Post by Robert Waller on Aug 8, 2023 13:14:51 GMT
The City of Durham constituency and its predecessors have always had some fascinating contrasts. On the one hand there is the historic, attractive eponymous city, with its magnificent cathedral, set above a loop of the Wear at the heart of one of the leading dioceses of the Established Church of England, and also a collegiate university widely regarded as more preferable for generations of students than anywhere but Oxbridge, and certainly still commanding very high entry grade standards. The atmosphere here is laden with the patina of tradition, medieval splendour and the sophistication of academe. On the other hand, the surrounding district was long dominated by that most proletarian of environments and cultures, the heart of the Durham coalfield. The two elements have rarely mixed, except perhaps for the annual Durham Miners gala which congregates in the city in July. In political terms the constituency has often also tended to have two faces as well.
The predominant strand has been the Labour tradition of the coalfield. For all its distinction, Durham itself is a smallish city with a population of scarcely over 20,000 at the time of the 2011 census (beware higher estimates based on a wider urban definition). Therefore the seat name is misleading. The electorate is spread around what elsewhere might be called Mid or Central County Durham. There is plenty of countryside, but the economic base used to be coal. To the west of Durham city stretches the Deerness Valley, including communities such as Esh Winning and New Brancepeth, Ushaw Moor and Bearpark. To the south-west is Brandon (a name always coupled with Byshottles, for example in an Urban District Council that existed before 1974, though it is very hard to pin down actually where Byshottles is or may have been). Continuing round, like examining spokes on a wheel, to the south east we find Shincliffe, High Shincliffe, Bowburn and Coxhoe. These are all ex-mining villages, though the dates of closure range from the 19th century in the case of Shincliffe Colliery to 1967 at Bowburn. Due east is Sherburn (not Sherburn in Elmet, which is in Yorkshire), where the two mines closed in the 1930s. North east is West Rainton, where mining had been recorded from the 12th century to the closure of the last pit in 1968. Due north is the quaintly named Pity Me. North west is Witton Gilbert. Therefore the urban core of this constituency is surrounded in all directions with communities that may appear rural but in fact have an industrial heritage.
Closer in, there is a substantial suburban population as places which were once separate have seen considerable housing development that has resulted in a continuous built up area: Gilesgate Moor to the east of Durham, Framwellgate Moor to the north, Neville’s Cross to the south west. It is by including all these, with their modern predominantly private housing estates, that ‘Greater Durham’ can be credited with a population of nearly 50,000.
Election results reflect the diversity within this parliamentary division. Overall it has the characteristics of a coalfield constituency. Since 1918, counting just plain ‘Durham’ as the predecessor of the City of Durham seat before the renaming in 1983, Labour were beaten only in the ‘coalition’ elections of 1918 and 1931, and in both cases by narrow margins – 218 votes in the post World War One Lloyd George ‘coupon’ election, and by a mere 270 in the ‘Ramsay MacDonald’ 1931 landslide, when Labour only retained around 50 seats. It therefore is one of the class of constituencies held by Labour since 1935 – but unlike several of the ‘Red Wall’ casualties of 2019, it still gave the party a majority of just over 5,000 in that grim year for the red team.
Having said that though, the City of Durham has not behaved typically for an ex-mining seat since 1983. For a start, in that year the newly minted SDP took a share of 32.5% and came within 1,973 votes of winning. Then in 2005 and 2010 the Liberal Democrats made the City of Durham look distinctly marginal, losing only by a little over 3,000 on each occasion. In fact, it is the continuing Liberal Democrat strength that helped to save the seat from coming close to the fate of Bishop Auckland and NW Durham in December 2019. Compared with 2017, it was the Liberal Democrats who increased their share more, by 6.3% while the Tories only advanced by 1.9% - compare NW Durham, for example, where the Conservatives went up by 7.4% and the LD share actually dropped. This is certainly connected with the 2016 referendum. The City of Durham voted to Remain by over 56%, while in NW Durham the verdict was to Leave by 55%-45%. Clearly the presence of the university and also of a relatively high number of those in professional occupations has a notable impact on the political attitudes of the seat as a whole. This is highly ironic in a way, as famously the prominent Labour politician Herbert Morrison dismissed the possibility of the UK joining the European Coal and Steel Community, the precursor to the EEC Common Market, in 1952 by saying the ‘”Durham miners won’t wear it”.
