Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on Mar 13, 2024 10:38:18 GMT
An update in the situation in the Jewel after last nights (final of the year) council meeting. As noted elsewhere Cllr Julie Lintern (not up for election) is now sitting as an independent, but not with the Bradford Independant Group, so one off the Labour total and they now need to lose 8 seats to lose control. I am led to believe that neither of the Bradford South Independents will be standing again, although they did have a motion last night and their former colleage came with a petition at a previous meeting so I wonder. I don’t think Ann Hawksworth in Ilkley has made her intentions clear, There was nothing about them last night when as a longstanding member some comment might have been expected if she was planning to retire. Last month the Bradford Independant Group announced that they would be standing 14 candidates in the May elections - all of Bradford West, Keighley Central and West in Keighley, Whindhill and Wrose and Shipley in Shipley, Bowling and Barkerend, Little Horton and Bolton and Underclffe in Bradford East and Wibsey in Bradford South. Last night on a motion on Gaza and related issues no fewer than ten Labour members spoke. Leaving the Leader and Deputy, of the remaining eight, six are up for election, five in wards the BIG say they will contest. All the labour speakers made a point of criticising the BIG for “using the suffering in Gaza to further their political ends”. I make no comment on the rightness or otherwise of this critisism but report it as evidence that Labour do seem to be taking the threat from the BIG with some seriousness.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,353
Member is Online
|
Post by YL on Apr 5, 2024 18:03:11 GMT
www.bradford.gov.uk/your-council/elections-and-voting/statement-of-persons-nominated-district-council-elections/Lab 30 Con 30 Green 30 Lib Dem 24 (missing Bolton & Undercliffe, City, Heaton, Little Horton, Manningham, Toller) Yorkshire Party 12 (Bolton & Undercliffe, Bowling & Barkerend, Bradford Moor, Craven, Eccleshill, Great Horton, Idle & Thackley, Keighley W, Little Horton, Tong, Wharfedale, Wibsey) Reform UK 4 (Keighley W, Royds, Shipley, Wyke) TUSC 2 (Bolton & Undercliffe, Eccleshill) SDP 1 (Keighley E) UKIP 1 (Craven) British Democrats 1 (Wyke) Ind 16 (Baildon, Bolton & Undercliffe, Bowling & Barkerend, City, Clayton & Fairweather Green, Great Horton, Heaton, Keighley C, Keighley E, Little Horton, Manningham, Queensbury, Shipley, Thornton & Allerton, Toller, Wibsey) no description 1 (Ilkley)
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,353
Member is Online
|
Post by YL on Apr 5, 2024 18:45:00 GMT
The Independent/no description candidates in Ilkley, Little Horton and Queensbury are all sitting councillors, one each from three of the separate Independent groups on the council (Anne Hawkesworth the "Ilkey Independent" (sic), Talat Sajawal of the "Bradford Independent Group" and Luke Majkowski of the "Bradford South Independents"). The Independent in Bolton & Undercliffe is former Lib Dem MP David Ward.
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on Apr 5, 2024 22:14:51 GMT
Thanks YL, beat me to it. I’ll do the usual ward by ward stuff as soon as possible
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on Apr 6, 2024 8:01:40 GMT
The Independent/no description candidates in Ilkley, Little Horton and Queensbury are all sitting councillors, one each from three of the separate Independent groups on the council (Anne Hawkesworth the "Ilkey Independent" (sic), Talat Sajawal of the "Bradford Independent Group" and Luke Majkowski of the "Bradford South Independents"). The Independent in Bolton & Undercliffe is former Lib Dem MP David Ward. Given their previous statements I believe all the remainder are associated with BIG, apart from Ashton in Baildon who I suspect is an independent Independent. BIG don’t have the promised candidate in Windhill and Wrose and are standing in Keighley East rather than West but that could easily be a mistake by either the T and A or myself.
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Apr 30, 2024 14:09:59 GMT
David Herdson , the Yorkshire Party in Tong ward is also standing in Wakefield Rural on Thursday .
|
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,543
|
Post by iang on Apr 30, 2024 14:19:27 GMT
Presumably that is the same David Herdson who is a long time poster on our friends and rivals at Political Betting
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Apr 30, 2024 14:40:18 GMT
Presumably that is the same David Herdson who is a long time poster on our friends and rivals at Political Betting The one and same.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,729
|
Post by The Bishop on May 1, 2024 10:54:16 GMT
Also an occasional poster on here (as davidh)
|
|
|
Post by batman on May 1, 2024 11:02:50 GMT
he's been posting quite a lot in recent days
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2024 20:40:39 GMT
Sorry for leaving this so late, but I think it still has some value, even if only to expose my gormlessness! I did most of this a few weeks ago and have not made any updates, but I don't think my views have changed, and of course the facts have not even if there may be inaccuracies.
