iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,330
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Burnley
May 1, 2024 22:12:05 GMT
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Post by iain on May 1, 2024 22:12:05 GMT
The Clivigier prediction stands out - do you think the Greens are on the wane here?
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tomc
Conservative
Posts: 851
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Burnley
May 1, 2024 22:21:01 GMT
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Post by tomc on May 1, 2024 22:21:01 GMT
Predictions ... only against myself !! Bank Hall - Ind hold B'cliffe - LD hold Brunshaw - Lab hold Cliv & W - Con gain from Green C & D'play - LD hold D & S'holme - Ind hold Gannow - Toss Up Gawth'pe - Labour hold Hapton/Park - Con hold L'head - Labour gain from Ind Q'gate - Ind hold R'Grove/Low - Ind hold Rosehill - Lab hold Trinity - Green hold W'field/I'hill - Con hold .... but what do I know !! The Conservative is up in Gawthorpe so it would be a Labour gain if it happened. I'll be interested to see how Labour get on in Daneshouse against the Independent, it would be amusing if they got knocked in to fourth. I hope the Tories can regain Cliviger with Worsthorne but what makes you think it likely? Has the Green machine declined since Andy Fewings moved? Incidentally on the SOPN on the council website the Green Party (incumbent) candidate in Trinity has 'Green Councillor's as his description. Seems a bit off to me but must be within the rules.
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Post by carolus on May 1, 2024 22:32:14 GMT
Predictions ... only against myself !! Bank Hall - Ind hold B'cliffe - LD hold Brunshaw - Lab hold Cliv & W - Con gain from Green C & D'play - LD hold D & S'holme - Ind hold Gannow - Toss Up Gawth'pe - Labour hold Hapton/Park - Con hold L'head - Labour gain from Ind Q'gate - Ind hold R'Grove/Low - Ind hold Rosehill - Lab hold Trinity - Green hold W'field/I'hill - Con hold .... but what do I know !! The Conservative is up in Gawthorpe so it would be a Labour gain if it happened. I'll be interested to see how Labour get on in Daneshouse against the Independent, it would be amusing if they got knocked in to fourth. I hope the Tories can regain Cliviger with Worsthorne but what makes you think it likely? Has the Green machine declined since Andy Fewings moved? Incidentally on the SOPN on the council website the Green Party (incumbent) candidate in Trinity has 'Green Councillor's as his description. Seems a bit off to me but must be within the rules. "Green Party Councillor" (which is the description on the SOPN) is a registered description for the Green Party. search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP63 That said, electoral services are not all infallible in this regard. See Halton this year, and indeed Halton amongst a couple of others last year.
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Post by lancastrian on May 2, 2024 0:31:33 GMT
Predictions ... only against myself !! Bank Hall - Ind hold B'cliffe - LD hold Brunshaw - Lab hold Cliv & W - Con gain from Green C & D'play - LD hold D & S'holme - Ind hold Gannow - Toss Up Gawth'pe - Labour hold Hapton/Park - Con hold L'head - Labour gain from Ind Q'gate - Ind hold R'Grove/Low - Ind hold Rosehill - Lab hold Trinity - Green hold W'field/I'hill - Con hold .... but what do I know !! The Conservative is up in Gawthorpe so it would be a Labour gain if it happened. I'll be interested to see how Labour get on in Daneshouse against the Independent, it would be amusing if they got knocked in to fourth. I hope the Tories can regain Cliviger with Worsthorne but what makes you think it likely? Has the Green machine declined since Andy Fewings moved? Incidentally on the SOPN on the council website the Green Party (incumbent) candidate in Trinity has 'Green Councillor's as his description. Seems a bit off to me but must be within the rules. Rosegrove is also currently held by Labour, so that would be an Independent gain. Would be impressive if they could pull that off, but maybe they will be helped by the strong vote in the ward for the now defunct Burnley and Padiham Independents and people who don't know or don't care that they're not the same. I'll be surprised if anyone other than Labour wins Gannow. It will be very interesting to see how many votes Labour get in Daneshouse. A stat here is that the last time Labour stood a candidate from outside the Asian community was in 2003, also a year when the party was unpopular over a conflict in the Middle East, and also an election with a fairly strong independent candidate (the Labour candidate back then also had the surname Harrison - not sure if they're related). They got 15%. No other non-Asian candidate has got over 10% of the vote in any election since the last non-Asian councillor lost in 1995. There doesn't seem to be any evidence online of any Labour campaign in Daneshouse and Stoneyholme. Likewise for Bank Hall and Queensgate, so those are all likely independent holds. Both Labour and the independents have been working in Lanehead, so that could be an interesting contest.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,824
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Burnley
May 2, 2024 6:40:01 GMT
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Post by Tony Otim on May 2, 2024 6:40:01 GMT
Predictions ... only against myself !! Bank Hall - Ind hold B'cliffe - LD hold Brunshaw - Lab hold Cliv & W - Con gain from Green C & D'play - LD hold D & S'holme - Ind hold Gannow - Toss Up Gawth'pe - Labour hold Hapton/Park - Con hold L'head - Labour gain from Ind Q'gate - Ind hold R'Grove/Low - Ind hold Rosehill - Lab hold Trinity - Green hold W'field/I'hill - Con hold .... but what do I know !! Brunshaw is a Green defence this year, isn't it? So would be a Lab gain on your prediction?
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Post by ideal4radio on May 2, 2024 9:58:04 GMT
Bank Hall - Ind hold B'cliffe - LD hold Brunshaw - Lab gain from Green Cliv & W - Con gain from Green C & D'play - LD hold D & S'holme - Ind hold Gannow - Toss Up Gawth'pe - Labour gain from Con Hapton/Park - Con hold L'head - Labour gain from Ind Q'gate - Ind hold R'Grove/Low - Lab hold Rosehill - Lab hold Trinity - Green hold W'field/I'hill - Con hold
Now amended, I'd forgotten these incumbents were elected in 2021, following the Covid postponement of 2020. A combination of tiredness, and the bewildering changes, defections and desertions account for my errors last night .... apologies !!
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Post by ideal4radio on May 2, 2024 11:32:51 GMT
The Clivigier prediction stands out - do you think the Greens are on the wane here? May be wrong, but it's as natural Conservative area as you'll get in Burnley, they have a good solid candidate, well known in the area. I seem to remember there were some specific issues around Housebuilding and planning in 2021, and I just think it may revert to type ...
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Post by thirdchill on May 3, 2024 13:24:50 GMT
Predictions ... only against myself !! Bank Hall - Ind hold B'cliffe - LD hold Brunshaw - Lab hold Cliv & W - Con gain from Green C & D'play - LD hold D & S'holme - Ind hold Gannow - Toss Up Gawth'pe - Labour hold Hapton/Park - Con hold L'head - Labour gain from Ind Q'gate - Ind hold R'Grove/Low - Ind hold Rosehill - Lab hold Trinity - Green hold W'field/I'hill - Con hold .... but what do I know !! Mostly correct - burnley.gov.uk/council-democracy/elections-voting/election-results-2024/ - Rosegrove with Lowerhouse was a Lab hold and the Toss-Up (Gannow) went to Labour by a clear margin but otheriwse spot on. The Con Gain from Green was by a clear margin as well.
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Post by ideal4radio on May 3, 2024 14:00:30 GMT
Not too shabby a set of predictions, even if I say so myself,
Three of the four Independents retained their seats, ( Daneshouse with Stonyholme, Queensgate & BankHall ) with only Asif Raja losing out to his old Labour Party in Lanehead. Andy Waddington defeated him by 715 votes to 712. Labour were indeed reduced to 4th place and 10.9% of the vote in Daneshouse with Stonyholme. However, Labour won back seats in Brunshaw, Gawthorpe & Gannow, from the Greens, Conservatives and the now defunct BPIP respectively. The Gawthorpe seat was a rare Con/Lab straight fight.
The Liberal Democrats failed to take any seats, but successfully defended Coalclough with Deerplay & Briercliffe. The Greens probably had the most disappointing results, retaining Trinity, but losing the other two seats they'd won in 2021.
Despite losing Gawthorpe, the Conservatives will have been happy to have held Whittlefield with Ightenhill & the redoubtable Alan Hosker's seat in Hapton with Park. As I suspected, Cliviger & Worsthorne was won back from the Greens with Ivor Emo polling 54.7% in a four horse race, with a majority of 380.
So overall, a real mixed bag ....
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Post by ideal4radio on May 3, 2024 14:06:47 GMT
Predictions ... only against myself !! Bank Hall - Ind hold B'cliffe - LD hold Brunshaw - Lab hold Cliv & W - Con gain from Green C & D'play - LD hold D & S'holme - Ind hold Gannow - Toss Up Gawth'pe - Labour hold Hapton/Park - Con hold L'head - Labour gain from Ind Q'gate - Ind hold R'Grove/Low - Ind hold Rosehill - Lab hold Trinity - Green hold W'field/I'hill - Con hold .... but what do I know !! Mostly correct - burnley.gov.uk/council-democracy/elections-voting/election-results-2024/ - Rosegrove with Lowerhouse was a Lab hold and the Toss-Up (Gannow) went to Labour by a clear margin but otheriwse spot on. The Con Gain from Green was by a clear margin as well. I updated the predictions yesterday morning, with the Rosegrove/Lowerhouse error, and another, rectified .... I just wish I'd had the " corjones " to go with a Labour win in Gannow, then I'd have had the full set, and be able to collect my " Sir John Curtice " badge ( or Bob McKenzie badge if you go back as far as I do ! )
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tomc
Conservative
Posts: 851
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Post by tomc on May 3, 2024 14:33:30 GMT
Full Results (Gain/Hold relative to immediately pre election):
Bank Hall
Hannah Rachel Till (Lab) 456 Susan Margaret Nutter (Con) 147 Lubna Khan (Ind) 737
Ind Hold
Briercliffe
