Post by Robert Waller on Aug 3, 2023 18:18:02 GMT
The constituency of Reigate is located in the eastern half of Surrey – in fact of the eleven seats in the county only East Surrey itself is further ‘to the right’ looking at a map, then after that you’re in Kent. Reigate is to the right in politics too, and essentially always has been. It has been won by the Conservatives (including when they styled themselves Unionists largely because of the prominence of the Irish issue) in every election since 1885, save the ‘Liberal landslide’ year of 1906, when they lost by just 219 votes (on an 86% turnout, by the way; those were the days).
Reigate was one of five of Surrey’s 11 constituencies that the Boundary Commission which reported in June 2023 declared to be “currently within the permitted electorate range”, but in the general shuffling caused by the other six being over quota (and also changes in ward boundaries since the previous review well over a decade ago) it has lost 14% of its electorate, mainly (10.5%) to East Surrey, while picking up in exchange 15% of Epsom & Ewell to its west. Specifically this means that the ward of Hooley, Merstham & Netherne has been lost and the wards of Nork and the whole of Tattenham Corner & Preston gained (the latter named was already in Reigate constituency). Although there will be no decisive political or electoral impact of these changes, all these areas have elements of interest.
For example, with the departure of Merstham the Reigate seat will lose one of its two pockets of social housing of any size (ironically the other is Preston near Tadworth which used to form a rather tiny ward of its own but is now included with Tattenham Corner as mentioned in the previous paragraph). However the overspill estate in the eastern part of Merstham is an untypical minority not only of the constituency as a whole (only 11% of housing is in this sector under the new boundaries) but even of Merstham itself, a flavour of which is given by its village centre and golf and cricket clubs located in its west end just off …. Quality Street. Netherne is a planned community of a very different kind, private housing built on the extensive site of the hospital which was formerly the massive Surrey County Asylum. The Hooley, Merstham & Netherne ward was decisively gained by the Greens from the Conservatives in the most recent council election in May 2023, so the Reigate constituency Tories might not be entirely concerned to see it go.
On the other hand, the wards being added to the Reigate seat also do not have a recent history of Tory success in fact both Nork and Tattenham Corner, known for its proximity to the famous Epsom racecourse up on the airy North Downs, have been Residents candidates strongholds for decades, although in 2023 the Conservatives did at least finish second in both these wards among the full slates of parties trailing in the localists’ wake. Given their owner occupied and middle class demographics, it is fair to assume that these accessions from Epsom & Ewell have strongly supported the victorious Tories there in parliamentary terms.
There is a tendency that some think regrettable to lengthen the names of constituencies by satisfying, or appeasing, the claims of a number of communities within them. Despite comprising the bulk of the Reigate and Banstead borough council area, this seat retains a plain single word title. Even though it would now be more justified to include Banstead, as these two wards were previously, up to the 1970s, in Banstead Urban District Council. Another place that might have a case for recognition in the name is Redhill, adjacent to Reigate and of a similar size, and being honoured by the RH postcode. Still, plain Reigate it remains, which will no doubt be a relief to the aforementioned critics of the Commission’s nomenclature.
There have been some interesting local results within the core of this constituency unaffected by the boundary changes. For example in May 2023, in addition to their success in the departing Hooley etc, the Greens held Earlswood & Whitebushes and Redhill East, with a convincing 58% and a massive 71% respectively (and this against a full range of the other parties). The Liberal Democrats retained Meadvale & St John’s (the south eastern quadrant of the town of Reigate). Labour also returned to the council by gaining Redhill West & Wray Common. The Conservative held South Park & Woodhatch (Reigate SW) in 2023 but the two previous contests in that ward had also seen Green victories; and the Liberal Democrats compete strongly in the core (central) Reigate ward.
However all thus variation in municipal results should not disguise the overall Conservative strength in the constituency; in fact for all he varied losses this was actually the only borough/district level council in the whole of Surrey where the Tories maintained overall control in May 2023. Neither local election results nor the exact boundaries nor of course the name do not affect the electoral outcome in the Reigate division, which remains very solidly Conservative, held since 1997 by the independently minded ex army officer Crispin Blunt. It is true that when Blunt first won, he had to deal with the incumbent, the long-serving right-wing Sir George Gardiner, who had been deselected in 1996, for example for comparing John Major to a ventriloquist's dummy for the government's pro-European Chancellor Kenneth Clarke, and in March 1997 he had defected to James Goldsmith’s Referendum Party, thus becoming its only ever sitting MP (for just two weeks). But Gardiner finished fourth with only 7% of the vote in 1997. Blunt was not seriously challenged in elections since, either. In 2019 the Liberal Democrats increased their share, but by less than in some other Surrey seats, and were actually still third, just 35 votes behind Labour. This even division of the opposition makes the Conservative grip on Reigate look even stronger and actually be even stronger, because it discourages tactical voting. Although the Green party does have a fair bit success on the local council, they were in fourth place when the parliamentary seat was at stake in December 2019, just saving their deposit with 6%. Crispin Blunt is standing down at the next election, but there should be no problem in securing the succession for Tadworth, Walton & Kingswood ward councillor Rebecca Paul.
