Post by Robert Waller on Aug 4, 2023 12:13:03 GMT
There has been a stark difference in the development of political and electoral opinion between ‘city’ and ‘county’ constituencies in Nottinghamshire in recent decades. For example, Nottingham East was won by the Conservatives in the general elections at the height of Margaret Thatcher’s popularity in 1983 and 1987, but by December 2019 it had in effect become a very safe Labour seat, with a majority of 17,393 for its 23 year old MP, the ‘Baby of the House’, Nadia Whittome. This lead would be proof against a swing of anything less than 21.7% to the Tories. On the other hand, in 2019 the shire seats of Ashfield, Mansfield and Bassetlaw were all Conservative victories, the latter two with majorities of over 14,000. Yet in 1983 and 1987 all these three were held by Labour. The differences are linked to attitudes to the most decisive issue of the 2010s, the relationship between the UK and the EU: in the 2016 referendum it is estimated that Nottingham East voted to Remain by around 57% to 43% for Leave. Bassetlaw, Ashfield and Mansfield on the other hand voted for Leave by between 68% and 71%. Of course the differences on Brexit are themselves reflections of the contrasting characteristics of the electorate between East and the outlying parts of the county.
The neighbourhoods that make up Nottingham East have been ethnically mixed for a longer time than in many other parts of Britain. The city was one of the first destinations of what has fashionably become known as the ‘Windrush generation’ of immigrants from the Caribbean, attracted by the chance of employment in industries such as transport. There were so-called race riots in Nottingham in 1958 as well as in Notting Hill. Somewhat later there was also an influx from South Asia, mainly Pakistan, and later still from Africa. By the time of the 2021 census East (on its present boundaries, not the new lines) was reported as being 17.8% Asian and 11.4% Black, with a narrow minority, 49.7% as White British (over 9% placed themselves in the ‘White Other category). By comparison Mansfield, Ashfield and Bassetlaw were between 87% and 93% White British in 2021. Within Nottingham East, the traditional non-white residential areas have been within the wards covering St Ann’s and Hyson Green, just north-east and north-west of the city centre respectively. The two MSOAs covering St Ann’s were around 18 to 22% Black in 2021. 37% in Hyson Green were Asian, and the same figure was recorded in Forest Fields next door, due north of the city centre.
Both St Ann’s and Hyson Green & Arboretum wards are among the strongest in the whole of Nottingham for the Labour party. In the most recent city council elections, in May 2023, the Labour candidates achieved 65% of the vote in St Ann’s and 74% in Hyson Green & Arboretum. However all the other, somewhat disparate, parts of the East division have also favoured Labour recently. East of the city centre is Dales ward (the most well known ‘dale’ is the Sneinton Dale neighbourhood; it does not look at all like the dales of the adjacent county, Derbyshire), predominantly white working class. There were over 20% in elementary occupations (comparable with the figures in St Ann’s and Hyson Green) and 27% in social rented housing in Sneinton MSOA in the 2021 census. Dales ward in 2023 voted for Labour by well over three to one a solitary Green candidate and a full Conservative slate.
On the other hand, the most middle class and highly educated part of Nottingham East is Mapperley, where large houses, only some of them multi-occupied, climb the slopes in leafy avenues towards the often indistinguishable border with Gedling. Over 32% of those employed in Mapperley Park MSOA are in professional occupations. Many if these are in the public sector though – education, health, local government – and Labour won the ward by over two to one in 2023, again ahead of the Greens. The Conservatives have not won in Mapperley since 1991. Back in 1983 and 1987, when the Tory Michael Knowles won the East parliamentary seat, Mapperley was Conservative by over two to one, which made it the second strongest ward in the whole city for them after Wollaton. But urban wards with Mapperley's characteristics have moved sharply to the left in many cities in the last four decades, not just in Nottingham.
The same pattern can be seen to a slightly lesser extent in other wards in East such as Sherwood (30% professional in Sherwood Vale in the 2021 census, and 25% in North Sherwood). In Sherwood in 2023, the Labour candidates outpolled the Conservatives by over five to one; indeed the Tories were behind the Nottingham Independents and the Greens. Sherwood does not include any of the eponymous forest any more, nor does it include the site of the famed annual Goose Fair, which is at the Forest Recreation Ground in Hyson Green & Arboretum ward, and on the edges of Berridge and Mapperley. Berridge is yet another safe Labour ward, giving them over 80% in May 2023, covering the largely Victorian terraced streets of the New Basford community.
