Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 7, 2024 22:26:12 GMT
In Pennies from Heaven, Arthur and his doppelgänger the Accordion Man first meet each other in Gloucester, which is also the location of the music shop that Arthur tries to flog sheet music for popular songs to.
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 8, 2024 5:20:55 GMT
In Pennies from Heaven, Arthur and his doppelgänger the Accordion Man first meet each other in Gloucester, which is also the location of the music shop that Arthur tries to flog sheet music for popular songs to. I always forget that Potter is from the Forest. Let's face it the most famous people from Gloucester over the last 40 years are Fred and Rose West.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 8, 2024 6:03:41 GMT
Gloucester has a peculiar place in the imagination. The second most famous person associated with it is the presumably fictional Dr Foster, whose experience cannot be described as positive: Doctor Foster went to Gloucester, In a shower of rain; He stepped in a puddle, Right up to his middle, And never went there again. Dr Foster is supposedly King Edward I, who experienced a fall from his horse, when in Gloucester. Some water may have been involved where he landed, he subsequently refused to return. Just goes to prove England has a long and cherished history of pot holes.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 8, 2024 9:05:39 GMT
Arguably it is partly due to demographic change caused by middle class voters priced out of Cheltenham moving to the nicer parts of Gloucester although poor organisation is also clearly to blame, which is why the Liberal Democrat vote in the Gloucester constituency has over the last 3 parliamentary elections held up better than most in places of this type cf. Lincoln. But the LD vote isn't "holding up" here, it is displacing Labour (at local level.) The local LDs generally have their tails up there but the shambolic nature of Labour for some years now puzzles me - judging by the SOPN in Barton & Tredworth I can only assume some factional infighting, possibly post-Corbyn purges or similar. Could it possibly be a tactical decision? If you take the view that the LibDem defector will not just be easily re-elected but has some coat tails as well, this may be an attempt to maximise the chances of Labour maintaining a presence in order to rebuild later. It may be worth pointing out, given the above discussion, that Labour candidate numbers are well up on 2021 despite this.
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 9:13:33 GMT
But the LD vote isn't "holding up" here, it is displacing Labour (at local level.) The local LDs generally have their tails up there but the shambolic nature of Labour for some years now puzzles me - judging by the SOPN in Barton & Tredworth I can only assume some factional infighting, possibly post-Corbyn purges or similar. Could it possibly be a tactical decision? If you take the view that the LibDem defector will not just be easily re-elected but has some coat tails as well, this may be an attempt to maximise the chances of Labour maintaining a presence in order to rebuild later. It may be worth pointing out, given the above discussion, that Labour candidate numbers are well up on 2021 despite this. Bhaimia is popular, but it will be a fight for him to get re-elected himself without worrying about coat tails. Labour have a long history of incompetence in Gloucester, and Occam's razor indicates we should look no further than that explanation.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 8, 2024 9:19:09 GMT
Let's face it the most famous people from Gloucester over the last 40 years are Fred and Rose West. Well the discussion was sort of skirting around that without actually mentioning it There is an argument that somehow created a long term malaise around the city.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 8, 2024 9:38:41 GMT
Where does Beatrix Potter's Tailor of Gloucester fit into this? From a musical POV, Gloucester was the city where Vaughan Williams' Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis was first performed at the Three Choirs Festival, and it was also the city of origin of the ill-fated composer and poet Ivor Gurney. There must, however, be numerous eminent rugby players with an association with the city, which remains one of the places where the rugby union code is the pre-eminent form of football. It has numerous important historic connections, but chances are most people don't associate them with the city. Aethelflaed, Lady of the Mercians (daughter of King Alfred and herself conqueror of the Mercian Danelaw) is buried there Domesday Book was presented to William the Conqueror in Gloucester Abbey (as it was before the Reformation) Robert Duke of Normandy, eldest son of William and claimant to the throne of England, is buried in the Abbey Henry III was crowned there - only king of England crowned outside of Westminster Abbey (under French occupation at the time) Lady Jane Grey was proclaimed Queen from the balcony of the New Inn (which, naturally, is one of the oldest pub buildings in the city, and perhaps the best preserved galleried courtyard inns in the country: the beer was bloody lousy whenever I've been in it, though.) Not to mention Robert Raikes, founder of the Sunday School movement. It was also probably the capital of the Roman province of Britannia Secunda in the late fourth century, and the usurper emperor Alectus is believed to have founded a mint there
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 26, 2024 9:28:32 GMT
A brief ward by ward overview. Bear in mind that Labour have done terribly here locally for the last 20 years, so, for example, what I have described as an historic marginal would be a ward which a halfway-competent local party should really be winning in an even year.
