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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:14:30 GMT
Cheltenham
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Post by swindonlad on Aug 11, 2023 14:52:24 GMT
There are boundary changes this year in Cheltenham, so direct comparisons will be tricky. However, the council will remain to have 20 wards with 2 councillors per ward.
The current political makeup of the Council is 30 Liberal Democrats 5 Conservative 2 People Against Bureaucracy 2 Green 1 non-aligned, elected as a Liberal Democrat
At the last election, in 2022, 17 of the 20 wards were won by the Liberal Democrats (including a double election in College ward), with some fairly comfortable majorities. The Conservatives won just 1, Battledown, which was the only ward with 2 Conservative councillors after the election; however, in a byelection the Liberal Democrats gained one of the seats here. The Greens won in St Paul's, the only downside for the Liberal Democrats as this was a loss for them, but they hold the other seat. The final ward is Prestbury where People Against Bureaucracy won comfortably, this is the only ward where the Liberal Democrats don't have a councillor coming 4th with 15% of the vote.
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Post by carolus on Aug 20, 2023 7:44:20 GMT
It looks like the boundary changes aren't too severe - I may be wrong as the new LGBCE boundary mapper is pretty bad compared to the old one.
It looks like mostly minor changes, with the largest changes being Park gains some of Warden Hill which in turn gains part of Up Hatherly, and Benhall & The Reddings gains part of Hesters Way.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,795
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Post by iain on Aug 20, 2023 8:18:56 GMT
Yes the boundary changes aren't very consequential. The biggest impact will probably be the ending of Tory hopes in Hesters Way. I'll go through ward by ward at some point.
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Post by carolus on Apr 5, 2024 16:31:19 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 5, 2024 16:43:09 GMT
Wow - end of an era in Prestbury. They will get their first ever party councillor.
Other things to note based on a quick scan: LD to Green defector Wendy Flynn is somewhat surprisingly defending her seat in Hesters Way. LD councillor in St Paul's is moving ward. Indy Daud McDonald is back for another go in St Paul's.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 5, 2024 18:03:20 GMT
Slightly surprised that we couldn't find a candidate for Springbank
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 5, 2024 18:07:06 GMT
Wow - end of an era in Prestbury. They will get their first ever party councillor.Other things to note based on a quick scan: LD to Green defector Wendy Flynn is somewhat surprisingly defending her seat in Hesters Way. LD councillor in St Paul's is moving ward. Indy Daud McDonald is back for another go in St Paul's. Who would you expect to benefit from that?
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 5, 2024 18:49:42 GMT
Slightly surprised that we couldn't find a candidate for Springbank I think it's to do with the CLP organisation. Springbank has moved into Tewkesbury, and Tewkesbury CLP has a long history of not finding candidates in Cheltenham. Wow - end of an era in Prestbury. They will get their first ever party councillor.Other things to note based on a quick scan: LD to Green defector Wendy Flynn is somewhat surprisingly defending her seat in Hesters Way. LD councillor in St Paul's is moving ward. Indy Daud McDonald is back for another go in St Paul's. Who would you expect to benefit from that? Nationally I'm pretty sure it votes Conservative, but given their local organisation I'd ordinarily be tempted to say the Lib Dems. However, given the Greens appear to have been working the ward, including in the recent by-election - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Cheltenham_Borough_Council_election#Prestbury_2 - my working assumption is that they will take the 2nd seat.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 6, 2024 11:22:52 GMT
- 26/31 Lib Dems are restanding, though, as noted above, the incumbent in St Paul’s is switching wards - 4/5 Conservatives are restanding, but two are switching wards and both (certainly one of them) look more like filling the slate than seriously hoping for re-election - 2/2 Greens are restanding - 1/2 PABs are restanding, with the other seat not being defended In relation to Pete Whitehead’s query above, I do note that one of the Conservative candidates in Prestbury is Stephan Fifield, their popular incumbent councillor for Pittville, and current county councillor for Pittville & Prestbury. He easily carried Prestbury in his election in 2021 (candidates for the county division and Pittville ward were identical, so you can work out fairly easily how Prestbury must have voted) so it’s possible that the Tories are giving the ward a go.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 8, 2024 19:45:13 GMT
Max Wilkinson, LD PPC for Cheltenham is standing down from the council, saving everyone the by election when he is elected to parliament later this year!
