Post by Robert Waller on Aug 7, 2023 9:29:08 GMT
There was a time when North was the safe Labour seat in Norfolk’s county town, and South was a marginal that the Conservatives could win. That situation no longer applies. The Tories have not come first in Norwich South since 1983, whereas they gained North in a byelection in 2009 then triumphed four more times, up to and including 2019. This reversal was chiefly due to boundary changes – but that is not the whole explanation, or story.
The seat called Norwich North was held continuously by Labour from its creation in 1950 until the first Thatcher landslide of 1983 (ironically the last time they won South). From 1976 to 1979 its MP held a Cabinet post: David Ennals (Social Security). However that version of North was entirely located within the county borough of Norwich’s boundaries, and included the more working class of the city’s residential areas.
Norwich is one of those places where the built up area (it is not really large enough to call it a conurbation) extends beyond the tighter boundaries of the core local authority, as is the case with, say, Nottingham and Leicester. This has an electoral effect, as significant Conservative suburban areas may be excluded from the city constituencies, leaving them as safely Labour – again, as in the aforementioned examples. However, Norwich is no longer large enough by comparison with the rise in the electoral quota to justify two constituencies of its own; this is part of a long term deficiency in relative population growth compared with other English cities that has gradually been taking effect since the medieval period, when it was the second biggest in England and a major economic centre due mainly to wool and textiles. Therefore since 1983 Norwich North as included very substantial elements of suburban terrain included in the Broadland District. This led to it being won by the Conservatives in all elections since, except for the three Blair victories of 1997 through 2005.
Only four of the City of Norwich wards are included in North at present, compared with the nine in the South constituency. By far the largest part of the electorate of North is provided by the seven Broadland wards, which cover the communities of Hellesdon, Old Catton, New Catton, Sprowston and Thorpe St Andrew. It is not really possible to tell exactly where any of these intersect with the Norwich city boundaries, nor even in some cases where they differ from each other. On a map the Broadland contribution to North looks like a slightly wonky halo or crown, curving above Norwich from the north west to due east.
The Broadland wards are mainly heavily owner occupied, such as 90% in Sprowston East, and usually Conservative. However in 2023 Labour took all five council seats in the Sprowston wards, and also made three gains in Thorpe St Andrew NW. The other wards returned Tories, as the one Liberal Democrat, in Hellesdon South East, lost his seat. Within the Norwich section there are examples of the high level of social rented housing which has long characterized this authority, such as 50% in Mile Cross, 38% in Crome, and 33% in Catton Grove. This is the core of that former strong Labour inclination when North really was a ‘Norwich’ division. In May 2023, the most recent Norwich city elections, Labour won all these three easily, with absolute majorities of the votes cast. The fourth city ward in this seat, Sewell, does not have extensive former council estates and was also exceptional in its politics, with the Green party making a gain from Labour, just as they had done in May 2022.
Sewell may not be electorally typical of the Norwich North seat, but it is actually more typical of Norwich council politics as a whole, where the Greens form the main opposition to Labour with 13 councillors after May 2023 to Labour’s 23 and just three for the Liberal Democrats - none at all for the Tories, a very different situation from Broadland. Overall, the stark difference in character between Norwich North and Norwich South parliamentary seats may be seen in the social, economic and demographic statistics. South was 44% owner occupied, North 64%, at the time of the last census, 2021, and using the new boundaries for both seats. In South the ‘middle class’ professional and managerial occupations accounted for around eight per cent more individuals than the ‘working class’ routine and semi-routine; in North, the numbers were close to neck and neck. Most striking of all are a number of figures associated with education. In Norwich South over 36% of adult residents held university degrees, which places the seat 180th out of the 575 in England and Wales on this variable, but North ranks in 447th place. Finally, 18.8% in South were full time students, exceeded by only 24 other constituencies. In North the figure was 5.1%, substantially below the national average.
This not only tells us much about the very different characters of the two seats, but is also relevant for their strongly opposed political preferences. South is very much the ‘higher academic’ seat. The University of East Anglia is there, indeed, there is now a University ward. Norwich South is estimated to have preferred ‘Remain’ in the EU’ with nearly 60% in 2016, whereas North probably voted Leave with over 56% - a massive difference within a single urban unit. Therefore the way that electoral politics has become correlated with educational profiles, and the rise of issues such as that of attitudes to 'Europe' along with decline of the class factor in elections, have all also played their part in the bifurcation between Norwich South and North as well as the boundary changes.
For all that Norwich North has the nature of stony ground for Labour since the end of Blairism as its predominant tone - white, fairly working class, unintellectual –it was still the kind of seat that they need to win to form a government at least with anywhere near a comfortable working majority. They missed gaining North by 507 votes in 2017 and on the old boundaries required a swing of just over 5% from the Tories, easily within their compass on the opinion poll and real election evidence in late 2023. Their task was be made slightly harder by the boundary changes suggested in the Commission’s revised and final report, which further strengthen the ‘Broadland’ part of the seat by adding the two Drayton wards, which in May 2023 returned one Conservative and one Liberal Democrat, but in both cases with Labour in third place. However ward boundary adjustments within Norwich also brought a slight countervailing advantage for Labour as a few hundred largely friendly voters in Crome ward were added from Norwich South. Overall the work of the Boundary Commission did not significantly alter either the importance or the size of the challenge facing the major parties in Norwich North.
