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Post by robert1 on Apr 22, 2024 18:50:53 GMT
Want to put on record how much I enjoy reading the Leeds analysis every year.
No rancour, no (or very little) ramping. Just serious consideration of the personalities and the ebbs and flows of local politics. Well done to all concerned.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,362
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 22, 2024 19:40:34 GMT
Want to put on record how much I enjoy reading the Leeds analysis every year. No rancour, no (or very little) ramping. Just serious consideration of the personalities and the ebbs and flows of local politics. Well done to all concerned. Which stands rather in contrast to certain other Yorkshire metropolitan boroughs...
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Leeds
Apr 22, 2024 20:53:45 GMT
via mobile
Post by bluelabour on Apr 22, 2024 20:53:45 GMT
There’s an unusually high number of married couples on Leeds council. 8 out of 18 of the Conservative group!
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Leeds
Apr 22, 2024 21:59:23 GMT
Post by blocktext on Apr 22, 2024 21:59:23 GMT
There’s an unusually high number of married couples on Leeds council. 8 out of 18 of the Conservative group! Since 2000 There was another one a few years ago their deputy leader John Proctor and his wife Rachel. The Green's used to have David & Ann Blackburn. Labour Jim & Andrea McKenna (& was Stuart McKenna Jim's son?), Peter & Caroline Gruen and Pauline & Ron Grahame, Karen & Stuart Bruce (not at the same time) Mick & Marlene Lyons and their daughter Debra Coupar, LibDems Jonathan & Sue Bentley, Christine & Richard Brett (not at the same time). Then there are also siblings LibDem Mark Harris & Judith Chapman. Father/Son Labour Michael & Patrick Davey. It's a family affair! I bet I've missed some...
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Post by kvasir on Apr 22, 2024 22:06:12 GMT
There’s an unusually high number of married couples on Leeds council. 8 out of 18 of the Conservative group! Since 2000 There was another one a few years ago their deputy leader John Proctor and his wife Rachel. The Green's used to have David & Ann Blackburn. Labour Jim & Andrea McKenna (& was Stuart McKenna Jim's son?), Peter & Caroline Gruen and Pauline & Ron Grahame, Karen & Stuart Bruce (not at the same time) Mick & Marlene Lyons and their daughter Debra Coupar, LibDems Jonathan & Sue Bentley, Christine & Richard Brett (not at the same time). Then there are also siblings LibDem Mark Harris & Judith Chapman. Father/Son Labour Michael & Patrick Davey. It's a family affair! I bet I've missed some... The Latties in Guiseley and Rawdon are perhaps the most notable omission but there are others. At one point, many councillors had names of places in Yorkshire which was quite noticeable at the time.
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Post by blocktext on Apr 22, 2024 22:17:01 GMT
Since 2000 There was another one a few years ago their deputy leader John Proctor and his wife Rachel. The Green's used to have David & Ann Blackburn. Labour Jim & Andrea McKenna (& was Stuart McKenna Jim's son?), Peter & Caroline Gruen and Pauline & Ron Grahame, Karen & Stuart Bruce (not at the same time) Mick & Marlene Lyons and their daughter Debra Coupar, LibDems Jonathan & Sue Bentley, Christine & Richard Brett (not at the same time). Then there are also siblings LibDem Mark Harris & Judith Chapman. Father/Son Labour Michael & Patrick Davey. It's a family affair! I bet I've missed some... The Latties in Guiseley and Rawdon are perhaps the most notable omission but there are others. At one point, many councillors had names of places in Yorkshire which was quite noticeable at the time. Yes of course I forgot about the Latties - Going back a bit there was Mick and Moira Dunn in the old Aireborough ward.
