Post by Robert Waller on Aug 8, 2023 19:01:34 GMT
In December 2019 the Conservative gain of the Westminster constituency of Wrexham was probably the most cited example in Welsh instances of the fall of Labour’s so-called ‘Red Wall’, which actually means little except that they lost a number of seats they had held for a very long time – in the case of Wrexham, since 1935, when they regained it from the Liberals after an alternation in tenure since their first victory back in 1922. These ‘Red Wall’ seats actually have little in common, nor did they ever form a contiguous ‘wall’. Wrexham, for example, lies entirely inland in North Wales, historically being placed in the county of Denbighshire, then in Clwyd, before being granted a local government unitary authority with its name in 1996. What is more, its eventual fall to the Tories in 2019 was highly predictable, the culmination of a long trend, and it did not require a particularly large swing as it was already clearly highly marginal and vulnerable.
Labour’s lead in the Wrexham seat fell at every election between 1997 and 2017, with the nominal exception of that last year, and even then, when the surprise Corbyn surge was generally moving towards them as Theresa May’s overall majority crumbled, the majority in Wrexham rose by precisely one vote from 1,831 to 1,832. This was far from the situation back in successful Conservative years such as, say, 1959 when Labour won Wrexham by nearly 13,000, or 1970 (majority 15,440). The reason for this secular trend is fairly clear: the change in the nature of the local economy, with the decline of heavy and extractive industry and its replacement by a wide variety of less strongly unionized and less proletarian class-conscious employment. The Industrial Revolution came early to the Wrexham area, with the establishment of iron working by ‘Iron Mad’ John Wilkinson in the 18th century, which later transmogrified into the great Brymbo steelworks (1796 to closure in 1990). Wrexham was also the centre of the North Wales coalfield, which at its peak in 1913 produced 3 million tons a year and employed 10,000 men. The pits included Gresford, the site of the explosion in 1934 that killed 266 workers. But by 1968 there were only two collieries left and the last one, Bersham, closed in 1986. It might also be pointed out that some of these areas such as Brymbo were included in the Clwyd South constituency on its creation in 1997. The power of the Nonconformist chapel has also declined over the decades (the buildings can still be found, especially in the large ex-industrial villages ringing the town of Wrexham, but usually re-purposed).
Wrexham is now home to an enormous industrial estate and under present boundaries actually still ranks in the top 10 constituencies for employment in manufacturing in the UK. But these enterprises are not mines or steelworks. Rather we find food manufacturers such as Kelloggs and Cadbury, biopharmaceuticals like Wockhardt and Ipsen, large agricultural machines (JCB) and small breweries (Wrexham Lager) and even a new prison, HMP Berwyn. Such employment is less fertile for union organisation, less full time, less male – and less inclined to the Labour movement. Therefore when Sarah Atherton became Wrexham’s first ever Conservative MP in 2019, on a close to national average swing of 5.8%, it was really no great surprise.
This was very much a two horse race. Although there is an alternative name, Wrecsam (the Welsh language misses some letters including x), the last time the Census asked about what proportion spoke it by constituency, the figure in this seat was exactly 10%, and only 12.9% in the Wrexham local authority were able to speak Welsh in 2011. This is borne out by the Plaid Cymru vote share, which has never exceeded 12.2% (1959, in a three way contest, and on boundaries including more outlying villages) and was a mere 6.4% in 2019 – and even this was sufficient to beat The Liberal Democrats, Brexit party and Greens. Only in 2005 and 2010 did the Liberal Democrats (narrowly) manage to nose ahead of the Conservatives and take a distant second place.
There are of course political variations within the current Wrexham seat, though the pattern is obscured by a large number of Independent candidatures in local elections. Generally however it can be seen the Conservatives do best in the borough contests in the new private estates for example in north east Wrexham, where Borras Park ward is over 94% owner-occupied and taken by the Conservatives unopposed in 2022, and also in overwhelmingly English speaking villages near the national border, and, perhaps oddly, in Gresford the site of the 1930s disaster. Labour’s strongest areas are the council estate wards of south east Wrexham (the huge 1950s Caia Park development covers parts of five wards) like Wynnstay (72% social rented still in 2011) and Hermitage (88% Labour in a straight fight with the Tories in May 2022) as well as some of the ex-mining villages like Coedpoeth (presently in Clwyd S). Gwersyllt is an isolated Plaid Cymru stronghold.
