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Post by John Chanin on Aug 7, 2023 6:49:02 GMT
Sutton Coldfield is a rather reluctant part of the city of Birmingham. It was forced into union by the local government reforms of the 1970s, but continues to have an independent identity, and a town council has recently been set up. Attempts by the LGBCE to rationalise the boundary with Birmingham proper have led to fierce resistance, which means the ward boundaries meander through streets and houses along the south side of Chester Road. Similarly it has not become Birmingham Sutton for parliamentary purposes, but retains its old name. There is no question that geographically it is part of the city - the urban area is continuous - but socially it is a different matter. The seat throughout is very middle-class with little variation - owner-occupied, managerial jobs, high proportions with degrees. Physically the main feature is the huge Sutton Park, which the seat surrounds on the south and east (the west is in Walsall borough, and the north is in Lichfield District). To the east the boundary approximates to the new M6 toll. There is actually quite a lot of open country between the built up area and the city boundary, but there is nothing here but farms, and few voters. In summary this is a uber middle-class suburb, full of modern executive 4 bedroom houses, where NIMBYs flourish, and Conservatives weigh the votes. The white population is close to 80% throughout, high for Birmingham, but not of course for the country as a whole. The southern section is mostly inter-war semis, as it blends indistinguishably into Erdington and Oscott, although the housing by the side of the park is distinctly up-market. The town centre has a conservation area representing the Victorian core of what was once a small town outside the city. There is a little more private renting here, and it is a little down market, and this shows in a smaller Conservative majority. To the south-east are Walmley and Minworth, two communities outside Sutton proper, developed entirely post-war. Minworth is separated from the Castle Vale estate by an industrial estate and Birmingham’s main sewage works. North of the town centre is almost entirely modern executive housing, with two exceptions. On the far east is Falcon Lodge, Sutton’s only significant council housing estate, and the Reddicap ward which contains it is therefore lower in qualifications, managerial jobs, and Conservative votes. On the opposite wing some of the housing in the Four Oaks area in the north-west beside the park is not just 4-bedroom executive houses, but positively plutocratic, with its gated mansions. Politically the seat has been entirely unchanged since 1974, and once again the Boundary Commission is proposing no change. In 1979 it was the safest Conservative seat in the whole country. Since then it has slid down the list, along with general trends in urban areas, and the arrival of some ethnic minority households. There was only a narrow Leave vote here at the 2016 referendum. However it is still very safe. Locally Labour wins the Vesey ward, a narrow strip sandwiched between the Birmingham boundary and Sutton Park. However this is largely due to the untiring work of local activist Rob Pocock, and Vesey is demographically indistinguishable from the rest of Sutton Coldfield, and would have voted Conservative in the General Election accordingly. MP here since 2001 is veteran Andrew Mitchell, first elected for Gedling in Nottingham in 1987. He is a former cabinet minister, and Conservative minister and cheerleader for foreign aid. Census data: Owner-occupied 78% (17/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (516th), social rented 9% (554th). : White 81%(392nd), Black 3%(188th), South Asian 9%(126th), Mixed 3%(170th), Other 4%(209th) : Managerial & professional 51% (59th), Routine & Semi-routine 18% (516th) : Degree 41% (96th), Minimal qualifications 23% (453rd) : Students 5.6% (279th), Over 65: 23% (134th) Boundaries: Sutton Coldfield is unchanged
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Conservative | 32,224 | 61.0 | 31,604 | 60.4 | Labour | 16,885 | 31.9 | 12,332 | 23.6 | Liberal Democrat | 2,302 | 4.4 | 6,358 | 12.2 | Green | 965 | 1.8 | 2,031 | 3.9 | Other | 482 | 0.9 |
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| | Majority | 15,339 | 29.0 | 19,272 | 36.8 |
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2023 7:56:14 GMT
you mean the white population is high for Birmingham but low for the country as a whole. Very good profile apart from that, as always
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 7, 2023 8:33:20 GMT