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Leeds
Apr 22, 2024 22:32:08 GMT
via mobile
Post by kvasir on Apr 22, 2024 22:32:08 GMT
The Latties in Guiseley and Rawdon are perhaps the most notable omission but there are others. At one point, many councillors had names of places in Yorkshire which was quite noticeable at the time. Yes of course I forgot about the Latties - Going back a bit there was Mick and Moira Dunn in the old Aireborough ward. Indeed. And if course who can forget Mark Dobson and his sister Catherine Dobson and his girlfriend Janette Walker. Catherine and Janette joined the East Leeds Independents and lost when they followed Mark out of Labour. Mark is still a councillor in Garforth & Swillington with his new local party for local people.
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Leeds
Apr 23, 2024 9:43:36 GMT
Post by Ron Swanson on Apr 23, 2024 9:43:36 GMT
Predictions from me then...
Adel - Lab gain from Con Alwoodley - Lab gain from Con Ardsley - Lab gain from Con Armley - Green gain from Lab Beeston - Lab hold Bramley - Lab hold Burmantofts - Lab hold Calverley - Lab gain from Con Chapel Allerton - Lab hold Cross Gates - Lab hold Farnley - Lab gain from Green Garforth - Ind hold Gipton - Lab hold Guiseley - Lab gain from Con Harewood - Con hold Headingley - Lab hold Horsforth - Lab hold Hunslet - Lab hold Killingbeck - Lab hold Kippax - Lab hold Kirkstall - Lab hold Little London - Lab hold Middleton - SDP gain from Lab Moortown - Lab hold Morley N - Ind hold Morley S - Ind hold Otley - Lib Dem hold Pudsey - Lab gain from Con Rothwell - Lib Dem hold Roundhay - Lab hold Temple Newsam - Lab hold Weetwood - Lab hold Wetherby - Green gain from Con
--
Labour up 5 Greens up 1 SDP up 1 Tories down 7
I think all of the Lab/Green battles could be quite close, I think Labour will win in Farnley, Headingley & Hunslet, and lose Armley... but we'll see.
Tories... hammered basically everywhere. They'll hang on in Harewood but that'll be it.
Garforth will remain indy with a big majority for Sarah Field.
Morley independents will remain in situ too, with reduced majorities... Morley S going Labour wouldn't be a shock though.
I can't really say for sure how good the local Tory cllrs are but the national picture will ruin them...
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Post by bluelabour on Apr 23, 2024 11:17:24 GMT
Predictions from me then... Adel - Lab gain from Con Alwoodley - Lab gain from Con Do you really think the Tories are in a position to lose Adel and Alwoodley? The national polling isn’t that different to this time last year and the Tories held on comfortably then. I could just about imagine Alwoodley considering its history and what looks like an active Labour campaign there, but not Adel.
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Post by kvasir on Apr 23, 2024 12:17:45 GMT
Adel is an extremely hard ask. Labour want to boost their numbers in Adel & Wharfedale for the new Leeds North West constituency which is comprised of Adel & Wharfedale, Guiseley & Rawdon, Horsforth, and Otley & Yeadon. The fact Labour are competitive here is indicative of broader changes in the electorate. At one point Labour was running Leeds City Council with a clear majority and had precisely zero seats in these wards. Now Labour have all three seats in Horsforth, two of three in Guiseley & Rawdon (going for the third), and are currently transfer friendly in a General Election climate to a sufficient number of Otley & Yeadon Liberal Democrats. Katie White ran an impressive selection campaign to beat two very popular councillors and is working with Tracy Brabin to improve Labour's numbers here.
Labour have selected Dr Jane Orton to contest the seat. She lives in Bramhope which is typically a weak part of the ward. She's a retired doctor and is a councillor on the Bramhope & Carlton Parish Council. Note that she was not elected, there was no competitive election in this Parish Council. She currently is not on any committees on the council according to the parish council website. It's not exactly great when the candidate has to pin at the top of their Twitter profile "I apologise unreservedly for the offensive comments I made on social media which have recently come to light. I am sorry for the comments, they were wrong." Not sure what the comments are. Definitely one of the more low key campaigns at this time.
My guess is Labour will do better here than in 2023 but I don't think that we'll win it.
