Post by Robert Waller on Aug 5, 2023 20:05:11 GMT
Guildford vies with Woking to be classed as the largest town in the county of Surrey, with a population of around 78,000 in 2021. Town, note, not city, despite the presence of an Anglican cathedral and the name of the local (rather unsuccessful) non-league football team. It is also the home of Surrey University, which has a rising number of students, and includes a wide range of housing neighbourhoods. There are large ex-council estates in its south west quadrant, such as Park Barn, and Bellfields in the north, where Labour front bencher Emily Thornberry spent part of her youth. Overall, though, only 13% of housing was in the social rented sector at the 2021 census – exactly the average for the South East of England. Rather more typical of the town are the middle class and owner occupied sections like Burpham and Merrow to the north east, and Castle ward rising up the slopes of the Downs south of the town centre. The constituency boundaries also already include some wealthy villages outside Guildford itself like Worplesdon and Shalford. But this territory outside the town is about to undergo significant remodelling.
In the boundary changes ordered by the Commission which offered its final report in June 2023, there has been a general shuffling of constituency boundaries in Surrey, with several seats moving their centre of gravity eastwards, rather like Poland after the Second World War – only in the other direction, as it were. In the case of Guildford the changes are generally logical, as it loses the wards it has at present that are in another local authority (Waverley), and gains some that are in Guildford Borough but not currently in the constituency. Under the new lines, all the Guildford seat’s wards are also in the local authority (though there will be Guildford borough wards in the new Godalming & Ash).
To be specific, the Waverley wards that depart, all to Godalming/Ash are Alfold, Blackheath & Wonersh, Ewhurst and all those belonging to the small town of Cranleigh, including Cranleigh West & Shamley Green. Those Guildford borough wards that arrive from Mole Valley, all east and north of Guildford itself, are Effingham, Clandon & Horsley, and Send & Lovelace. These are affluent, not agricultural, villages. Lovelace is named after Ada, the early mathematical pioneer, who lived at Horsley Towers - now a rather exclusive hotel. This territory all looks as if they belong to the heartland of Home Counties conservatism. Yet not one of these wards actually elected a Tory in the May 2023 Guildford borough elections. Instead the victors were, respectively, the Liberal Democrats, Residents for Guildford and Villages, and the Guildford Greenbelt Group.
As these names imply, there is a strong element of localism, especially in the face of possible new housing development. There were already signs that the Conservatives might face a tough challenge in the May 2019 local elections, when they made a net loss of no fewer than 26 seats on Guildford borough council, dropping from 35 councillors to nine. The Liberal Democrats made eight net gains, but the Residents for Guildford and Villages did even more damage, taking 15 council seats. But the Conservatives’ problems in both municipal and general elections here are far deeper than a NIMBY midterm protest vote. In 2023 the Conservative number of councillors held steady, but the Liberal Democrats made eight gains, essentially at the expense of ‘R4GV’. It is the LDs that the Tories need to worry about in the forthcoming general election. Guildford is, and has been on several previous occasions, a key marginal in parliamentary terms.
At least in its current administrative form, the county of Surrey has not been known in the past for a plethora of critical marginal electoral contests. As in 2019, it has usually returned a complete slate of Conservative MPs. However Guildford does to a considerable extent buck this trend. It has had a Liberal Democrat MP in recent memory, and figured high on that party’s target list last time, and will do again in 2024. Further spice was added by the candidature of the incumbent Tory MP Anne Milton as an ‘anti-Brexit’ independent. As elsewhere in Surrey at Esher & Walton, the outcome was in doubt until the declaration on election night; though in Guildford too, the result did eventually contribute to Boris Johnson’s overall majority of 80 to ‘get Brexit done’, despite its Remain vote of around 56% back in 2016.