Anecdotally I've heard that the good schools and more suburban atmosphere are making Sutton a favoured destination for middle class Asian families (particularly Hindus and Sikhs) - and the census statistics are starting to bear that out, particularly in the affluent gated estate next to Sutton Park. This isn't likely to have much of a partisan impact though - at least for now the Conservatives do very well with that group.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2023 8:37:37 GMT
Anecdotally I've heard that the good schools and more suburban atmosphere are making Sutton a favoured destination for middle class Asian families (particularly Hindus and Sikhs) - and the census statistics are starting to bear that out, particularly in the affluent gated estate next to Sutton Park. This isn't likely to have much of a partisan impact though - at least for now the Conservatives do very well with that group. Even more noticeable just across the border in Little Aston - perhaps the wealthiest community in the entire West Midlands region. It's now about a third Asian, predominantly Sikh. |
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 7, 2023 9:01:45 GMT
Anecdotally I've heard that the good schools and more suburban atmosphere are making Sutton a favoured destination for middle class Asian families (particularly Hindus and Sikhs) - and the census statistics are starting to bear that out, particularly in the affluent gated estate next to Sutton Park. This isn't likely to have much of a partisan impact though - at least for now the Conservatives do very well with that group. Happening also in Solihull. This is definitely the well off though, as the ordinary middle classes can't afford these areas. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Aug 7, 2023 16:00:06 GMT
Politically the seat has been entirely unchanged since 1974, and once again the Boundary Commission is proposing no change. In 1979 it was the safest Conservative seat in the whole country. Since then it has slid down the list, along with general trends in urban areas, and the arrival of some ethnic minority households. There was only a narrow Leave vote here at the 2016 referendum. However it is still very safe. Locally Labour wins the Vesey ward, a narrow strip sandwiched between the Birmingham boundary and Sutton Park. However this is largely due to the untiring work of local activist Rob Pocock, and Vesey is demographically indistinguishable from the rest of Sutton Coldfield, and would have voted Conservative in the General Election accordingly. MP here since 2001 is veteran Andrew Mitchell, first elected for Gedling in Nottingham in 1987. He is a former cabinet minister, and Conservative minister and cheerleader for foreign aid. Given the rest of the profile and the bourgeois reputation, it seems surprising that it voted Leave at all. I think we decided that on the outgoing boundaries (and assuming the accuracy of Chris Hanretty's estimates) it was actually the constituency with the highest proportion of degree educated residents (based on the 2011 census) to do so. It's clear that Sutton Coldfield differs somewhat from your typical "urban middle class" area, e.g. my own constituency of Sheffield Hallam, which in some ways is even more middle class (higher proportion of "managerial and professional" workers in the NS-SeC, considerably higher proportion with degree level qualifications, even a slightly higher level of owner occupation). I imagine a lot of this is to do with different types of middle class job; the professional/managerial distinction might show this up, and indeed on 2011 figures Hallam is much more strikingly professional than managerial, whereas Sutton Coldfield is similarly ranked on both. However I do wonder whether people with a conservative mindset (and thus more likely to vote Leave) are disproportionately attracted by Sutton. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 7, 2023 16:19:46 GMT
Politically the seat has been entirely unchanged since 1974, and once again the Boundary Commission is proposing no change. In 1979 it was the safest Conservative seat in the whole country. Since then it has slid down the list, along with general trends in urban areas, and the arrival of some ethnic minority households. There was only a narrow Leave vote here at the 2016 referendum. However it is still very safe. Locally Labour wins the Vesey ward, a narrow strip sandwiched between the Birmingham boundary and Sutton Park. However this is largely due to the untiring work of local activist Rob Pocock, and Vesey is demographically indistinguishable from the rest of Sutton Coldfield, and would have voted Conservative in the General Election accordingly. MP here since 2001 is veteran Andrew Mitchell, first elected for Gedling in Nottingham in 1987. He is a former cabinet minister, and Conservative minister and cheerleader for foreign aid. Given the rest of the profile and the bourgeois reputation, it seems surprising that it voted Leave at all. I think we decided that on the outgoing boundaries (and assuming the accuracy of Chris Hanretty's