General:
30*3 member wards, no coincidental by elections. The 30 members elected will serve 2 years until all up elections in 2026 following a boundary review
Council after May 2023 elections: Labour 56 Conservative 16 Green 8 Liberal Democrat 5 Bradford Independents 2 Bradford South Independents 2 Ilkley Independent 1
Council as of April 2024 Labour 53 Conservative 15 Green 8 Liberal Democrat 5 BIG 4 Bradford South Independents 2 Ilkley Independent 1 Independent (former Con)1 Independent (former Lab) 1
Up for election this time: Labour 15 Conservative 6 Green 2 Liberal democrat 3 Bradford independents 1 Bradford South Independents 2 Ilkley Independent 1
Nominations received: (Details above, thanks to YL. Indies allocated on best guess)
Labour 30 Conservative 30 Green 30 Liberal Democrat 24
Bradford Independent Group 14 Yorkshire Party 12 Reform UK 4 TUSC 2 SDP 1 British democrats 1 UKIP 1 Ilkley Independent 1 Bradford South Independent 1 Independent 1
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2024 20:41:53 GMT
Shipley
Baildon
Currently 3 Con Last time: Con 44 Lab 41 GP 5 LD 5 RUK 4 Candidates: Lab, Local Con, Green Lib Dem, Ind
The Ind is the former Labour candidate who came within 150 votes last time, presumably deselected and unsurprisingly unhappy. I don’t think affiliated with BIG. Debbie Davies will be anxious but should hang on, presumably the Tories will go all out following last years shock and the Labour vote will be split.
Bingley
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 47 Con 40 GP 9 LD4 Candidates: Lab, Local Con, Green, Lib dem
Unsurprising and comfortable Labour gain last time, doubtless a hold this year
Bingley Rural
Currently 3 Con last time Con 47 Lab 23 Ind 18 GP 8 LD 4 Candidates: Lab, Local Con, Green, lib Dem
Con hold likely despite everything
Shipley
Currently 3 Green Last time: GP 65 Lab 25 Con 9 LD 2 Candidates Lab, Local Con, Green, Lib Dem, Ref UK, Ind
I’m not sure if the Ind is affiliated to BIG. Comfortable hold for my running club mate Martin Love
Wharfedale
Currently 2 Con 1 Lab Defending Con Last time: Lab 39 Con 39 GP 10 LD 10
Candidates: Lab, Local Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party
Shock gain (by 26 votes) for Lab last time. Given the national changes since then they should gain another
Windhill and Wrose
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 60 Con 25 LD 8 GP 7 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem
Safe for Lab
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2024 20:43:11 GMT
Keighley
Craven
Currently 2 GP 1 Con defending Con Last time: GP 49 Con 32 Lab 12 YP 5 LD 1 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party, UKIP
Boris mini-me Peter Clarke has presumably seen which way the wind is blowing and is not defending his seat. Greens will presumably take it
Ilkley
Currently 2 Con 1 Ilkley Ind Defending Ilkley Ind Last time: Con 42 GP 39 Lab 15 LD 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Ilkley Ind
Narrow (and to them disappointing) miss for the Greens last year. Ann Hawksworth was elected as an independent with 29% 4 years ago. With her and the official conservative dividing the right leaning vote between them I suspect the Greens will edge it (at least) this year
Keighley Central
Currently 2 Lab I ind Defending Lab Last time: Lab 49 Con 36 Ind 9 GP 3 Ind 1 LD 1 Candidates: Lab. Con. Green. Lib Dem. BIG
As complicated as ever. The Indy who took 9% last time was the former Tory councillor for the ward standing after deselection. The Indy who isn’t up for election was also elected as a Conservative but removed from the group last year over comments on Gay Pride, so neither have any affiliation with the BIG. This is not a ward where traditional party ideology plays a huge part so BIG could win here
Keighley East
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 51 Con 36 GP 7 LD 5 SDP 1 Candidates: Lab Con, Green, Lib Dem, BIG, SDP
Kudos to the SDP for persistence. Long Standing member Malcolm Slater standing down for labour. Should be a Labour hold unless BIG pull off a surprise. Could the Conservatives “Come through the middle” - I don’t think so.
