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Post by innocentabroad on May 10, 2013 7:22:25 GMT
I totally underestimated UKIP in these two by-elections in what are now Asian dominated wards - 20% in Oldham and Barking whihc probably equates to about a 40% share of the white vote, similar to what we got in Cliftonville. I hope Jerry Hayes is taking note Pete, are you now admitting that your Party is only pitching for the "white British" vote? In other words, the difference between UKIP and the BNP is mainly one of presentation? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2013 7:44:27 GMT
Not at all but it is an obvious fact that our support is disproportionately high amongst White British voters and lower amongst ethnic minorities. The same is true of the Conservative party. That is not to say that we do not get votes from ethnic minority voters and we had plenty of ethnic minority candidates so comparisons with the BNP in that respect are absurd. It is a well established psephological fact that the types of ethnic minority voter presnt in large numbers in Oldham and Barking vote rather monolithically for Labour
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Post by paulypaul on May 10, 2013 9:44:09 GMT
Because everyone including the agents F-ed up. Comparable but different was 2005 in St Albans North, I asked for a recount more out of duty than out of expectaion the Tory majority was I think 68. Odd 1s found wrong then 6 20s in a Tory hundred. And finally 11 hundereds in a LD thousand won us the seat. I should have caught that at the verification. Lesson learnt. I do ask for verification figures as a matter of course now. A similar thing happened to one of our rookie candidates in a shire district. The count was being held in one room, but the candidates were for some unknown reason were in another. The Returning Officer came in to say that they were in a position to announce the result and that my guy had lost by 47 votes. He was on his own and I'd primed him to ask for a recount if he was 50 votes or less behind the other candidate. So he promptly requested a recount and the RO went off and returned to tell the candidates that they had discovered a 'significant' discrepency and were undertaking a full recount. 3 lots of 25 votes for our candidate had been included in an opposition candidate's pile and one pile of 25 votes had one of the opposition candidate's ballot paper on top and the rest of the votes were for us. Needless to say that our candidate won, after a 3rd recount, confirmed the figures. |
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Post by drewish on May 10, 2013 10:10:07 GMT
Good result for TUSC (6.7%) in Abbey Ward, Leicester - we had never stood there before and now have a base on which to build. We were the only party campaigning against all the cuts. The Independent's leaflet was bigoted in opposing traveller sites - complete NIMBYism, but would have attracted much of the protest vote.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786 
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Post by john07 on May 10, 2013 12:08:48 GMT
RESULT: Leicester City - Abbey Ward Lab 1190 Con 562 Ind 352 Lib Dem 212 Soc 165 Lab 47.9% (+0.8%) Con 22.6% (+9%) Ind 14.8% (n/a) L/D 8.6% (+1.79%) Soc 6.65% (n/a) Great result for the Conservatives there! If the Labour percentage vote went by 0.8%, the Tories by 9%, the L/D by 1.79%, the IND up to 14.8%, and the SOC up to 6.65%, where did the 33% of the vote come from? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on May 10, 2013 12:10:11 GMT
Lab 47.9% (+0.8%) Con 22.6% (+9%) Ind 14.8% (n/a) L/D 8.6% (+1.79%) Soc 6.65% (n/a) Great result for the Conservatives there! If the Labour percentage vote went by 0.8%, the Tories by 9%, the L/D by 7.79%, the IND up to 14.8%, and the SOC up to 6.65%, where did the 39% of the vote come from? UKIP and mainly the Liberal Party (who finished second last time, well fourth, seventh and eighth really). Look at the opening post of the thread |
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Post by paulypaul on May 10, 2013 12:58:30 GMT
Result: South Emsall TC
ASKEW, Richard - Labour Party Candidate - 591 Elected
SULLIVAN, Martyn - Independent - 239
Majority 352
Spoiled Votes 12
% turnout 17.16%
Total Votes 842
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Post by middleenglander on May 10, 2013 21:28:48 GMT
Barking & Dagenham LB, Longbridge - Labour hold | Party | 2013 vote | 2013 share | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | since 2006 "top" | since 2006 "average" | | Labour | 1,555 | 64.3% | +20.0% | +20.6% | +38.1% | +37.6% | | UKIP | 466 | 19.3% | +14.1% | +13.6% | +4.9% | +4.4% | | Conservatives | 284 | 11.7% | -4.7% | -1.5% | -13.5% | -11.4% | | Lib Dem | 78 | 3.2% | -13.5% | -15.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | BNP | 37 | 1.5% | -7.6% | -8.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | | | -6.1% | -6.0% | -22.1% | -22.8% | | Green | | | | | -12.1% | -12.5% | | Other | | | -2.2% | -2.5% | | | | Total votes | 2,420 | | -5,011 | -4,248 | -2,440 | -2,276 |
Swing UKIP to Labour ~3% / 3½% since 2010 whilst Conservative to Labour ~11% / 12% - swings compared to 2006 not very meaningful Leicester UA, Abbey - Labour hold | Party | 2013 vote | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 1,190 | 48.0% | -3.9% | -6.9% | +10.4% | +9.5% | | Conservatives | 562 | 22.7% | +7.7% | +8.3% | +7.8% | +7.3% | | Independent | 352 | 14.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 212 | 8.5% | +0.9% | +1.6% | -6.7% | -5.5% | | TUSAC | 165 | 6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberals | | | -15.7% | -14.5% | -32.3% | -32.2% | | UKIP | | | -9.9% | -9.4% | | | | Total votes | 2,481 | | -564 | -334 | -837 | -716 |
Swing Labour to Conservatives 6% / 7½% since 2011, not very meaningful since 2007 Oldham MB, Alexandra - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 1,553 | 70.7% | +24.3% | +11.2% | +36.3% | +41.6% | | UKIP | 412 | 18.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 96 | 4.4% | -14.5% | -12.7% | -16.6% | -29.4% | | Conservatives | 80 | 3.6% | -31.2% | -19.8% | -20.1% | -26.9% | | Green | 55 | 2.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | | | | | -16.2% | | | Independent | | | | | -4.7% | -6.6% | | Total votes | 2,196 | | -177 | -470 | -1,691 | -561 |
Swing Conservatives to Labour 28% since 2012 and 15% since 2011 - whilst Lib Dems to Labour 19% since 2012 and 12% since 2011 Thanet BC, Cliftonville East - UKIP gain from Conservative | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | UKIP | 699 | 40.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservatives | 526 | 30.6% | -15.3% | -15.5% | -29.3% | -29.0% | | Labour | 352 | 20.5% | +0.6% | +1.3% | -4.4% | -3.5% | | Independent | 112 | 6.5% | -16.7% | -17.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 32 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | | | -10.9% | -11.1% | -15.3% | -16.4% | | Total votes | 1,721 | | -865 | -818 | -586 | -429 |
Swings not very meaningful
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