Like the other two Nottingham seats, East is currently undersized in electorate. Therefore it has been recommended to gain a ward in the forthcoming boundary changes. This is Castle, which covers the parts of the city centre not already within the boundaries - St Ann’s includes the Victoria shopping centre and Trinity Square; Hyson Green & Arboretum takes in the Theatre Royal and Trent University’s central campus, as well as the two city High Schools. Alumni include Ed Balls, Ken Clarke, Ed Davey and (Lord) David Frost as well as Jesse Boot, John Player, D H Lawrence, and Leslie Crowther of Crackerjack. Now East’s boundaries will encompass the castle itself that features in the ‘Robin Hood’ legend and films, on its crag above the venerable 'Trip to Jerusalem’ pub and also The Park, the elegant old west end of the city which now has a majority of full time students. Here too are the Old Market Square, where Nottingham folk meet ‘by the lions’, the Lace Market and the site of more modern (but closed in 2019) Broadmarsh shopping centre. Castle ward was also won by Labour in 2023, but with under half the votes cast, as this was the Liberal Democrats’ best ward in the city.
Overall the boundary changes will not in any significant way challenge Labour’s hegemony in Nottingham East. Although the arrival of Castle brings in the best Liberal Democrat ward in the city, they still lost their deposit in the 2019 general election – and that after nearly doubling their share compared with 2017. Although the Greens finished second in four of the six wards already in the East seat in May 2023 they did even worse than the LDs in the general election of December 2019 (3.0%) and only once, in 2015 (a creditable 9.9%), have they come anywhere reproducing their local election popularity; and they have only ever returned a councillor in the shape of the ex-Communist John Peck in Bulwell East within the North parliamentary division in 1995. There are some superficial similarities with Bristol, for example, such as the number of students and academics living within the city boundaries, but the Greens have not yet broken through in Nottingham.
The demographics of East are highly supportive of the Labour party. Although there are not quite as many full time students in East as in Nottingham South, this seat on new boundaries does still rank 9th on the list for England and Wales. It has an academic tone, with over 25% of over 16s studying full time, at their most concentrated around the Trent campus but spreading widely beyond, and nearly 34% already with degrees. It has the highest proportion of ethnic minority residents of the three Nottingham seats. Its housing is only a little over 40% owner occupied, and the proportion privately rented has increased between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses from under 30% to over 38%. It has many public sector workers; the huge City hospital is within its borders. The loyalty to Labour saw Chris Leslie, the former MP for nine years, garner a mere 3.6% as an Independent Group for Change candidate in December 2019, compared with 64.3% for the very young official party candidate. One suspects that she will have no problem remaining the member here for as long as she herself wishes, and retains the official imprimatur. The issue for Labour did not lie in Nottingham itself, but was whether they can recover the other seats in the county, of very different social character, that had rejected them so strikingly since the end of the Blair administrations. Because they did just that, in 2024 they could re-enter the corridors of power in Westminster.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 9.3% 549/575
Owner occupied 40.5% 542/575
Private rented 38.1% 16/575
Social rented 21.5% 121/575
White 60.3% 507/575
Black 11.0% 52/575
Asian 18.6% 66/575
Managerial & professional 23.5% 516/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.0% 338/575
Degree level 33.8% 237/575
No qualifications 17.2% 321/575
Students 25.2% 9/575
General Election 2024: Nottingham East
Labour Nadia Whittome 19,494 53.6 –9.5
Green Rosey Palmer 4,332 11.9 +8.8
Conservative Johno Lee 3,925 10.8 –10.0
Reform UK Debbie Stephens 3,578 9.8 +6.4
Workers Party Issan Ghazni 2,465 6.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Anita Prabhaker 1,741 4.8 –1.5
Independent Naveed Rashid 494 1.4 N/A
Independent Ali Khan 372 1.0 N/A
Lab Majority 15,162 41.7 −1.8
Turnout 36,401 52.5 −7.9
Registered electors 69,395
Labour hold
Swings
0.2 C to Lab
9.2 Lab to Green
General Election 2019: Nottingham East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Nadia Whittome 25,735 64.3 -7.1
Conservative Victoria Stapleton 8,342 20.9 -0.8
Liberal Democrats Robert Swift 1,954 4.9 +2.3
The Independent Group for Change Chris Leslie 1,447 3.6
Brexit Party Damian Smith 1,343 3.4
Green Michelle Vacciana 1,183 3.0 +1.2
Lab Majority 17,393 43.5 -6.4
2019 electorate 66,262
Turnout 40,004 60.4 -3.3
Labour hold Swing 3.15 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Nottingham East seat consists of
100% of Nottingham East
