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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 17:29:26 GMT
Bradford
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 10, 2023 14:43:56 GMT
Last ones on the current boundaries. I’ll pop some info on when I have a mo
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 10, 2023 15:10:31 GMT
Last ones on the current boundaries. I’ll pop some info on when I have a mo Same case as in Wakefield.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 1, 2023 16:07:51 GMT
As promised, if late!
City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council - 90 members electing by thirds
Council after May elections: Labour 56, Conservative 16, Green 8, Liberal Democrat 5 Bradford Independents 2, Bradford South Independents 2 Ilkley Independent 1
In June a Conservative councillor was removed from the group over his views on Gay Pride and recently two Labour councillors left the group and joined the Bradford Independent group over the Labour party stance on Gaza. Thus the Council now stands as: Labour 54, Conservative 15 Green 8 Liberal democrat 5, Bradford Independents 4, Bradford South Independents 2 Ilkley Independent 1, Independent 1
Up for election this time: Labour 15, Conservative 7, Green 2, Liberal democrat 2, Bradford independents 1Bradford South Independents 2, Ilkley Independent 1
Whilst it is mathematically possible for the council to move to NOC it is vanishingly unlikely that labour will lose the 9 seats that would require.
Constituency By Constituency profiles to follow I'll do detailed stuff when the SOPN is out next year, but just some general thoughts for now. The big unknown is what (if any) effect will events in the middle east have here. Will The Bradford Independent group stand anywhere else?
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 1, 2023 16:08:08 GMT
Shipley
Three Conservative defences here with Baildon only narrowly held last year but OTOH Wharfedale was only narrowly lost by them
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 1, 2023 16:08:38 GMT
Keighley
Greens will be looking to pick up the third seat in Craven from the Cons. They were disappointed not to take Ilkley last year and presumably will go for it again. Up for election there is long standing independent Ann Hawksworth - the outcome may well depend on whether she decides to retire from the fray. Cons also have a difficult defence of their last seat in Keighly West.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 1, 2023 16:08:53 GMT
Bradford West
The only things stopping this being an all Labour bore-fest will be if the independent who came close in Manningham last year stands again and if the Greens can make it in Heaton. Not expecting either tbh
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 1, 2023 16:09:15 GMT
Bradford South
The Bradford South Independents are defending two seats theoretically, but I think there is a good chance they will not stand again. Either way labour would expect to pick up Wyke, but Queensbury might be the only realistic chance of a Conservative gain anywhere if they don't stand and split the tory vote there
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 1, 2023 16:09:27 GMT
Bradford East
Two difficult defences for Lib Dems here (Is there any other sort) Following the defection the Bradford Independents now hold all three seats in Little Horton which will probably continue
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iang
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Post by iang on Dec 1, 2023 20:47:07 GMT
Presumably it should read 7 Conservative defences above, rather than the 17 suggested
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 1, 2023 21:03:32 GMT
Bradford West The only things stopping this being an all Labour bore-fest will be if the independent who came close in Manningham last year stands again and if the Greens can make it in Heaton. Not expecting either tbh It's not so long ago that it was not that Labour and certainly not boring, and that isn't just about the inner city: Thornton & Allerton on current boundaries elected nothing but Tories until 2014, and the BNP beat Labour for second three years in a row. Now it looks solid Labour.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 1, 2023 23:20:43 GMT
Presumably it should read 7 Conservative defences above, rather than the 17 suggested yes, thanks, corrected
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 1, 2023 23:21:41 GMT
Bradford West The only things stopping this being an all Labour bore-fest will be if the independent who came close in Manningham last year stands again and if the Greens can make it in Heaton. Not expecting either tbh It's not so long ago that it was not that Labour and certainly not boring, and that isn't just about the inner city: Thornton & Allerton on current boundaries elected nothing but Tories until 2014, and the BNP beat Labour for second three years in a row. Now it looks solid Labour. indeed, Clayton too not that long ago
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 2, 2023 8:23:03 GMT
In fact in the 2004 all-ups when the current boundaries were introduced all of the West wards elected at least one Tory:
City: Lab, Con, Con Clayton & Fairweather Green: 3 Con Heaton: Con, Green, Con Manningham: Lib Dem, Lab, Con Thornton & Allerton: 3 Con Toller: Con, Lab, Con
The most recent wins by each non-Labour party in each ward are:
City: Respect in 2012, Con (two seats) in 2004 Clayton & Fairweather Green: Con in 2008 Heaton: Respect in 2012, Con in 2008, Green (one seat) in 2004 Manningham: Respect in 2012, Lib Dem in 2007, Con (one seat) in 2004 Thornton & Allerton: Con in 2012 Toller: Con in 2008
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Post by batman on Dec 2, 2023 9:18:05 GMT
Bradford West The only things stopping this being an all Labour bore-fest will be if the independent who came close in Manningham last year stands again and if the Greens can make it in Heaton. Not expecting either tbh not all of us regard an unbroken series of Labour wins as boring
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2023 14:08:17 GMT
In fact in the 2004 all-ups when the current boundaries were introduced all of the West wards elected at least one Tory: City: Lab, Con, Con Clayton & Fairweather Green: 3 Con Heaton: Con, Green, Con Manningham: Lib Dem, Lab, Con Thornton & Allerton: 3 Con Toller: Con, Lab, Con Labour winning just 3 out of 18 seats then is pretty shocking, though this was of course when the post-Iraq war electoral backlash was near its height.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 2, 2023 15:23:25 GMT
Labour winning just 3 out of 18 seats then is pretty shocking, though this was of course when the post-Iraq war electoral backlash was near its height. Marsha Singh was still alive and the MP at the time and a lot of the local kinship networks were thus aligned with the Conservative Party, and that sort of thing always shows up more in local elections due to lower turnouts.
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Post by uthacalthing on Dec 17, 2023 13:01:26 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918A bit of good news. Fewer folk in Bradford marry their cousin. The BBC gives changes in immigration rules as a reason. Presumably a big influx of Poles who dont marry their cousins like native Yorkshire folk
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 17, 2023 13:20:45 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918A bit of good news. Fewer folk in Bradford marry their cousin. The BBC gives changes in immigration rules as a reason. Presumably a big influx of Poles who dont marry their cousins like native Yorkshire folk It was a very interesting programme (tucked away on R4 of course). And shows the value of public sector employees carrying out research and educational work. The sort of people some people on here want to sack . . .
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Post by uthacalthing on Dec 17, 2023 21:05:32 GMT
It would be wholly unjustifiable to sack such good hard-working employees.
Now redundancy....... that would have to be looked at on its merits.
"The original research also demonstrated that cousin marriage roughly doubled the risk of birth defects, though they remained rare, affecting 6% of children born to cousins."
so roughly on par with the Israeli military operation in Gaza.
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