Abbeydale Generally the safest Conservative bit of Gloucester, Abbeydale, and Abbey before it, has traditionally had Labour as the closest (but very distant) challenger. One of the sitting councillors recently defected to the Lib Dems and is restanding, but I’d be surprised if there is a serious challenging campaign from either opposition party.
Abbeymead Also safely Conservative, Abbeydale includes a chunk of the pretty safely Lib Dem pre-2016 Hucclecote, and, as such, the Lib Dems have provided the distant competition here. However, I believe the Lib Dems are actually campaigning here this time, though they will only challenge in the event of a Tory meltdown.
Barnwood A Lib Dem-Tory marginal, with boundary changes back in 2016 favouring the Conservatives and removing the possibility of any theoretical Labour challenge. However, the Lib Dems narrowly won both seats last time and in the context of this year it is hard to see that changing.
Barton & Tredworth The home of Gloucester’s Muslim (mostly, though by no means completely, Gujarati) community, who make up around a third of the population but have an outsized electoral impact. In common with many wards of that nature around the country, Barton & Tredworth is usually Labour-voting, but more than capable of electing the right candidate from any party. Two of those candidates, Sajid Patel (Conservative) and Usman Bhaimia (Lib Dem turned Labour turned back to Lib Dem over 20 years) are sitting councillors and will fancy their chances of re-election. That is particularly true because Labour have contrived to stand only a single candidate, despite the national polls providing a fantastic chance to sweep out some popular opponents. That single candidate is running an active campaign however, so could get in. The non-Bhaimia Lib Dems appear to be paper candidates, so Sajid Patel should be all but guaranteed re-election as the top Tory. The other two spots will probably be fought between Bhaimia, the Labour candidate and the second sitting Conservative councillor, Shamsuz Zahman (newly elected last time, I have no idea of his popularity).
Coney Hill Previously the most anti-Tory area of Barnwood, Coney Hill got its own single-member ward in 2016, when Labour narrowly defeated the Lib Dems. The Tories surprisingly won from third last time out, but will surely be defeated this year. I don’t think the Lib Dems are trying (it was never a natural fit, but had the history of being in a Tory-LD marginal) so Labour should gain easily enough.
Elmbridge Not always safely, but certainly reliably Lib Dem. I’d guess the Conservatives might have gained it if it had been up for election in 2015, but in reality it has never been lost. The lack of Labour candidates this time confirms the Lib Dem hold.
Grange Generally close but with a clear Conservative lean, Labour have only managed to get over the line here in 2002 and 2012. This has probably been one of Labour’s better-performing wards in the city based on demographics (which are still by no means terrible for them), but that is not saying a great deal. Labour should be winning here if they are to make any real progress across the city.
Hucclecote A safe Lib Dem ward only lost to the Conservatives in the meltdown of 2015, and on the current boundaries it might even have been held in that disaster (probably not quite). Hucclecote will remain securely in the Lib Dem column.
Kingsholm & Wotton A Lib Dem stronghold, even held comfortably (albeit over split opposition) in 2015, there isn’t going to be any change here. Given the demographics I think Labour must win it nationally, but I see no prospect of a local challenge, certainly so long as Jeremy Hilton sticks around.
Kingsway Built on the former RAF Quedgeley in the mid-noughties with large numbers of social rented properties, the Kingsway development was largely responsible for the decreasing safety of the old Quedgeley Fieldcourt, and got its own ward in 2016. It has voted Tory in both elections since, but Labour remained relatively close even in 2021, and should be looking to gain both seats this time.
Longlevens Normally a semi-marginal Conservative ward, the Lib Dems have occasionally won Longlevens, and currently hold 2 of the 3 seats following a by-election in late 2021. You’d expect the Lib Dems to complete the set this year but for the fact that the remaining Tory councillor is the very popular Kathy Williams, who is currently serving as mayor. The lack of Labour candidates won’t help, but it would be a brave person who’d bet against her holding on.
