On first appearance, not much happened, but when you dig deeper...yeah, not much happened, but still some interesting tidbits.
No gains by anyone.
Composition remained unchanged - 11 Lib Dems, 11 Conservative, 10 Community Campaign Hart (CCH), 1 Independent. (17 for majority)
Near-equal split belies the council's stability - Lib Dems and CCH are in coalition and an electoral arrangement whereby they don't stand against each other.
The spoilers proved to be Labour and the Greens, standing more candidates this year than in many past. CCH nearly lost Fleet West to the Tories, and had their majority slashed hard in Crookham West & Ewshot.
Lib Dem targets
Even in spite of the Labour and Green presence, the Lib Dems increased their majority in Fleet East in 2023. The Tories require a 10.32% swing to retain their lone remaining seat, a tall order and the Lib Dems will be hopeful of sweeping the ward.
Hook is a tricky one to judge, as the contest in 2023 was between an incumbent Independent and the Conservatives (Labour as a spoiler). The Lib Dems did not stand, but in 2022 they required a 3.29% swing to win against the incumbent Tories. Had that been repeated in 2023, perhaps an increased Labour vote would have spoiled their chances, but maybe 2024 will be different?
Tories require a 4.71% swing to gain Crookham West & Ewshot from CCH. With the Greens and Labour gaining just under 20% of the vote, this seat went from semi-safe to marginal.
Tories require a 1.84% swing to retain their lone remaining seat in Fleet West against CCH. If polls improve whilst Labour and the Greens remain spoilers, quite possible. In 2019, CCH had a 26.11% majority so they've really fallen back, though that was an odd year for what is traditionally a marginal.
Tories require a 3.29% swing to retain their lone remaining seat in Fleet Central against CCH. Unlike Fleet West, there is a history here of spoilers (Labour and one Howling Laud Hope of the OMRLP). As before, CCH had a very strong performance in 2019 but the seat has otherwise never been safe for them.
The council is sure to remain in NOC after May 2024. Expected ranges: