Post by Robert Waller on Aug 5, 2023 9:24:04 GMT
The Wikipedia entry for the West Sussex constituency of Horsham described it as the “longest held Conservative seat”, because it had remained loyal and elected none but Tory MPs from 1880 to 2024. I am in general considerably impressed with the accuracy of the online encyclopaedia as well as its vast scope, but on this occasion I think this is questionable. Horsham may be the name of the seat now, and it was a single-member parliamentary borough in 1880, but in between there have been very significant boundary changes, and indeed name variations. From 1918 to 1945 there was a constituency called Horsham and Worthing, and then between 1974 and 1983 Horsham and Crawley. The reason for all this discontinuity is the rapid and long-standing population growth in these parts of Sussex – which indeed continues apace. By the time of the 2019 general election, Horsham’s electorate had reached 86,730 (according to The Times) and so there needed to be further boundary changes in the review that finally reported in June 2023.
Up to and including the 2019 general election the Horsham constituency included three wards from the Mid Sussex District: Ardingly & Balcombe, Copthorne & Worth and Crawley Down & Turners Hill. All this territory is to be moved into the new East Grinstead & Uckfield constituency, a reduction for Horsham of over 14,000 electors. In exchange, Horsham will take in one ward from within its own District that is now in Arundel & South Downs. This is another rural ward with multiple villages in its title: Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead (which is much smaller than East Grinstead, and not very near it). It shared its representation between Conservative and Liberal Democrat (a gain) in May 2023. This was not unusual in Horsham District, for overall the LDs gained 15 councillors and achieved an overall majority for the first time since 1995. The Tories lost 21, around two thirds of their total, and the resulting balance was 28 to 11 in favour of the yellow corner, plus 8 Greens (largely in wards in the constituency of Arundel & South Downs, though) and one Independent.
This pattern is very different from that which has pertained in parliamentary contests in the Horsham division. Apart from the anomalous Crawley, West Sussex is one of the most Tory of all the English counties: prosperous, highly owner occupied, with historically low levels of unemployment, very few single parent families and a small percentage of ethnic minorities – and going further back, heavily inclined to the Church of England rather than Nonconformist Protestantism, which accounts for the Liberal weakness before the First World War. This is a desirable place to live, as the rise in population indicates.
The town of Horsham itself, with its immediate suburbs, accounts for just over half of the electorate of the current Horsham seat, with a population of around 55,000 in 2018. A study of the map shows that the (much modernized) town centre is surrounded by largely post second world war suburban housing estates, such as Holbrook in the north west (increased from one ward to two in the most recent local government boundary changes in this area), and Roffey with its strong cricket club in the north east. To the west is Broadbridge Heath, its large industrial and retail estates conveniently situated for the A24 trunk road which connects to the motorway system via the A264 and the M23. What is more, there are still large housing developments in progress now, such as the one known as Faygate – though not actually in that village, but abutting the Crawley neighbourhood of Bewbush; all the same it is situated in the Horsham district and constituency ward of Colgate & Rusper. Also included is the small, but also growing (population over 10,000, up 25% 2011-21) town of Billingshurst. Horsham is predominantly an urban/suburban seat in terms of its electorate.
As well as the ever-expanding built up areas, this constituency contains a selection of attractive and privileged features of the southern English countryside. There is the relatively unknown but ancient and attractive St Leonard’s Forest, east and south east of Horsham. There are at least three prominent private schools: Christ’s Hospital, which does have a connection with providing quality education for some of more deprived background, as well as the aforementioned, and departing Worth and Ardingly.
As mentioned above, recent local elections have been far from strongly Conservative. In the December 2019 general election the Liberal Democrats nearly doubled their share from 11% to 23%, and in May 2023 they swept the Horsham town wards together with those in the contiguous suburbs of Roffey and Holbrook, along with expanding Broadbridge Heath and Southwater along the main north-south A24 road – where the national headquarters of the RSPCA are situated - and the small town of Billinghurst. They again won in (St Leonard’s) Forest. The Green candidate again topped the poll in Bramber, Lower Beeding & Woodmancote, as in 2019. The Conservatives held on only in a small minority of wards such as Colgate & Rusper, the site of the Faygate housing expansion, and Rudgwick near the Surrey border. However, it would be unwise to extrapolate from the 2023 (or indeed any) council elections to the parliamentary arena. The Liberal Democrats in particular often flatter to deceive with their extra strength in local contests, and the potent government of the UK is not at stake in municipal contests, which are often used to dig an incumbent administration in the ribs, particularly in midterm. This exaggerates the electoral problems the Conservatives face, which are certainly genuine; but are highly unlikely to extend to being thrashed in the Horsham constituency in 2024 as they were in the Horsham District in 2023.