Matson, Robinswood & White City Almost always safely Labour, the Tories had only won here in 2003 prior to 2021, when they took all 3 seats. This should be a simple enough regain, but things are complicated by the fact that two of the Conservative councillors have become Independent and are restanding. I have no idea whether either has a chance at re-election, though anything other than a full set will be a big disappointment for Labour.
Moreland Generally safely Labour despite sometimes close results, this had only been lost in 2009 (the county division had identical boundaries) before the Conservatives gained 1 of the 3 seats in 2021. The sitting Tory, Lyn Ackroyd, is popular in the area, but that should really be irrelevant given the national situation. A Labour failure to gain here would be a bit of a disaster.
Podsmead The fact that this ward was ever lost tells you all you need to know about the competence of Gloucester Labour, but it has generally acted as a Lab-Con marginal in recent years. That is until a 2019 by-election when the Lib Dems gained it from nowhere, 3 votes ahead of the Tories and again narrowly held it in 2021 with Labour a poor third. I have to imagine that this year it will be a competition between the Lib Dems and Labour, and it could be another close race.
Quedgeley Fieldcourt Whilst by no means devoid of Labour potential, Quedgeley Fieldcourt has nonetheless never come especially close to electing a Labour councillor. The 2016 boundary changes made this safer for the Conservatives, and I find it tough to see a challenge this year - though in a total meltdown it wouldn’t be completely safe.
Quedgeley Severn Vale A ward similar in both character and electoral trajectory to Quedgeley Fieldcourt; that changed in 2011 with a surprise gain by Lib Dem candidate Anna Mozol. She was comfortably defeated in 2015 and came just 16 vote short of regaining her seat in 2016. In 2021 she stood as an Independent and performed creditably, probably costing her old party a seat (this time the margin was 28 votes). With Mozol standing again as an Indy, and an additional Labour challenge, the Lib Dems will have a tough fight to gain this low hanging fruit from the Conservatives.
Tuffley A Conservative-leaning marginal, Tuffley’s often been fairly close but Labour last managed to get over the top here back in 2002. This was the site of maybe Gloucester Labour’s biggest humiliation in recent years (up against stiff competition) when, just a couple of weeks after Liz Truss’s mini-budget, they contrived to fall to third in a by-election; the Conservatives holding off the previously uncompetitive Lib Dems by 15 votes. I believe the Lib Dems have continued to work the ward, at least to some extent, so this could fall in any direction.
Westgate A Lib Dem-Conservative marginal through the noughties, Westgate became safely Conservative during the coalition years. Recently the Lib Dems have come back into contention, and comfortably won a by-election in 2023. Labour have never challenged, but generally poll respectably and must do okay in general elections these days. The Lib Dems will be gunning for all 3 seats, but few would bet against super-popular incumbent-Conservative Pam Tracey holding on, even in a total Tory meltdown across the city.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 26, 2024 10:36:04 GMT
A brief ward by ward overview. Bear in mind that Labour have done terribly here locally for the last 20 years, so, for example, what I have described as an historic marginal would be a ward which a halfway-competent local party should really be winning in an even year. AbbeydaleGenerally the safest Conservative bit of Gloucester, Abbeydale, and Abbey before it, has traditionally had Labour as the closest (but very distant) challenger. One of the sitting councillors recently defected to the Lib Dems and is restanding, but I’d be surprised if there is a serious challenging campaign from either opposition party. AbbeymeadAlso safely Conservative, Abbeydale includes a chunk of the pretty safely Lib Dem pre-2016 Hucclecote, and, as such, the Lib Dems have provided the distant competition here. However, I believe the Lib Dems are actually campaigning here this time, though they will only challenge in the even of a Tory meltdown. Barnwood
A Lib Dem-Tory marginal, with boundary changes back in 2016 favouring the Conservatives and removing the possibility of any theoretical Labour challenge. However, the Lib Dems narrowly won both seats last time and in the context of this year it is hard to see that changing. Barton & Tredworth
The home of Gloucester’s Muslim (mostly, though by no means completely, Gujarati) community, who make up around a third of the population but have an outsized electoral impact. In common with many wards of that nature around the country, Barton & Tredworth is usually Labour-voting, but more than capable of electing the right candidate from any party. Two of those candidates, Sajid Patel (Conservative) and Usman Bhaimia (Lib Dem turned Labour turned back to Lib Dem over 20 years) are sitting councillors and will fancy their chances of re-election. That is particularly true because Labour have contrived to stand only a single candidate, despite the national polls providing a fantastic chance to sweep out some popular opponents. That single candidate is running an active campaign however, so could get in. The non-Bhaimia Lib Dems appear to be paper candidates, so Sajid Patel should be all but guaranteed re-election as the top Tory. The other two spots will probably be fought between Bhaimia, the Labour candidate and the second sitting Conservative councillor, Shamsuz Zahman (newly elected last time, I have no idea of his popularity). Coney Hill
