|
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:26:58 GMT
Reading
|
|
|
Post by redvers on Sept 3, 2023 22:56:39 GMT
Recap of May 2023- Elected by thirds.
- Post-election composition: 32 Labour, 7 Green, 5 Conservative, 3 Lib Dem, 1 Independent (left Labour during term). 25 for a majority.
- Only change was a Labour gain in Caversham Heights, though a few of the Holds are themselves interesting.
- Stupendously, the Tories managed to hold onto their final seat in Kentwood, despite needing a 3.24% swing in their favour from 2022. In the end, it was a healthy lead of 6%. I don't know if it was a strong Tory candidate (incumbent running again), a poor Labour candidate, a poor Labour campaign...or all of those things.
- Almost as stupendously, Labour hung onto their final seat in Redlands, despite needing a 1.94% swing in their favour from 2022 against the Greens. Although a close 2022 result, Labour have long got themselves into a rut of losing entire wards once the Greens gain a foothold. This is a rare reverse to that pattern, much of it I gather due to the strength of the first-term councillor.
- Labour's gain of a second seat in Caversham Heights points to the remarkable collapse of the Tories north of the river. Labour wins here are unprecedented, even by the standards of the 1990s.
- The collapse first began in the early 2010s with a Labour win in the river-border ward of Caversham, but has now extended to Labour threatening what used to be the old ward of Peppard (now basically Emmer Green ward), long assumed a never-ever Labour target.
- As recently as 2010, the Conservatives were near the largest-party on the council, but are now reduced to a rump of 5 councillors. More than mid-term blues, it points to the shifting patterns of political support in urban areas like Reading. Whilst I am sure they can claw their way somewhat back when Labour experiences its next mid-term blues, one must assume it is unlikely to be a quick process.
- The Greens had one of their more disappointing election results in recent years , falling behind in every ward except Katesgrove. Even in Abbey, their next logical target after sweeping Park, Redlands, and Katesgrove, they fell back to third place.
- Lib Dems failed to threaten anywhere, still fortressed in their lone ward in Tilehurst.
Labour targets- The Greens require a 3.11% swing in their favour to hold onto Redlands. However, I gather much of the surprise Labour hold was due to the strength of its candidate, so unless they can clone him, I would be surprised to see Labour really making a gain.
- Labour remains tantalisingly close to winning Emmer Green off the Conservatives, which would be unprecedented in its history. A 1.62% swing is needed, but resources north of the river will have to be divided into holding their seat in Caversham Heights.
- Park ward, despite long been taken over by the Greens, has never really fallen out of contention by Labour. They require a 7.81% swing, but one suspects it will take a combination of a strong Labour candidate/campaign and an exceptionally weak Green candidate/campaign to really pull off a surprise here.
Green targets- With Labour requiring a 4.81% swing to retain their final seat in Katesgrove, the Greens will be eyeing this prospect hungrily.
Conservative targets- Labour requires a 3% swing in their favour to retain their seat in Kentwood. Without knowing how much the Conservative surprise hold was down to any unique factors of the 2023 campaign, hard to know how realistic a Tory gain may be.
- The Tories require a 1.83% swing in their favour to regain Caversham Heights, not insurmountable, especially if the polls improve.
Lib Dem targets- None. There is just nowhere they are in contention outside of Tilehurst.
Expected ranges
Labour (29-35) Greens (5-8) Conservatives (4-7) Lib Dems (3)
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Sept 4, 2023 7:38:05 GMT
Can't imagine coming anywhere near winning, and quite plausibly could fall back again, but the LDs did get their second place (17.5%, 40% behind) in the recent Norcot byelection. So if there's going to be any signs of life outside Tilehurst, then presumably it is likely to be next door in Norcot.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,796
|
Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 13:59:28 GMT
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,337
|
Post by ricmk on Apr 8, 2024 13:59:56 GMT
|
|
|
Post by nobodyimportant on May 3, 2024 4:59:23 GMT
Lab gain Caversham Heights from Con Lab gain Emmer Green from Con Green gain Katesgrove from Lab
No change elsewhere; Greens absolutely dominant in Redlands - 63.6% to Lab's 22.4%
|
|
|
Reading
May 3, 2024 5:33:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 3, 2024 5:33:39 GMT
Lab gain Caversham Heights from Con Lab gain Emmer Green from Con Green gain Katesgrove from Lab No change elsewhere; Greens absolutely dominant in Redlands - 63.6% to Lab's 22.4% The EG result is absolutely nuts. It isn't posh like Cav Heights, but Labour never even got close for as long as I can remember. Simon Robinson is Mr Cav Park Village, so if his personal vote is disapeering, it isn't looking good for their future on the council. Labour continue to shed inner Reading votes - I reckon the Greens will target Abbey next.
|
|
Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,526
|
Post by Sharon on May 3, 2024 12:12:52 GMT
Lab gain Caversham Heights from Con Lab gain Emmer Green from Con Green gain Katesgrove from Lab No change elsewhere; Greens absolutely dominant in Redlands - 63.6% to Lab's 22.4% The EG result is absolutely nuts. It isn't posh like Cav Heights, but Labour never even got close for as long as I can remember. Simon Robinson is Mr Cav Park Village, so if his personal vote is disapeering, it isn't looking good for their future on the council. Labour continue to shed inner Reading votes - I reckon the Greens will target Abbey next. Emmer Green has been close in the last 2 elections.
|
|
|
Reading
May 3, 2024 12:39:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 3, 2024 12:39:03 GMT
The EG result is absolutely nuts. It isn't posh like Cav Heights, but Labour never even got close for as long as I can remember. Simon Robinson is Mr Cav Park Village, so if his personal vote is disapeering, it isn't looking good for their future on the council. Labour continue to shed inner Reading votes - I reckon the Greens will target Abbey next. Emmer Green has been close in the last 2 elections. It has been, but Simon hasn't been up. He has a sizeable personal vote.
|
|