In the December 2019 general election campaign posters for Jeremy Quin were far more common than for any other candidate (not that there were many signs of a vigorous contest) and he duly recorded his third consecutive majority of over 21,000 – falling slightly each time in each general election, but at a rate which if extrapolated would threaten a change of party in about twenty elections’ time. But electoral trends are now much more volatile.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.7% 268/575
Owner occupied 72.7% 112/575
Private rented 15.6% 408/575
Social rented 11.7% 441/575
White 92.4% 251/575
Black 1.1% 315/575
Asian 3.4% 323/575
Managerial & professional 43.1% 64/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.3% 474/575
Degree level 37.2% 163/575
No qualifications 11.9% 538/575
Students 5.0% 391/575
General Election 2019: Horsham
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jeremy Quin 35,900 56.8 -2.7
Liberal Democrats Louise Potter 14,773 23.4 +11.1
Labour Michael Jones 9,424 14.9 -6.8
Green Catherine Ross 2,668 4.2 +1.2
Peace Jim Duggan 477 0.8 +0.4
C Majority 21,127 33.4 -4.5
2019 electorate 86,730
Turnout 63,202 72.9 -2.0
Conservative hold
Swing 6.9 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Horsham will consist of
83.4% of Horsham
5.4% of Arundel and South Downs
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_331_Horsham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Up to and including the 2019 general election the Horsham constituency included three wards from the Mid Sussex District: Ardingly & Balcombe, Copthorne & Worth and Crawley Down & Turners Hill. All this territory is to be moved into the new East Grinstead & Uckfield constituency, a reduction for Horsham of over 14,000 electors. In exchange, Horsham will take in one ward from within its own District that is now in Arundel & South Downs. This is another rural ward with multiple villages in its title: Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead (which is much smaller than East Grinstead, and not very near it). It shared its representation between Conservative and Liberal Democrat (a gain) in May 2023. This was not unusual in Horsham District, for overall the LDs gained 15 councillors and achieved an overall majority for the first time since 1995. The Tories lost 21, around two thirds of their total, and the resulting balance was 28 to 11 in favour of the yellow corner, plus 8 Greens (largely in wards in the constituency of Arundel & South Downs, though) and one Independent.
This pattern is very different from that which has pertained in parliamentary contests in the Horsham division. Apart from the anomalous Crawley, West Sussex is one of the most Tory of all the English counties: prosperous, highly owner occupied, with historically low levels of unemployment, very few single parent families and a small percentage of ethnic minorities – and going further back, heavily inclined to the Church of England rather than Nonconformist Protestantism, which accounts for the Liberal weakness before the First World War. This is a desirable place to live, as the rise in population indicates.
The town of Horsham itself, with its immediate suburbs, accounts for just over half of the electorate of the current Horsham seat, with a population of around 55,000 in 2018. A study of the map shows that the (much modernized) town centre is surrounded by largely post second world war suburban housing estates, such as Holbrook in the north west (increased from one ward to two in the most recent local government boundary changes in this area), and Roffey with its strong cricket club in the north east. To the west is Broadbridge Heath, its large industrial and retail estates conveniently situated for the A24 trunk road which connects to the motorway system via the A264 and the M23. What is more, there are still large housing developments in progress now, such as the one known as Faygate – though not actually in that village, but abutting the Crawley neighbourhood of Bewbush; all the same it is situated in the Horsham district and constituency ward of Colgate & Rusper. Also included is the small, but also growing (population over 10,000, up 25% 2011-21) town of Billingshurst. Horsham is predominantly an urban/suburban seat in terms of its electorate.
As well as the ever-expanding built up areas, this constituency contains a selection of attractive and privileged features of the southern English countryside. There is the relatively unknown but ancient and attractive St Leonard’s Forest, east and south east of Horsham. There are at least three prominent private schools: Christ’s Hospital, which does have a connection with providing quality education for some of more deprived background, as well as the aforementioned, and departing Worth and Ardingly.
As mentioned above, recent local elections have been far from strongly Conservative. In the December 2019 general election the Liberal Democrats nearly doubled their share from 11% to 23%, and in May 2023 they swept the Horsham town wards together with those in the contiguous suburbs of Roffey and Holbrook, along with expanding Broadbridge Heath and Southwater along the main north-south A24 road – where the national headquarters of the RSPCA are situated - and the small town of Billinghurst. They again won in (St Leonard’s) Forest. The Green candidate again topped the poll in Bramber, Lower Beeding & Woodmancote, as in 2019. The Conservatives held on only in a small minority of wards such as Colgate & Rusper, the site of the Faygate housing expansion, and Rudgwick near the Surrey border. However, it would be unwise to extrapolate from the 2023 (or indeed any) council elections to the parliamentary arena. The Liberal Democrats in particular often flatter to deceive with their extra strength in local contests, and the potent government of the UK is not at stake in municipal contests, which are often used to dig an incumbent administration in the ribs, particularly in midterm. This exaggerates the electoral problems the Conservatives face, which are certainly genuine; but are highly unlikely to extend to being thrashed in the Horsham constituency in 2024 as they were in the Horsham District in 2023.
In the December 2019 general election campaign posters for Jeremy Quin were far more common than for any other candidate (not that there were many signs of a vigorous contest) and he duly recorded his third consecutive majority of over 21,000 – falling slightly each time in each general election, but at a rate which if extrapolated would threaten a change of party in about twenty elections’ time. But electoral trends are now much more volatile.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.7% 268/575
Owner occupied 72.7% 112/575
Private rented 15.6% 408/575
Social rented 11.7% 441/575
White 92.4% 251/575
Black 1.1% 315/575
Asian 3.4% 323/575
Managerial & professional 43.1% 64/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.3% 474/575
Degree level 37.2% 163/575
No qualifications 11.9% 538/575
Students 5.0% 391/575
General Election 2019: Horsham
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jeremy Quin 35,900 56.8 -2.7
Liberal Democrats Louise Potter 14,773 23.4 +11.1
Labour Michael Jones 9,424 14.9 -6.8
Green Catherine Ross 2,668 4.2 +1.2
Peace Jim Duggan 477 0.8 +0.4
C Majority 21,127 33.4 -4.5
2019 electorate 86,730
Turnout 63,202 72.9 -2.0
Conservative hold
Swing 6.9 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Horsham will consist of
83.4% of Horsham
5.4% of Arundel and South Downs
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_331_Horsham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 31155 | 55.8% |
| LD | 13802 | 24.7% |
| Lab | 8736 | 15.6% |
| Green | 1680 | 3.0% |
| Oth | 477 | 0.9% |
| | ||
| Majority | 17353 | 31.1% |