Post by Robert Waller on Aug 6, 2023 21:02:43 GMT
A change of name, but not much of a change of boundaries. In fact, as the name has got longer, the seat has become smaller. Broadland and Fakenham consists of over 93% of the present Broadland, and no added territory at all. This could be deemed an example of nomenclature inflation.
Broadland is one of the more unusual constituency names, in that it does not refer to a town or city but rather a geographical entity. The ‘Norfolk Broads’ is an extensive area of water features, based on man-made shallow lakes created by the process of peat working, along with slow flowing rivers. As a tourist destination it will hold happy memories for many people who enjoy ‘messing around in boats’, and even more who have read the children’s stories of Arthur Ransome in the Swallows and Amazons series, such as Coot Club and The Big Six. Unfortunately, the Broadland constituency contains neither the whole of the Broads themselves, nor the whole of Broadland council, nor indeed is it exclusively compared of Broadland wards. In fact, it is something of a rag-bag of different sections of Norfolk.
The reason for this is clear. Broadland was created as a ninth and extra seat for Norfolk in the boundary review which was enacted in time for the 2010 general election. Indeed it was largely carved out of the Mid Norfolk constituency which itself only dated from 1983 when Norfolk was granted its eighth seat. Divisions formed when a county’s allocation is increased are often rather artificial and seem to have no clear core, being made up of bits and pieces previously in other seats. Despite its apparently unifying name, Broadland remains no exception to this. This is apparent on a map. It is a long strip, quite a distance from west to east but thin from north to south. Like the current Mid Norfolk it touches neither the sea nor the boundary with any other county. There are several different elements within the Broadland constituency.
First, yes, it does include some broads, centred on Wroxham and following the south bank of the river Bure which forms the boundary with the North Norfolk seat for several miles. However the problem is that the Bure is very much set in the middle of the main section of the Broads, and other key villages associated with them such as Hoveton and Horning are on its north bank and therefore not in the Broadland constituency, but rather in North Norfolk - as is Hickling Broad (not even close). Second, Broadland does have a significant population concentration in what are effectively Norwich suburban villages such as Drayton, Taverham and Thorpe Marriott. The seat curls round the edge of Norwich’s built up area in a kidney shape from the north west right round to the east of the city, including along the periphery of the airport. This territory is linked by an A road called the Broadland Northway, which was constructed between 2016 and 2018. The possibility of further development in this section in the context of a national housing shortage and regional expansion is clear. The Broads seem a long way off in this part of the constituency.
That comment would also be valid if we move far to the north west to a section of the North Norfolk district nevertheless included in the Broadland parliamentary seat. The largest community here is Fakenham (population 8,000, actually less than that of Taverham, for example). It would take some careful planning and manoeuvring to travel from Fakenham to the other end of the Broadland seat, which almost reaches Great Yarmouth on the east coast, without crossing its boundaries. Fakenham is nearer to Kings Lynn than to Norwich, never mind Yarmouth. Despite its modest size Fakenham is a significant market centre for many nearby villages, many of them not in this seat as it is almost surrounded by parts of Mid Norfolk, North Norfolk and North West Norfolk. Probably the best known of these are Great and Little Walsingham, among England’s major pilgrimage destinations for both Roman Catholics and High Church Anglicans.
Indeed the oddity of including the six North Norfolk council wards in this Broadland seat was initially recognized by the Boundary Commission in its provisional proposals, when they proposed that they should be removed to join the North Norfolk constituency. However in the major revisions published in November 2022, and later confirmed in the final report published in June 2023, this was reversed, and instead the only part to be removed is in the ‘Greater Norwich area’ in the shape of the two Drayton wards, switched to Norwich North. This is also imperfect as it splits the community of Thorpe Marriott (which has only existed since the 1980s but now has a population of over 6,000). The seat will now be even more of a long thin shape, although one concession to the North Norfolk section has been to rename it as Broadland and Fakenham. Over 42,000 electors in the Broadland council area will now be in the Norwich North seat though.
