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Exeter
Aug 9, 2023 18:04:39 GMT
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:04:39 GMT
Exeter
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Post by carolus on Aug 11, 2023 8:22:55 GMT
Current council: 25 Lab, 6 Green, 4 Con, 3 LD, 1 Ind
Up in 2024: 9 Lab, 2 Con, 1 Green, 1 Ind
The Independent is in Pinhoe and was elected as Labour.
Split wards: Duryard & St James (2 LD, 1 Lab). Lab defend. LD hold by 6.7% over Lab. Heavitree (2 Green, 1 Lab). Lab defend. Green hold by 9.6% over Lab. Newtown & St Leonard's (2 Lab, 1 Green). Lab defend. Green gain from Ind by 12.4% over Lab. St Thomas (2 Lab, 1 LD). Lab defend. LD gain from Lab by 3.9%. Topsham (2 Lab, 1 Con). Con defend. Lab gain from Con by 8.8%.
Close wards: St Loye's - Con hold by 6% over Lab.
2023 Candidates (13): 13 Con, 13 Green, 13 Lab, 13 LD, 1 Reform UK, 2 Ind 2021 Candidates (13 +1): 14 Con, 14 Lab, 10 Green, 10 LD, 2 For Britain, 1 WEP, 1 Ind
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Exeter
Apr 7, 2024 8:28:56 GMT
Post by nw12398 on Apr 7, 2024 8:28:56 GMT
No SOPN yet, but thoughts on wards.
The biggest impetus for change from the last year will be the Heavitree/Whipton LTN scheme. The anti-LTN crowd have been very loud, but the vocal crowd are certainly a minority. If I had to guess, there's probably a majority of people in the area (where changes have taken place) who support traffic calming and improved cycling infrastructure for the area, but probably a majority who disagree with the scheme as enacted. Obviously it's a County Council matter, but I think the effect it will have politically will be felt on both levels.
Where I say 'hold', I mean relative to 2023:
Alphington: comfortable Lab hold Duryard and St James: Lab or LD; for a while its been a close fight between the two Exwick: comfortable Lab hold Heavitree: Over 75% of the votes went to Greens (who won) and Labour last year. I don't know for sure, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's an independent anti-LTN candidate. I suspect that if so, it would be similar to the same sort of candidates in Oxford: getting a sizeable share of the votes but unlikely to win. Outside of that it's not obvious whether Labour or Green have the upper edge. Mincinglake and Whipton: there will no doubt be some effects of the LTN scheme, but I think this will be a safe Labour hold. Newtown and St Leonards: Most likely Green but possibly Labour Pennsylvania: Most likely Labour although the Greens were close last time. Pinhoe: Lab hold. It's not clear to me why the (outgoing) Labour councillor is now independent, but the fact that he hasn't been publicly going on about it suggests that it's probably no issue for Labour. Priory: Lab hold. LTN might have some impact here. St David's: Green hold St Loye's: The only Conservative ward in 2023, with Labour not far behind. This is probably the ward where the LTN is most politically relevant due to the closeness between an anti- and pro- party and geographical proximity as well. Hard to predict the outcome. St Thomas: LD gain from Labour in 2023. I expect it to be close again this time Topsham: Went Labour in the last two elections, and I expect that this will continue.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,796
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 9:54:08 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,363
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Exeter
Apr 8, 2024 9:56:21 GMT
Post by Tony Otim on Apr 8, 2024 9:56:21 GMT
Are the independents connected in any way? Seems a surprisingly even coverage...
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Exeter
Apr 8, 2024 16:39:14 GMT
Post by nw12398 on Apr 8, 2024 16:39:14 GMT
Are the independents connected in any way? Seems a surprisingly even coverage... There are independents in wards where the LTN issue is most relevant (except St Loye's which is Conservative held...), so possibly a slate of anti-LTN candidates, but that's not definitely the case. Outside of that: the Exwick independent is a perennial candidate who used to be part of "For Britain"; the St Thomas candidate is a long-standing councillor who recently fell out with the local Labour Party, having defected to them from the Lib Dems in the early coalition days; no idea about Alphington and Pinhoe—the LTN issue might have some relevance to Pinhoe but I'd be surprised if such a single issue candidate was standing.