estimates) it was actually the constituency with the highest proportion of degree educated residents (based on the 2011 census) to do so. It's clear that Sutton Coldfield differs somewhat from your typical "urban middle class" area, e.g. my own constituency of Sheffield Hallam, which in some ways is even more middle class (higher proportion of "managerial and professional" workers in the NS-SeC, considerably higher proportion with degree level qualifications, even a slightly higher level of owner occupation). I imagine a lot of this is to do with different types of middle class job; the professional/managerial distinction might show this up, and indeed on 2011 figures Hallam is much more strikingly professional than managerial, whereas Sutton Coldfield is similarly ranked on both. However I do wonder whether people with a conservative mindset (and thus more likely to vote Leave) are disproportionately attracted by Sutton. Sutton Coldfield did indeed vote Leave regardless of Hanretty's estimates; Birmingham City Council actually released figures showing the referendum results for each of the old city wards. Within Sutton: New Hall (Minworth, Walmley, Wylde Green) voted 56% Leave Trinity (Falcon Lodge, Reddicap, town centre) voted 54% Leave Four Oaks (Mere Green, Roughley, estates around Sutton Park) voted 50.3% Remain Vesey (Boldmere, Chester Road North area) voted 52% Remain The overall trend is probably what you'd expect - the more affluent areas with more graduates tended to be stronger for Remain than the relatively deprived areas. But while they're consistent relative to each other, they are noticeably stronger for Leave than might be expected - notably Falcon Lodge is the only area with clearly stronger Leave voting demographics than the city average (and the city as a whole was almost exactly 50-50). Perhaps some of it is the mindset thing you mention, probably ethnicity is a factor as well. |
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 7, 2023 16:26:56 GMT
Politically the seat has been entirely unchanged since 1974, and once again the Boundary Commission is proposing no change. In 1979 it was the safest Conservative seat in the whole country. Since then it has slid down the list, along with general trends in urban areas, and the arrival of some ethnic minority households. There was only a narrow Leave vote here at the 2016 referendum. However it is still very safe. Locally Labour wins the Vesey ward, a narrow strip sandwiched between the Birmingham boundary and Sutton Park. However this is largely due to the untiring work of local activist Rob Pocock, and Vesey is demographically indistinguishable from the rest of Sutton Coldfield, and would have voted Conservative in the General Election accordingly. MP here since 2001 is veteran Andrew Mitchell, first elected for Gedling in Nottingham in 1987. He is a former cabinet minister, and Conservative minister and cheerleader for foreign aid. Given the rest of the profile and the bourgeois reputation, it seems surprising that it voted Leave at all. I think we decided that on the outgoing boundaries (and assuming the accuracy of Chris Hanretty's estimates) it was actually the constituency with the highest proportion of degree educated residents (based on the 2011 census) to do so. It's clear that Sutton Coldfield differs somewhat from your typical "urban middle class" area, e.g. my own constituency of Sheffield Hallam, which in some ways is even more middle class (higher proportion of "managerial and professional" workers in the NS-SeC, considerably higher proportion with degree level qualifications, even a slightly higher level of owner occupation). I imagine a lot of this is to do with different types of middle class job; the professional/managerial distinction might show this up, and indeed on 2011 figures Hallam is much more strikingly professional than managerial, whereas Sutton Coldfield is similarly ranked on both. However I do wonder whether people with a conservative mindset (and thus more likely to vote Leave) are disproportionately attracted by Sutton. I think my repeated comment that 'Birmingham is a very segregated city' applies here. Class segregation is common enough, but Birmingham's educated middle classes have separated too, with very rich areas in the inner city suburbs being remarkably non-Conservative, while Sutton and Solihull with similar demographics remain overwhelmingly Conservative. There is a bit of this in other cities too, but the Conservative areas tend to be perhaps a bit further out in exurbs and commuter villages. I have tended to see this as a cultural thing - some people are happy in the socially mixed inner city close to cultural amenities, and others like the space and modern housing of the suburbs. People tend to cluster into like-minded groups in a free market. |
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