Post by Robert Waller on Aug 8, 2023 22:30:30 GMT
In 2015 the highest Conservative numerical majority, 29,916, and also the highest share of the vote for that party, 65.9%, were recorded by Ranil Jayawardena in North East Hampshire. In the next general election two years later, in 2017, Jayawardena again had the highest lead, 27,772, not quite again the ‘safest Tory seat’ but by any measure it was one of the safest, for example being in the top ten for Conservative vote share at 65.5%. In 2019, though, it slipped quite a way down the list, and there were now 135 safer seats for the blue team. That is not to say NE Hampshire is anything other than a very secure Tory division, but both results do bear explanation.
This constituency does not actually completely cover the north east corner of Hampshire. Most of that quadrant is included, but two more urban chunks are bitten out of it, and its shape somewhat resembles a question mark. Right in the corner the seat of Aldershot is to be found, tightly drawn round that military town and Farnborough, also in the borough of Rushmoor. The other incursion is Basingstoke. The largest population centre actually included in NE Hampshire is the town of Fleet, known to many only as providing the name for the first M3 service station as one heads from London towards Southampton. However, on the boundaries that pertained up to and including the 2019 election there are also overgrown villages such as Yateley (population over 20,000 in 2021), brought in from Aldershot in the 2010 boundary changes, Hook a little further down the same motorway, Odiham and Hartley Wintney. Each contributed roughly 5,000 electors. These have grown from smaller cores as they are attractive places to live in and commute from. There is also some more unspoilt and indeed truly ancient terrain. The Roman town of Silchester is included and one of the county council divisions is called Calleva after its Latin name. This is part of the small section of Basingstoke district transferred in the 2010 review; the bulk of North East Hampshire is in the Hart district.
That last fact provides the main clue to how this seat had the largest Tory majority in 2017. In the Indices of Deprivation 2015, Hart was ranked at 326 out of 326 local authorities in England. The NE Hampshire constituency is overwhelmingly owner occupied and affluent, and has almost no pockets of deprivation. It has more households with at least two cars than any other seat in the United Kingdom. It is in the top 25 for reporting ‘very good health’. It ranks 16th for those in managerial and administrative occupations. All of this suggests a rock-solid Tory stronghold as in 2017 and before. One other figure, though: NE Hampshire is 556th out of 575 in England and Wales in the list of seats on the criterion of ‘no academic qualifications’. This is a fair indicator that there will have been some Liberal Democrat appeal in the 2019 ‘Brexit election’, and it was indeed the Lib Dems who moved forwards from 12% in third place in 2017 to 25% and second in that year.
They have proved competitive on Hart council too. After the May 2023 elections the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were ties on 11 seats each, with another 10 Community Campaign (Hart) localists – exactly the same situation as in 2019. In fact Hart council has been under no overall control for most of its existence since the early 1970s, and the Conservatives last had a majority here in 2012 – though this is because of Independent and Residents group strength as well as a consistent Liberal Democrat presence. In municipal contests the Conservatives’ greatest strength is in the more rural Hartley Wintney, Odiham and Hook, the Liberal Democrats in Yateley and parts of Fleet. In Hampshire county council elections, though, the localists have had less of an impact and in 2021 the Tories won every division, including Fleet Town convincingly, except for the LD Yateley East & Blackwater (the latter half in Aldershot constituency).
The Conservatives’ lack of municipal dominance had little in the way of a counterpart in general elections until 2019, but then for the first time the Liberal Democrats did manage to exploit to an extent the demographic characteristics outlined above - that translate to the fact that this seat voted Remain in the 2016 referendum, by an estimated 54% to 46%. The very absence of deprivation also denuded NE Hampshire of pockets of strong Leave voting, and in the unusual (and maybe one-off) circumstances of 2019, meant that this seat, highest majority of all in 2017 notwithstanding, is now less ‘safe’ than, say, Portsmouth North, Waveney and Great Yarmouth and Cleethorpes, and Cannock Chase, NW Leicestershire and North Warwickshire, all of which the Tories failed to win as recently as 2005. That observation actually tells us more about the decline of Labour in Brexit favouring places than any really significant weakening of the Conservatives; but it does also suggest that after a low period in 2015-17 due to their participation in the coalition, the Liberal Democrats are back to the clear second place and 20 – 30% share that they enjoyed here up to 2010 and also that is suggested by their local election strength. The parties will probably remain in the same order, and clearly spaced out, next time.