No apology needs to be made for a consideration of the forthcoming boundary changes, which are more extensive in Wales than any other part of the United Kingdom, due to its long-term over-representation at Westminster. Wrexham’s electorate was less than 50,000 in December 2019, when the average across the UK was over 70,000. The proposals of the Boundary Commission for Wales recommend the addition of around 25,000 electors from Clwyd South, one of the eight constituencies in Wales that are effectively to be abolished. This represents almost half of the total electorate of that seat (most of the rest of which is paired with parts of the former county of Powys in a suggested Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr, the latter including small towns like Ruabon, Chirk and Corwen). Among the territory to be placed in the Wrexham seat are the rural wards east towards the English border - Bronington, Overton, and Marchwiel; and to the west the more strongly Welsh culture and former industrial heritage of Brymbo and Minera wards, including New Brighton. In some ways this is a recreation of the larger Wrexham seat that existed back before the creation of Clwyd South in the first place.
What will be the political impact? Probably fairly neutral, as Clwyd South also switched from Labour to Conservative in 2019, with a majority between 2,000 and 3,000, just like Wrexham. The half of the seat to be added to Wrexham is not very dissimilar electorally to that going into Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, where Labour has tended to lead in Ruabon and Chirk, for example, although it probably is slightly more Conservative than that half. Overall, the new enlarged Wrexham will be decidedly more rural, somewhat less working class in occupation, lower down the list in terms of manufacturing industry slightly more educated to degree level, with a little more owner occupied and a little less social rented housing. The 'official' notional Conservative majority at 3,939 is nearly double the actual 2,131 in 2019, but this does still not make it significantly harder for Labour to regain, as the swing needed is calculated to be just over 4% rather than 3% on the old boundaries.
Wrexham was one of the successful applicants for city status in the handouts associated with Queen Elizabeth II's Platinum Jubilee. It has long been the largest urban community in North Wales, and with 65,000 residents it is now out-populated in the whole country only by Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, even if Rhondda (now down to 62,000) is considered as a single unit. It is undoubtedly a significant centre; for example Wrexham FC has been promoted to the Football league for the 2023-24 season (having since February 2021 they have been deemed 'Hollywood' with the financially dramatically beneficial new ownership of North American actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney), and their Racecourse Ground has often been used for international matches (never mind the self-publicising ability of an abrasive son of Wrexham, Robbie Savage). Wrexham is well connected to transport networks and, as noted, a substantial industrial centre.