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 10, 2024 16:22:17 GMT
Working my way broadly clockwise around the town, here are the first half of the ward profiles:
Swindon Village Should probably be called ‘Wymans Brook’, which is a socioeconomically middling area of 1970s developments, and which makes up more than half the population of the ward. Swindon Village itself to the north still retains the feel of being its own village, and is rather wealthier with very high levels of home ownership, but only makes up around a fifth of the population. It’s also slightly smaller than the small area of St Paul’s included in the south of the ward, which is made up of older terraces and council houses, and is far poorer than the rest of the ward. Boundary changes see a couple of hundred voters in a relatively downmarket suburban area moved to Springbank in the south west.
Generally speaking a safe Lib Dem ward, the only exception being a narrow PAB victory in 2004. With the slow PAB death in recent years, it is tough to see the Lib Dems being challenged here for the foreseeable. This was the only ward in Cheltenham which we got data from the EU referendum for, showing a remain lead by around a percentage point. However, with postal votes from around the town mixed in, it seems likely Swindon Village narrowly voted leave.
Prestbury A former village which has been absorbed into Cheltenham (indeed, it is the home of Cheltenham racecourse), Prestbury nonetheless retains a strong, separate identity. The older village centre is fairly pretty, but the vast bulk of the ward is made up of modern estates of semis and detached houses, which are often owned outright. All in all, it is socioeconomically similar to many of the traditionally Conservative wards in the south of the town. The only small boundary change sees the half of Pittville Student Village which was previously in the ward removed.
As noted in the thread above, Prestbury ward and its successors have only ever voted PAB. The Tories have got semi-close before, and easily carried it in the 2021 county elections (when there was no PAB candidate), but more recently it has been the Greens who have attempted to challenge. With only one PAB candidate standing my guess is he will win alongside the Green 2023 by-election candidate, Jan Foster, but I wouldn’t totally rule out the Conservatives winning the second seat either.
Pittville A very pleasant area in the north of the town, the ward is based not around a single community, but around Pittville Park. The areas to the north blend seamlessly into Prestbury, whilst to the east is mostly interwar suburbia. The south however, whilst still well-off on the whole, has a significantly younger median age and contains a large number of private renters, both in purpose built flats and converted Georgian houses. This latter area probably makes up around 40% of voters. There are extremely minor boundary changes in the south, whilst in the north the ward now contains the whole of Pittville Student Village (which is relatively small), with the northern half added from Prestbury.
A PAB stronghold for a long time, only broken by a Tory win in 2008 after the temporary retirement of one of the two long-term councillors; this streak came to an end in 2016 with Lib Dem victory. The Lib Dems only beat the Conservatives to the second seat by 4 votes in 2018, and in 2021 the losing Tory, Stephan Fifield, easily gained the seat. 2022 saw the Lib Dems back with a vengeance, though, and with Fifield moving to stand in Prestbury the yellows have to be favoured to win both seats here.
Oakley Another somewhat bizarre name, as much of what most people would term Oakley is actually in Battledown. The ward is dominated by the large interwar council estates of Lynworth and Whaddon, and around a third of residents still rent from the council. Large numbers work in routine and semi-routine occupations, and deprivation is relatively high. The boundaries are unchanged.
Previously a Labour part of the town, with only a few interruptions, the Lib Dems gained a seat in 2006, and haven’t looked back: Labour more often than not fails to even make second place nowadays. They managed to put a couple of serious campaigns together during the Corbyn years, but in truth did not come very close, and this remains a safe ward for the Lib Dems.
St Paul’s Just north of the town centre, St Paul’s is a ward of pretty grotty pre-war terraces. A clear majority of residents here rent: mostly private, but also with a sizable social component. Deprivation is relatively high, and most people work in routine and semi-routine employment. The ward is also home to the Francis Close Hall university campus, and most of the town’s student housing, with students making up a quarter to a third of the electorate. Boundary changes are close to non-existent.
In General Elections St Paul’s is now probably the strongest Lib Dem area of the town, but on the local level they have struggled to poll a convincing share of the vote for the best part of 10 years. Despite that, split opposition always resulted in a Lib Dem win, before the Greens gained a first seat on the council in 2022 with only Lib Dem and Tory opposition. I’d expect their sitting councillor to be re-elected, with the question being whether she can drag her running mate over the line. The field this time is pretty crowded crowded (notably, Daud McDonald, who had previously pulled in over 20% as an Independent has re-entered the fray, after sitting out 2022) which I instinctively think the Lib Dems will be happier with, but the hardworking Lib Dem incumbent has moved to Oakley, which probably tells you which way she thinks the wind is blowing.
