Post by Robert Waller on Aug 4, 2023 16:20:30 GMT
In the Boundary Commission for England's initial proposals for the North West region, the proposed Congleton constituency reflected the need to lose a ward to bring its electorate down from the 80,000 plus it had attained by 2019. The proposed seat no longer included the Dane Valley ward (electorate just over 8,000 and transferred to Tatton) which includes Holmes Chapel and Goostrey, including the main radio telescope dish at Jodrell Bank, whose site is actually split with Gawsworth ward in the Macclesfield seat; but aside from that it was recommended to be unchanged, except to realign the constituency boundary with local government ward changes.
However in the revised and final reports, after the inquiry process, a rather more radical change has emerged. The Dane Valley ward has been returned to Congleton, but in exchange the seat’s third largest town, Middlewich, has been moved into the new Mid Cheshire constituency, along with its 11,200 electors. In one way this is odd, as the rest of Mid Cheshire consists entirely of wards of the unitary Chester & West Cheshire local authority, whereas Middlewich is in Cheshire East, thus making it an ‘orphan ward’. On the other hand it is united with its fellow towns in the ‘salt mining belt’, Winsford and Northwich. In return Congleton gained some voters by encompassing the whole of the Brereton Heath ward, previously split with Eddisbury. The name remains plain Congleton, although the council of that name has been subsumed into the unitary, and the town itself isn’t much bigger than Sandbach. The brevity, though, will be appreciated by some. Overall, this change of mind by the Commission should somewhat benefit the Conservative party, in a seat in which they are already in command.
The constituency, which covers a segment of south-east Cheshire including the small towns of the eponymous Congleton, Sandbach, and Alsager, has been in Conservative hands since its creation in the boundary review that came into force in 1983. No other party has really come close to taking Congleton, yet somehow it has never seemed to be monolithically Tory, especially when local election results are taken into account. Originally, the seat was coterminous with the Borough of Congleton, which the Liberal Democrats controlled from 1991-92 and again from 1994-2002. In 2009 Cheshire was divided into unitary authorities, and the Tories have still not dominated the divisions therein that are in this seat. In May 2023, for example, Labour won two of the four in Sandbach (losing one to an Independent) and one each in Alsager and Congleton West as well as topping the poll in Middlewich, while the Liberal Democrats returned the other two councillors in Alsager though lost one in Congleton East. The Conservatives had a clear lead in the three predominantly rural sections, Brereton, Dane Valley, and Odd Rode, but not by overwhelming margins (11% from LD, 6% from LD and 6% from Labour respectively) plus similarly narrow wins in Sandbach Town, Congleton East and Congleton West (in both of which they took two of three available spots).
A survey of the general election results since 1983 does reveal the main reason for the apparent contradiction with the lack of consistent Conservative success in local elections here. It is the divided opposition between Liberal Democrat and Labour, both of which have reliable pockets of strength in Congleton constituency. From 1983 to 2010 the Conservatives never achieved a 50% share of the vote, reaching a low of 41% in 1997 – when the Lib Dem got 29.7% and Labour 27.6%. Then in 2005 the Tory share was 45%, Labour 28%, LD 27%. Sometimes Labour have finished clearly in second place, sometimes the Liberal Democrats, but there never has seemed to be a clear opportunity for tactical voting.
The levels of support for the three main parties are explicable. Labour has traditionally done best in Middlewich; as the suffix –wich implies, this was once a centre for salt mining, and to an extent shares the left wing preferences of mineral extraction workers. Alsager near the Staffordshire border, where the Liberal Democrats are strongest, was the site of a university campus, one of those belonging to Manchester Metropolitan, though moved to Crewe from 2006. The mixed Sandbach (home to 22,000 souls) had industrial origins, silk mills and the original home of Foden’s lorries (only the Foden’s Brass Band remains). Congleton itself (population 26,000) is an old market town and also once made silk like its neighbour to the north, Macclesfield, though now its reduced manufacturing sector includes airbags and golf balls. The smaller communities like Holmes Chapel are more fertile for the Conservatives. Most of the seat spreads across the Cheshire Plain below the foothills of the Peak District, the most notable feature of the view being the dishes of the Jodrell Bank observatory .