Margaret Ann Lishman (Lib Dem) 497 Pete Coles (Lab) 468 Richard Michael Piers Sagar (Con) 182 Julie Ann Hurt (Grn) 61
Lib Dem hold
Brunshaw
Shaun Sproule (Lab) 520 Andrew Robert Newhouse (Grn) 268 Claire Ingham (Con) 209 Mubashar Lone (Ind) 30
Lab Hold
Cliviger With Worsthorne
Ivor Christopher Emo (Con) 955 Scott Cunliffe (Grn) 575 Carol Lukey Lab) 161 Gorgyanna Kenzington (Lib Dem) 55
Con Gain from Green
Coal Clough with Deerplay
Jaqueline Inckle (Lib Dem) 450 Tom Watson (Con) 210 Anna Maria Hewitt (Grn) 75
Lib Dem Hold
Daneshouse with Stoneyholme
Saeed Akhtar Choudhary (Ind) 1143 Ikram Rafiq (Lib Dem) 375 Mohammed Abu Saleh (Con) 340 James Harrison (Lab) 227
Ind Hold
Gannow
Gemma Haigh (Lab) 590 Rhys Williams (Con) 269 Lewis Bridges (Grn) 71 Kathryn Haworth (Lib Dem) 47 Khalil Pascal (Ind) 17
Lab gain from BPIP
Gawthorpe
Barbara Dole (Lab) 658 Karen Ingham (Con) 424
Lab Gain from Con
Hapton with Park
Alan Hosker (Con) 765 Elaine Cotterell (Lab) 380 Sarah Hall (Grn) 108
Con Hold
Lanehead
Andy Waddington (Lab) 715 Asif Raja (Ind) 712 Abdul Shahid (Con) 261
Lab Gain from Ind
Queensgate
Aurangzeb Ali (Ind) 1184 Keith Till (Lab) 343 Bailey Webster (Con) 184
Ind Hold
Rosegrove with Lowerhouse
Ashley Stephen Brown (Lab) 395 Abbey Hartley (Con) 286 Bea Foster (Ind) 283 Chris Bridges (Grn) 91
Lab Gain from Ind
Rosehill with Burnley Wood
Bill Horrocks (Lab) 467 Russell Neal (Lib Dem)380 Simon John Bonney (Con) 195 Fi Hornby (Grn) 92
Lab Hold
Trinity
Martyn Hurt (Grn) 396 Tony Martin (Lab) 280 Dale Joseph Ferrier (Con) 85
Green Hold
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Post by ideal4radio on May 3, 2024 15:23:00 GMT
Whittlefield with Ightenhill
Mitchell James Cryer (Ind) 47
Duncan Gareth Reed (Grn) 244
David Roper (Ind) 139
Liam Walsh (Lab) 305
Donald Michael Arthur Whitaker (Con) 647
Con Hold
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tomc
Conservative
Posts: 851
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Post by tomc on May 3, 2024 16:05:34 GMT
Whittlefield with Ightenhill Mitchell James Cryer (Ind) 47 Duncan Gareth Reed (Grn) 244 David Roper (Ind) 139 Liam Walsh (Lab) 305 Donald Michael Arthur Whitaker (Con) 647 Con Hold Ahh, I forgot one. Good set of results for the Conservatives, I thought both Whittlefield with Ightenhill and Gawthorpe might be lost though I'd hoped Karen in Gawthorpe would have enough of a personal vote to get through and might have done if there'd been more candidates. Glad to see Ivor get back in Cliviger. Not actually good for the Greens losing Cliviger with Worsthorne by a wide margin, albeit it's in no way natural territory for them and the hold in Trinity was not by a great margin compared to how conclusively it's been won in the past. Labour must look to win this back if they can get a better candidate. Probably highlights the problem with gaining councillors just off the back of hard work and main party unpopularity; you can suffer big reverses without really doing anything wrong.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,256
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Post by maxque on May 3, 2024 19:16:55 GMT
Third: Lab 6 (+1), Con 3 (-1), Ind 3 (+3), LD 2, Grn 1 (-2), BPIP 0 (-1) Council: Lab 15 (+4), Ind 10 (-3), Con 8 (+1), LD 7, Grn 5 (-2)
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Post by lancastrian on May 6, 2024 16:46:23 GMT
In the wards where Gaza wasn't a factor, this was actually Labour's best result since 2015
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Post by batman on May 6, 2024 17:31:11 GMT
I still can't see beyond a Labour gain here in the general election
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,876
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Post by Sibboleth on May 6, 2024 18:26:04 GMT
The 2024 map is incredibly burnley.txt isn't it.
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tomc
Conservative
Posts: 851
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Post by tomc on May 7, 2024 15:41:07 GMT
I still can't see beyond a Labour gain here in the general election Well this is probably true and would have been even on the old boundaries. On the other hand if Gaza were to still be an issue at the General Election then there is the potential for Burnley to become very funny indeed as you can imagine Labour doing well in the White working class areas, Galloway's lot taking the independent vote, the Greens doing OK and the Tories and Lib Dems maintaining their core votes and Reform taking 10% the winner could have a spectacularly low vote share.
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