There is unlikely to be a significant electoral effect of the boundary changes, as Broadland is a very safe Conservative seat. At local level the main opposition is provided by the Liberal Democrats. In the most recent Broadland council elections in May 2023 they won the wards of Aylsham, Buxton (no, not that one), Hevingham, Horsford & Felthorpe, Reepham and Spixworth with St Faith’s – and added the second council seat in Taverham North to the one they won in 2019. The Greens gained Brundall, Burlingham and Plumstead. Labour also made council gains , though not in the part of the authority in this seat (they were in Sprowston, in Norwich North). Nevertheless even in their dire May of 2023, the Tories remained the largest party in Broadland council. In the North Norfolk council area within this seat, the Conservatives held on to most, including in Fakenham, but lost Stibbard to the Liberal Democrats and one in The Raynhams to and Independent. In the county council elections in May 2021, of the nine divisions wholly within the Broadland constituency the score was 7-2 to the Conservatives, with the LD exceptions being Hevingham & Spixworth and Aylsham (and it was 2-1 to the Tories in the divisions partially included).
Looking at the two departing Drayton wards, in May 2023 the Conservatives retained one North) and lost the other, South, to the Liberal Democrats. The notionals for the 2019 election if Broadland & Fakenham had existed then calculated by our Vote UK expert, Pete Whitehead, suggest almost no net partisan impact of the boundary changes
The demographics of the Broadland & Fakenham seat to be gleaned from the 2021 census, and on the new boundaries, confirm its Conservative characteristics. The population is elderly – well into the top decile as far as aged 65 plus is concerned. It is close to the top 50 seats for owner occupied housing. It is very white indeed for an English seat. It has substantially more in professional and managerial occupations than routine or semi-routine, though not at the extremes for either. It has very few full time students, and it has one of the lowest increases between 2011 and 2021 in the percentage with degree level education. Finally, it is a region and county that have swung to the Conservatives as time as passed, both because of new housing and population growth and because of the decline of the agricultural working class radicalism that once made rural Norfolk seats ‘do different’. Labour have still been able to finish in second place in the last three general elections in Broadland, but it is the Liberal Democrats who challenge in local elections, although they have never been able remotely to reproduce in parliamentary contests their very respectable share of 32% the first time the constituency was contested in 2010.
The Conservatives may well lose a substantial part of their near 60% share from 2019, but with divided opposition they are highly likely to win again by a substantial margin. Dick, Dorothea and the others in Coot Club may have found adventure on and around the Norfolk Broads, but even though the MP is Jerome Mayhew who was the Managing Director of the Go Ape outdoor activity parks (“Find Your Next Adventure”), there will be probably be little excitement in the campaigns in these Broadlands in the foreseeable future.
goape.co.uk/
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.6% 43/575
Owner-occupied 75.2% 54/575
Private rented 13.9% 489/575
Social rented 11.0% 479/575
White 97.3% 50/575
Black 0.% 498/575
Asian 0.9% 537/575
Managerial & professional 33.4% 267/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.6% 292/575
Degree level 27.4% 417/575 6th lowest increase 2011021 in England and Wales
No qualifications 17.9% 269/575
Students 4.1% 548/575
General Election 2019: Broadland
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Jerome Mayhew 33,934 59.6 +1.7
Labour Jess Barnard 12,073 21.2 - 8.4
Liberal Democrats Ben Goodwin 9,195 16.1 + 8.2
Green Andrew Boswell 1,412 2.5 + 0.8
The Universal Good Party Simon Rous 363 0.6 New
C Majority 21,861 38.4 + 10.1
2019 electorate 78,151
Turnout 56,977 72.9 +0.5
Conservative hold
Swing 5.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Broadland and Fakenham seat will consist of
93.3% of Broadland
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_052_Broadland%20and%20Fakenham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result
By Pete Whitehead
Con 31957 59.5%
Lab 11383 21.2%
LD 8737 16.3%
Grn 1334 2.5%
Oth 343 0.6%
C maj 20574 38.3%
Broadland is one of the more unusual constituency names, in that it does not refer to a town or city but rather a geographical entity. The ‘Norfolk Broads’ is an extensive area of water features, based on man-made shallow lakes created by the process of peat working, along with slow flowing rivers. As a tourist destination it will hold happy memories for many people who enjoy ‘messing around in boats’, and even more who have read the children’s stories of Arthur Ransome in the Swallows and Amazons series, such as Coot Club and The Big Six. Unfortunately, the Broadland constituency contains neither the whole of the Broads themselves, nor the whole of Broadland council, nor indeed is it exclusively compared of Broadland wards. In fact, it is something of a rag-bag of different sections of Norfolk.