The Boundary Commission that reported in June 2023 have made considerable changes to the north eastern quadrant of Hampshire, and part will actually cross the border with Surrey to form a new seat (Farnham & Bordon). However that constituency takes none of its territory from NE Hampshire, which is affected only indirectly in some reshuffling of its boundaries with its neighbouring Hampshire seats. Around 13% of North East’s electorate departs, to a mixture of different seats. Yateley is split, which caused some controversy in the boundary inquiry process, with its East ward is moved to Aldershot, while Yateley West stays here. A small section around The Candovers is moved to East Hampshire. Finally about 6% of NE is shifted across to NW Hampshire, around Pamber and Sherborne St John. In return, electors around Basing forming about 8% of the present Basingstoke are to join NE Hampshire.
Pete Whitehead’s notional calculations suggests all this will scarcely affect the Conservative numerical majority, but make the seat slightly safer still, probably because of the departure of Yateley East. It would take a swing of around 19% to the Liberal Democrats for it to fall.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.7% 271/575
Owner occupied 77.0% 30/575
Private rented 13.8% 495/575
Social rented 9.2% 539/575
White 93.2% 235/575
Black 0.8% 354/575
Asian 3.1% 333/575
Managerial & professional 48.8% 16/575
Routine & Semi-routine 14.2% 538/575
Degree level 43.4% 77/575
No qualifications 10.5% 556/575
Students 5.0% 404/575
General election 2019: North East Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Ranil Jayawardena 35,280 59.5 -6.0
Liberal Democrats Graham Cockarill 15,069 25.4 +13.3
Labour Barry Jones 5,760 9.7 -7.6
Green Culann Walsh 1,754 3.0 +0.4
Independent Tony Durrant 831 1.4 I
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 576 1.0
C Majority 20,211 34.1 -14.1
2019 electorate 78,954
Turnout 59,270 75.1 -2.2
Conservative hold
Swing C to LD 9.6
Boundary Changes
The new NE Hampshire seat will consist of
86.9% of NE Hampshire
8.2% of Basingstoke
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_345_North%20East%20Hampshire_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional results
2019 Notional result on new boundaries
This constituency does not actually completely cover the north east corner of Hampshire. Most of that quadrant is included, but two more urban chunks are bitten out of it, and its shape somewhat resembles a question mark. Right in the corner the seat of Aldershot is to be found, tightly drawn round that military town and Farnborough, also in the borough of Rushmoor. The other incursion is Basingstoke. The largest population centre actually included in NE Hampshire is the town of Fleet, known to many only as providing the name for the first M3 service station as one heads from London towards Southampton. However, on the boundaries that pertained up to and including the 2019 election there are also overgrown villages such as Yateley (population over 20,000 in 2021), brought in from Aldershot in the 2010 boundary changes, Hook a little further down the same motorway, Odiham and Hartley Wintney. Each contributed roughly 5,000 electors. These have grown from smaller cores as they are attractive places to live in and commute from. There is also some more unspoilt and indeed truly ancient terrain. The Roman town of Silchester is included and one of the county council divisions is called Calleva after its Latin name. This is part of the small section of Basingstoke district transferred in the 2010 review; the bulk of North East Hampshire is in the Hart district.
That last fact provides the main clue to how this seat had the largest Tory majority in 2017. In the Indices of Deprivation 2015, Hart was ranked at 326 out of 326 local authorities in England. The NE Hampshire constituency is overwhelmingly owner occupied and affluent, and has almost no pockets of deprivation. It has more households with at least two cars than any other seat in the United Kingdom. It is in the top 25 for reporting ‘very good health’. It ranks 16th for those in managerial and administrative occupations. All of this suggests a rock-solid Tory stronghold as in 2017 and before. One other figure, though: NE Hampshire is 556th out of 575 in England and Wales in the list of seats on the criterion of ‘no academic qualifications’. This is a fair indicator that there will have been some Liberal Democrat appeal in the 2019 ‘Brexit election’, and it was indeed the Lib Dems who moved forwards from 12% in third place in 2017 to 25% and second in that year.