Keighley West
Currently 1 Con, 1 Lab 1 Ind Defending Con Last time: Lab 47 Con 45 LD 4 GP 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, YP, RefUK
More complications! The Indy here was Labour but was removed from the group for (or removed herself by) voting against the labour budget. The Green Candidate, Adrian Farley is a former labour councillor (and Childrens Services portfolio holder) who stood here 4 years ago (for Labour) and was narrowly defeated by the Con who is attempting to defend her seat. The Greens are quite chipper about this but I would be surprised if this is not a routine Labour pick upI
Worth Valley
Currently 3 Con Last time: Con 59 Lab 32 GP 5 LD 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem
Likely Con hold
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2024 20:44:50 GMT
Bradford West
With the Bradford Independent Group standing in all wards in Bradford West we may see some upsets.
City
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 79 Con 11 GP 10 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG
Lab hold or BIG gain - who knows. If forced to choose I would say Lab
Clayton and Fairweather Green
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 69 Con 19 GP 8 LD 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, BIG
More of a stretch for BIG and a likely Lab hold
Heaton
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 58 GP 37 Con 3 LD 2 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG
Greens have polled well over the last 2 elections (despite what appears to have been an unofficial ‘lets not try very hard’ last time.) with BIG intervention they could easily “come through the middle”
Manningham
Currently 2 Lab 1 BIG Defending BIG elected as Lab Last time: Lab 51 Ind 44 GP 3 Con 2 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG
The BIG candidate here is the Indy who stood the last 2 years and did extremely well, not the BIG defector who was the sitting councillor. Probably the most likely BIG “gain” (Update - the poster count would suggest this).
Thornton and Allerton
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 62 Con 21 GP 9 LD 9 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, BIG
My home ward and apparently one of the ones Labour are worried about, which surprises me. I would have though a safe Lab hold despite BIG intervention. Does the Tory vote have any further to fall? If so will the BCW benefit? Could this be a surprise LD gain? (despite her being told this by the Labour candidate I am not holding my breath. I suspect the nervousness is increased by being the nominee for Lord Mayor next year)
Toller
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 82 GP 9 Con 8 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG
Another GOK BIG/Lab I’d say Lab
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2024 20:45:38 GMT
Bradford South
Great Horton
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 70 Con 10 Ind 7 LD 5 GP 4 YP 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party, BIG
Lab I think but again who knows
Queensbury
Currently 2 Lab 1 BSI Defending BSI Last time: Lab 35 Ind 31 Con 25 GP 7 LD 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Bradford South Independent
Labour gains on a split Con/Former Con vote last 2 years, This time I think the BSI will edge it.
Royds
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 64 Con 22 GP 9 LD 5 Candidates:: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Ref UK
Lab hold
Tong
Currently 3 Green Last time: GP 60 Lab 25 Con 9 LD 4 YP 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party
Green hold
Wibsey
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 56 Con 21 LD 14 GP 5 YP 4 Candidates Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party, BIG
Lab hold
Wyke
Currently 2 Lab 1 BSI (Not) Defending BSI Last time: Lab 56 Con 24 LD 6 BDP 5 RUK 5 GP 5 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, RefUK, British Democrats
Joan Clarke not making what would have been a likely doomed attempt to defend her seat as an Ind and no BIG so routine Lab gain
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2024 20:47:16 GMT
Bradford East
Bolton and Undercliffe
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 60 LD 19 Con 9 GP 5 YP 5 RUK 3 TUSC 1 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG, Yorkshire Party, TUSC
This is believed to be one of the BIGs main targets and one of the defences Labour are concerned about. David Ward, standing for the BIG has a fair amount of personal support here from his time as a councillor and MP, so could make it
Bowling and Barkerend
Currently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 75 LD 8 Con 7 GP 5 YP 4 Candidates: L:ab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, BIG, Yorkshire Party
Another Lab/BIG slug fest and one that Labour are allegedly worried about
Bradford Moor
Currently 2 Lab 1 LD Defending LD Last time: Lab 56 LD 37 Con 4 YP 1 GP 1 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire party Labour candidate Margaret Alipoor was a councillor for Clayton and Fairweather Green and presumably deselected. With no BIG candidate my fingers are crossed for a LD hold
Eccleshill
Currently 2 Lab 1 LD Defending LD Last time: Lab 43 LD 35 Con 14 YP 5 GP 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party, TUSC
Will be difficult after the last two results, but Brendan is a strong candidate and Labour are somewhat distracted by the BIG threat elsewhere and haven’t been pouring activists in from outside so I’m saying LD hold
Idle and Thackley
Currently 3 LD Last time: LD 64 Lab 19 Con10 YP 4 GP 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party
I’m not about to score as highly as Jeanette did last year, but I’ll go out on a limb and say LD hold
Little Horton
Currently 3 BIG Last time: Lab 86 YP 4 Con 4 GP 3 LD 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG, Yorkshire Party
BIG hold
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,428
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2024 20:47:48 GMT
Overall thoughts:
Labour need to take 8 seats to continue overall control, and with some likely gains on the cards I don’t think BIG have any chance of taking the 8 or more seats than need to deprive labour. However it does appear that Labour are anxious about them and are piling resources into wards they deem to be at risk - including some surprising ones.