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Leeds
Apr 23, 2024 12:20:52 GMT
Post by Ron Swanson on Apr 23, 2024 12:20:52 GMT
Predictions from me then... Adel - Lab gain from Con Alwoodley - Lab gain from Con Do you really think the Tories are in a position to lose Adel and Alwoodley? The national polling isn’t that different to this time last year and the Tories held on comfortably then. I could just about imagine Alwoodley considering its history and what looks like an active Labour campaign there, but not Adel. Yeah - I do. From a Leeds perspective I think the Labour majority is already uncomfortably large, but it is what it is... I'm not a Labour supporter by any stretch and sympathise with people who will inevitably lose their seats, largely as a result of the incompetence of the national government.
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Leeds
Apr 23, 2024 12:25:08 GMT
Post by matureleft on Apr 23, 2024 12:25:08 GMT
Adel is an extremely hard ask. Labour want to boost their numbers in Adel & Wharfedale for the new Leeds North West constituency which is comprised of Adel & Wharfedale, Guiseley & Rawdon, Horsforth, and Otley & Yeadon. The fact Labour are competitive here is indicative of broader changes in the electorate. At one point Labour was running Leeds City Council with a clear majority and had precisely zero seats in these wards. Now Labour have all three seats in Horsforth, two of three in Guiseley & Rawdon (going for the third), and are currently transfer friendly in a General Election climate to a sufficient number of Otley & Yeadon Liberal Democrats. Katie White ran an impressive selection campaign to beat two very popular councillors and is working with Tracy Brabin to improve Labour's numbers here. Labour have selected Dr Jane Orton to contest the seat. She lives in Bramhope which is typically a weak part of the ward. She's a retired doctor and is a councillor on the Bramhope & Carlton Parish Council. Note that she was not elected, there was no competitive election in this Parish Council. She currently is not on any committees on the council according to the parish council website. It's not exactly great when the candidate has to pin at the top of their Twitter profile "I apologise unreservedly for the offensive comments I made on social media which have recently come to light. I am sorry for the comments, they were wrong." Not sure what the comments are. Definitely one of the more low key campaigns at this time. My guess is Labour will do better here than in 2023 but I don't think that we'll win it. The second in this story is hers. Pretty recent (compared to the digging that's sometimes involved). I'm surprised it got past the Labour internal processes. metro.co.uk/2024/04/13/labour-candidate-apologises-calling-queen-a-jumped-old-wh-re-20642160/
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Leeds
Apr 23, 2024 12:53:44 GMT
Post by kvasir on Apr 23, 2024 12:53:44 GMT
Adel is an extremely hard ask. Labour want to boost their numbers in Adel & Wharfedale for the new Leeds North West constituency which is comprised of Adel & Wharfedale, Guiseley & Rawdon, Horsforth, and Otley & Yeadon. The fact Labour are competitive here is indicative of broader changes in the electorate. At one point Labour was running Leeds City Council with a clear majority and had precisely zero seats in these wards. Now Labour have all three seats in Horsforth, two of three in Guiseley & Rawdon (going for the third), and are currently transfer friendly in a General Election climate to a sufficient number of Otley & Yeadon Liberal Democrats. Katie White ran an impressive selection campaign to beat two very popular councillors and is working with Tracy Brabin to improve Labour's numbers here. Labour have selected Dr Jane Orton to contest the seat. She lives in Bramhope which is typically a weak part of the ward. She's a retired doctor and is a councillor on the Bramhope & Carlton Parish Council. Note that she was not elected, there was no competitive election in this Parish Council. She currently is not on any committees on the council according to the parish council website. It's not exactly great when the candidate has to pin at the top of their Twitter profile "I apologise unreservedly for the offensive comments I made on social media which have recently come to light. I am sorry for the comments, they were wrong." Not sure what the comments are. Definitely one of the more low key campaigns at this time. My guess is Labour will do better here than in 2023 but I don't think that we'll win it. The second in this story is hers. Pretty recent (compared to the digging that's sometimes involved). I'm surprised it got past the Labour internal processes. metro.co.uk/2024/04/13/labour-candidate-apologises-calling-queen-a-jumped-old-wh-re-20642160/"Meanwhile, Leeds central candidate Jane Orton called for the end of the monarchy on September 8 2022, the day Queen Elizabeth II died, the Express reports." 'Leeds central candidate' is about the level of incorrect detail I'd expect from the Metro. No wonder I couldn't find anything when I Googled "Jane Orton Adel Whalfedale" or "Jan Orton Bramhope Carlton".