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Exeter
Apr 16, 2024 21:35:32 GMT
Post by dp1811 on Apr 16, 2024 21:35:32 GMT
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Exeter
Apr 16, 2024 22:46:43 GMT
Post by dp1811 on Apr 16, 2024 22:46:43 GMT
The elections in Exeter this year are certainly one that might buck the national trend for Labour. They have been on a bit of a downhill slope for the past couple of years, mainly to the Greens’ gain. That said they have now won 2 of the 3 seats in what was always a safe Conservative ward in Topsham.
Going into the election with 25/39 seats, Labour need to hold a net of 5 seats to retain their overall majority. For a back of the envelope prediction from me for each ward, see below:
Alphington: Labour Hold Duryard and St James: Lib Dem Gain Exwick: Labour Hold Heavitree: could be a wildcard given the LTN there, but in most other places the anti-LTN vote has always been a bit of a damp squib and there’s no reason to suggest that won’t be the same here. I also don’t see there being many Green voters from 2023 now voting for a single issue anti-LTN candidate. Green Gain. Mincinglake and Whipton: as above. Maybe with it being a ward with little non-Labour strength it may be easier for an independent but I doubt it. Labour Hold. Newtown and St Leonard’s: my old stomping ground! Better days - which is something the ward’s Labour Party probably agree with. Green Gain. Pennsylvania: Given the Greens’ strength last year and the year Exeter Labour have had? I’m sticking my neck out to say probably a Green Gain. Pinhoe: Labour Hold Priory: Labour Hold St David’s: Green Hold St Loye’s: I think this now seems to be the Tory stronghold in Exeter. The LTN issue will be easier for an existing Tory machine to pick up than it would be for an Independent. Con Hold. St Thomas: Another wildcard. If I had to guess I would say that Rob Hannaford’s Independent candidacy will take more from Labour than from the Lib Dems. Too close to call but if I had to, Lib Dem Gain Topsham: A third wildcard! Labour seem to be solidifying their strength here but if it’s a bad year for Labour the Tories could hold on. Probably a Labour Gain.
So, overall that’s: Labour on 6 (down 4), Greens 4 (up 3), Lib Dems 2 (up 2), Tories 1 (down 1), which would leave Labour with 21 seats, the Progressive Group (LD + Green) on 14 (9 Green, 5 LD), and the Tories down to just 3, plus the 1 independent.
In this scenario, Labour would retain control but with a very small majority, especially as the Lord Mayoral rotation falls to their group next year.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 2:17:53 GMT
St David's
BANYARD James John The Green Party 1187 NEWBY Rob The Conservative Party Candidate 248 STUART Ellen MiriamLabour and Co-operative Party 785 WRIGHT Harry Liberal Democrat 107 Turnout 33.3%
GREEN HOLD
Topsham
FINCH Sarah Jane The Green Party 322 ROLSTONE Gemma Lorraine Labour Party 1339 THOMPSON Cynthia The Conservative Party Candidate 1094 WILLIAMSON Alan Liberal Democrat 217
LAB GAIN FROM CON
Newton and St Leonards
BROCK Philip, Liberal Democrat 96 CABRERA Julian Labour Party 941 SIMMONDS Paul Independent 122 SPARKES Keith The Conservative Party Candidate 211 WETENHALL Lynn Susan The Green Party 1215
Turnout 39.1%
GREEN GAIN FROM LAB
Mincinglake and Whipton
BROWN Oscar Harold The Conservative Party Candidate 290 HUTCHINGS Clive Alan Independent 775 PAYNE Michael Geoffrey Liberal Democrat 111 POLE Liz Labour Party 842 STEPHAN Alex The Green Party 169
Turnout 33.67%
LAB HOLD
Exwick
BIALYK Philip Labour and Co-operative Party 1060 CURNOCK Charles Liberal Democrat 130 HELIANTHUS Eric The Green Party 252 LUSCOMBE Kayleigh The Conservative Party Candidate 256 RUFOLO Frankie, Independent 371
Turnout 28.53%
LAB HOLD
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Exeter
May 3, 2024 2:34:09 GMT
Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 2:34:09 GMT
Priory
ABDULRAZAQ Tal Independent 442 LUSCOMBE David The Conservative Party Candidate 344 MULLETT Heather Ursula The Green Party 233 THOMAS Philip Alexander Liberal Democrat 209 WARDLE Tony Labour Party 888