The reason for this is clear. Broadland was created as a ninth and extra seat for Norfolk in the boundary review which was enacted in time for the 2010 general election. Indeed it was largely carved out of the Mid Norfolk constituency which itself only dated from 1983 when Norfolk was granted its eighth seat. Divisions formed when a county’s allocation is increased are often rather artificial and seem to have no clear core, being made up of bits and pieces previously in other seats. Despite its apparently unifying name, Broadland remains no exception to this. This is apparent on a map. It is a long strip, quite a distance from west to east but thin from north to south. Like the current Mid Norfolk it touches neither the sea nor the boundary with any other county. There are several different elements within the Broadland constituency.
First, yes, it does include some broads, centred on Wroxham and following the south bank of the river Bure which forms the boundary with the North Norfolk seat for several miles. However the problem is that the Bure is very much set in the middle of the main section of the Broads, and other key villages associated with them such as Hoveton and Horning are on its north bank and therefore not in the Broadland constituency, but rather in North Norfolk - as is Hickling Broad (not even close). Second, Broadland does have a significant population concentration in what are effectively Norwich suburban villages such as Drayton, Taverham and Thorpe Marriott. The seat curls round the edge of Norwich’s built up area in a kidney shape from the north west right round to the east of the city, including along the periphery of the airport. This territory is linked by an A road called the Broadland Northway, which was constructed between 2016 and 2018. The possibility of further development in this section in the context of a national housing shortage and regional expansion is clear. The Broads seem a long way off in this part of the constituency.
That comment would also be valid if we move far to the north west to a section of the North Norfolk district nevertheless included in the Broadland parliamentary seat. The largest community here is Fakenham (population 8,000, actually less than that of Taverham, for example). It would take some careful planning and manoeuvring to travel from Fakenham to the other end of the Broadland seat, which almost reaches Great Yarmouth on the east coast, without crossing its boundaries. Fakenham is nearer to Kings Lynn than to Norwich, never mind Yarmouth. Despite its modest size Fakenham is a significant market centre for many nearby villages, many of them not in this seat as it is almost surrounded by parts of Mid Norfolk, North Norfolk and North West Norfolk. Probably the best known of these are Great and Little Walsingham, among England’s major pilgrimage destinations for both Roman Catholics and High Church Anglicans.
Indeed the oddity of including the six North Norfolk council wards in this Broadland seat was initially recognized by the Boundary Commission in its provisional proposals, when they proposed that they should be removed to join the North Norfolk constituency. However in the major revisions published in November 2022, and later confirmed in the final report published in June 2023, this was reversed, and instead the only part to be removed is in the ‘Greater Norwich area’ in the shape of the two Drayton wards, switched to Norwich North. This is also imperfect as it splits the community of Thorpe Marriott (which has only existed since the 1980s but now has a population of over 6,000). The seat will now be even more of a long thin shape, although one concession to the North Norfolk section has been to rename it as Broadland and Fakenham. Over 42,000 electors in the Broadland council area will now be in the Norwich North seat though.
