Post by Robert Waller on Aug 4, 2023 19:00:39 GMT
In the boundary changes confirmed in the final report of the Commission in June 2023, the over-sized constituency of Surrey Heath (electorate at the 2019 election 81,349) has been cut down by the transfer of three wards at its southern end – Ash Vale, Ash Wharf and Ash South & Tongham – to form part of a Godalming & Ash seat, most of which is drawn from the existing South West Surrey. This is logical enough, as the present Surrey Heath looks a bit like an old fashioned football rattle in shape, with the Ash area former the tip of the handle. Also all of this terrain is in Guildford borough and most of it was in the Woking constituency before 1997. However as this removes over 15,000 electors, two wards with 4,500 voters are added from Woking: Normandy and Pirbright. This is also logical enough, as Pirbright in particular is known for its Army Training Centre camp, which, as we shall see, fits very well with the military tone of Surrey Heath as a whole. The notional political effect is to reduce the Conservative majority by a couple of thousand because of the smaller electorate but if anything to make it slightly safer (still) in percentage terms
There is indeed heathland in the north-western corner of Surrey; one passes through it as one leaves London on the M3 motorway, soldiers exercise on it near Chobham and Bisley, which is the heart of rifle shooting in England, and in places one can forget that this is actually in the heart of the Home Counties. In fact, though, this constituency is thoroughly urban, or at least suburban, as far as its electorate is concerned. The seat is based on the communities of Camberley and Frimley, with ballast provided by smaller places such as Bagshot and Windlesham, site of some of the most expensive houses in the country, the property of such as Arab sheikhs and Sir Brian May, astrophysicist and Queen guitarist.
This sandy-soiled territory is very heavily owner-occupied (75% in 2021, 62nd highest in England and Wales), middle class (23rd in higher managers), highly affluent and materialistic (the seat ranks in the top five for two and more cars, and indeed for three or more cars per household). There is a strong military influence – the seat is sandwiched between Sandhurst and Aldershot and includes the once notorious Deepcut barracks, now a housing estate as well as part of the site of the Sandhurst Royal Military Academy, just north of the A30 as it passes by Camberley. There has usually been little unemployment (only 1.0% long term unemployed in the 2011 census figures by constituency). All this adds up to a recipe for conservatism, and Conservatism. In fact it was claimed in 2014 to be the most right wing constituency in Britain based on responses to the British Election Study, on the basis of their views favouring low taxes and government spending cuts (for those interested the most left wing constituency was said to be Glasgow North East).
Yet it is not quite so monolithic as may be thought. Under the first MP for this seat after it was created in 1997, Nick Hawkins, the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats declined to 10,000 in 2001. In 2004 Hawkins was deselected, and since 2005 Surrey Heath has re-elected the ubiquitous Tory high flyer Michael Gove. In 2019 his majority was 18,349, but the Liberal Democrats did advance substantially as in several other Surrey seats, in this case improving from under 11% to over 27%. Nor are the Conservatives anywhere near rock solid on Surrey Heath council, which is almost all still to be included in the constituency In May 2019, the tranche of local authority elections before the December general election (and before the suspension of elections due to the Covid crisis), they nearly lost control of Surrey Heath council. When two Conservative councillors in Camberley resigned the whip in January 2020 the council officially passed to no overall control.
Then in May 2023 the party was thrashed, in very dramatic fashion. The Liberal Democrats gained no fewer than 14 seats, the Tories lost 12 - and the new lineup was LD 24 C 6 Ind 3 Lab 2. The Liberal Democrats gains covered wards of all kinds in all parts of the district: Bisley & West End, Frimley, and Town, Watchetts and Parkside in Camberley. They retained their seats in Frimley Green (after a delayed poll due to the death of a candidate during the May campaign) and Heatherside (a large sprawl of 1960s/70s private housing). The LDs also now won all three seats in Mytchett & Deepcut, and knocked the Greens off the council by defeating their two councillors in Lightwater near the M3. Independents returned all three in Windlesham & Chobham. Finally, Labour gained two seats from the Tories in another Camberley ward, St Michael’s, west of the town centre, which has the greatest concentration of Asian residents in the borough. However they did lose their one previous seat in Old Dean, the only real 'council estate ward' in the seat, on the other (north) side of the A30 from the bulk of Camberley – this was a Conservative gain, a microcosm of the electoral transformation of the white working class. The other Tory holds were in Bagshot and St Paul’s, Camberley.
There is a possibility that Michael Gove may be in the line of fire in the next general election, though it seems unlikely he will be in severe danger of losing his place in the House of Commons, despite the dramatic events in recent local council contests. When it comes to electing a government of the United Kingdom, Surrey Heath’s sense of self-interest is likely to keep the Conservatives safe. In 2019, Brexit was the dominant issue, and this seat had voted around the average fairly even split in 2016. On almost every other indicator it is well to the Conservative end of the spectrum. Other parties, principally the Liberal Democrats, may fancy some target shooting here - but it would be at very long range.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.4% 282/575
Owner occupied 74.7% 62/575
Private rented 15.8% 398/575
Social rented 9.5% 534/575
White 85.5% 356/575
Black 1.7% 256/575
Asian 8.5% 187/535
Managerial & professional 43.8% 53/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.1% 508/575
Degree level 38.8% 133/575
No qualifications 13.0% 507/575
Students 5.3% 341/575
General Election 2019: Surrey Heath
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Gove 34,358 58.6 -5.6
Liberal Democrats Alasdair Pinkerton 16,009 27.3 +16.4
Labour Brahma Mohanty 5,407 9.2 -11.8
2,252 3.8 -0.1
UKIP David Roe 628 1.1 N/A
C Majority 18,349 31.3 -11.8
2019 electorate 81,349
Turnout 58,654 72.1 +0.5
Conservative hold Swing 11.0 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Surrey Heath will consist of
81.3% of Surrey Heath
5.9% of Woking
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_363_Surrey%20Heath_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
There is indeed heathland in the north-western corner of Surrey; one passes through it as one leaves London on the M3 motorway, soldiers exercise on it near Chobham and Bisley, which is the heart of rifle shooting in England, and in places one can forget that this is actually in the heart of the Home Counties. In fact, though, this constituency is thoroughly urban, or at least suburban, as far as its electorate is concerned. The seat is based on the communities of Camberley and Frimley, with ballast provided by smaller places such as Bagshot and Windlesham, site of some of the most expensive houses in the country, the property of such as Arab sheikhs and Sir Brian May, astrophysicist and Queen guitarist.