Why is Reigate so safely Conservative? It is affluent, strongly professional and managerial, in the top 40 seats for these categories, in the bottom 50 for ‘routine’ occupations. There is a substantial rural ambience attractive to London outer commuters, and it has no tradition of Liberal Democrat strength at local or Westminster elections. Although estimated to have narrowly preferred ‘Remain’ in 2016, it was not targeted by the Lib Dems in 2019 as Esher & Walton was, for example; and a less cash-rich party has to husband its resources. This is very attractive territory, with population centres like Reigate nestling between ridges in the North Downs, but close to the M25 as it cuts through those hills. There are some very good schools and the property prices are steep. Some housing, such as in Kingswood, is very expensive indeed. All in all, Reigate voters tend to see no reason to disrupt their comfortable lives and livings; and there is no sign of this changing.
This may come as a (probably minor) disappointment to one old boy of Reigate Grammar School, probably the best known of those high-reputation local schools, not least because of the efforts of its dynamic current headmaster Shaun Fenton (the son of glam rock singer Alvin Stardust, no less). Among its products are DJ Fatboy Slim, Bill Frindall (the most famous of all cricket scorers), Trevor Kavanagh (for decades the highly influential Political Editor of the Sun newspaper), Ray Mears (survival expert), Romesh Ranganathan (comedian), Andrew Sullivan (political commentator and blogger) and David Walliams (actor and children’s writer). Some of those skills may be useful for the Old Boy in question, though he probably would not be mistaken for a comedian: Sir Keir Starmer has an excellent chance of becoming the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but it is highly unlikely that he will find the MP for his secondary school’s seat sitting anywhere else but on the opposition benches.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.4% 322/575
Owner occupied 73.1% 97/575
Private rented 15.8% 399/575
Social rented 11.1% 474/575
White 84.0% 370/575
Black 2.8% 190/575
Asian 8.0% 198/575
Managerial & professional 45.2% 39/575
Routine & Semi-routine 14.9% 528/575
Degree level 42.4% 87/575
No qualifications 12.6% 519/575
Students 5.4% 321/575
General Election 2019: Reigate
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Crispin Blunt 28,665 53.9 –3.5
Labour Susan Gregory 10,355 19.5 –5.2
Liberal Democrats John Vincent 10,320 19.4 +8.5
Green Jonathan Essex 3,169 6.0 +1.8
UKIP Julia Searle 647 1.2 –1.6
C Majority 18,310 34.4 +1.7
Turnout 53,156 71.0 –1.1
Conservative hold
Swings +0.9 Lab to C, +6.0 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The Reigate seat will consist of
85.8% of Reigate
15.1% of Epsom & Ewell
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_353_Reigate_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 (Rallings & Thrasher)
Reigate was one of five of Surrey’s 11 constituencies that the Boundary Commission which reported in June 2023 declared to be “currently within the permitted electorate range”, but in the general shuffling caused by the other six being over quota (and also changes in ward boundaries since the previous review well over a decade ago) it has lost 14% of its electorate, mainly (10.5%) to East Surrey, while picking up in exchange 15% of Epsom & Ewell to its west. Specifically this means that the ward of Hooley, Merstham & Netherne has been lost and the wards of Nork and the whole of Tattenham Corner & Preston gained (the latter named was already in Reigate constituency). Although there will be no decisive political or electoral impact of these changes, all these areas have elements of interest.
For example, with the departure of Merstham the Reigate seat will lose one of its two pockets of social housing of any size (ironically the other is Preston near Tadworth which used to form a rather tiny ward of its own but is now included with Tattenham Corner as mentioned in the previous paragraph). However the overspill estate in the eastern part of Merstham is an untypical minority not only of the constituency as a whole (only 11% of housing is in this sector under the new boundaries) but even of Merstham itself, a flavour of which is given by its village centre and golf and cricket clubs located in its west end just off …. Quality Street. Netherne is a planned community of a very different kind, private housing built on the extensive site of the hospital which was formerly the massive Surrey County Asylum. The Hooley, Merstham & Netherne ward was decisively gained by the Greens from the Conservatives in the most recent council election in May 2023, so the Reigate constituency Tories might not be entirely concerned to see it go.
On the other hand, the wards being added to the Reigate seat also do not have a recent history of Tory success in fact both Nork and Tattenham Corner, known for its proximity to the famous Epsom racecourse up on the airy North Downs, have been Residents candidates strongholds for decades, although in 2023 the Conservatives did at least finish second in both these wards among the full slates of parties trailing in the localists’ wake. Given their owner occupied and middle class demographics, it is fair to assume that these accessions from Epsom & Ewell have strongly supported the victorious Tories there in parliamentary terms.
There is a tendency that some think regrettable to lengthen the names of constituencies by satisfying, or appeasing, the claims of a number of communities within them. Despite comprising the bulk of the Reigate and Banstead borough council area, this seat retains a plain single word title. Even though it would now be more justified to include Banstead, as these two wards were previously, up to the 1970s, in Banstead Urban District Council. Another place that might have a case for recognition in the name is Redhill, adjacent to Reigate and of a similar size, and being honoured by the RH postcode. Still, plain Reigate it remains, which will no doubt be a relief to the aforementioned critics of the Commission’s nomenclature.
