Post by Robert Waller on Aug 7, 2023 22:36:57 GMT
In the 2023 boundary review, the county of Hampshire gains half a seat. How is this possible? Because one seat now crosses the county boundary with Surrey, as Hampshire’s electorate when the Commission began its work merited somewhat over 18 constituencies, and Surrey a little over 11 – so they have been awarded 30 between them. The cross-county border seat is to be Farnham & Bordon, the former representing Surrey and the latter part of Hampshire. However another way to look at it is that some electoral element of Hampshire must have lost that section, and that seat is East Hampshire, 34% of which enters the new hybrid constituency. As a result, though there is still an East Hampshire seat, it has considerably different boundaries.
Firstly, though, it might be thought that Bordon is a rather odd description of that missing third of the present East Hampshire given that none of the seven wards listed have that name in their title. Indeed three of them are named as sub-units of a place called Whtehill. Looking at a ward map, the community that undoubtedly does exist called Bordon is spread across Whitehill wards. This mystery is connected with the fact that Whitehill is the parish in which Bordon has grown up – it is an older name, and still used for the local government wards. Lindford ward is also part of the Bordon built-up area. The other wards which depart from East Hampshire parliamentary constituency are all spread along each side of the A3 as it progresses north east towards Surrey then London: Bramshott & Liphook, Headley and Grayshott, which almost reaches Hindhead and the Devil’s Punchbowl, notable Surrey landmarks, lofty (for the South East) on the Greensand Ridge.
The loss of over 25,000 voters to Farnham & Bordon means that compensation for East Hampshire has to be found elsewhere. This is chiefly in the form of the wards of East Hampshire around Horndean which had been shifted into in the Meon Valley constituency on its creation in 2005 and are now to be returned as Meon Valley is abolished and split up. There are also small segments of North East Hampshire (The Candovers) and North West Hampshire due to ward boundary adjustments. Therefore overall the centre of gravity of the East Hampshire constituency has again moved southwards, having tracked north in the review that came into force in 2010.
The two best known communities remain as they have been since the boundary changes before that, in 1997. They are Alton (population around 19,500 in 2021) and Petersfield (15,000), which gave its name to the predecessor constituency to East Hampshire before its creation in 1983, and which had existed since at least the 16th century as a parliamentary borough, and which had been Conservative without a break since 1892. The Liberals here were done in by Gladstone’s Irish Home Bill in the mid 1880s, though they failed to regain Petersfield by just 96 votes in their landslide year of 1906. Alton had actually been placed in the Winchester constituency until 1997, and shares some of that seat's Liberal Democrat tendencies. Of its seven East Hampshire district wards, the Liberal Democrats won five in May 2023, and Labour won one, Alton Eastbrook (their only representation on the council). In Petersfield the LD success has generally been more recent, but they gained four district councillors in the town in 2023, all gains from the Tories.
The Conservatives held most of the rural wards and remained the largest party on East Hampshire council, but lost overall control. This was an improvement for the opposition parties compared with May 2021, when the Conservatives won all the county council divisions within East Hampshire district except Alton Town and Whitehill/Bordon/Lindford, which was held by a localist Community candidate – but is to be transferred out of the constituency anyway. In the Horndean section, travelling in the other direction, into the East Hampshire seat, the Conservatives won very easily in the county contest in 2021 (oddly that county division is called Catherington, not Horndean) but the picture was more mixed in May 2023, with three Tories, two LDs and one Green elected to the district council.
In general elections, the Liberal Democrats have advanced somewhat, as they regained second place in the 2019 general election having been third behind Labour in 2017 – and third behind UKIP in 2015. They were still a massive 19,696 behind the former Education Secretary and current Prisons, Parole and Probation Minister Damian Hinds, though. Despite their strength in local elections particularly in the towns they are still a long, long way behind in East Hampshire constituency.
The political tone is, perhaps, captured best by the villages: very much of the heart-of-England nature, though off the tourist track with two exceptions, one major and one minor: here are Jane Austen’s Chawton and the naturalist Gilbert White’s Selborne, the latter deserving to be better known, delightfully set among the East Hampshire hangers (deeply wooded hills). In general elections all this territory is indeed conservative and Conservative, for good or understandable reasons. Although the Liberal Democrats increased their share by 9% in 2019, perhaps because East Hampshire is estimated narrowly to have favoured Remain in 2016, and although they have a local government springboard in Alton and Petersfield, it seems to be a truth universally acknowledged that affluent and fortunate East Hampshire must be in want of a Conservative Member of Parliament.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 19.0% 180/650
Owner occupied 74.1% 73/575
Private rented 13.7% 497/575
Social rented 12.2% 421/575
White 96.0% 129/575
Black 0.6% 463/575
Asian 2.0% 444/575
Managerial & professional 43.3% 62/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.5% 470/575
Degree level 40.0% 113/575
No qualifications 12.6% 521/575
Students 5.2% 361/575
General election 2019: East Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Damian Hinds 33,446 58.8 -4.9
Liberal Democrats David Buxton 13,750 24.2 +9.0
Labour Gaynor Austin 6,287 11.1 -5.9
Green Zoe Parker 2,600 4.6 +1.4
UKIP Jim Makin 616 1.1 +1.1
Justice & Anti-Corruption Eddie Trotter 196 0.3 -0.7
C Majority 19,696 34.6 -12.0
2019 electorate 76,478
Turnout 56,895 74.4 -0.3
Conservative hold
Swing C to LD 5.5
Boundary Changes
The new East Hampshire seat will consist of
66.0% of East Hampshire
23.6% of Meon Valley
1.2% of North East Hampshire
0.5% of North West Hampshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_309_East%20Hampshire_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 (Rallings & Thrasher)
Firstly, though, it might be thought that Bordon is a rather odd description of that missing third of the present East Hampshire given that none of the seven wards listed have that name in their title. Indeed three of them are named as sub-units of a place called Whtehill. Looking at a ward map, the community that undoubtedly does exist called Bordon is spread across Whitehill wards. This mystery is connected with the fact that Whitehill is the parish in which Bordon has grown up – it is an older name, and still used for the local government wards. Lindford ward is also part of the Bordon built-up area. The other wards which depart from East Hampshire parliamentary constituency are all spread along each side of the A3 as it progresses north east towards Surrey then London: Bramshott & Liphook, Headley and Grayshott, which almost reaches Hindhead and the Devil’s Punchbowl, notable Surrey landmarks, lofty (for the South East) on the Greensand Ridge.