However, the Liberal Democrat strength within the City of Durham constituency predates the climax of the European issue and extends beyond it, as their general election performance in 2005-2010 indicates – and may also most emphatically be seen in more recent local government elections. In the most recent contests for the unitary Durham county council, in May 2021, they won both within the city and outside. In the former they were successful both in the Elvet & Gilesgate ward in the heart of the city, and, in the suburbs, Neville’s Cross, Belmont, and Framwellgate & Newton Hall. What is more, they could even win in parts of the ‘coalfield’ periphery: Esh & Witton Gilbert, for example, and the oddly named Durham South ward, which in fact is entirely composed of villages such as the Shincliffes. Labour’s victories were confined to the Deerness Valley, Sherburn, Willington & Hunwick, and taking one of the two councillors in Brandon, the other being the sole Green elected in the whole of Durham in 2021.
This mixed pattern may also be seen in the demographics within the seat. The Belmont & Carrville MSOA area, for example was 82% owner occupied in the most recent census figures (2021), whereas over 30% social housing is recorded in Brandon and 40% in Gilesgate Moor & Old Durham, east of Durham city centre. The most central MSOA of all, though, ‘Durham City’, has a plurality of private rented housing. This is due to the mass presence of students, who make up 20% of the entire over-18 population in the seat, overwhelmingly concentrated in Durham itself. Overall, the City of Durham constituency is not only in the top 20 in England and Wales for full time students, but in the top 10 for employment in education; it is known that in addition to those at Durham University itself, quite a few who work at universities in Newcastle also choose to reside here.
The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England suggested significant changes affecting this constituency. The central core around Durham city itself would have remained, of course; but otherwise there would be a lot of movement. Coxhoe ward, including Bowburn, would be donated to Sedgefield. North West Durham would have received much of the western half of the existing City of Durham seat, in the form of the Deerness Valley, Esh and Witton Gilbert. Bishop Auckland would take Brandon. All in all, 40% of the electorate of the City of Durham constituency would have been removed. In return, and in a significant shift of the centre of gravity of the seat eastwards, City of Durham would now have included 40% of the existing Houghton and Sunderland South, essentially the part referenced by the first half of that constituency name: Houghton le Spring, Hetton-le-Hole, and Copt Hall.
However the revised recommendations published in November 2022, which were confirmed without alteration in the final report in June 2023, suggested much less change to the City of Durham constituency boundaries. It was acknowledged that Sherburn and the Durham South wards have strong links to the city itself (Durham South had been suggested for removal in the Labour Party's counter-proposal). Nor does Brandon go to Bishop Auckland. No Sunderland wards are included. Deerness, Esh and Witton Gilbert are now also to be retained, rather than moved to NW Durham; indeed the boundary now is even further westwards in the Esh / Quebec Cornsay Colliery direction and south west to include Willington & Hunwick as these areas are added from NW Durham. Coxhoe is still transferred out, though, to the renamed Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor.
Overall the political impact of the 2023 boundary changes is now fairly neutral, as Coxhoe ward was topped by Independents in the May 2021 unitary authority elections, though essentially demonstrating Labour preferences in general elections, while local results suggest including more of the Esh ward would slightly benefit the Liberal Democrats, if anyone, but Willington & Hunwick are strongly Labour.
As the Conservatives have little appeal at present in either the city or the ex-coalfield parts of the constituency, a larger Labour majority is the most likely outcome at the next general election, and it is possible that the Liberal Democrats may be able to build on their local election strength in the seat to recover the second place they achieved in the three elections before they joined the Cameron coalition. Then in 2015 their share plummeted from nearly 38% to just over 11% and they dropped to 4th place, even behind UKIP. They were third in 2017 and 2019. The after-effects of that decision in the City of Durham (and many, many more) results may make them think twice about the possibility of making such an arrangement if Starmer’s Labour becomes the largest party but without an overall majority.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.3% 285/575
Owner occupied 62.8% 356/575
Private rented 18.5% 271/575
Social rented 18.7% 187/575
White 92.3% 254/575
Black 0.7% 378/575
Asian 4.1% 294/575
Managerial & professional 28.5% 397/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.0% 388/575
Degree level 32.8% 268/575
No qualifications 15.8% 387/575
Students 20.8% 19/575
General election 2019: City of Durham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mary Foy 20,531 42.0 –13.4
Conservative William Morgan 15,506 31.7 +1.9
Liberal Democrats Amanda Hopgood 7,935 16.2 +6.3
Brexit Party Lesley Wright 3,252 6.7 New
Green Jonathan Elmer 1,635 3.3 +1.7