This part of ‘Greater Norwich’ was a key test for Labour in the 2024 general election. Not only was its notional percentage majority in the critical zone for the number of gains necessary actually to win power, but they needed to show they can win in this kind of seat, as they did when Tony Blair’s New Labour secured three terms. Unlike Norwich South, this constituency is very much part of ‘middle England’. This may be indicated by a couple of unexciting statistics – it is very high in the list of constituencies whose residents report they have good health, not very good or poor; and it is 3rd out of all seats for those households which have just the one car, not more or none. Norwich North may not superficially cover a very interesting set of places, but in political terms it should be seen as very much doing so. In July 2024 Labour passed these tests with flying colours. Chloe Smith declined to defend North, the Tory share was more than halved, declining 30% to scarcely over a fifth of all votes cast, nearly being caught for second place by the Reform party, while Labour increased their proportion by 6.5% and won by over 10,000.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.1% 242/575
Owner occupied 63.6% 340/575
Private rented 16.3% 369/575
Social rented 20.1% 141/575
White 93.1% 239/575
Black 1.4% 281/575
Asian 2.5% 360/575
Managerial & professional 29.1% 382/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.8% 111/575
Degree level 26.6% 447/575
No qualifications 19.9% 196/575
Students 5.1% 375/575
General Election 2024: Norwich North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Alice Macdonald 20,794 45.4 +6.5
Conservative Charlotte Salomon 9,944 21.7 −29.9
Reform UK Nick Taylor 8,229 18.0 N/A
Green Ben Price 4,372 9.6 +7.3
Liberal Democrats Chicka Akinwale 2,073 4.5 −1.7
Independent Fiona Grace 353 0.8 N/A
Lab Majority 10,850 23.7
Electorate 75,730
Turnout 45,765 62.0
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 18.2 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Norwich North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Chloe Smith 23,397 50.5 +2.8
Labour Karen Davis 18,659 40.3 -6.3
Liberal Democrats David Thomas 2,663 5.8 +2.6
Green Adrian Holmes 1,078 2.3 +0.6
UKIP David Moreland 488 1.1 New
C Majority 4,738 10.2 +9.1
2019 electorate 67,172
Turnout 46,285 68.9 +0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 4.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Norwich North seat will consist of
100% of Norwich North
5.3% of Broadland
1.3% of Norwich South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_087_Norwich%20North_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result
Con 25181 50.6%
Lab 19660 39.5%
LD 3172 6.4%
Grn 1187 2.1%
Oth 571 1.1%
C maj 5521 11.1%
Thanks Pete Whitehead
The seat called Norwich North was held continuously by Labour from its creation in 1950 until the first Thatcher landslide of 1983 (ironically the last time they won South). From 1976 to 1979 its MP held a Cabinet post: David Ennals (Social Security). However that version of North was entirely located within the county borough of Norwich’s boundaries, and included the more working class of the city’s residential areas.
Norwich is one of those places where the built up area (it is not really large enough to call it a conurbation) extends beyond the tighter boundaries of the core local authority, as is the case with, say, Nottingham and Leicester. This has an electoral effect, as significant Conservative suburban areas may be excluded from the city constituencies, leaving them as safely Labour – again, as in the aforementioned examples. However, Norwich is no longer large enough by comparison with the rise in the electoral quota to justify two constituencies of its own; this is part of a long term deficiency in relative population growth compared with other English cities that has gradually been taking effect since the medieval period, when it was the second biggest in England and a major economic centre due mainly to wool and textiles. Therefore since 1983 Norwich North as included very substantial elements of suburban terrain included in the Broadland District. This led to it being won by the Conservatives in all elections since, except for the three Blair victories of 1997 through 2005.
Only four of the City of Norwich wards are included in North at present, compared with the nine in the South constituency. By far the largest part of the electorate of North is provided by the seven Broadland wards, which cover the communities of Hellesdon, Old Catton, New Catton, Sprowston and Thorpe St Andrew. It is not really possible to tell exactly where any of these intersect with the Norwich city boundaries, nor even in some cases where they differ from each other. On a map the Broadland contribution to North looks like a slightly wonky halo or crown, curving above Norwich from the north west to due east.
The Broadland wards are mainly heavily owner occupied, such as 90% in Sprowston East, and usually Conservative. However in 2023 Labour took all five council seats in the Sprowston wards, and also made three gains in Thorpe St Andrew NW. The other wards returned Tories, as the one Liberal Democrat, in Hellesdon South East, lost his seat. Within the Norwich section there are examples of the high level of social rented housing which has long characterized this authority, such as 50% in Mile Cross, 38% in Crome, and 33% in Catton Grove. This is the core of that former strong Labour inclination when North really was a ‘Norwich’ division. In May 2023, the most recent Norwich city elections, Labour won all these three easily, with absolute majorities of the votes cast. The fourth city ward in this seat, Sewell, does not have extensive former council estates and was also exceptional in its politics, with the Green party making a gain from Labour, just as they had done in May 2022.