Previously the most anti-Tory area of Barnwood, Coney Hill got its own single-member ward in 2016, when Labour narrowly defeated the Lib Dems. The Tories surprisingly won from third last time out, but will surely be defeated this year. I don’t think the Lib Dems are trying (it was never a natural fit, but had the history of being in a Tory-LD marginal) so Labour should gain easily enough. Elmbridge
Not always safely, but certainly reliably Lib Dem. I’d guess the Conservatives might have gained it if it had been up for election in 2015, but in reality it has never been lost. The lack of Labour candidates this time confirms the Lib Dem hold. GrangeGenerally close but with a clear Conservative lean, Labour have only managed to get over the line here in 2002 and 2012. This has probably been one of Labour’s better-performing wards in the city based on demographics (which are still by no means terrible for them), but that is not saying a great deal. Labour should be winning here if they are to make any real progress across the city. Hucclecote
A safe Lib Dem ward only lost to the Conservatives in the meltdown of 2015, and on the current boundaries it might even have been held in that disaster (probably not quite). Hucclecote will remain securely in the Lib Dem column. Kingsholm & Wotton
A Lib Dem stronghold, even held comfortably (albeit over split opposition) in 2015, there isn’t going to be any change here. Given the demographics I think Labour must win it nationally, but I see no prospect of a local challenge, certainly so long as Jeremy Hilton sticks around. KingswayBuilt on the former RAF Quedgeley in the mid-noughties with large numbers of social rented properties, the Kingsway development was largely responsible for the decreasing safety of the old Quedgeley Fieldcourt, and got its own ward in 2016. It has voted Tory in both elections since, but Labour remained relatively close even in 2021, and should be looking to gain both seats this time. LonglevensNormally a semi-marginal Conservative ward, the Lib Dems have occasionally won Longlevens, and currently hold 2 of the 3 seats following a by-election in late 2021. You’d expect the Lib Dems to complete the set this year but for the fact that the remaining Tory councillor is the very popular Kathy Williams, who is currently serving as mayor. The lack of Labour candidates won’t help, but it would be a brave person who’d bet against her holding on. Matson, Robinswood & White City
Almost always safely Labour, the Tories had only won here in 2003 prior to 2021, when they took all 3 seats. This should be a simple enough regain, but things are complicated by the fact that two of the Conservative councillors have become Independent and are restanding. I have no idea whether either has a chance at re-election, though anything other than a full set will be a big disappointment for Labour. MorelandGenerally safely Labour despite sometimes close results, this had only been lost in 2009 (the county division had identical boundaries) before the Conservatives gained 1 of the 3 seats in 2021. The sitting Tory, Lyn Ackroyd, is popular in the area, but that should really be irrelevant given the national situation. A Labour failure to gain here would be a bit of a disaster. PodsmeadThe fact that this ward was ever lost tells you all you need to know about the competence of Gloucester Labour, but it has generally acted as a Lab-Con marginal in recent years. That is until a 2019 by-election when the Lib Dems gained it from nowhere, 3 votes ahead of the Tories and again narrowly held it in 2021 with Labour a poor third. I have to imagine that this year it will be a competition between the Lib Dems and Labour, and it could be another close race. Quedgeley Fieldcourt
Whilst by no means devoid of Labour potential, Quedgeley Fieldcourt has nonetheless never come especially close to electing a Labour councillor. The 2016 boundary changes made this safer for the Conservatives, and I find it tough to see a challenge this year - though in a total meltdown it wouldn’t be completely safe. Quedgeley Severn Vale