Lab Majority 5,025 10.3 –15.3
2019 electorate 71,271
Turnout 48,859 68.6 +0.7
Labour hold
Swings
7.7 Lab to C
9.8 Lab to LD
Boundary Changes
The new City of Durham seat will consist of
85.6% of City of Durham
16.1% of NW Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_187_City%20of%20Durham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
The predominant strand has been the Labour tradition of the coalfield. For all its distinction, Durham itself is a smallish city with a population of scarcely over 20,000 at the time of the 2011 census (beware higher estimates based on a wider urban definition). Therefore the seat name is misleading. The electorate is spread around what elsewhere might be called Mid or Central County Durham. There is plenty of countryside, but the economic base used to be coal. To the west of Durham city stretches the Deerness Valley, including communities such as Esh Winning and New Brancepeth, Ushaw Moor and Bearpark. To the south-west is Brandon (a name always coupled with Byshottles, for example in an Urban District Council that existed before 1974, though it is very hard to pin down actually where Byshottles is or may have been). Continuing round, like examining spokes on a wheel, to the south east we find Shincliffe, High Shincliffe, Bowburn and Coxhoe. These are all ex-mining villages, though the dates of closure range from the 19th century in the case of Shincliffe Colliery to 1967 at Bowburn. Due east is Sherburn (not Sherburn in Elmet, which is in Yorkshire), where the two mines closed in the 1930s. North east is West Rainton, where mining had been recorded from the 12th century to the closure of the last pit in 1968. Due north is the quaintly named Pity Me. North west is Witton Gilbert. Therefore the urban core of this constituency is surrounded in all directions with communities that may appear rural but in fact have an industrial heritage.
Closer in, there is a substantial suburban population as places which were once separate have seen considerable housing development that has resulted in a continuous built up area: Gilesgate Moor to the east of Durham, Framwellgate Moor to the north, Neville’s Cross to the south west. It is by including all these, with their modern predominantly private housing estates, that ‘Greater Durham’ can be credited with a population of nearly 50,000.
Election results reflect the diversity within this parliamentary division. Overall it has the characteristics of a coalfield constituency. Since 1918, counting just plain ‘Durham’ as the predecessor of the City of Durham seat before the renaming in 1983, Labour were beaten only in the ‘coalition’ elections of 1918 and 1931, and in both cases by narrow margins – 218 votes in the post World War One Lloyd George ‘coupon’ election, and by a mere 270 in the ‘Ramsay MacDonald’ 1931 landslide, when Labour only retained around 50 seats. It therefore is one of the class of constituencies held by Labour since 1935 – but unlike several of the ‘Red Wall’ casualties of 2019, it still gave the party a majority of just over 5,000 in that grim year for the red team.
Having said that though, the City of Durham has not behaved typically for an ex-mining seat since 1983. For a start, in that year the newly minted SDP took a share of 32.5% and came within 1,973 votes of winning. Then in 2005 and 2010 the Liberal Democrats made the City of Durham look distinctly marginal, losing only by a little over 3,000 on each occasion. In fact, it is the continuing Liberal Democrat strength that helped to save the seat from coming close to the fate of Bishop Auckland and NW Durham in December 2019. Compared with 2017, it was the Liberal Democrats who increased their share more, by 6.3% while the Tories only advanced by 1.9% - compare NW Durham, for example, where the Conservatives went up by 7.4% and the LD share actually dropped. This is certainly connected with the 2016 referendum. The City of Durham voted to Remain by over 56%, while in NW Durham the verdict was to Leave by 55%-45%. Clearly the presence of the university and also of a relatively high number of those in professional occupations has a notable impact on the political attitudes of the seat as a whole. This is highly ironic in a way, as famously the prominent Labour politician Herbert Morrison dismissed the possibility of the UK joining the European Coal and Steel Community, the precursor to the EEC Common Market, in 1952 by saying the ‘”Durham miners won’t wear it”.
However, the Liberal Democrat strength within the City of Durham constituency predates the climax of the European issue and extends beyond it, as their general election performance in 2005-2010 indicates – and may also most emphatically be seen in more recent local government elections. In the most recent contests for the unitary Durham county council, in May 2021, they won both within the city and outside. In the former they were successful both in the Elvet & Gilesgate ward in the heart of the city, and, in the suburbs, Neville’s Cross, Belmont, and Framwellgate & Newton Hall. What is more, they could even win in parts of the ‘coalfield’ periphery: Esh & Witton Gilbert, for example, and the oddly named Durham South ward, which in fact is entirely composed of villages such as the Shincliffes. Labour’s victories were confined to the Deerness Valley, Sherburn, Willington & Hunwick, and taking one of the two councillors in Brandon, the other being the sole Green elected in the whole of Durham in 2021.
