Post by John Chanin on Aug 5, 2023 7:02:36 GMT
Birmingham Yardley is a largely unremarkable suburban constituency in the south east of the city, albeit one with an interesting history of political twists. Much of the constituency is made up of inter war and post war low rise housing, predominately semi-detached, but with significant areas of terraced housing, some of it quite a bit older. It is a predominately working class area but with a fairly large numbers of skilled or semi skilled workers and numerous reasonably well off retirees it is a little more prosperous than some of the statistics suggest. It no longer has a White British majority but is evenly split with a growing Asian (mostly Muslim) population. The boundary changes here will leave this recognisably the same seat. The anomalous 3000 voters in Stechford north of the west coast mainline are transferred to Hodge Hill, along with the Garretts Green ward south of the railway, which forms the north-east corner of Yardley. In exchange Small Heath ward comes in, uniting most of Small Heath in this seat, and the seat is realigned to the more sensible new ward boundaries. Overall just over 10,000 voters will move each way. The revised seat will however have a significantly larger muslim population.
The seat can roughly be divided into 5 parts. In the north is Yardley proper, stretching into the south side of Stechford with its boundary along the West Coast mainline. This is classic middling Birmingham - median for deprivation, made up of low-rise inter war housing, mostly terraces here, with small council estates scattered amidst the owner-occupation. The northern end around Stechford station is rather different, with older terraces, and more Labour votes. There are more muslims in the west, and this section of the community is growing, as elsewhere in Birmingham. In the east is Sheldon, adjoining Birmingham airport to the east, and the Solihull districts of Lyndon and Elmdon to the south. The area is whiter and more up market than Yardley, with its endless streets of semi-detached modern and inter-war houses, and is the Liberal Democrat fortress in the city. South of the main Coventry Road are Acocks Green and South Yardley. The latter is similar to Sheldon, and neighbouring Lyndon, both in built form, its politics, and its social composition. Acocks Green has more variety. The centre of the area has a good suburban shopping centre and generally good housing. But to the north of the Chiltern railway there are some pretty grim terraces and some council housing. To the west is Tyseley - a rundown area, separated from Hay Mills, north of the Coventry Road, by a large industrial estate. The area around Fox Hollies park in the south also has much council housing. Acocks Green is more competitive between Labour and Liberal Democrat at local level, and has a growing muslim population, as families move down the Warwick Road into better quality housing.
The new addition to the seat is (most of) Small Heath. The area around the park, where Eid is celebrated each year, next to the large Small Heath mosque, was already in the seat. This is a densely occupied ward of almost entirely private terraced housing, that covers the eastern two-thirds of Small Heath. It sits to the north and west of the river Cole and the Grand Union corridor where the city’s incinerator looms over the east of the ward. Much of the housing is pleasant and middle-class. The old Coventry Road (now bypassed) with its shopping centre runs through the middle of the ward. The ward is a core part of muslim east Birmingham with 86% muslim at the 2021 census and just 5.9% white. It is though nothing like as deprived as muslim areas to the north and south and there are a lot of small businessmen and self-employed here. Politically Small Heath was the centre for the Peoples Justice Party, a Kashmiri party with seats on the council in the early part of the century, and the continuing substantial minority Liberal Democrat vote here represents the continuing PJP, as well as the more middle class nature of the ward.
For much of the later half of the 20th century Yardley was a classic bellwether seat picking the same winner as the country in every election from 1959 to 1987. The constituency would have likely remained a typical marginal, albeit with a Labour lean, for considerably longer but for the decision by the Liberal/SDP alliance in early to mid 1980's to focus resources on this constituency. By 1992 all the local councillors were Liberals. One of them was John Hemming, who turned the parliamentary seat into a 3-way marginal at the 1992 election. Unsurprisingly they made no progress in 1997, but with the collapse of the Conservatives locally, Hemming came a clear second in 2001, winning the seat in 2005 after the retirement of Labour’s Estelle Morris. As elsewhere the coalition proved disastrous for Liberal Democrat fortunes, with Labour making a comeback at council level, and winning easily at the 2015 General Election. Subsequently although the Liberal Democrats have made a comeback at local elections, their parliamentary vote has drained away. The remote chances of a Liberal Democrat comeback have been made even less likely by the arrival of Small Heath, and despite the Conservative move into second place, and the now distant Conservative history, there is no chance whatever of them winning this seat. The MP here is Jess Phillips, former Women’s Aid worker and Birmingham councillor, who has developed a reputation as an independent minded back bencher.
Census data: Owner-occupied 59% (416/575 in England & Wales), private rented 23% (152nd), social rented 19% (189th).
: White 44%(549th), Black 6%(106th), South Asian 37%(15th), Mixed 4%(107th), Other 8%(86th)
: Managerial & professional 27% (551st), Routine & Semi-routine 38% (56th)
: Degree 24% (520th), Minimal qualifications 39% (14th)
: Students 10% (91st), Over 65: 12.5% (503rd)
: Muslim 43% (10th)
Boundaries: The new seat is made up of 85% from Yardley, and 15% from Hodge Hill
83% of the old Yardley seat is in the new one, with 14% going to Hodge Hill, and 3% to Hall Green & Moseley.