It seems fitting that Wrexham may now be regarded as a key marginal. Labour will need to recapture it if they are to form a UK government again. This seems eminently possible. For example in the 2021 elections for the Senedd, in a seat very similar to that for Westminster, their candidate Lesley Griffiths held on, with a majority of 1,352, barely changed compared with the previous contest in 2016. The newly minted city, with its enlarged constituency, will most likely continue to see a vital two-party battle whenever the next general election arrives.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.3% 233/575
Owner occupied 63.5% 346/575
Private rented 16.9% 338/575
Social rented 19.6% 160/575
White 95.4% 166/575
Black 0.7% 380/575
Asian 2.0% 386/575
Managerial & professional 28.3% 410/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.5% 96/575
Degree level 30.2% 334/575
No qualifications 20.4% 172/575
Students 6.3% 220/575
General Election 2019: Wrexham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Sarah Atherton 15,199 45.3 +1.6
Labour Co-op Mary Wimbury 13,068 39.0 ―9.9
Plaid Cymru Carrie Harper 2,151 6.4 +1.4
Liberal Democrats Tim Sly 1,447 4.3 +1.8
Brexit Party Ian Berkeley-Hurst 1,222 3.6 N/A
Green Duncan Rees 445 1.3 N/A
C Majority 2,131 6.3
2019 electorate 49,734
Turnout 33,532 67.4 ―2.2
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 5.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Wrexham seat will consist of
100% of Wrexham
39.2% of Clwyd South
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Labour’s lead in the Wrexham seat fell at every election between 1997 and 2017, with the nominal exception of that last year, and even then, when the surprise Corbyn surge was generally moving towards them as Theresa May’s overall majority crumbled, the majority in Wrexham rose by precisely one vote from 1,831 to 1,832. This was far from the situation back in successful Conservative years such as, say, 1959 when Labour won Wrexham by nearly 13,000, or 1970 (majority 15,440). The reason for this secular trend is fairly clear: the change in the nature of the local economy, with the decline of heavy and extractive industry and its replacement by a wide variety of less strongly unionized and less proletarian class-conscious employment. The Industrial Revolution came early to the Wrexham area, with the establishment of iron working by ‘Iron Mad’ John Wilkinson in the 18th century, which later transmogrified into the great Brymbo steelworks (1796 to closure in 1990). Wrexham was also the centre of the North Wales coalfield, which at its peak in 1913 produced 3 million tons a year and employed 10,000 men. The pits included Gresford, the site of the explosion in 1934 that killed 266 workers. But by 1968 there were only two collieries left and the last one, Bersham, closed in 1986. It might also be pointed out that some of these areas such as Brymbo were included in the Clwyd South constituency on its creation in 1997. The power of the Nonconformist chapel has also declined over the decades (the buildings can still be found, especially in the large ex-industrial villages ringing the town of Wrexham, but usually re-purposed).
Wrexham is now home to an enormous industrial estate and under present boundaries actually still ranks in the top 10 constituencies for employment in manufacturing in the UK. But these enterprises are not mines or steelworks. Rather we find food manufacturers such as Kelloggs and Cadbury, biopharmaceuticals like Wockhardt and Ipsen, large agricultural machines (JCB) and small breweries (Wrexham Lager) and even a new prison, HMP Berwyn. Such employment is less fertile for union organisation, less full time, less male – and less inclined to the Labour movement. Therefore when Sarah Atherton became Wrexham’s first ever Conservative MP in 2019, on a close to national average swing of 5.8%, it was really no great surprise.
This was very much a two horse race. Although there is an alternative name, Wrecsam (the Welsh language misses some letters including x), the last time the Census asked about what proportion spoke it by constituency, the figure in this seat was exactly 10%, and only 12.9% in the Wrexham local authority were able to speak Welsh in 2011. This is borne out by the Plaid Cymru vote share, which has never exceeded 12.2% (1959, in a three way contest, and on boundaries including more outlying villages) and was a mere 6.4% in 2019 – and even this was sufficient to beat The Liberal Democrats, Brexit party and Greens. Only in 2005 and 2010 did the Liberal Democrats (narrowly) manage to nose ahead of the Conservatives and take a distant second place.
There are of course political variations within the current Wrexham seat, though the pattern is obscured by a large number of Independent candidatures in local elections. Generally however it can be seen the Conservatives do best in the borough contests in the new private estates for example in north east Wrexham, where Borras Park ward is over 94% owner-occupied and taken by the Conservatives unopposed in 2022, and also in overwhelmingly English speaking villages near the national border, and, perhaps oddly, in Gresford the site of the 1930s disaster. Labour’s strongest areas are the council estate wards of south east Wrexham (the huge 1950s Caia Park development covers parts of five wards) like Wynnstay (72% social rented still in 2011) and Hermitage (88% Labour in a straight fight with the Tories in May 2022) as well as some of the ex-mining villages like Coedpoeth (presently in Clwyd S). Gwersyllt is an isolated Plaid Cymru stronghold.