11.3% of Nottingham South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/EM_36_Nottingham%20East%20BC.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
The neighbourhoods that make up Nottingham East have been ethnically mixed for a longer time than in many other parts of Britain. The city was one of the first destinations of what has fashionably become known as the ‘Windrush generation’ of immigrants from the Caribbean, attracted by the chance of employment in industries such as transport. There were so-called race riots in Nottingham in 1958 as well as in Notting Hill. Somewhat later there was also an influx from South Asia, mainly Pakistan, and later still from Africa. By the time of the 2021 census East (on its present boundaries, not the new lines) was reported as being 17.8% Asian and 11.4% Black, with a narrow minority, 49.7% as White British (over 9% placed themselves in the ‘White Other category). By comparison Mansfield, Ashfield and Bassetlaw were between 87% and 93% White British in 2021. Within Nottingham East, the traditional non-white residential areas have been within the wards covering St Ann’s and Hyson Green, just north-east and north-west of the city centre respectively. The two MSOAs covering St Ann’s were around 18 to 22% Black in 2021. 37% in Hyson Green were Asian, and the same figure was recorded in Forest Fields next door, due north of the city centre.
Both St Ann’s and Hyson Green & Arboretum wards are among the strongest in the whole of Nottingham for the Labour party. In the most recent city council elections, in May 2023, the Labour candidates achieved 65% of the vote in St Ann’s and 74% in Hyson Green & Arboretum. However all the other, somewhat disparate, parts of the East division have also favoured Labour recently. East of the city centre is Dales ward (the most well known ‘dale’ is the Sneinton Dale neighbourhood; it does not look at all like the dales of the adjacent county, Derbyshire), predominantly white working class. There were over 20% in elementary occupations (comparable with the figures in St Ann’s and Hyson Green) and 27% in social rented housing in Sneinton MSOA in the 2021 census. Dales ward in 2023 voted for Labour by well over three to one a solitary Green candidate and a full Conservative slate.
On the other hand, the most middle class and highly educated part of Nottingham East is Mapperley, where large houses, only some of them multi-occupied, climb the slopes in leafy avenues towards the often indistinguishable border with Gedling. Over 32% of those employed in Mapperley Park MSOA are in professional occupations. Many if these are in the public sector though – education, health, local government – and Labour won the ward by over two to one in 2023, again ahead of the Greens. The Conservatives have not won in Mapperley since 1991. Back in 1983 and 1987, when the Tory Michael Knowles won the East parliamentary seat, Mapperley was Conservative by over two to one, which made it the second strongest ward in the whole city for them after Wollaton. But urban wards with Mapperley's characteristics have moved sharply to the left in many cities in the last four decades, not just in Nottingham.
The same pattern can be seen to a slightly lesser extent in other wards in East such as Sherwood (30% professional in Sherwood Vale in the 2021 census, and 25% in North Sherwood). In Sherwood in 2023, the Labour candidates outpolled the Conservatives by over five to one; indeed the Tories were behind the Nottingham Independents and the Greens. Sherwood does not include any of the eponymous forest any more, nor does it include the site of the famed annual Goose Fair, which is at the Forest Recreation Ground in Hyson Green & Arboretum ward, and on the edges of Berridge and Mapperley. Berridge is yet another safe Labour ward, giving them over 80% in May 2023, covering the largely Victorian terraced streets of the New Basford community.
Like the other two Nottingham seats, East is currently undersized in electorate. Therefore it has been recommended to gain a ward in the forthcoming boundary changes. This is Castle, which covers the parts of the city centre not already within the boundaries - St Ann’s includes the Victoria shopping centre and Trinity Square; Hyson Green & Arboretum takes in the Theatre Royal and Trent University’s central campus, as well as the two city High Schools. Alumni include Ed Balls, Ken Clarke, Ed Davey and (Lord) David Frost as well as Jesse Boot, John Player, D H Lawrence, and Leslie Crowther of Crackerjack. Now East’s boundaries will encompass the castle itself that features in the ‘Robin Hood’ legend and films, on its crag above the venerable 'Trip to Jerusalem’ pub and also The Park, the elegant old west end of the city which now has a majority of full time students. Here too are the Old Market Square, where Nottingham folk meet ‘by the lions’, the Lace Market and the site of more modern (but closed in 2019) Broadmarsh shopping centre. Castle ward was also won by Labour in 2023, but with under half the votes cast, as this was the Liberal Democrats’ best ward in the city.