Only a foolish man would predict the actual number of BIG seats - and if they do end up with any reasonable sized group it will be interesting to see how it holds together.
The Conservatives are defending 6 of their 15 seats, and only 2 are remotely safe, with the Greens almost certain to get 9 and with at least 2 more good chances it is possible that they will end up as the second largest party and opposition. It is also remotely possible that BIG will be up there with 10 or so members which would make things very interesting, but I think that is less likely
|
|
|
Bradford
May 1, 2024 21:24:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by swanarcadian on May 1, 2024 21:24:44 GMT
My brother is a work colleague of the Lib Dem candidate in Baildon, although not in a political sense. The Lib Dems used to be so competitive here but seem to have given up completely in the past decade. I never get so much as a leaflet from them. Labour have effectively taken their place to such an extent that they may well win the ward for the first ever time, which used to be unthinkable. One of their supporters canvassed me about a week ago. They seem to have more posters up than the Conservatives, but then they usually do, don’t they. I’ve seen a few Ashton posters where Labour ones were last year. The intervention of Mr. Ashton, as Crimson King mentions, may well save Debbie’s bacon. What may work in her favour is that she’s an established councillor of 12 years whereas our candidate last year was a newbie.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,611
|
Post by john07 on May 2, 2024 0:51:41 GMT
An update in the situation in the Jewel after last nights (final of the year) council meeting. As noted elsewhere Cllr Julie Lintern (not up for election) is now sitting as an independent, but not with the Bradford Independant Group, so one off the Labour total and they now need to lose 8 seats to lose control. I am led to believe that neither of the Bradford South Independents will be standing again, although they did have a motion last night and their former colleage came with a petition at a previous meeting so I wonder. I don’t think Ann Hawksworth in Ilkley has made her intentions clear, There was nothing about them last night when as a longstanding member some comment might have been expected if she was planning to retire. Last month the Bradford Independant Group announced that they would be standing 14 candidates in the May elections - all of Bradford West, Keighley Central and West in Keighley, Whindhill and Wrose and Shipley in Shipley, Bowling and Barkerend, Little Horton and Bolton and Underclffe in Bradford East and Wibsey in Bradford South. Last night on a motion on Gaza and related issues no fewer than ten Labour members spoke. Leaving the Leader and Deputy, of the remaining eight, six are up for election, five in wards the BIG say they will contest. All the labour speakers made a point of criticising the BIG for “using the suffering in Gaza to further their political ends”. I make no comment on the rightness or otherwise of this critisism but report it as evidence that Labour do seem to be taking the threat from the BIG with some seriousness. I am fascinated that Members of Bradford City Council are taking foreign policy seriously, at least as regards to Israel and the middle east! We obviously need more foreign policy discussion in council chambers? I think that the GLC under Livingstone pioneered this?
|
|
|
Bradford
May 3, 2024 15:19:19 GMT
via mobile
Post by swanarcadian on May 3, 2024 15:19:19 GMT
Mightily relieved the Conservatives have held Baildon, although it was probably the intervention of the ex-Lab Indy candidate wot did it.
Ridiculous as it may sound, the Greens have won both Ilkley and Craven.
|
|