Sewell may not be electorally typical of the Norwich North seat, but it is actually more typical of Norwich council politics as a whole, where the Greens form the main opposition to Labour with 13 councillors after May 2023 to Labour’s 23 and just three for the Liberal Democrats - none at all for the Tories, a very different situation from Broadland. Overall, the stark difference in character between Norwich North and Norwich South parliamentary seats may be seen in the social, economic and demographic statistics. South was 44% owner occupied, North 64%, at the time of the last census, 2021, and using the new boundaries for both seats. In South the ‘middle class’ professional and managerial occupations accounted for around eight per cent more individuals than the ‘working class’ routine and semi-routine; in North, the numbers were close to neck and neck. Most striking of all are a number of figures associated with education. In Norwich South over 36% of adult residents held university degrees, which places the seat 180th out of the 575 in England and Wales on this variable, but North ranks in 447th place. Finally, 18.8% in South were full time students, exceeded by only 24 other constituencies. In North the figure was 5.1%, substantially below the national average.
This not only tells us much about the very different characters of the two seats, but is also relevant for their strongly opposed political preferences. South is very much the ‘higher academic’ seat. The University of East Anglia is there, indeed, there is now a University ward. Norwich South is estimated to have preferred ‘Remain’ in the EU’ with nearly 60% in 2016, whereas North probably voted Leave with over 56% - a massive difference within a single urban unit. Therefore the way that electoral politics has become correlated with educational profiles, and the rise of issues such as that of attitudes to 'Europe' along with decline of the class factor in elections, have all also played their part in the bifurcation between Norwich South and North as well as the boundary changes.
For all that Norwich North has the nature of stony ground for Labour since the end of Blairism as its predominant tone - white, fairly working class, unintellectual –it was still the kind of seat that they need to win to form a government at least with anywhere near a comfortable working majority. They missed gaining North by 507 votes in 2017 and on the old boundaries required a swing of just over 5% from the Tories, easily within their compass on the opinion poll and real election evidence in late 2023. Their task was be made slightly harder by the boundary changes suggested in the Commission’s revised and final report, which further strengthen the ‘Broadland’ part of the seat by adding the two Drayton wards, which in May 2023 returned one Conservative and one Liberal Democrat, but in both cases with Labour in third place. However ward boundary adjustments within Norwich also brought a slight countervailing advantage for Labour as a few hundred largely friendly voters in Crome ward were added from Norwich South. Overall the work of the Boundary Commission did not significantly alter either the importance or the size of the challenge facing the major parties in Norwich North.
This part of ‘Greater Norwich’ was a key test for Labour in the 2024 general election. Not only was its notional percentage majority in the critical zone for the number of gains necessary actually to win power, but they needed to show they can win in this kind of seat, as they did when Tony Blair’s New Labour secured three terms. Unlike Norwich South, this constituency is very much part of ‘middle England’. This may be indicated by a couple of unexciting statistics – it is very high in the list of constituencies whose residents report they have good health, not very good or poor; and it is 3rd out of all seats for those households which have just the one car, not more or none. Norwich North may not superficially cover a very interesting set of places, but in political terms it should be seen as very much doing so. In July 2024 Labour passed these tests with flying colours. Chloe Smith declined to defend North, the Tory share was more than halved, declining 30% to scarcely over a fifth of all votes cast, nearly being caught for second place by the Reform party, while Labour increased their proportion by 6.5% and won by over 10,000.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.1% 242/575
Owner occupied 63.6% 340/575
Private rented 16.3% 369/575
Social rented 20.1% 141/575
White 93.1% 239/575
Black 1.4% 281/575
Asian 2.5% 360/575
Managerial & professional 29.1% 382/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.8% 111/575
Degree level 26.6% 447/575
No qualifications 19.9% 196/575
Students 5.1% 375/575
General Election 2024: Norwich North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Alice Macdonald 20,794 45.4 +6.5
Conservative Charlotte Salomon 9,944 21.7 −29.9
Reform UK Nick Taylor 8,229 18.0 N/A
Green Ben Price 4,372 9.6 +7.3
Liberal Democrats Chicka Akinwale 2,073 4.5 −1.7
Independent Fiona Grace 353 0.8 N/A
Lab Majority 10,850 23.7
Electorate 75,730
Turnout 45,765 62.0
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 18.2 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Norwich North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Chloe Smith 23,397 50.5 +2.8
Labour Karen Davis 18,659 40.3 -6.3
Liberal Democrats David Thomas 2,663 5.8 +2.6
Green Adrian Holmes 1,078 2.3 +0.6
UKIP David Moreland 488 1.1 New
C Majority 4,738 10.2 +9.1
2019 electorate 67,172
Turnout 46,285 68.9 +0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 4.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Norwich North seat will consist of
100% of Norwich North
5.3% of Broadland
1.3% of Norwich South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_087_Norwich%20North_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result
Con 25181 50.6%
Lab 19660 39.5%
LD 3172 6.4%
Grn 1187 2.1%
Oth 571 1.1%
C maj 5521 11.1%
Thanks Pete Whitehead