A ward similar in both character and electoral trajectory to Quedgeley Fieldcourt; that changed in 2011 with a surprise gain by Lib Dem candidate Anna Mozol. She was comfortably defeated in 2015 and came just 16 vote short of regaining her seat in 2016. In 2021 she stood as an Independent and performed creditably, probably costing her old party a seat (this time the margin was 28 votes). With Mozol standing again as an Indy, and an additional Labour challenge, the Lib Dems will have a tough fight to gain this low hanging fruit from the Conservatives. TuffleyA Conservative-leaning marginal, Tuffley’s often been fairly close but Labour last managed to get over the top here back in 2002. This was the site of maybe Gloucester Labour’s biggest humiliation in recent years (up against stiff competition) when, just a couple of weeks after Liz Truss’s mini-budget, they contrived to fall to third in a by-election; the Conservatives holding off the previously uncompetitive Lib Dems by 15 votes. I believe the Lib Dems have continued to work the ward, at least to some extent, so this could fall in any direction. Westgate
A Lib Dem-Conservative marginal through the noughties, Westgate became safely Conservative during the coalition years. Recently the Lib Dems have come back into contention, and comfortably won a by-election in 2023. Labour have never challenged, but generally poll respectably and must do okay in general elections these days. The Lib Dems will be gunning for all 3 seats, but few would bet against super-popular incumbent-Conservative Pam Tracey holding on, even in a total Tory meltdown across the city. Fascinating! Reminds me when I joined Labour in late 1977 - Bernard Gale was a Bucks County Councillor but in the late 60's he managed to win for the Westgate ward in Gloucester. It's a Tory stronghold! As for Labour, the votes are appalling - what is the problem? I noticed that the Socialist Labour Party have 6 candidates, the people are Muslim candidates and the issues are likely about Palestine
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batman
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Post by batman on Apr 26, 2024 21:36:57 GMT
Well at least we're consistent in our underperformance here, especially in local elections. Who knows, maybe one day it might change.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 26, 2024 21:50:14 GMT
I actually think you're being too generous to us Iain
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 26, 2024 23:04:06 GMT
I actually think you're being too generous to us Iain My temptation was to be far more scathing, but a) I think that was sort of covered in my opening post on this thread, and b) I don’t want to discount Labour given the national circumstances. So far as I can tell the local CLP is as useless as ever, but in circumstances such as these that can sometimes be brushed aside. A random example which springs to mind for some reason is Kevin Lancaster, ex-Tory councillor for Sedbergh & Kirkby Lonsdale in Cumbria. He was clearly popular, and consistently got elected even in tough years. Then, in 2022, he was beaten almost 2 to 1 by the Lib Dems. That kind of scenario is not what I’m expecting with Gloucester Labour, but it can’t be discounted. In normal times I’d probably predict 8-10 seats for Labour, but it’s entirely possible that national circumstances will overcome local uselessness.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 27, 2024 9:13:15 GMT
Using those predictions and assigning the toss ups one way or another, my maths end up with this being something like
LD 15 (+1) Con 14 (-7) Lab 10 (+8) Ind 0 (-2)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 27, 2024 11:06:41 GMT
Those are exactly the figures on my prediction spreadsheet
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 28, 2024 10:18:48 GMT
Fine summary by iain. I would only add that the incumbent LD in Podsmead is a very good campaigner (it's not for nothing that he won it from 3rd place by three votes) and while it remains a three-way marginal I would say that, with the Tories being where they are and the CLP being where it is, I will be very disappointed if he is not returned this time out with maybe an increased majority.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:36:41 GMT
If those are the ballpark likely figures, it must be at least possible that a really disastrous night for the Tories could see them pushed into third?
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Post by andrewp on Apr 28, 2024 12:33:22 GMT
If those are the ballpark likely figures, it must be at least possible that a really disastrous night for the Tories could see them pushed into third? It’s certainly possible. They were third in number of seats from 1995-99. Some might think they really ought to be third this time if Gloucester Labour can get it’s act together.
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iain
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Post by iain on May 3, 2024 18:28:53 GMT
First results are two Lib Dem holds in Elmbridge and two Conservative holds in Quedgeley Fieldcourt.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on May 3, 2024 18:32:22 GMT
Finishing 3rd behind labour in Quedgeley and only just avoiding it city wide for the PCC might worry the LDs a little
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iain
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Post by iain on May 3, 2024 18:35:21 GMT
Finishing 3rd behind labour in Quedgeley and only just avoiding it city wide for the PCC might worry the LDs a little I don't think either of those things will be remotely worrying. This is Fieldcourt, not Severn Vale.
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