There have been some interesting local results within the core of this constituency unaffected by the boundary changes. For example in May 2023, in addition to their success in the departing Hooley etc, the Greens held Earlswood & Whitebushes and Redhill East, with a convincing 58% and a massive 71% respectively (and this against a full range of the other parties). The Liberal Democrats retained Meadvale & St John’s (the south eastern quadrant of the town of Reigate). Labour also returned to the council by gaining Redhill West & Wray Common. The Conservative held South Park & Woodhatch (Reigate SW) in 2023 but the two previous contests in that ward had also seen Green victories; and the Liberal Democrats compete strongly in the core (central) Reigate ward.
However all thus variation in municipal results should not disguise the overall Conservative strength in the constituency; in fact for all he varied losses this was actually the only borough/district level council in the whole of Surrey where the Tories maintained overall control in May 2023. Neither local election results nor the exact boundaries nor of course the name do not affect the electoral outcome in the Reigate division, which remains very solidly Conservative, held since 1997 by the independently minded ex army officer Crispin Blunt. It is true that when Blunt first won, he had to deal with the incumbent, the long-serving right-wing Sir George Gardiner, who had been deselected in 1996, for example for comparing John Major to a ventriloquist's dummy for the government's pro-European Chancellor Kenneth Clarke, and in March 1997 he had defected to James Goldsmith’s Referendum Party, thus becoming its only ever sitting MP (for just two weeks). But Gardiner finished fourth with only 7% of the vote in 1997. Blunt was not seriously challenged in elections since, either. In 2019 the Liberal Democrats increased their share, but by less than in some other Surrey seats, and were actually still third, just 35 votes behind Labour. This even division of the opposition makes the Conservative grip on Reigate look even stronger and actually be even stronger, because it discourages tactical voting. Although the Green party does have a fair bit success on the local council, they were in fourth place when the parliamentary seat was at stake in December 2019, just saving their deposit with 6%. Crispin Blunt is standing down at the next election, but there should be no problem in securing the succession for Tadworth, Walton & Kingswood ward councillor Rebecca Paul.
Why is Reigate so safely Conservative? It is affluent, strongly professional and managerial, in the top 40 seats for these categories, in the bottom 50 for ‘routine’ occupations. There is a substantial rural ambience attractive to London outer commuters, and it has no tradition of Liberal Democrat strength at local or Westminster elections. Although estimated to have narrowly preferred ‘Remain’ in 2016, it was not targeted by the Lib Dems in 2019 as Esher & Walton was, for example; and a less cash-rich party has to husband its resources. This is very attractive territory, with population centres like Reigate nestling between ridges in the North Downs, but close to the M25 as it cuts through those hills. There are some very good schools and the property prices are steep. Some housing, such as in Kingswood, is very expensive indeed. All in all, Reigate voters tend to see no reason to disrupt their comfortable lives and livings; and there is no sign of this changing.
This may come as a (probably minor) disappointment to one old boy of Reigate Grammar School, probably the best known of those high-reputation local schools, not least because of the efforts of its dynamic current headmaster Shaun Fenton (the son of glam rock singer Alvin Stardust, no less). Among its products are DJ Fatboy Slim, Bill Frindall (the most famous of all cricket scorers), Trevor Kavanagh (for decades the highly influential Political Editor of the Sun newspaper), Ray Mears (survival expert), Romesh Ranganathan (comedian), Andrew Sullivan (political commentator and blogger) and David Walliams (actor and children’s writer). Some of those skills may be useful for the Old Boy in question, though he probably would not be mistaken for a comedian: Sir Keir Starmer has an excellent chance of becoming the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but it is highly unlikely that he will find the MP for his secondary school’s seat sitting anywhere else but on the opposition benches.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.4% 322/575
Owner occupied 73.1% 97/575
Private rented 15.8% 399/575
Social rented 11.1% 474/575
White 84.0% 370/575
Black 2.8% 190/575
Asian 8.0% 198/575
Managerial & professional 45.2% 39/575
Routine & Semi-routine 14.9% 528/575
Degree level 42.4% 87/575
No qualifications 12.6% 519/575
Students 5.4% 321/575
General Election 2019: Reigate
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Crispin Blunt 28,665 53.9 –3.5
Labour Susan Gregory 10,355 19.5 –5.2
Liberal Democrats John Vincent 10,320 19.4 +8.5
Green Jonathan Essex 3,169 6.0 +1.8
UKIP Julia Searle 647 1.2 –1.6
C Majority 18,310 34.4 +1.7
Turnout 53,156 71.0 –1.1
Conservative hold
Swings +0.9 Lab to C, +6.0 C to LD
Boundary Changes
The Reigate seat will consist of
85.8% of Reigate
15.1% of Epsom & Ewell
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_353_Reigate_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 29846 | 55.8% |
| LD | 10626 | 19.9% |
| Lab | 9045 | 16.9% |
| Grn | 3092 | 5.8% |
| Oths | 860 | 1.6% |
| Majority | 19220 | 36.0% |