Turnout 32.34%
LAB HOLD
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Exeter
May 3, 2024 2:43:25 GMT
Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 2:43:25 GMT
Heavitree Independent
COLLACOTT Joan Marilyn The Conservative Party Candidate 355 EADE Jack The Green Party 948 HAIGH Lucy Independent 1171 MUTTON Dave Labour Party 705 RUFFLE Rod Liberal Democrat 76
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Exeter
May 3, 2024 2:49:35 GMT
Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 2:49:35 GMT
St. Loye’s Conservative
BONETTA Jake Labour and Co-operative Party 914 BUTTERS Timothy Robert Liberal Democrat 167 HANCOCK Deb The Green Party 211 JOBSON Anne Margaret The Conservative Party Candidate 1220
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Exeter
May 3, 2024 2:58:13 GMT
Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 2:58:13 GMT
St. Thomas Labour
BRAGG Andy The Green Party 299 CARR Ashley The Conservative Party Candidate 167 DARLING Deborah Charlotte Labour and Co-operative Party 1058 HANNAFORD Rob Independent 464 NEWCOMBE Alexandra Vanessa Liberal Democrat 771
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Exeter
May 3, 2024 3:13:50 GMT
Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 3:13:50 GMT
Alphington Labour
HARDING Rob Labour Party 997 HARRELD Mark Jeffrey Independent 125 HARRISON Benn Elliott The Green Party 289 Horner Jamie Liam Liberal Democrat 151 NEW Katherine Helen Judy The Conservative Party Candidate 606
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Exeter
May 3, 2024 3:17:18 GMT
Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 3:17:18 GMT
Pennsylvania Labour
HUGHES Zoë Jane Labour Party 1106 HUNT Jack The Conservative Party Candidate 390 JARMAN Victoria Independent 297 VICKERS Jack David The Green Party 878 WILLIAMS Nigel David Liberal Democrat 177
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Exeter
May 3, 2024 4:01:31 GMT
Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 4:01:31 GMT
Final Total
Labour Total 24 This Year 8 Loss of 2 Green Total 7 This Year 2 Gain of 1 Lib Dem Total 4 This Year 1 Gain of 1 Con Total 3 This Year 1 Loss of 1 Ind Total 1 This Year 1 Gain of 1
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Exeter
May 3, 2024 10:49:44 GMT
Post by nw12398 on May 3, 2024 10:49:44 GMT
I presume the independent win in Heavitree and the close 2nd place in Mincinglake and Whipton were LTN-related. It is definitely an issue which has rustled feathers. But I was living in Mincinglake and Whipton until a few days before polling day, and travelled through both wards regularly, and saw zero evidence of their campaign. No leaflets, posters or anything.
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Exeter
May 5, 2024 7:41:14 GMT
Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 7:41:14 GMT
Another Labour gain in Topsham - majority 245 compared to 294 last year. As mentioned before, there is a lot of new housing in the ward west of the motorway. Like last year I suspect the Conservatives have probably just about carried Topsham itself, but another good result for Lab.
St Loyes held out for the Tories again - majority 306, compared to 147 last year. The Labour candidate there was Jake Bonetta again who is highly rated and PPC for Honiton & Sidmouth and I’m surprised again that he hasn’t won- a good result for the Conservatives.
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Exeter
May 6, 2024 20:03:26 GMT
via mobile
peterl likes this
Post by dp1811 on May 6, 2024 20:03:26 GMT
One result that I think was missed earlier was…
Duryard and St James Ward:
Tammy Palmer (LD): 891, 45.3% (+3.2 on 2023) Tony Badcott (Lab): 619, 31.5% (-4.1%) Martha Lee (Grn): 270, 13.8% (+1.2%) Rory O’Ferrall (Con): 184, 9.4% (-0.2%)
Turnout: 27.25%. Down just under 6% from last year.
So the Lib Dems complete the set. I’d imagine they’d be very disappointed by the St Thomas result so this result becomes even more important for them.
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