All Saints Taking in the north east of the town centre, All Saints is a middle class ward of fairly smart terraces. However, this is middle class territory in the same way as the south end of Pittville. There is low deprivation and large numbers work in managerial roles, but there are high numbers of private renters and relatively few own their home outright. The ward boundaries are unchanged.
Traditionally a swing area, it has always voted Lib Dem in its current guise, albeit sometimes fairly narrowly. Nowadays it is very securely Lib Dem, as the comparatively younger, highly educated middle classes have turned their back on the current Conservative Party.
Battledown A bit of a disparate ward containing a number of different communities, though all are rather wealthy. Battledown itself is Cheltenham’s last Victorian-era private estate, and is very exclusive. It makes up a large area of the ward, but comparatively little of the population. Other areas include overspill from Charlton Kings, All Saints and a couple of new build estates in Oakley. Owner occupation is uniformly high (though the new build estates have low outright ownership) and high numbers work in managerial jobs. Boundary changes remove a few houses on London Road and are insignificant.
When Battledown was created in 2002 the Conservatives only won the second seat by 10 votes, but after that it settled into being one of their most reliable wards in the town. It was the only ward never to have voted anything other than Conservative, that is until a by-election in early 2023 when the Lib Dems easily gained a seat. This will see a big battle this year as the Tories fight to remain on the council.
Charlton Kings Once a village of its own, Charlton Kings has now grown into Cheltenham but does retain some of its own identity. It’s another middle class area of the town, though it is more mixed than some other wards. There are not insignificant levels of private and social renting, whilst at the other end of the scale the south east of the ward includes a few private roads. It is another ward which is totally untouched in the boundary changes.
A bit of a bellwether, the Conservatives held the ward up until 2010, and it has voted Lib Dem ever since. Majorities have never been massive, and this was one of the Tories’ less bad results (it was still bad) in 2022, but given the expected context of this year’s elections it is hard to look past a couple of comfortable Lib Dem holds.
Charlton Park Very much a ‘leftovers’ ward, taking in parts of Charlton Kings and the edges of Leckhampton, then stretching right up to the beginnings of the town centre. It is largely similar in character to Charlton Kings ward, though on the whole is slightly more upmarket, with, for instance, larger numbers working in higher managerial roles and far fewer social renters. The boundary changes add a tiny area from Battledown and a few roads from Leckhampton, which aren’t very different in character from the rest of Charlton Park.
From its creation in 2002 Charlton Park always voted Conservative, often comfortably, until the Lib Dems gained it in a delayed election in 2014. The Tories haven’t managed to score another win since then, though Lib Dem majorities have more often than not been in the double rather than triple figures. Were a meaningful Conservative recovery on the cards in the town, which there is currently no sign of, this might be a place to look for it.
College This is the sort of area most people think of when they think of Cheltenham: the ward includes Cheltenham College and the Lido, whilst most of the housing is large and Georgian towards the town centre, and pretty Victorian terraces further out. The ward is middle class, though with a real mix of renters, mortgagors and outright owners. Much of the workforce of the hospital, which is in the ward, live here. Boundary changes see College gain a row of terraces from Leckhampton but lose a couple of streets in the town centre to Park.
The Lib Dems have never lost this ward, though it was often fairly close in the noughties. Recently the Conservatives have fallen away from competitiveness, and I wouldn’t expect that to change even if they staged a miraculous recovery nationally. This one can safely be put in the Lib Dem column for the time being.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 16, 2024 15:10:26 GMT
And the second half:
Leckhampton A wealthy ward in the south of the town, where over half of residents own their home outright and well over half work in managerial roles. There is some private rented accommodation close to the town centre and a small council estate in the east, but neither of these areas are large enough to have a meaningful impact on the ward’s voting behaviour. Boundary changes see Leckhampton lose a small area of terraces in the north to College and a slightly more significant area in the south east to Charlton Park.
Traditionally a Conservative area, the Lib Dems have only tended to carry the ward in very good elections: even in 2018 with ex-MP Martin Horwood as their candidate they only topped the poll by 13 votes. In 2021 the Greens targeted the ward, and though they were nowhere near winning themselves, they did act as a significant spoiler. In 2022, however, Horwood held his seat by 900 votes as the Greens shrunk back and Conservatives melted down. Given that, the Lib Dems must be favoured to gain the second seat here, but old patterns reasserting themselves can’t be totally ruled out.