In the most recent general elections, 2015 through 2019, the Conservatives have achieved successively their strongest performances in the constituency, 53.3%, 56.6% and in December 2019 their best ever, 59.0%. The referendum result in 2016 is estimated to be close to the national 52-48 Leave margin, but the Liberal Democrats were done in by their participation in the coalition (dropping from 32% to 9% 2010-15) and the seat’s demographics have not favoured Corbyn’s brand of Labour party: it is not particularly wealthy, but it is high up the list for white residents, UK born, and its age structure is significantly older than average. It has remarkably few private housing renters, in the bottom 15 constituencies in England and Wales. The removal of Middlewich has made it even more middle class, entering the top 100 seats for professional and managerial occupations. From 1983 for 27 years Congleton was represented by Anne Winterton, wife of the Macclesfield MP. Since then Fiona Bruce (not the TV newsreader) has taken over and the Conservative position has further strengthened. Unless Jodrell Bank identifies a threat from outer space, it looks as if she will remain the member here as long as she wishes.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 24.4% 93/575
Owner occupied 77.8% 22/575
Private rented 11.5% 561/575
Social rented 10.7% 494/575
White 96.8% 83/575
Black 0.3% 495/575
Asian 1.2% 490/575
Managerial & professional 41.3% 92/575
Routine & Semi-routine 19.6% 431/575
Degree level 37.4% 154/575
No qualifications 14.2% 455/575
Students 4.5% 498/575
General election 2019: Congleton
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Fiona Bruce 33,747 59.0 +2.4
Labour Jo Dale 15,186 26.5 –7.6
Liberal Democrats Paul Duffy 6,026 10.5 +5.4
Green Richard McCarthy 1,616 2.8 +1.0
Animal Welfare Jane Smith 658 1.1 +1.1
C Majority 18,591 32.5 +10.1
2019 electorate 80,930
Turnout 57,233 70.7 –2.6
Conservative hold
Swing +5.0 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Congleton seat will consist of
86.1% of Congleton
0.3% of Eddisbury
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_231_Congleton_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
However in the revised and final reports, after the inquiry process, a rather more radical change has emerged. The Dane Valley ward has been returned to Congleton, but in exchange the seat’s third largest town, Middlewich, has been moved into the new Mid Cheshire constituency, along with its 11,200 electors. In one way this is odd, as the rest of Mid Cheshire consists entirely of wards of the unitary Chester & West Cheshire local authority, whereas Middlewich is in Cheshire East, thus making it an ‘orphan ward’. On the other hand it is united with its fellow towns in the ‘salt mining belt’, Winsford and Northwich. In return Congleton gained some voters by encompassing the whole of the Brereton Heath ward, previously split with Eddisbury. The name remains plain Congleton, although the council of that name has been subsumed into the unitary, and the town itself isn’t much bigger than Sandbach. The brevity, though, will be appreciated by some. Overall, this change of mind by the Commission should somewhat benefit the Conservative party, in a seat in which they are already in command.
The constituency, which covers a segment of south-east Cheshire including the small towns of the eponymous Congleton, Sandbach, and Alsager, has been in Conservative hands since its creation in the boundary review that came into force in 1983. No other party has really come close to taking Congleton, yet somehow it has never seemed to be monolithically Tory, especially when local election results are taken into account. Originally, the seat was coterminous with the Borough of Congleton, which the Liberal Democrats controlled from 1991-92 and again from 1994-2002. In 2009 Cheshire was divided into unitary authorities, and the Tories have still not dominated the divisions therein that are in this seat. In May 2023, for example, Labour won two of the four in Sandbach (losing one to an Independent) and one each in Alsager and Congleton West as well as topping the poll in Middlewich, while the Liberal Democrats returned the other two councillors in Alsager though lost one in Congleton East. The Conservatives had a clear lead in the three predominantly rural sections, Brereton, Dane Valley, and Odd Rode, but not by overwhelming margins (11% from LD, 6% from LD and 6% from Labour respectively) plus similarly narrow wins in Sandbach Town, Congleton East and Congleton West (in both of which they took two of three available spots).