In the event, it is arguable whether the 4,356 (7.3%) votes Anne Milton polled can be regarded as safeguarding the 3,337 majority achieved by her successor as official Conservative candidate, Angela Richardson, because it split the ‘Remain’ share, or whether Milton actually split the Tory vote itself. Probably it was a mixture of the two and therefore this did not determine the outcome of the contest. The Tories undoubtedly suffered such a large drop in majority because of Guildford’s pro-Remain tendencies, but perhaps held on because this was narrowly trumped by this affluent seat’s fear of a Corbyn Prime Ministership. Guildford is in the top echelon of seats for both higher managerial and higher professional occupations; and also for those with degree level education, an indicator which has recently worked against the Conservatives. As in Esher & Walton, it could be therefore argued that the ‘Brexit election’ of 2019 may well have proved to be the Liberal Democrats’ best chance for a while of gaining Guildford.
On the other hand it might also be recalled that in this case they did hold the seat from 2001 to 2005, when Sue Doughty was the MP, and also they have that solid base on both Guildford councils. Above all, the national Conservative level of popularity has plummeted since 2019, and Guildford is the kind of seat where tactical voting may apply effectively. At the least, even without the Milton factor, this seat should still be considered a very plausible potential Liberal Democrat target going into the next election. With their strong advances in Esher & Walton and generally across the county (where after May 2023 the Conservatives hold overall control of just one district level council), the days of Surrey not being blessed with marginals are over.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.4% 397/575
Owner occupied 64.9% 315/575
Private rented 21.9% 163/575
Social rented 13.2% 376/575
White 84.5% 365/575
Black 1.6% 259/575
Asian 8.1% 195/575
Managerial & professional 41.4% 90/575
Routine & Semi-routine 13.6% 545/575
Degree level 46.1% 56/575
No qualifications 10.6% 555/575
Students 17.5% 29/575
General Election 2019: Guildford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Angela Richardson 26,317 44.9 -9.7
Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 22,980 39.2 +15.3
Labour Anne Rouse 4,515 7.7 -11.3
Independent Anne Milton 4,356 7.4 N/A
Peace John Morris 483 0.8 +0.5
C Majority 3,337 5.7 -25.0
Turnout 58,651 75.5 +1.7
2019 electorate 77,729
Registered electors 77,729
Conservative hold
Swing 12.5 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The new Guildford seat will consist of
73.3% of Guildford
19.1% of Mole Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_325_Guildford_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
In the boundary changes ordered by the Commission which offered its final report in June 2023, there has been a general shuffling of constituency boundaries in Surrey, with several seats moving their centre of gravity eastwards, rather like Poland after the Second World War – only in the other direction, as it were. In the case of Guildford the changes are generally logical, as it loses the wards it has at present that are in another local authority (Waverley), and gains some that are in Guildford Borough but not currently in the constituency. Under the new lines, all the Guildford seat’s wards are also in the local authority (though there will be Guildford borough wards in the new Godalming & Ash).
To be specific, the Waverley wards that depart, all to Godalming/Ash are Alfold, Blackheath & Wonersh, Ewhurst and all those belonging to the small town of Cranleigh, including Cranleigh West & Shamley Green. Those Guildford borough wards that arrive from Mole Valley, all east and north of Guildford itself, are Effingham, Clandon & Horsley, and Send & Lovelace. These are affluent, not agricultural, villages. Lovelace is named after Ada, the early mathematical pioneer, who lived at Horsley Towers - now a rather exclusive hotel. This territory all looks as if they belong to the heartland of Home Counties conservatism. Yet not one of these wards actually elected a Tory in the May 2023 Guildford borough elections. Instead the victors were, respectively, the Liberal Democrats, Residents for Guildford and Villages, and the Guildford Greenbelt Group.