There is unlikely to be a significant electoral effect of the boundary changes, as Broadland is a very safe Conservative seat. At local level the main opposition is provided by the Liberal Democrats. In the most recent Broadland council elections in May 2023 they won the wards of Aylsham, Buxton (no, not that one), Hevingham, Horsford & Felthorpe, Reepham and Spixworth with St Faith’s – and added the second council seat in Taverham North to the one they won in 2019. The Greens gained Brundall, Burlingham and Plumstead. Labour also made council gains , though not in the part of the authority in this seat (they were in Sprowston, in Norwich North). Nevertheless even in their dire May of 2023, the Tories remained the largest party in Broadland council. In the North Norfolk council area within this seat, the Conservatives held on to most, including in Fakenham, but lost Stibbard to the Liberal Democrats and one in The Raynhams to and Independent. In the county council elections in May 2021, of the nine divisions wholly within the Broadland constituency the score was 7-2 to the Conservatives, with the LD exceptions being Hevingham & Spixworth and Aylsham (and it was 2-1 to the Tories in the divisions partially included).
Looking at the two departing Drayton wards, in May 2023 the Conservatives retained one North) and lost the other, South, to the Liberal Democrats. The notionals for the 2019 election if Broadland & Fakenham had existed then calculated by our Vote UK expert, Pete Whitehead, suggest almost no net partisan impact of the boundary changes
The demographics of the Broadland & Fakenham seat to be gleaned from the 2021 census, and on the new boundaries, confirm its Conservative characteristics. The population is elderly – well into the top decile as far as aged 65 plus is concerned. It is close to the top 50 seats for owner occupied housing. It is very white indeed for an English seat. It has substantially more in professional and managerial occupations than routine or semi-routine, though not at the extremes for either. It has very few full time students, and it has one of the lowest increases between 2011 and 2021 in the percentage with degree level education. Finally, it is a region and county that have swung to the Conservatives as time as passed, both because of new housing and population growth and because of the decline of the agricultural working class radicalism that once made rural Norfolk seats ‘do different’. Labour have still been able to finish in second place in the last three general elections in Broadland, but it is the Liberal Democrats who challenge in local elections, although they have never been able remotely to reproduce in parliamentary contests their very respectable share of 32% the first time the constituency was contested in 2010.
The Conservatives may well lose a substantial part of their near 60% share from 2019, but with divided opposition they are highly likely to win again by a substantial margin. Dick, Dorothea and the others in Coot Club may have found adventure on and around the Norfolk Broads, but even though the MP is Jerome Mayhew who was the Managing Director of the Go Ape outdoor activity parks (“Find Your Next Adventure”), there will be probably be little excitement in the campaigns in these Broadlands in the foreseeable future.
goape.co.uk/
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.6% 43/575
Owner-occupied 75.2% 54/575
Private rented 13.9% 489/575
Social rented 11.0% 479/575
White 97.3% 50/575
Black 0.% 498/575
Asian 0.9% 537/575
Managerial & professional 33.4% 267/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.6% 292/575
Degree level 27.4% 417/575 6th lowest increase 2011021 in England and Wales
No qualifications 17.9% 269/575
Students 4.1% 548/575
General Election 2019: Broadland
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Jerome Mayhew 33,934 59.6 +1.7
Labour Jess Barnard 12,073 21.2 - 8.4
Liberal Democrats Ben Goodwin 9,195 16.1 + 8.2
Green Andrew Boswell 1,412 2.5 + 0.8
The Universal Good Party Simon Rous 363 0.6 New
C Majority 21,861 38.4 + 10.1
2019 electorate 78,151
Turnout 56,977 72.9 +0.5
Conservative hold
Swing 5.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Broadland and Fakenham seat will consist of
93.3% of Broadland
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_052_Broadland%20and%20Fakenham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result
By Pete Whitehead
Con 31957 59.5%
Lab 11383 21.2%
LD 8737 16.3%
Grn 1334 2.5%
Oth 343 0.6%
C maj 20574 38.3%