A survey of the general election results since 1983 does reveal the main reason for the apparent contradiction with the lack of consistent Conservative success in local elections here. It is the divided opposition between Liberal Democrat and Labour, both of which have reliable pockets of strength in Congleton constituency. From 1983 to 2010 the Conservatives never achieved a 50% share of the vote, reaching a low of 41% in 1997 – when the Lib Dem got 29.7% and Labour 27.6%. Then in 2005 the Tory share was 45%, Labour 28%, LD 27%. Sometimes Labour have finished clearly in second place, sometimes the Liberal Democrats, but there never has seemed to be a clear opportunity for tactical voting.
The levels of support for the three main parties are explicable. Labour has traditionally done best in Middlewich; as the suffix –wich implies, this was once a centre for salt mining, and to an extent shares the left wing preferences of mineral extraction workers. Alsager near the Staffordshire border, where the Liberal Democrats are strongest, was the site of a university campus, one of those belonging to Manchester Metropolitan, though moved to Crewe from 2006. The mixed Sandbach (home to 22,000 souls) had industrial origins, silk mills and the original home of Foden’s lorries (only the Foden’s Brass Band remains). Congleton itself (population 26,000) is an old market town and also once made silk like its neighbour to the north, Macclesfield, though now its reduced manufacturing sector includes airbags and golf balls. The smaller communities like Holmes Chapel are more fertile for the Conservatives. Most of the seat spreads across the Cheshire Plain below the foothills of the Peak District, the most notable feature of the view being the dishes of the Jodrell Bank observatory .
In the most recent general elections, 2015 through 2019, the Conservatives have achieved successively their strongest performances in the constituency, 53.3%, 56.6% and in December 2019 their best ever, 59.0%. The referendum result in 2016 is estimated to be close to the national 52-48 Leave margin, but the Liberal Democrats were done in by their participation in the coalition (dropping from 32% to 9% 2010-15) and the seat’s demographics have not favoured Corbyn’s brand of Labour party: it is not particularly wealthy, but it is high up the list for white residents, UK born, and its age structure is significantly older than average. It has remarkably few private housing renters, in the bottom 15 constituencies in England and Wales. The removal of Middlewich has made it even more middle class, entering the top 100 seats for professional and managerial occupations. From 1983 for 27 years Congleton was represented by Anne Winterton, wife of the Macclesfield MP. Since then Fiona Bruce (not the TV newsreader) has taken over and the Conservative position has further strengthened. Unless Jodrell Bank identifies a threat from outer space, it looks as if she will remain the member here as long as she wishes.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 24.4% 93/575
Owner occupied 77.8% 22/575
Private rented 11.5% 561/575
Social rented 10.7% 494/575
White 96.8% 83/575
Black 0.3% 495/575
Asian 1.2% 490/575
Managerial & professional 41.3% 92/575
Routine & Semi-routine 19.6% 431/575
Degree level 37.4% 154/575
No qualifications 14.2% 455/575
Students 4.5% 498/575
General election 2019: Congleton
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Fiona Bruce 33,747 59.0 +2.4
Labour Jo Dale 15,186 26.5 –7.6
Liberal Democrats Paul Duffy 6,026 10.5 +5.4
Green Richard McCarthy 1,616 2.8 +1.0
Animal Welfare Jane Smith 658 1.1 +1.1
C Majority 18,591 32.5 +10.1
2019 electorate 80,930
Turnout 57,233 70.7 –2.6
Conservative hold
Swing +5.0 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Congleton seat will consist of
86.1% of Congleton
0.3% of Eddisbury
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_231_Congleton_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 30207 | 60.6% |
| Lab | 12004 | 24.1% |
| LD | 5521 | 11.1% |
| Green | 1423 | 2.9% |
| Oth | 658 | 1.3% |
| | ||
| Majority | 18203 | 36.5% |