As these names imply, there is a strong element of localism, especially in the face of possible new housing development. There were already signs that the Conservatives might face a tough challenge in the May 2019 local elections, when they made a net loss of no fewer than 26 seats on Guildford borough council, dropping from 35 councillors to nine. The Liberal Democrats made eight net gains, but the Residents for Guildford and Villages did even more damage, taking 15 council seats. But the Conservatives’ problems in both municipal and general elections here are far deeper than a NIMBY midterm protest vote. In 2023 the Conservative number of councillors held steady, but the Liberal Democrats made eight gains, essentially at the expense of ‘R4GV’. It is the LDs that the Tories need to worry about in the forthcoming general election. Guildford is, and has been on several previous occasions, a key marginal in parliamentary terms.
At least in its current administrative form, the county of Surrey has not been known in the past for a plethora of critical marginal electoral contests. As in 2019, it has usually returned a complete slate of Conservative MPs. However Guildford does to a considerable extent buck this trend. It has had a Liberal Democrat MP in recent memory, and figured high on that party’s target list last time, and will do again in 2024. Further spice was added by the candidature of the incumbent Tory MP Anne Milton as an ‘anti-Brexit’ independent. As elsewhere in Surrey at Esher & Walton, the outcome was in doubt until the declaration on election night; though in Guildford too, the result did eventually contribute to Boris Johnson’s overall majority of 80 to ‘get Brexit done’, despite its Remain vote of around 56% back in 2016.
In the event, it is arguable whether the 4,356 (7.3%) votes Anne Milton polled can be regarded as safeguarding the 3,337 majority achieved by her successor as official Conservative candidate, Angela Richardson, because it split the ‘Remain’ share, or whether Milton actually split the Tory vote itself. Probably it was a mixture of the two and therefore this did not determine the outcome of the contest. The Tories undoubtedly suffered such a large drop in majority because of Guildford’s pro-Remain tendencies, but perhaps held on because this was narrowly trumped by this affluent seat’s fear of a Corbyn Prime Ministership. Guildford is in the top echelon of seats for both higher managerial and higher professional occupations; and also for those with degree level education, an indicator which has recently worked against the Conservatives. As in Esher & Walton, it could be therefore argued that the ‘Brexit election’ of 2019 may well have proved to be the Liberal Democrats’ best chance for a while of gaining Guildford.
On the other hand it might also be recalled that in this case they did hold the seat from 2001 to 2005, when Sue Doughty was the MP, and also they have that solid base on both Guildford councils. Above all, the national Conservative level of popularity has plummeted since 2019, and Guildford is the kind of seat where tactical voting may apply effectively. At the least, even without the Milton factor, this seat should still be considered a very plausible potential Liberal Democrat target going into the next election. With their strong advances in Esher & Walton and generally across the county (where after May 2023 the Conservatives hold overall control of just one district level council), the days of Surrey not being blessed with marginals are over.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.4% 397/575
Owner occupied 64.9% 315/575
Private rented 21.9% 163/575
Social rented 13.2% 376/575
White 84.5% 365/575
Black 1.6% 259/575
Asian 8.1% 195/575
Managerial & professional 41.4% 90/575
Routine & Semi-routine 13.6% 545/575
Degree level 46.1% 56/575
No qualifications 10.6% 555/575
Students 17.5% 29/575
General Election 2019: Guildford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Angela Richardson 26,317 44.9 -9.7
Liberal Democrats Zöe Franklin 22,980 39.2 +15.3
Labour Anne Rouse 4,515 7.7 -11.3
Independent Anne Milton 4,356 7.4 N/A
Peace John Morris 483 0.8 +0.5
C Majority 3,337 5.7 -25.0
Turnout 58,651 75.5 +1.7
2019 electorate 77,729
Registered electors 77,729
Conservative hold
Swing 12.5 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The new Guildford seat will consist of
73.3% of Guildford
19.1% of Mole Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_325_Guildford_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 23708 | 45.1% |
| LD | 20591 | 39.2% |
| Lab | 4411 | 8.4% |
| Inds | 3677 | 7.0% |
| Green | 197 | 0.4% |
| Majority | 3117 | 5.9% |