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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:12:33 GMT
West Oxfordshire
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Post by carolus on Oct 29, 2023 10:39:51 GMT
Current council: 17 LD, 16 Con, 11 Lab, 3 Green, 1 Ind, 1 Ind Group Up in 2024: 7 Con, 4 Lab, 3 LD, 2 Ind, 1 Green
The Inds in North Leigh (2024), and Freeland & Hanborough (2024) were elected as Con. The Lab in Stonesfield & Tackley (2024) was elected as LD.
Split wards (up in 2024): Freeland & Hanborough - 1 Ind (ex-Con), 1 LD. Ind (ex-Con) defend. 2022: LD gain from Lab by 7.6% over Con. Standlake, Aston & Stanton Harcourt - 1 Con, 1 LD. Con defend. 2022: LD gain from Con by 16%. Stonesfield & Tackley - 1 Lab (ex-LD), 1 LD. Lab (ex-LD) defend. 2023: LD hold by 12.6% over Con. Witney South - 2 Lab, 1 Con. Con defend. 2023: Lab hold by 2.3% over Con.
Close wards (up in 2024): Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield - 2023: Con hold by 5.1% over LD. Witney Central - 2023: Lab hold by 1.1% over Con. Witney East - 2023: Lab hold by 2.3% over Con.
There are some wards that have not elected since 2021: Chadlington & Churchill - 2021: Con hold by 12.8% over LD. Milton-under-Wychwood - 2021: Con hold by 36.4% over LD. North Leigh - 2021: Con hold by 44% over Lab.
2023 Candidate totals: 17 Con, 17 Lab, 14 LD, 12 Green, 2 Heritage, 4 Ind, 1 [] 2021 Candidate totals (+1): 18 Con, 18 Lab, 16 Green, 16 LD, 1 Burning Pink, 1 Reform UK, 2 Ind
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2023 11:28:49 GMT
It feels like a lifetime ago when the Tories fairly easily won the Witney by-election in 2016. The Lib Dems could, mathematically, take this council next May.
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Post by carolus on Oct 29, 2023 12:04:01 GMT
It feels like a lifetime ago when the Tories fairly easily won the Witney by-election in 2016. The Lib Dems could, mathematically, take this council next May. Mathematically yes, in that there are 17 seats up and only three (made a now-corrected mistake above) LD defences. But you could say the same about most parties with a reasonable group on most councils. However the Lib Dems would need 8 gains, and if you discount the three defences and the Chipping Norton (1) and Witney (5) seats where Labour are strong and there's no sign of LD strength, that means you'd need the LDs to gain all the remaining seats. If the national environment remains similar to now, I think there are five plausible ones (the various split and close wards from last year, and C&C which hasn't elected since 2021). The LDs didn't eveb stand in KRE last year, presumably in favour of the Greens, and unless that changes even wins from nowhere in the other 2021 wards wouldn't be enough. There are seats for the LDs to win in Carterton, but they aren't up this year, and of course by 2026 all sorts of things can change. The Tories could certianly be in for another bad time here though.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 29, 2023 12:51:07 GMT
Chadlington & Churchill is the ward of Clarkson and his farm.
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Post by batman on Oct 29, 2023 20:38:52 GMT
Interesting, I watched his episode of Who Do You Think You Are? and it seemed he was in Gloucestershire.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 29, 2023 20:45:20 GMT
He's part of the 'Chipping Norton set'. Also note the planning disputes over the farm shop and restaurant were with West Oxon.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 29, 2023 21:29:37 GMT
Essentially he/his scriptwriters chose to develop his land just within the AONB, rather than the larger slab of land just outside it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2023 13:38:50 GMT
Interesting, I watched his episode of Who Do You Think You Are? and it seemed he was in Gloucestershire. There's also Daylesford farm on the border of Gloucs and Oxon. I think Boris Johnson got food parcels from there during Covid.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Nov 5, 2023 0:22:45 GMT
Interesting, I watched his episode of Who Do You Think You Are? and it seemed he was in Gloucestershire. There's also Daylesford farm on the border of Gloucs and Oxon. I think Boris Johnson got food parcels from there during Covid. Daylesford is technically in Gloucestershire, though the infestation of Bamfords has spread across county lines.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 5, 2024 17:34:50 GMT
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 7, 2024 0:01:42 GMT
That seems an odd ward for the LDs to be missing
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 7, 2024 7:52:54 GMT
That seems an odd ward for the LDs to be missing They didn't contest it last year either. I would suspect a very limited deal with the Greens for the 2 wards either are missing?
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Apr 23, 2024 8:20:18 GMT
The husband of Liz Leffman (up for re-election in Charlbury) reports receiving a Tory leaflet….. promoting their candidate for Eynsham & Cassington. A neighbour of Liz’s reports receiving the leaflet jointly promoting the Tory candidates for Chipping Norton and Kingham, Rollright & Enstone.
Draw your own conclusions about the level of organisation of the Tory campaign…..
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 23, 2024 9:10:50 GMT
It's not even as though Charlbury, Eynsham and Chippy are actually that near to each other....
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Apr 23, 2024 20:28:57 GMT
For good measure, it seems that the Tories in Eynsham have been leafleting for their candidate in Charlbury.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 24, 2024 15:43:12 GMT
My grandmother in Eynsham has been canvassed by the LibDems (unsurprisingly) and Labour (slightly more surprisingly). Both apparently claiming that only they can beat the Tories in the new Bicester & Woodstock seat
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Apr 25, 2024 18:49:41 GMT
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Apr 25, 2024 20:18:36 GMT
My grandmother in Eynsham has been canvassed by the LibDems (unsurprisingly) and Labour (slightly more surprisingly). Both apparently claiming that only they can beat the Tories in the new Bicester & Woodstock seat There must be some farm of particularly potent magic mushrooms near Eynsham. The Labour candidate evidently knows where it is. The Tories took them before sending their leaflets to Royal Mail.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 26, 2024 20:20:34 GMT
For the purposes of approximating total local election votes across constituencies, I have allocated the wards here as follows:
Wards with elections -
Banbury: Chadlington & Churchill, Charlbury & Finstock, Chipping Norton, Kingham Enstone & Rollright
Bicester & Woodstock: Eynsham & Cassington, Freeland & Hanborough, North Leigh, Stonesfield & Tackley, Woodstock & Bladon
Witney: Hailey Minster Lovell & Leafield, Milton under Wychwood, Standlake Aston & Stanton Harcourt, Witney Central, Witney East, Witney North, Witney South, Witney West
Wards without elections -
Banbury: The Bartons
Witney: Alvescot & Filkins, Ascott & Shipton, Bampton & Calnfield, Brize Norton & Shilton, Burford, Carterton North East, Carterton North West, Carterton South, Ducklington
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