The loss of over 25,000 voters to Farnham & Bordon means that compensation for East Hampshire has to be found elsewhere. This is chiefly in the form of the wards of East Hampshire around Horndean which had been shifted into in the Meon Valley constituency on its creation in 2005 and are now to be returned as Meon Valley is abolished and split up. There are also small segments of North East Hampshire (The Candovers) and North West Hampshire due to ward boundary adjustments. Therefore overall the centre of gravity of the East Hampshire constituency has again moved southwards, having tracked north in the review that came into force in 2010.
The two best known communities remain as they have been since the boundary changes before that, in 1997. They are Alton (population around 19,500 in 2021) and Petersfield (15,000), which gave its name to the predecessor constituency to East Hampshire before its creation in 1983, and which had existed since at least the 16th century as a parliamentary borough, and which had been Conservative without a break since 1892. The Liberals here were done in by Gladstone’s Irish Home Bill in the mid 1880s, though they failed to regain Petersfield by just 96 votes in their landslide year of 1906. Alton had actually been placed in the Winchester constituency until 1997, and shares some of that seat's Liberal Democrat tendencies. Of its seven East Hampshire district wards, the Liberal Democrats won five in May 2023, and Labour won one, Alton Eastbrook (their only representation on the council). In Petersfield the LD success has generally been more recent, but they gained four district councillors in the town in 2023, all gains from the Tories.
The Conservatives held most of the rural wards and remained the largest party on East Hampshire council, but lost overall control. This was an improvement for the opposition parties compared with May 2021, when the Conservatives won all the county council divisions within East Hampshire district except Alton Town and Whitehill/Bordon/Lindford, which was held by a localist Community candidate – but is to be transferred out of the constituency anyway. In the Horndean section, travelling in the other direction, into the East Hampshire seat, the Conservatives won very easily in the county contest in 2021 (oddly that county division is called Catherington, not Horndean) but the picture was more mixed in May 2023, with three Tories, two LDs and one Green elected to the district council.
In general elections, the Liberal Democrats have advanced somewhat, as they regained second place in the 2019 general election having been third behind Labour in 2017 – and third behind UKIP in 2015. They were still a massive 19,696 behind the former Education Secretary and current Prisons, Parole and Probation Minister Damian Hinds, though. Despite their strength in local elections particularly in the towns they are still a long, long way behind in East Hampshire constituency.
The political tone is, perhaps, captured best by the villages: very much of the heart-of-England nature, though off the tourist track with two exceptions, one major and one minor: here are Jane Austen’s Chawton and the naturalist Gilbert White’s Selborne, the latter deserving to be better known, delightfully set among the East Hampshire hangers (deeply wooded hills). In general elections all this territory is indeed conservative and Conservative, for good or understandable reasons. Although the Liberal Democrats increased their share by 9% in 2019, perhaps because East Hampshire is estimated narrowly to have favoured Remain in 2016, and although they have a local government springboard in Alton and Petersfield, it seems to be a truth universally acknowledged that affluent and fortunate East Hampshire must be in want of a Conservative Member of Parliament.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 19.0% 180/650
Owner occupied 74.1% 73/575
Private rented 13.7% 497/575
Social rented 12.2% 421/575
White 96.0% 129/575
Black 0.6% 463/575
Asian 2.0% 444/575
Managerial & professional 43.3% 62/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.5% 470/575
Degree level 40.0% 113/575
No qualifications 12.6% 521/575
Students 5.2% 361/575
General election 2019: East Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Damian Hinds 33,446 58.8 -4.9
Liberal Democrats David Buxton 13,750 24.2 +9.0
Labour Gaynor Austin 6,287 11.1 -5.9
Green Zoe Parker 2,600 4.6 +1.4
UKIP Jim Makin 616 1.1 +1.1
Justice & Anti-Corruption Eddie Trotter 196 0.3 -0.7
C Majority 19,696 34.6 -12.0
2019 electorate 76,478
Turnout 56,895 74.4 -0.3
Conservative hold
Swing C to LD 5.5
Boundary Changes
The new East Hampshire seat will consist of
66.0% of East Hampshire
23.6% of Meon Valley
1.2% of North East Hampshire
0.5% of North West Hampshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_309_East%20Hampshire_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 31965 | 59.0% |
| LD | 11765 | 21.7% |
| Lab | 6662 | 12.3% |
| Grn | 2971 | 5.5% |
| Oths | 812 | 1.5% |
| Majority | 20200 | 37.3% |
