|
Harlow
Aug 9, 2023 18:04:52 GMT
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:04:52 GMT
Harlow
|
|
|
Harlow
Sept 26, 2023 18:55:24 GMT
Post by carolus on Sept 26, 2023 18:55:24 GMT
|
|
|
Harlow
Sept 26, 2023 19:00:04 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 26, 2023 19:00:04 GMT
Largely favourable to the Conservatives I would think. I remember Robert Waller in one of his Almanacs talking about the prospect of two New Forests striking fear into the hearts of Labour. I think two Church Langleys will have a similar effect..
|
|
|
Post by Adam Gray on Feb 12, 2024 2:30:07 GMT
Are you sure Pete? Even with two Church Langleys I have this down as narrowly Labour if things are like last year. There are four wards reasonably likely to be Labour (12 seats): Little Parndon and Town Centre Mark Hall Netteswell Passmores [Todbrook] There are five likely to be Conservative (15 seats): Church Langley North and Newhall Church Langley South and Potter Street Great Parndon Old Harlow Sumners and KingsmoorThat leaves two marginals: Bush Fair Latton Bush and Stewards [new ward, amalgamation of Staple Tye and Harlow Common] Labour won Bush Fair fairly easily last year, though they're struggling to win it nowadays, so let's give it to them as 2024 isn't likely to be massively different to 2023. That's 15 each. Now the Tories won Staple Tye by 28 votes last year. And Labour won Harlow Common by 62 votes. But a chunk of Harlow Common goes into Church Langley South and, while I do not know the area at all, given Church Langley's pretty Tory, I'm assuming the Church Langley end of Harlow Common is more Tory than the bit going into Latton Bush. So bundling all that up, it seems to me it'll split two Lab to one Con. And that gives Labour an overall majority of one seat. There are two ways of looking at it. This map probably represents how these new wards would have gone taking into account each winner in 2021, 2022 and 2023: Whereas this map is based just on how the votes fell in 2023: What am I getting wrong here?
|
|
|
Harlow
Feb 12, 2024 6:42:52 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 12, 2024 6:42:52 GMT
I don't know that you're getting anything wrong, except perhaps in interpreting my comment to mean the ward boundary changes make this a safely Conservative held council, which would obviously have been an absurd proposition. I simply observed (and it was an impression rather than anything based on in depth analysis) that the new boundaries looked more favourable than the current ones. What would your model predict the result to be if the whole council was up on the existing boundaries?
|
|
|
Harlow
Feb 12, 2024 13:14:59 GMT
via mobile
Post by Adam Gray on Feb 12, 2024 13:14:59 GMT
Probably not that different given Harlow Common and Staple Tye would probably split (maybe Bush Fair too). So maybe the changes boost the Tories by one seat.
Harlow is incredibly sensitive to the vote shares won overall - which sounds self-evident but what I mean by that is that there have been such wildly different vote outcomes here in recent years that it’s too hard to call with much certainty how these really tight wards will go at any given point.
Lab won the borough-wide vote share last year (just), lost by nearly 10 points in 2022 and by over 23 points in 2021. So even a slight Tory improvement might tip a few seats their way.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 5, 2024 11:54:51 GMT
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,330
|
Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 13:19:45 GMT
SOPN: www.harlow.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/Statement%20of%20persons%20nominated%20-%20local%20council.pdfConservative - 33 Labour - 33 Green - 24 (missing 1/3 in Church Langley North & Newhall, Great Parndon, Latton Bush & Stewards, Netteswell, Sumners & Kingsmoor, 2/3 in Church Langley South & Potter Street, Passmores) Harlow Alliance Party - 4 (Great Parndon, Latton Bush & Stewards, Passmores, Sumners & Kingsmoor) Lib Dem - 3 (Bush Fair, Mark Hall, Netteswell) UKIP - 2 (Bush Fair, Mark Hall) TUSC - 1 (Old Harlow) Independent - 1 (Church Langley South & Potter Street)
|
|
|
Harlow
Apr 18, 2024 15:08:41 GMT
Post by Rutlander on Apr 18, 2024 15:08:41 GMT
|
|
|
Harlow
May 3, 2024 4:24:15 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 4:24:15 GMT
This was the result except the Conservatives won 2 of 3 seats in Latton Bush & Stewards to retain control 17/16 Labour were actually slightly closer to winning one of the seats in Sumners & Kingsmoor than another one in Latton Bush (36 votes away from a majority) www.harlow.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/latest-election-news
|
|
|
Harlow
May 3, 2024 7:01:15 GMT
Post by andrewp on May 3, 2024 7:01:15 GMT
Con 17 (-5) Lab 16 (+5)
Con hold, just
|
|
|
Harlow
May 3, 2024 8:00:09 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 8:00:09 GMT
I assume he is readmitted or we end up with a hung council
|
|
|
Harlow
May 3, 2024 8:35:00 GMT
Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 8:35:00 GMT
I assume he is readmitted or we end up with a hung council Assuming that he doesn't think it was one of his fellow councillors he reported him, I'd imagine he'll vote in favour of a Tory administration even before he's readmitted. And I presume the Tories have the mayoralty.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 10:04:44 GMT
Interesting to speculate how this would have gone on the old boundaries, given the discussion above. I think Labour may have edged it - it would have been all down to Staple Tye and how that split I think. Obviously entirely academic, not least as if there hadn't been ward boundary changes the council wouldn't have been all up anyway. The Conservatives would have lost control if it had been just the third of seats elected in 2021 though, so we can say theyw ere saved by the boundary changes.
|
|
|
Harlow
May 3, 2024 11:53:30 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 11:53:30 GMT
I assume he is readmitted or we end up with a hung council Particularly as 'Islamophobic Comment' is of course woke-speak for saying what the majority of us do daily to each other and in the pub where not overseen by the thought police.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,256
|
Post by maxque on May 7, 2024 18:33:55 GMT
Con 17 (-5) Lab 16 (+5) Con hold, just Bush Fair: 3 Lab (by 148/194/228 votes over Con) Church Langley N and Newhall: 3 Con Church Langley S and Potter Street: 3 Con Great Parndon: 3 Con Latton Bush and Stewards: 2 Con, 1 Lab ( Lab 890, Con 881/859/836, Lab 805/781) Little Parndon and Town Centre: 3 Lab Mark Hall: 3 Lab Netteswell: 3 Lab Old Harlow: 3 Con Passmores: 3 Lab Sumners and Kingsmoor: 3 Con (by 36/125/216 votes)
|
|
|
Harlow
May 10, 2024 12:37:54 GMT
Post by andrewp on May 10, 2024 12:37:54 GMT
This was, just, a wrong winner result
Using top vote method, votes were
Lab 7824 39.7% Con 7743 39.4% Green 2235 11.4% Oth 1865 9.5%
Using total votes cast
Lab 21.928 44.3% Con 21,900 44.2% Green 3841 7.8% Oth 1865 3.7%
|
|