They have proved competitive on Hart council too. After the May 2023 elections the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were ties on 11 seats each, with another 10 Community Campaign (Hart) localists – exactly the same situation as in 2019. In fact Hart council has been under no overall control for most of its existence since the early 1970s, and the Conservatives last had a majority here in 2012 – though this is because of Independent and Residents group strength as well as a consistent Liberal Democrat presence. In municipal contests the Conservatives’ greatest strength is in the more rural Hartley Wintney, Odiham and Hook, the Liberal Democrats in Yateley and parts of Fleet. In Hampshire county council elections, though, the localists have had less of an impact and in 2021 the Tories won every division, including Fleet Town convincingly, except for the LD Yateley East & Blackwater (the latter half in Aldershot constituency).
The Conservatives’ lack of municipal dominance had little in the way of a counterpart in general elections until 2019, but then for the first time the Liberal Democrats did manage to exploit to an extent the demographic characteristics outlined above - that translate to the fact that this seat voted Remain in the 2016 referendum, by an estimated 54% to 46%. The very absence of deprivation also denuded NE Hampshire of pockets of strong Leave voting, and in the unusual (and maybe one-off) circumstances of 2019, meant that this seat, highest majority of all in 2017 notwithstanding, is now less ‘safe’ than, say, Portsmouth North, Waveney and Great Yarmouth and Cleethorpes, and Cannock Chase, NW Leicestershire and North Warwickshire, all of which the Tories failed to win as recently as 2005. That observation actually tells us more about the decline of Labour in Brexit favouring places than any really significant weakening of the Conservatives; but it does also suggest that after a low period in 2015-17 due to their participation in the coalition, the Liberal Democrats are back to the clear second place and 20 – 30% share that they enjoyed here up to 2010 and also that is suggested by their local election strength. The parties will probably remain in the same order, and clearly spaced out, next time.
The Boundary Commission that reported in June 2023 have made considerable changes to the north eastern quadrant of Hampshire, and part will actually cross the border with Surrey to form a new seat (Farnham & Bordon). However that constituency takes none of its territory from NE Hampshire, which is affected only indirectly in some reshuffling of its boundaries with its neighbouring Hampshire seats. Around 13% of North East’s electorate departs, to a mixture of different seats. Yateley is split, which caused some controversy in the boundary inquiry process, with its East ward is moved to Aldershot, while Yateley West stays here. A small section around The Candovers is moved to East Hampshire. Finally about 6% of NE is shifted across to NW Hampshire, around Pamber and Sherborne St John. In return, electors around Basing forming about 8% of the present Basingstoke are to join NE Hampshire.
Pete Whitehead’s notional calculations suggests all this will scarcely affect the Conservative numerical majority, but make the seat slightly safer still, probably because of the departure of Yateley East. It would take a swing of around 19% to the Liberal Democrats for it to fall.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.7% 271/575
Owner occupied 77.0% 30/575
Private rented 13.8% 495/575
Social rented 9.2% 539/575
White 93.2% 235/575
Black 0.8% 354/575
Asian 3.1% 333/575
Managerial & professional 48.8% 16/575
Routine & Semi-routine 14.2% 538/575
Degree level 43.4% 77/575
No qualifications 10.5% 556/575
Students 5.0% 404/575
General election 2019: North East Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Ranil Jayawardena 35,280 59.5 -6.0
Liberal Democrats Graham Cockarill 15,069 25.4 +13.3
Labour Barry Jones 5,760 9.7 -7.6
Green Culann Walsh 1,754 3.0 +0.4
Independent Tony Durrant 831 1.4 I
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 576 1.0
C Majority 20,211 34.1 -14.1
2019 electorate 78,954
Turnout 59,270 75.1 -2.2
Conservative hold
Swing C to LD 9.6
Boundary Changes
The new NE Hampshire seat will consist of
86.9% of NE Hampshire
8.2% of Basingstoke
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_345_North%20East%20Hampshire_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional results
| Con | 33739 | 61.3% |
| LD | 13402 | 24.4% |
| Lab | 5556 | 10.1% |
| Grn | 1662 | 3.0% |
| Oth | 663 | 1.2% |
| Majority | 20337 | 37.0% |