This mixed pattern may also be seen in the demographics within the seat. The Belmont & Carrville MSOA area, for example was 82% owner occupied in the most recent census figures (2021), whereas over 30% social housing is recorded in Brandon and 40% in Gilesgate Moor & Old Durham, east of Durham city centre. The most central MSOA of all, though, ‘Durham City’, has a plurality of private rented housing. This is due to the mass presence of students, who make up 20% of the entire over-18 population in the seat, overwhelmingly concentrated in Durham itself. Overall, the City of Durham constituency is not only in the top 20 in England and Wales for full time students, but in the top 10 for employment in education; it is known that in addition to those at Durham University itself, quite a few who work at universities in Newcastle also choose to reside here.
The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England suggested significant changes affecting this constituency. The central core around Durham city itself would have remained, of course; but otherwise there would be a lot of movement. Coxhoe ward, including Bowburn, would be donated to Sedgefield. North West Durham would have received much of the western half of the existing City of Durham seat, in the form of the Deerness Valley, Esh and Witton Gilbert. Bishop Auckland would take Brandon. All in all, 40% of the electorate of the City of Durham constituency would have been removed. In return, and in a significant shift of the centre of gravity of the seat eastwards, City of Durham would now have included 40% of the existing Houghton and Sunderland South, essentially the part referenced by the first half of that constituency name: Houghton le Spring, Hetton-le-Hole, and Copt Hall.
However the revised recommendations published in November 2022, which were confirmed without alteration in the final report in June 2023, suggested much less change to the City of Durham constituency boundaries. It was acknowledged that Sherburn and the Durham South wards have strong links to the city itself (Durham South had been suggested for removal in the Labour Party's counter-proposal). Nor does Brandon go to Bishop Auckland. No Sunderland wards are included. Deerness, Esh and Witton Gilbert are now also to be retained, rather than moved to NW Durham; indeed the boundary now is even further westwards in the Esh / Quebec Cornsay Colliery direction and south west to include Willington & Hunwick as these areas are added from NW Durham. Coxhoe is still transferred out, though, to the renamed Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor.
Overall the political impact of the 2023 boundary changes is now fairly neutral, as Coxhoe ward was topped by Independents in the May 2021 unitary authority elections, though essentially demonstrating Labour preferences in general elections, while local results suggest including more of the Esh ward would slightly benefit the Liberal Democrats, if anyone, but Willington & Hunwick are strongly Labour.
As the Conservatives have little appeal at present in either the city or the ex-coalfield parts of the constituency, a larger Labour majority is the most likely outcome at the next general election, and it is possible that the Liberal Democrats may be able to build on their local election strength in the seat to recover the second place they achieved in the three elections before they joined the Cameron coalition. Then in 2015 their share plummeted from nearly 38% to just over 11% and they dropped to 4th place, even behind UKIP. They were third in 2017 and 2019. The after-effects of that decision in the City of Durham (and many, many more) results may make them think twice about the possibility of making such an arrangement if Starmer’s Labour becomes the largest party but without an overall majority.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.3% 285/575
Owner occupied 62.8% 356/575
Private rented 18.5% 271/575
Social rented 18.7% 187/575
White 92.3% 254/575
Black 0.7% 378/575
Asian 4.1% 294/575
Managerial & professional 28.5% 397/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.0% 388/575
Degree level 32.8% 268/575
No qualifications 15.8% 387/575
Students 20.8% 19/575
General election 2019: City of Durham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mary Foy 20,531 42.0 –13.4
Conservative William Morgan 15,506 31.7 +1.9
Liberal Democrats Amanda Hopgood 7,935 16.2 +6.3
Brexit Party Lesley Wright 3,252 6.7 New
Green Jonathan Elmer 1,635 3.3 +1.7
Lab Majority 5,025 10.3 –15.3
2019 electorate 71,271
Turnout 48,859 68.6 +0.7
Labour hold
Swings
7.7 Lab to C
9.8 Lab to LD
Boundary Changes
The new City of Durham seat will consist of
85.6% of City of Durham
16.1% of NW Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_187_City%20of%20Durham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 20997 | 40.9% |
| Con | 16340 | 30.9% |
| LD | 8686 | 16.9% |
| Brexit | 3382 | 6.6% |
| Green | 1688 | 3.3% |
| Oth | 196 | 0.4% |
| Majority | 4657 | 9.1% |