No apology needs to be made for a consideration of the forthcoming boundary changes, which are more extensive in Wales than any other part of the United Kingdom, due to its long-term over-representation at Westminster. Wrexham’s electorate was less than 50,000 in December 2019, when the average across the UK was over 70,000. The proposals of the Boundary Commission for Wales recommend the addition of around 25,000 electors from Clwyd South, one of the eight constituencies in Wales that are effectively to be abolished. This represents almost half of the total electorate of that seat (most of the rest of which is paired with parts of the former county of Powys in a suggested Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr, the latter including small towns like Ruabon, Chirk and Corwen). Among the territory to be placed in the Wrexham seat are the rural wards east towards the English border - Bronington, Overton, and Marchwiel; and to the west the more strongly Welsh culture and former industrial heritage of Brymbo and Minera wards, including New Brighton. In some ways this is a recreation of the larger Wrexham seat that existed back before the creation of Clwyd South in the first place.
What will be the political impact? Probably fairly neutral, as Clwyd South also switched from Labour to Conservative in 2019, with a majority between 2,000 and 3,000, just like Wrexham. The half of the seat to be added to Wrexham is not very dissimilar electorally to that going into Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, where Labour has tended to lead in Ruabon and Chirk, for example, although it probably is slightly more Conservative than that half. Overall, the new enlarged Wrexham will be decidedly more rural, somewhat less working class in occupation, lower down the list in terms of manufacturing industry slightly more educated to degree level, with a little more owner occupied and a little less social rented housing. The 'official' notional Conservative majority at 3,939 is nearly double the actual 2,131 in 2019, but this does still not make it significantly harder for Labour to regain, as the swing needed is calculated to be just over 4% rather than 3% on the old boundaries.
Wrexham was one of the successful applicants for city status in the handouts associated with Queen Elizabeth II's Platinum Jubilee. It has long been the largest urban community in North Wales, and with 65,000 residents it is now out-populated in the whole country only by Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, even if Rhondda (now down to 62,000) is considered as a single unit. It is undoubtedly a significant centre; for example Wrexham FC has been promoted to the Football league for the 2023-24 season (having since February 2021 they have been deemed 'Hollywood' with the financially dramatically beneficial new ownership of North American actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney), and their Racecourse Ground has often been used for international matches (never mind the self-publicising ability of an abrasive son of Wrexham, Robbie Savage). Wrexham is well connected to transport networks and, as noted, a substantial industrial centre.
It seems fitting that Wrexham may now be regarded as a key marginal. Labour will need to recapture it if they are to form a UK government again. This seems eminently possible. For example in the 2021 elections for the Senedd, in a seat very similar to that for Westminster, their candidate Lesley Griffiths held on, with a majority of 1,352, barely changed compared with the previous contest in 2016. The newly minted city, with its enlarged constituency, will most likely continue to see a vital two-party battle whenever the next general election arrives.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.3% 233/575
Owner occupied 63.5% 346/575
Private rented 16.9% 338/575
Social rented 19.6% 160/575
White 95.4% 166/575
Black 0.7% 380/575
Asian 2.0% 386/575
Managerial & professional 28.3% 410/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.5% 96/575
Degree level 30.2% 334/575
No qualifications 20.4% 172/575
Students 6.3% 220/575
General Election 2019: Wrexham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Sarah Atherton 15,199 45.3 +1.6
Labour Co-op Mary Wimbury 13,068 39.0 ―9.9
Plaid Cymru Carrie Harper 2,151 6.4 +1.4
Liberal Democrats Tim Sly 1,447 4.3 +1.8
Brexit Party Ian Berkeley-Hurst 1,222 3.6 N/A
Green Duncan Rees 445 1.3 N/A
C Majority 2,131 6.3
2019 electorate 49,734
Turnout 33,532 67.4 ―2.2
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 5.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Wrexham seat will consist of
100% of Wrexham
39.2% of Clwyd South
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 21933 | 46.5% |
| Lab | 17994 | 38.2% |
| Plaid Cymru | 2960 | 6.3% |
| LD | 2013 | 4.3% |
| Brexit | 1778 | 3.8% |
| Green | 445 | 0.9% |
| Majority | 3939 | 8.4% |