European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 30, 2024 10:45:25 GMT
My letter confirming that I have been appointed to attend the count arrived today as well
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 30, 2024 10:56:13 GMT
Yesterday had large A3 Labour leaflet.
Best I've seen anywhere apart from our own, no stupid union jacks, lots of endorsements, very impressive big street map of the ward with every noted problem (potholes, dogshit etc) marked - whatever you think of Pointing At Potholes, it demonstrates an in-depth knowledge of the ward and willingness to literally get out and identify problems.
Couple of quite fierce digs at the Green Party, unjustified in my view (especially the claim that "Greens & Conservatives have led and failed in the council" when quite clearly there has been virtually no change in council policy or performance since Labour dropped out of the Co-Operative Alliance; cannier readers might ask themselves just why Labour did drop out of the Alliance; but TBF the Greens pretty much asked for it by trying to claim credit for everything the Alliance has ever done including the 6 years it was Labour led.
Momentary shock when a blue leaflet dropped through the door but turned out to be from the Indy PCC candidate, who appears be what students of politics refer to as A Fucking Nutter.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Stroud
Apr 30, 2024 11:21:04 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Apr 30, 2024 11:21:04 GMT
I'm casting a proxy vote on behalf of my younger sibling, who diligently went and researched the candidates for PCC (which to be honest is more than I bothered to do). They described him as a "crazy anti-5G guy".
Stroud (town) Labour and the Greens obviously have, uh, history. One of the Green candidates in Dursley (partner of the one they're actually campaigning for) has been a bit aggressive on social media
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Stroud
Apr 30, 2024 12:01:47 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Apr 30, 2024 12:01:47 GMT
The Tories have delivered us a local election leaflet telling us all about their candidates for Dursley ward. Problem is I live in Cam. And not even that close to the border Surely you have already decided to vote Labour? So this is a matter of zero consequence to you and alters nothing. It ought to be pleasing to see that a minion has fouled up for them? But it happens to every party every year in dozens of places. Calm down and save your irony for the big results.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 30, 2024 12:18:21 GMT
The Tories have delivered us a local election leaflet telling us all about their candidates for Dursley ward. Problem is I live in Cam. And not even that close to the border Surely you have already decided to vote Labour? So this is a matter of zero consequence to you and alters nothing. It ought to be pleasing to see that a minion has fouled up for them? But it happens to every party every year in dozens of places. Calm down and save your irony for the big results. It's trivial in itself of course, but what EL and I are noting is that in a District where the Conservatives are the largest party, got 43% vote share in last election and have the incumbent MP (who in normal circs they should be busting a gut to defend, since it's a marginal seat with unhelpful boundary changes) the Tory campaign is virtually invisible, and when it does show up, incompetent. It's not that they made a tiny error, it's that in the entire campaign they've literally not done anything right, albeit largely because they've done done anything, period.
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Post by batman on Apr 30, 2024 12:20:50 GMT
Some decades ago there was a by-election in the Margravine ward of the London Borough of Hammersmith & Fulham. A group of enthusiastic Lib Dem campaigners came up all the way from Portsmouth on the train to canvass. They were then sent to the wrong ward, one where there was no election taking place, canvassed there for the non-existent election & then returned to Portsmouth.
The Labour Party easily retained Margravine ward in the election.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 30, 2024 12:28:38 GMT
The Tories have delivered us a local election leaflet telling us all about their candidates for Dursley ward. Problem is I live in Cam. And not even that close to the border Surely you have already decided to vote Labour? So this is a matter of zero consequence to you and alters nothing. It ought to be pleasing to see that a minion has fouled up for them? But it happens to every party every year in dozens of places. Calm down and save your irony for the big results. In this case minion may not be the right term - we know that in many contests the Tories are making more use of paid deliverers, and they're more likely to be involved in these errors because they have no incentive to report such a mistake and less likelihood of knowing, because they're less interested in the material than an activist would be.
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Stroud
Apr 30, 2024 12:55:37 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Apr 30, 2024 12:55:37 GMT
Surely you have already decided to vote Labour? So this is a matter of zero consequence to you and alters nothing. It ought to be pleasing to see that a minion has fouled up for them? But it happens to every party every year in dozens of places. Calm down and save your irony for the big results. It's trivial in itself of course, but what EL and I are noting is that in a District where the Conservatives are the largest party, got 43% vote share in last election and have the incumbent MP (who in normal circs they should be busting a gut to defend, since it's a marginal seat with unhelpful boundary changes) the Tory campaign is virtually invisible, and when it does show up, incompetent. It's not that they made a tiny error, it's that in the entire campaign they've literally not done anything right, albeit largely because they've done done anything, period. Well, how very satisfactory and pleasing that must be for you? Surely you don't want to see them improve?
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 30, 2024 13:05:55 GMT
It is an interesting insight into the local campaign and situation. I highly doubt that we are the only house that got that leaflet, and it does not look good to leaflet the wrong ward, especially as the Cam/Dursley difference is an important one to some people. It is not indicative of a particularly brilliant campaign
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
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Stroud
Apr 30, 2024 22:44:48 GMT
Post by maxque on Apr 30, 2024 22:44:48 GMT
And the ones where nobody answers the front door because anybody who knows them would have gone round the back instead. Or the front door is locked, bolted and nailed shut with a cupboard against it because it was last used in 1954. Extremely common where I live. The front door leads to the middle of the living room (often behind the TV stand), everyone uses the side door (I've also seen front doors being 1 foot off the ground, floating into a wall with no surface until the ground on the outside side).
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Stroud
May 1, 2024 10:12:06 GMT
Post by gwynthegriff on May 1, 2024 10:12:06 GMT
I had strict instructions for delivery to one of my parish councillors.
