons LD Morag Malvern - Emmbrook LD Ian Pittock - Barkham LD Ian Shenton - Evendons LD
Councillors moving to a non-obvious seat: Anne Chadwick - Con - Loddon -> Winnersh Andy Croy - Lab - Bulmershe and Whitegates -> Wescott Wayne Smith - Con - Hurst -> Thames
Both Lib Dems in Shinfield South are going to Spencers Wood and Swallowfield, while the Con in Shinfield South is going to Shinfield.
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 8, 2024 17:19:39 GMT
Councillors standing down: Keith Baker - Coronation Con Laura Blumethal - South Lake Con Gary Cowan - Arborfield Ind Peter Dennis - Wescott LD Lindsay Ferris - Twyford LD John Halsall - RWR Con Pauline Helliar-Symons - Wokingham Without Con Graham Howe - RWR Con Clive Jones - Hawkedon LD Sarah Kerr - Evendons LD Morag Malvern - Emmbrook LD Ian Pittock - Barkham LD Ian Shenton - Evendons LD Councillors moving to a non-obvious seat: Anne Chadwick - Con - Loddon -> Winnersh Andy Croy - Lab - Bulmershe and Whitegates -> Wescott Wayne Smith - Con - Hurst -> Thames Both Lib Dems in Shinfield South are going to Spencers Wood and Swallowfield, while the Con in Shinfield South is going to Shinfield. I'd read the Conservative going from Loddon to Winnersh as essentially a retiree making up the numbers whereas Wayne Smith's new seat is probably a better chance of him holding than the new seat including Hurst which is mixed in with Twyford.
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Wokingham
Apr 8, 2024 17:21:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by heslingtonian on Apr 8, 2024 17:21:47 GMT
Former Conservative European Parliament candidate and Bracknell Forest Cabinet Member Marc Brunel-Walker is keeping us in suspension by standing as a Liberal Democrat in Wokingham Without ward.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Apr 8, 2024 17:37:26 GMT
Councillors standing down: Keith Baker - Coronation Con Laura Blumethal - South Lake Con Gary Cowan - Arborfield Ind Peter Dennis - Wescott LD Lindsay Ferris - Twyford LD John Halsall - RWR Con Pauline Helliar-Symons - Wokingham Without Con Graham Howe - RWR Con Clive Jones - Hawkedon LD Sarah Kerr - Evendons LD Morag Malvern - Emmbrook LD Ian Pittock - Barkham LD Ian Shenton - Evendons LD Councillors moving to a non-obvious seat: Anne Chadwick - Con - Loddon -> Winnersh Andy Croy - Lab - Bulmershe and Whitegates -> Wescott Wayne Smith - Con - Hurst -> Thames Both Lib Dems in Shinfield South are going to Spencers Wood and Swallowfield, while the Con in Shinfield South is going to Shinfield. I'd read the Conservative going from Loddon to Winnersh as essentially a retiree making up the numbers whereas Wayne Smith's new seat is probably a better chance of him holding than the new seat including Hurst which is mixed in with Twyford. Makes sense, and I'd say he's pretty much guaranteed to hold on in Thames ward.
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Post by nobodyimportant on May 3, 2024 14:35:13 GMT
Wokingham Without 2x LD 1x Con
Lib Dem Marc Brunel-Walker topped the poll, with Lib Dem incumbent Jordan Montgomerie 2nd and Con Seona Turtle beating out Con incumbent David Davies for the 3rd seat. LD Chris Salmon quite a way back in 5th, but above former Con Emmbrook councillor Ullakarin Clark.
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 3, 2024 14:51:01 GMT
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