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Leeds
Apr 23, 2024 13:05:38 GMT
Post by gibbon on Apr 23, 2024 13:05:38 GMT
So far all the Conservatives appear to have done is pay Royal Mail to deliver two leaflet. There is a much stronger Labour campaign in the ward with a young active candidate who last year reduced the Conservative Majority to under a 1000. Many years ago the Conservative majority was at least 2000 in a bad year for them. The majority of the Leeds Jewsih community live in the Alwoodley ward and the Liberal Democrat candidate has a fairly high profile in the Jewish community and may take sufficient votes to swing the ward to Labour. The bulk of the ward was in the old North ward before 2004. In 1995 Labour gained that ward by 95 votes and in 1996 the Liberal Democrats won the seat and held it 2000.
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Leeds
Apr 23, 2024 13:14:13 GMT
Post by kvasir on Apr 23, 2024 13:14:13 GMT
North Ward is basically Alwoodley. Labour gain in 1995
1995- North Ward: Labour: 2,047 Conservative: 1,956 Liberal Democrats: 1,721 Greens: 90
Then in 1996, the Liberal Democrats won the ward:
1996- North Ward: Liberal Democrats: 2,221 Conservative: 1,936 Labour: 1,883
Last year: Conservative: 3,253 Labour: 2,350 Liberal Democrats: 419 Green: 340 Yorkshire: 164
Jackie Ellis is keen, has a lot of energy and support from the party, and Labour are far more popular with the Jewish community than they were a few years ago. It's a tough ask to win it but Labour absolutely can. We know the Conservatives are concerned because they've put out a deceptive leaflet.
If Labour win Adel & Wharfedale, I think it is nailed on they win Alwoodley.
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Leeds
Apr 23, 2024 13:59:52 GMT
Post by gibbon on Apr 23, 2024 13:59:52 GMT
'Deceptive' is a polite word to use to describe their leaflet. They have blamed the Mayor for the end of a bus service long before she had any powers over public transport. Looking at Facebook sites which cover the area is interesting. Posts criticising the Conservatives seem to quickly vanish. While Councillor Dan Cohen is considered to be a hard working councillor except at election time residents hear very little about the other councillors action except as 'part of the team' and some Conservatives are campaigning for the sitting councillor up for election as 'part of the team' which must not be broken. Conservatives locally are worried that the Liberal Democrat candidate will siphon off sufficient 'non-political' votes from the Jewsih community which they think might help the Labour candidate to gain the seat.
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Post by devolutionist on May 3, 2024 12:43:39 GMT
Desperately awaiting news on whether I've beaten the Alliance for Green Socialism in Chapel Allerton
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Leeds
May 3, 2024 13:27:19 GMT
Post by gibbon on May 3, 2024 13:27:19 GMT
The Alliance for Gren Socialism was formed by Labour Party members who opposed the selection of Fabian Hamilton as the Labour candidate for the 1997 General Election. Most of them had supported Liz Davis who had been selected from an all women short list in 1996. Shortly after she had been eleceted infomation surfaced about some of her activties in Islington and the National Executive refursed to endorse her. After Hamilton was selected information was circulated abot Hamilton's business affairs and some dissident Labour Party members issued a private prosection but the case was unsuccessful.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,235
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 14:12:54 GMT
Headingley & Hyde Park : Green gain from Lab Ardsley & Robin Hood: Labour gain from Con Middleton Park: SPD gain from Labour
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 3, 2024 14:22:18 GMT
Headingley & Hyde Park : Green gain from Lab Ardsley & Robin Hood: Labour gain from Con Middleton Park: SPD gain from Labour
We know what you meant.
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