"Ignore the front door. Use the side gate and leave anything propped against the kitchen window. Ignore the dogs; they're fine. But don't go after dark. That's when they let the other dogs out. And ignore the fact that it's directly under a House Martin nest; they'll just wipe that off."
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on May 1, 2024 23:03:59 GMT
Final wild stab in the dark predictions SOUTH COTSWOLDS Kingswood: 1x LD
NORTH COTSWOLDS Hardwicke: 3x Con - very small chance of one Lab Painswick & Upton: 3x Grn - 1 Green is certain, the other two very likely, but Cons might hold on Bisley: 1x Grn - a Con gain from Grn anywhere would be a real shock Minchinhampton: 2x Grn - 1 absolutely certain, the other all but.
Stroud Town: Central: 1x Lab - let's see how much David Drew's name still counts for Farmhill & Paganhill: 1x Lab - our campaign has picked up and should gain this easily Slade: 1x Grn - Lab may hold on but to be honest was a surprise gain last time Trinity: 1x Grn - very safe Uplands: 1x Lab - our strongest Stroud ward Valley: 1x Grn - think we'll come up short
Outer Stroud Cainscross: 3x Lab - I've seen absolutely nothing to suggest it won't return to its previous safe Labour status RWR: 1x Grn - very safe Rodborough: 1x Lab; 1x CI - our campaign has picked up. Probably not by enough Stonehouse: 3x Lab - Housden may hold on. Third seat is extremely difficult to call Thrupp: 1x Grn - very safe
Outer Cotswolds Amberley & Woodchester - 1x Lab - no idea what's going to happen here, I'm assuming incumbency will do it Chalford: 3x Grn - despite the partial slates last time Labour were clearly behind the Greens. The elected Labour cllr defends as a Green Nailsworth: 3x Lab - Essentially the opposite of Chalford The Stanleys: 1xCon; 1x Grn - difficult to look past the incumbents
Severn Vale: Severn: 2x Con - a change from my previous prediction, we've worked it hard but I've seen the canvassing data Berkeley Vale: 3x Con - never really got going here but in the current environment the third seat is really a tossup
The Heart, Soul, and Centre of Stroud District and Constituency: Cam & Dursley, now including Wotton Cam East: 1xCon; 1x Lab - my home ward. I'm confident, but cllr Tipper will be hard to beat Cam West: 2x Lab - in the current national environment should be Lab and I haven't picked up anything to change that Dursley: 2x Lab, 1x Grn - really hard to call the third seat. Danae's support not picked up in canvassing, but definitely there. Could end up 3x Lab but could also be 1 each of Lab, Con, Grn Wotton-Under-Edge: 2xLD; 1xGrn - this is a bloody mess but I suspect no change is likely. Labour will improve our vote but unlikely to challenge for a seat
Ranges: Con: 5-14 - expect around 9 Lab: 11-24 - expect somewhere around 15 Grn: 10-18 - expect around 15 LD: 2-3 - expect 3 CI: 0-1 - expect 1
The large Con and Lab ranges are because largely Cam and Dursley could potentially be almost anything from 5 Con 1 Lab (+1 Green) to 7 Lab, and because Labour and Greens could both potentially 5/6 in Stroud town (I don't think any of these extremes are likely; but they are possible). Even "safe" seats here need to be fought for and if you get it wrong.....
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Stroud
May 2, 2024 7:10:38 GMT
Post by European Lefty on May 2, 2024 7:10:38 GMT
Weather is truly abysmal here in Cam, though due to get better through the day apparently
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,370
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Stroud
May 2, 2024 8:01:33 GMT
Post by YL on May 2, 2024 8:01:33 GMT
Nailsworth: 3x Lab - Essentially the opposite of Nailsworth I presume you meant something else here.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Stroud
May 2, 2024 8:40:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by Tony Otim on May 2, 2024 8:40:39 GMT
I was trying to work out why European Lefty expected around figures felt vaguely disappointing for almost everyone, then I noticed that they add up to 8 seats short of the total...
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on May 2, 2024 10:00:28 GMT
Hence the "somewhere around". Stroud/Stonehouse/cainscross are really hard to call from this end of the district
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Stroud
May 3, 2024 1:55:34 GMT
Post by mellowyellow on May 3, 2024 1:55:34 GMT
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Stroud
May 3, 2024 1:57:18 GMT
Post by mellowyellow on May 3, 2024 1:57:18 GMT
I can only speak for the v South of the District. Kingswood looks safe for LDs. I'd expect a bigger majority.
WuE I'm not sure - I live in that ward, and gut says 2x Greens, 1 x (the excellent Linda Cohen) LD
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Stroud
May 3, 2024 7:33:27 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 3, 2024 7:33:27 GMT
I can only speak for the v South of the District. Kingswood looks safe for LDs. I'd expect a bigger majority. WuE I'm not sure - I live in that ward, and gut says 2x Greens, 1 x (the excellent Linda Cohen) LD 3rd place in WuE is the big question for us locally. The edge might come down to North Nibley and Stinchcombe, where I expect the Tory vote to collapse and Lisa Carr has strong recognition. Kingswood is a walk in the park, our candidate is stronger than the one who got 59% last time and there's no significant opposition.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,826
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Stroud
May 4, 2024 8:32:05 GMT
Post by Harry Hayfield on May 4, 2024 8:32:05 GMT
Stroud will start counting at 10.00am and once again it is the media having to report the results rather than the actual council www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/live-stroud-district-council-local-9264718#1530692 but whilst going through the candidates list I was struck by the name of a Conservative candidate in the Chalford ward, namely Gail Ann Fearnley-Whittingstall and was pondering any relation to the Green party member Hugh, famed for his River Cottage series of television programmes and books
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