This sandy-soiled territory is very heavily owner-occupied (75% in 2021, 62nd highest in England and Wales), middle class (23rd in higher managers), highly affluent and materialistic (the seat ranks in the top five for two and more cars, and indeed for three or more cars per household). There is a strong military influence – the seat is sandwiched between Sandhurst and Aldershot and includes the once notorious Deepcut barracks, now a housing estate as well as part of the site of the Sandhurst Royal Military Academy, just north of the A30 as it passes by Camberley. There has usually been little unemployment (only 1.0% long term unemployed in the 2011 census figures by constituency). All this adds up to a recipe for conservatism, and Conservatism. In fact it was claimed in 2014 to be the most right wing constituency in Britain based on responses to the British Election Study, on the basis of their views favouring low taxes and government spending cuts (for those interested the most left wing constituency was said to be Glasgow North East).
Yet it is not quite so monolithic as may be thought. Under the first MP for this seat after it was created in 1997, Nick Hawkins, the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats declined to 10,000 in 2001. In 2004 Hawkins was deselected, and since 2005 Surrey Heath has re-elected the ubiquitous Tory high flyer Michael Gove. In 2019 his majority was 18,349, but the Liberal Democrats did advance substantially as in several other Surrey seats, in this case improving from under 11% to over 27%. Nor are the Conservatives anywhere near rock solid on Surrey Heath council, which is almost all still to be included in the constituency In May 2019, the tranche of local authority elections before the December general election (and before the suspension of elections due to the Covid crisis), they nearly lost control of Surrey Heath council. When two Conservative councillors in Camberley resigned the whip in January 2020 the council officially passed to no overall control.
Then in May 2023 the party was thrashed, in very dramatic fashion. The Liberal Democrats gained no fewer than 14 seats, the Tories lost 12 - and the new lineup was LD 24 C 6 Ind 3 Lab 2. The Liberal Democrats gains covered wards of all kinds in all parts of the district: Bisley & West End, Frimley, and Town, Watchetts and Parkside in Camberley. They retained their seats in Frimley Green (after a delayed poll due to the death of a candidate during the May campaign) and Heatherside (a large sprawl of 1960s/70s private housing). The LDs also now won all three seats in Mytchett & Deepcut, and knocked the Greens off the council by defeating their two councillors in Lightwater near the M3. Independents returned all three in Windlesham & Chobham. Finally, Labour gained two seats from the Tories in another Camberley ward, St Michael’s, west of the town centre, which has the greatest concentration of Asian residents in the borough. However they did lose their one previous seat in Old Dean, the only real 'council estate ward' in the seat, on the other (north) side of the A30 from the bulk of Camberley – this was a Conservative gain, a microcosm of the electoral transformation of the white working class. The other Tory holds were in Bagshot and St Paul’s, Camberley.
There is a possibility that Michael Gove may be in the line of fire in the next general election, though it seems unlikely he will be in severe danger of losing his place in the House of Commons, despite the dramatic events in recent local council contests. When it comes to electing a government of the United Kingdom, Surrey Heath’s sense of self-interest is likely to keep the Conservatives safe. In 2019, Brexit was the dominant issue, and this seat had voted around the average fairly even split in 2016. On almost every other indicator it is well to the Conservative end of the spectrum. Other parties, principally the Liberal Democrats, may fancy some target shooting here - but it would be at very long range.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.4% 282/575
Owner occupied 74.7% 62/575
Private rented 15.8% 398/575
Social rented 9.5% 534/575
White 85.5% 356/575
Black 1.7% 256/575
Asian 8.5% 187/535
Managerial & professional 43.8% 53/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.1% 508/575
Degree level 38.8% 133/575
No qualifications 13.0% 507/575
Students 5.3% 341/575
General Election 2019: Surrey Heath
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Gove 34,358 58.6 -5.6
Liberal Democrats Alasdair Pinkerton 16,009 27.3 +16.4
Labour Brahma Mohanty 5,407 9.2 -11.8
2,252 3.8 -0.1
UKIP David Roe 628 1.1 N/A
C Majority 18,349 31.3 -11.8
2019 electorate 81,349
Turnout 58,654 72.1 +0.5
Conservative hold Swing 11.0 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Surrey Heath will consist of
81.3% of Surrey Heath
5.9% of Woking
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_363_Surrey%20Heath_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 30161 | 57.9% |
| LD | 14609 | 28.0% |
| Lab | 4888 | 9.4% |
| Grn | 1845 | 3.5% |
| Oth | 628 | 1.2% |
| Majority | 15552 | 29.8% |