Lansdown The southwest of the town centre, including the Promenade, half of Montpellier and the Ladies College. Parts of this ward, particularly in the south (Lansdown proper), are extremely wealthy, with demographics similar to the private Battledown Estate. However, almost half of households nowadays are private renters, living in small terraces, newly built flats (especially near the town centre) or large, converted Georgian properties. Boundary changes see 500 or so electors in a middling-area of terraces added from St Peter’s.
Generally a Tory banker, despite the changing demographics, the Lib Dems finally won for the first time since the mid-90s in 2022. The Conservative floor here is high, and they are helped by differential turnout (overall turnout is far lower here than other wards where the Tories are competitive), with younger renters in new build flats often difficult to reach. This does have the feel of an area which might be slipping out of the Tory grasp for good, but they have been remarkably resilient here and will feel they still have a decent chance of hanging on to at least one seat. Boundary changes could make the difference for the Lib Dems in a tight race however.
Park Named for The Park, a desirable road of large villas looping around one of the university campuses. To the north of The Park is Tivoli, a middle class area with large numbers working in managerial jobs, but with an increasing number of private renters. To the south is a large modern development, which again is rather wealthy - it has the highest proportion of ‘higher managerial’ workers in the town. Boundary changes see a couple of roads near the town centre added from College, but the entire west of the old ward, another wealthy area with a few hundred voters, removed.
Traditionally the safest Conservative ward in the town, one seat was gained by now-Lib Dem PPC Max Wilkinson from nowhere in 2014, and the ward has remained split ever since. The Tory vote has slipped here, similar to wards like Lansdown and All Saints, as upwardly-mobile young voters have drifted away from the party nationally, but the solid, wealthy base vote is stronger here than anywhere else in Cheltenham. The Lib Dems will be throwing a lot at this one after a good win in 2022, and I feel the boundary changes may narrowly favour them, but another split result wouldn’t surprise me.
Warden Hill The first of a number of wards of humdrum 1950s/60s suburbia in the south west of the town, Warden Hill is socioeconomically middling to high. Boundary changes here are relatively major, and do alter the complexion of the ward. It loses a few hundred voters in the west to Up Hatherley; an area similar to the rest of Warden Hill except for the fact that it includes half of a small council estate, making the ward even more owner-occupied. This is replaced by the west of Park, which on the bright side reunites Bournside in a single ward, but on the less good side shoehorns areas right up to Lansdown Road into Warden Hill, making the new ward rather disparate. The new area is on the whole pretty upscale.
Warden Hill somewhat surprisingly split between the Tories and Lib Dems in its first election in 2002, before settling down to voting Conservative. The Lib Dems gained a seat in 2010 but then lost it again, before winning again in 2016 and holding on since, though often narrowly. The boundary changes should make this a prime pick up opportunity for the Conservatives, but given the national context that looks unlikely this year.
Up Hatherley Another mixed suburban area built post-war, there is little to distinguish Up Hatherley from Warden Hill to its east. As noted above, it expands north to take in the northern area of Up Hatherley parish, which reunites the small council estate previously split between this ward and Warden Hill. It also adds in the bottom end of Hatherley Road, which had somewhat anomalously been in Park up to now.
Throughout the noughties this was a classic marginal, with the Lib Dems gaining the final Tory seat by just 1 vote in 2010. Since then it has often voted Lib Dem by large margins, though there seems no intrinsic reason the Conservatives should have fallen out of contention. Regardless, this year of all years that doesn’t look likely to change.
Benhall, The Reddings & Fiddler’s Green The third ward of middle-class, post-war estates, both Benhall and The Reddings are mostly pretty similar to the wards immediately to its south, though The Reddings was only added to Cheltenham in 1991. Boundary changes add 900 or so voters from Fiddler’s Green, previously in Hesters Way. This is an area of new-build estates, demographically pretty similar to the rest of this ward. It also adds Harthurstfield Park, a development of park homes.
Benhall & The Reddings elected two Lib Dems in 2002, but the Conservatives gained a seat in 2004. The two sitting councillors, Nigel Britter and Jaqueline Fletcher, then held their seats, meaning the ward alternated which party won each election. Fletcher (the Conservative) was finally defeated in 2014, and the Lib Dems have held both seats since. The area added from Hesters Way must have been strong for the Tories going off results in the past couple of elections, though quite they have been doing better in Fiddler’s Green than Benhall or Hatherley is anyone’s guess. If and when the Tories recover in the town this ward should be competitive. This year that is hard to imagine.