The seat can roughly be divided into 5 parts. In the north is Yardley proper, stretching into the south side of Stechford with its boundary along the West Coast mainline. This is classic middling Birmingham - median for deprivation, made up of low-rise inter war housing, mostly terraces here, with small council estates scattered amidst the owner-occupation. The northern end around Stechford station is rather different, with older terraces, and more Labour votes. There are more muslims in the west, and this section of the community is growing, as elsewhere in Birmingham. In the east is Sheldon, adjoining Birmingham airport to the east, and the Solihull districts of Lyndon and Elmdon to the south. The area is whiter and more up market than Yardley, with its endless streets of semi-detached modern and inter-war houses, and is the Liberal Democrat fortress in the city. South of the main Coventry Road are Acocks Green and South Yardley. The latter is similar to Sheldon, and neighbouring Lyndon, both in built form, its politics, and its social composition. Acocks Green has more variety. The centre of the area has a good suburban shopping centre and generally good housing. But to the north of the Chiltern railway there are some pretty grim terraces and some council housing. To the west is Tyseley - a rundown area, separated from Hay Mills, north of the Coventry Road, by a large industrial estate. The area around Fox Hollies park in the south also has much council housing. Acocks Green is more competitive between Labour and Liberal Democrat at local level, and has a growing muslim population, as families move down the Warwick Road into better quality housing.
The new addition to the seat is (most of) Small Heath. The area around the park, where Eid is celebrated each year, next to the large Small Heath mosque, was already in the seat. This is a densely occupied ward of almost entirely private terraced housing, that covers the eastern two-thirds of Small Heath. It sits to the north and west of the river Cole and the Grand Union corridor where the city’s incinerator looms over the east of the ward. Much of the housing is pleasant and middle-class. The old Coventry Road (now bypassed) with its shopping centre runs through the middle of the ward. The ward is a core part of muslim east Birmingham with 86% muslim at the 2021 census and just 5.9% white. It is though nothing like as deprived as muslim areas to the north and south and there are a lot of small businessmen and self-employed here. Politically Small Heath was the centre for the Peoples Justice Party, a Kashmiri party with seats on the council in the early part of the century, and the continuing substantial minority Liberal Democrat vote here represents the continuing PJP, as well as the more middle class nature of the ward.
For much of the later half of the 20th century Yardley was a classic bellwether seat picking the same winner as the country in every election from 1959 to 1987. The constituency would have likely remained a typical marginal, albeit with a Labour lean, for considerably longer but for the decision by the Liberal/SDP alliance in early to mid 1980's to focus resources on this constituency. By 1992 all the local councillors were Liberals. One of them was John Hemming, who turned the parliamentary seat into a 3-way marginal at the 1992 election. Unsurprisingly they made no progress in 1997, but with the collapse of the Conservatives locally, Hemming came a clear second in 2001, winning the seat in 2005 after the retirement of Labour’s Estelle Morris. As elsewhere the coalition proved disastrous for Liberal Democrat fortunes, with Labour making a comeback at council level, and winning easily at the 2015 General Election. Subsequently although the Liberal Democrats have made a comeback at local elections, their parliamentary vote has drained away. The remote chances of a Liberal Democrat comeback have been made even less likely by the arrival of Small Heath, and despite the Conservative move into second place, and the now distant Conservative history, there is no chance whatever of them winning this seat. The MP here is Jess Phillips, former Women’s Aid worker and Birmingham councillor, who has developed a reputation as an independent minded back bencher.
Census data: Owner-occupied 59% (416/575 in England & Wales), private rented 23% (152nd), social rented 19% (189th).
: White 44%(549th), Black 6%(106th), South Asian 37%(15th), Mixed 4%(107th), Other 8%(86th)
: Managerial & professional 27% (551st), Routine & Semi-routine 38% (56th)
: Degree 24% (520th), Minimal qualifications 39% (14th)
: Students 10% (91st), Over 65: 12.5% (503rd)
: Muslim 43% (10th)
Boundaries: The new seat is made up of 85% from Yardley, and 15% from Hodge Hill
83% of the old Yardley seat is in the new one, with 14% going to Hodge Hill, and 3% to Hall Green & Moseley.
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Labour | 25,398 | 57.1 | 23,379 | 54.8 | 24,349 | 58.1 |
Conservative | 8,824 | 19.8 | 12,720 | 29.8 | 11,208 | 26.8 |
Liberal Democrat | 7,984 | 17.9 | 3,754 | 8.8 | 3,743 | 8.9 |
Brexit | 2,246 | 5.3 | 2,103 | 5.0 | ||
Green | 280 | 0.6 | 579 | 1.4 | 503 | 1.2 |
Other | 100 | 0.2 | ||||
| Majority | 16,574 | 37.2 | 10,659 | 25.0 | 13,141 | 31.4 |