Overall the boundary changes will not in any significant way challenge Labour’s hegemony in Nottingham East. Although the arrival of Castle brings in the best Liberal Democrat ward in the city, they still lost their deposit in the 2019 general election – and that after nearly doubling their share compared with 2017. Although the Greens finished second in four of the six wards already in the East seat in May 2023 they did even worse than the LDs in the general election of December 2019 (3.0%) and only once, in 2015 (a creditable 9.9%), have they come anywhere reproducing their local election popularity; and they have only ever returned a councillor in the shape of the ex-Communist John Peck in Bulwell East within the North parliamentary division in 1995. There are some superficial similarities with Bristol, for example, such as the number of students and academics living within the city boundaries, but the Greens have not yet broken through in Nottingham.
The demographics of East are highly supportive of the Labour party. Although there are not quite as many full time students in East as in Nottingham South, this seat on new boundaries does still rank 9th on the list for England and Wales. It has an academic tone, with over 25% of over 16s studying full time, at their most concentrated around the Trent campus but spreading widely beyond, and nearly 34% already with degrees. It has the highest proportion of ethnic minority residents of the three Nottingham seats. Its housing is only a little over 40% owner occupied, and the proportion privately rented has increased between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses from under 30% to over 38%. It has many public sector workers; the huge City hospital is within its borders. The loyalty to Labour saw Chris Leslie, the former MP for nine years, garner a mere 3.6% as an Independent Group for Change candidate in December 2019, compared with 64.3% for the very young official party candidate. One suspects that she will have no problem remaining the member here for as long as she herself wishes, and retains the official imprimatur. The issue for Labour did not lie in Nottingham itself, but was whether they can recover the other seats in the county, of very different social character, that had rejected them so strikingly since the end of the Blair administrations. Because they did just that, in 2024 they could re-enter the corridors of power in Westminster.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 9.3% 549/575
Owner occupied 40.5% 542/575
Private rented 38.1% 16/575
Social rented 21.5% 121/575
White 60.3% 507/575
Black 11.0% 52/575
Asian 18.6% 66/575
Managerial & professional 23.5% 516/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.0% 338/575
Degree level 33.8% 237/575
No qualifications 17.2% 321/575
Students 25.2% 9/575
General Election 2024: Nottingham East
Labour Nadia Whittome 19,494 53.6 –9.5
Green Rosey Palmer 4,332 11.9 +8.8
Conservative Johno Lee 3,925 10.8 –10.0
Reform UK Debbie Stephens 3,578 9.8 +6.4
Workers Party Issan Ghazni 2,465 6.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Anita Prabhaker 1,741 4.8 –1.5
Independent Naveed Rashid 494 1.4 N/A
Independent Ali Khan 372 1.0 N/A
Lab Majority 15,162 41.7 −1.8
Turnout 36,401 52.5 −7.9
Registered electors 69,395
Labour hold
Swings
0.2 C to Lab
9.2 Lab to Green
General Election 2019: Nottingham East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Nadia Whittome 25,735 64.3 -7.1
Conservative Victoria Stapleton 8,342 20.9 -0.8
Liberal Democrats Robert Swift 1,954 4.9 +2.3
The Independent Group for Change Chris Leslie 1,447 3.6
Brexit Party Damian Smith 1,343 3.4
Green Michelle Vacciana 1,183 3.0 +1.2
Lab Majority 17,393 43.5 -6.4
2019 electorate 66,262
Turnout 40,004 60.4 -3.3
Labour hold Swing 3.15 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The redrawn Nottingham East seat consists of
100% of Nottingham East
11.3% of Nottingham South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/EM_36_Nottingham%20East%20BC.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 28278 | 63.1% |
| Con | 9336 | 20.8% |
| LD | 2824 | 6.3% |
| Brexit | 1527 | 3.4% |
| Ind | 1447 | 3.2% |
| Green | 1394 | 3.1% |
| Lab Majority | 18942 | 42.3% |