Hesters Way Just like the three previous wards, Hesters Way is entirely a post-war creation, with estates from the 50s onwards. That’s where the similarities end, however. The ward is basically a massive council estate, or more accurately a series of estates and a plurality still rent socially. As you might expect, average educational levels are low and substantial numbers work in routine and semi-routine jobs. Boundary changes remove Fiddler’s Green, the only substantial area of non-social housing in the old ward, and are replaced by around 800 voters from a council estate in Springbank.
A rare area of Cheltenham which has had Labour councillors, albeit way back in the 1970s, Hesters Way has been won by the Lib Dems and predecessors every year since 1985. It has been one of the (relative) Tory success stories in recent years, closing the gap to just 100 votes in 2021, and not falling back horrifically in 2022 as elsewhere in the town. This has been put down to a ‘red wall’ effect, but my reading is that the close results are down mostly to energetic Conservative campaigns activating their vote in Fiddler’s Green, and the removal of that area is likely to put paid to their chances. One of the Lib Dem councillors defected to the Greens a couple of years ago and is defending her seat. She is long-serving, so never say never, but it doesn’t look likely to me that she will be able to hold, particularly in a ward with one of the more substantial boundary changes.
Springbank The last ward completely made up of post-war developments, Springbank is a mixed community, but certainly more similar to Hesters Way than areas like Benhall further south. Springbank itself, in the south of the ward, is mostly rather downmarket private housing, home to significant numbers of retirees and ‘intermediate’ workers, while Arle in the north (half of which is in this ward) is a large council estate, with the demographics which tend to come along with that. Boundary changes remove a chunk of council housing in the middle of the ward, added to Hesters Way, and this is made up for with the area lost by Swindon Village, which is similar in character to Springbank.
What was apparently an extremely strong Conservative performance in the 2019 general election has not carried across to the council level. Lib Dem majorities have never fallen below 19%, and in 2022 reached a dizzying 63%.
St Mark’s Probably ⅔ of voters in St Mark’s live on the 1950s council estates of Rowanfield and Hesters Way, with demographics similar to the ward of the same name, but a substantial minority of the ward is made up of relatively pleasant private developments. Even here though levels of outright home ownership, managerial workers and education are relatively low, with a social profile more similar to wards like Up Hatherley than somewhere like Leckhampton. Miniscule boundary changes don’t affect any electors.
St Mark’s has voted Lib Dem at every election since 1979, and often by very large margins. There is no indication that things are about to change.
St Peter’s Split in two by the railway line and the Cheltenham trade park, this is a socially mixed ward. The third or so to the west is a mix of council estates and 20th century private developments, with characteristics similar to those seen in St Mark’s. The two thirds of St Peter’s to the east, however, is much more like the other wards close to the town centre, with a higher social profile but large numbers of private renters. The boundary changes remove around 500 voters, mostly private renters, in the town centre, which are added to Lansdown.
Often a marginal in the 1980s and 90s, the current(ish) ward has been Lib Dem held since its creation in 1992, but sometimes only just: 36 votes in 2002 and 13 in 2006. The Greens targeted it in the late 2010s, bringing it back towards being competitive, but they now appear to have given up and the ward looks as safely Lib Dem as others in the west of the town.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 22, 2024 18:36:28 GMT
Wow - end of an era in Prestbury. They will get their first ever party councillor.Other things to note based on a quick scan: LD to Green defector Wendy Flynn is somewhat surprisingly defending her seat in Hesters Way. LD councillor in St Paul's is moving ward. Indy Daud McDonald is back for another go in St Paul's. Who would you expect to benefit from that? Bureaucracy
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 22, 2024 18:41:44 GMT
For the purposes of a spreadsheet I am building to approximate total local election votes in certain constituencies, I have allocated the Cheltenham Borough wards as follows:
Tewkesbury: Prestbury, Springbank, Swindon Willage Cheltenham: All the other 17 wards.
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Post by carolus on May 3, 2024 11:31:25 GMT
LD win both in Hesters Way
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 3, 2024 11:33:38 GMT
LD win both in Hesters Way
A better result than I was expecting for the Greens, but good to regain the defector’s seat.
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Post by carolus on May 3, 2024 12:10:19 GMT
Oakley - 2 LD Springbank - 2 LD Swindon Village - 2 LD
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 3, 2024 12:28:43 GMT
Lib Dems win both in Battledown. A couple of other chances, but we could be looking at a Tory wipeout.
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on May 3, 2024 12:33:28 GMT
Lib Dems win both in Battledown. A couple of other chances, but we could be looking at a Tory wipeout. Thought if any Tory was going to hang on it would be Matt Babbage. If he's lost I'll be surprised if any of the others manage to survive.
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